I am beginning to wonder whether the CSA, if it had somehow seceded from the United States, could survive under its own internal pressures and problems, combined with a large unfriendly neighbor to the North.
I see several problems with the Confederate States which would possibly impair their continued existence:
1. Slavery. The Confederate States is ideologically married to the concept of slavery, and goes so far as to embed it in its own constitution. However, slavery means a huge social price against poor farmers without slaves and is likely to hinder the CSA's industrial development. Slavery is going to antagonize global relations towards the CSA and its also going to become a menace to organized labor as well.
2. Finances. Where is the CSA going to acquire revenues? The main crop of the CSA is cotton--but cotton prices are only heading downwards from the 1860s on. Throw in that the CSA will have to protect itself with a large standing army to hold off a US army of considerable size, and this means a military industrial complex race that the CSA can not hope to win.
3. Internal Disputes. Without even considering what Maryland, Kentucky and Missouri would cause the CSA in internal disputes, half of Tennessee and several counties had already attempted to secede from the CSA. On what grounds can the CSA stop this counter-secession? And there's more--what stops states in the CSA from seceding again if they disagree with 'federal' policy?
4. Demographics. The CSA didn't have anywhere near the immigration that the USA did OTL, and while some level of 'nativist' movement might restrict that, there are also going to be many "poor whites" moving north to seek a better life without slaveholders mucking up the labor market. How can the CSA cope with a slave population increasing in proportion to the free white population? And how can it cope as the USA increases in numbers and economic strengths against it?
I guess I wonder whether there would even be a need for a second civil war, or whether the CSA would simply start to collapse shortly after its own creation. How could the CSA address these questions and remain an independent state?
I see several problems with the Confederate States which would possibly impair their continued existence:
1. Slavery. The Confederate States is ideologically married to the concept of slavery, and goes so far as to embed it in its own constitution. However, slavery means a huge social price against poor farmers without slaves and is likely to hinder the CSA's industrial development. Slavery is going to antagonize global relations towards the CSA and its also going to become a menace to organized labor as well.
2. Finances. Where is the CSA going to acquire revenues? The main crop of the CSA is cotton--but cotton prices are only heading downwards from the 1860s on. Throw in that the CSA will have to protect itself with a large standing army to hold off a US army of considerable size, and this means a military industrial complex race that the CSA can not hope to win.
3. Internal Disputes. Without even considering what Maryland, Kentucky and Missouri would cause the CSA in internal disputes, half of Tennessee and several counties had already attempted to secede from the CSA. On what grounds can the CSA stop this counter-secession? And there's more--what stops states in the CSA from seceding again if they disagree with 'federal' policy?
4. Demographics. The CSA didn't have anywhere near the immigration that the USA did OTL, and while some level of 'nativist' movement might restrict that, there are also going to be many "poor whites" moving north to seek a better life without slaveholders mucking up the labor market. How can the CSA cope with a slave population increasing in proportion to the free white population? And how can it cope as the USA increases in numbers and economic strengths against it?
I guess I wonder whether there would even be a need for a second civil war, or whether the CSA would simply start to collapse shortly after its own creation. How could the CSA address these questions and remain an independent state?