Confederate State of...Sao Paulo?

i just heard on Historum that, after the ACW, 10,000 confederates refused to accept returning to the union and instead emigrated to sao paulo, brazil, where their descendants live to this day

this is probably ASB, but what's the plausibility of a CSA-like state emerging in brazil from these descendants, even if its not really in sao paulo?
 
i just heard on Historum that, after the ACW, 10,000 confederates refused to accept returning to the union and instead emigrated to sao paulo, brazil, where their descendants live to this day

this is probably ASB, but what's the plausibility of a CSA-like state emerging in brazil from these descendants, even if its not really in sao paulo?

Um...nil. I doubt the Confederados would ever have enough support, military or otherwise, to establish a state on their own. I could see if they had enough wealth/influence/whatever in the Brazilian government, they could attempt to recreate a pro-slavery breakaway state a la the Confederacy in the US, but that's pretty much ASB, since I doubt the popular support for a foreigner-backed breakaway state would be great enough to make it a plausible movement.
 
The main thing to make this remotely plausible would be if way, WAY more confederates went to Brazil in the first place. Maybe if there was a harsher, more punitive reconstruction period that left the South seeming like an occupied territory for a long time, combined with more of a commitment to racial equality that made the Southerners feel like their slaves were taking over a lot of southerners could be driven out.
 
i just heard on Historum that, after the ACW, 10,000 confederates refused to accept returning to the union and instead emigrated to sao paulo, brazil, where their descendants live to this day

this is probably ASB, but what's the plausibility of a CSA-like state emerging in brazil from these descendants, even if its not really in sao paulo?

Between zero and none; far into the oort clouds at the edge of ASB-space.
 
The main thing to make this remotely plausible would be if way, WAY more confederates went to Brazil in the first place. Maybe if there was a harsher, more punitive reconstruction period that left the South seeming like an occupied territory for a long time, combined with more of a commitment to racial equality that made the Southerners feel like their slaves were taking over a lot of southerners could be driven out.

Not even then. The Brazilians will easily defeat any attempt by Confederate refugees to carve out an independent state. The Brazilian Army was quite strong in this time period, having fought the War of the Triple Alliance in 1864-1870. Any Confederados stupid enough to challenge the Brazilian government are going to be crushed.
 
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