alternatehistory.com

The bulk of American wealth and power for most of its history from the Civil War to the mid-20th century was the American North and American West. These were the areas where most growth occurred and most immigration directed itself.

Let's say the Confederates succeed in breaking away, but Tennessee, Northern Virginia, Northern Arkansas, and the Florida Keys remain American (ergo and 1862/1863 peace) and the Mississippi River is declared an international waterway.

How powerful is the US in this situation? I imagine it'd dominate its politically unstable southern neighbor pretty handily even without direct reconquest. The US here probably will be more incentivized to maintain a larger standing army and larger Navy and could probably afford to do so with the money that it historically spent on reconstruction going toward the military here.

If Grant is US President here, the US may end up with Santo Domingo TTL, which has the plus of giving the US a significant naval center but the downside of having an insurgency to handle for a short while.
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