Confederate disaster at Shiloh

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In the ACW, the Confederates came close to beating the Union army under Grant at Shiloh, prior to Union reinforcements arriving.

Suppose that instead of the Confederates have some initial success, the battle turns out to be a disaster all over.

In OTL, out of around 40 thousand troops, the CSA lost around 11 thousand, while the Union lost around 13 thousand out of around 60 thousand or so.

Assume that Grant mounts a better defense, and has some early warning that he acts upon, and Johnston walks right into him. Result, 25 thousand Confederates lost compared to only say 6 thousand Union losses. Still quite high, but much more in favor of the Union.

Prior to and up to this battle, everything else is the same as OTL, ie the fighting in Virginia is either going for the CSA or is stalemated.
 
If Johnston walks into an ambush that looses most of his Army from a resounding Union voctory. The result would be an entire year shaved off of the Western Theatre.

Grant would still be the head of his Army as his casualties at Shiloh would be reduced or more overlooked due to decisive victory. He would continue the march overland to Corinth later in April. Other Union forces would continue to campain in western Tennessee to Memphis.

After Corinth, the Grant's Army would head to Vicksburg. Would later meet up with forces that captured New Orleans and have the entire Mississippi in Union hads in 1862.

The Confederates may still try their late summer/fall offensive into Kentucky to no avail. They are checked by Rosecrans or Buell.

Rosecrans/Buell from the North and Grant from the West then converge on Chatanooga in late 1862. After Chatanooga, Grant is made top commander in West. Grant plans to campaign against Atlanta, he appoints Sherman as head of Butler's Army and has him slash through Mississippi and Alabama to Montgomery covering one of his flanks. He has Rosecrans as a smaller force to capture Knoxville and then come back to Chatanooga to campaign against Northern and Alabama.

Grant takes Atlanta in early July 1863 as Meade is victorious at Gettysburg. Grant then advances to Savanah and captures it in December of '63. Sherman captures Montgomery in fall of 1863, his next goal is Mobile which he captures in early '64.

The West is mopped up by the start of 1864 campaining season.

Grant is now commander in chief over Union Armies. He tries a different overland campaign than OTL.

For the '64 campaign, he comes to the East. His plan is to engage Lee all summer long as Sherman comes up from the South with two armies instead of one as in OTL.

Sherman is transported to Savanah where . He will form a two prong attack into the Carolinas, one prong more along the appalachians while the other Army hugs the coast. Rosecrans/Buell/Thomas is left to deal with whatever arises in the west. Butler is still in New Orleans, may lead joint Naval/Army offensive and land somewhere in Texas (more dermined effort than OTL). Meade is to hold Lee in Vaginia, keep him engaged as two armies come up on him from the South.

Grant detaches Sheridan in May/June of '64 to mop up the Sheandoah prior to Early's raid as he hammers Lee from the North, keeps constant contact. Maybe more jabs than hooks.

By the fall of 1864, Lee is penned up around Richmond by Meade from the North, Sherman Army one from the South West, Sherman Army two from the South, Army of the James from the East, Sheridan from the North West.

Game over for the Confederacy as Lincln wins election, they surrender soon afterwards, December 1864.
 
Off the top of my head, this could be very fortuitous for the North. If the AoM is devastated as a fighting force (and the >50% casualties you propose, over 2x OTL, is pretty damned devastating!) then Grant gains notoriety sooner than OTL and the AotT and AotO are in good position to secure the Miss even sooner. Now the AoM has >20,000 meaning that a few regiments added to the AotO means they are capable of checking the AoM alone, allowing the AotT free reign in the west. Time to march towards V'burg?
 
The problem is that there is more than ample early warning of the Confederates being close by, in force and preparing for some kind of offensive but Grant ignored it.

Grant arrived at Pittsburg Landing and encamped his forces in the most haphazard fashion imaginable. He was awaiting the arrival of Don Carlos Buell's Amy of the Ohio and was training his men but he ignored the reports of his enemy and their movements and made no attempt to fortify his positions.

Meanwhile A.S. Johnston and P.G.T. Beauregad had assembled and trained a major Army only about a 20 miles southwest of Grant and got within 3 miles of the encamped Federal Army without the Federals realising they were there.

Though poorly armed and lacking battle experience this was a major Confederate Army that was a distinct threat to Grant and one that could have, had it crushed the Army of the Tennessee at Shiloh, succored the Tennessee River for a few months and invaded Kentucky, taking the War to the North.

Grant's lackadaisical attitude towards his enemy and knowing of his enemies movements put his army in real danger and almost cost him his whole career early on.

Only the failure of Beauregard to both follow A.S. Johnston's original plan and to drive Grant away from the river, as well as some brave and admirable fighting by the Federal troops, save Grant and his Army at Shiloh.

What you need for a total disasterous Confederate defeat, really, is for Grant to fortify his positions around Pittsburg Landing but this requires such a change in personallity for Grant that its almost ASB.
 
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