How whould these turn out to end up for the Confederacy? Spanish-Confederate War? Confederate-Nicragugian War? WW1? WW2?Andean War? War on Terror?Iraqi War? Race Relations? Alliances? Military?
Confederacy
- Thread starter ConfederateFly
- Start date
ConfederateFly said:
Ah, good ol' ConfederateFly, so dependable and so free of the fear of butterflies...
ConfederateFly said:
Narrow victory, if the dammnYankees and the {@*!:} British don't get involved...
ConfederateFly said:
Lovely little war. (See above).
ConfederateFly said:
Depends on what side they're on.
B_Munro said:
Heh heh. A good point.
Do you think that the CSA would be able to afford such wars? Even a victorious CSA in the ACW probably couldn't afford it.
WW1 is a possibility, although it depends on the way the CSA got independance. If France and Britian helped, than it may go with them and the USA may go into the arms of the Kaiser, which would almost certainly lead to a complete victory for the USA and Germany. That's the most interesting scenario in my opinion, but the CSA would probably become isolationist.
(Just a thought, if Britain/France/CSA lose the Great War to the USA/Germany, how likely is it that the USA will reabsorb the Confederacy?)
David S Poepoe
Banned
ConfederateFly said:
You of all people you know how many times this WI appears in the archives.
Most likely results:
Spanish-Confederate War: Defeat. Compared with Spain, the Confederacy is a fourth rate power until the 1900s.
Confederate-Nicragugian War: Victory. There is no country called Nicragugian, so its an automatic Confederate victory. The Nicragugians fail to show up (did anyone tell them that someone had declared war upon them?), so the Confederacy wins by default.
WW1: Draw. The barely industrialized Confederacy wins the war by remaining neutral - or they declare war on the Central Powers in 1918 once the war is going against them.
WW2: Draw. The still barely industrialized Confederacy wins the war by continueing to remain neutral - or they declare war on the Axis Powers in 1944 once the war is going against them.
Andean War: Victory. Everybody loves Andean Mints, the cool refreshing taste of chocolate and mint.
War of Terror: Honorable mention. They win by just being part of Western Civilization.
Iraqi War: Honorable mention. They dispatch their entire navy, two cutters, to aid the United States Navy in patrolling the Persian Gulf.
Race Relations: Nobody likes the lizards.
Alliances: International Postal Union, United Nations, etc.
Military: Mostly weekend warriors that are called up for duty by the state governors. Mobilization by Ford pickup trucks with rifle racks in the cabin. Red neck optional.
What I always wondered is if it is possible for the Confederacy to actually become a threat to the United States. i mean, at the end of the Civil War they has most of their industry put to torch and they were pretty much ripping at the seams, even with a quicker Civil War, what you'd get is a nation that prides itself on slavery and the romantic southern image, of coloreds working in the fields, happy plantation owners drinking lemonade on thier porches and all that nonsense.
They were pretty much and agricultural society that scrambled to industrialization when they were threatened. But does that mean they'll keep pushing for industriy or lapse back in the good old times. The threat to the north has been neutralized and everyone can go home.
There would be no real need for rapid, heavy industrialization. Even if trade was cut off with the North they'd still have trade with England and the rest of Europe, which would supply them with tools, machines, and all the goodies they need in exchange for cotton and whatever else they make.
You'd have a wealthy coalition of slave holders and cotton owners that make sure they stay where they are and not move forward. What you'll get is another Mexico or Brazil. A poor nation with the rich crushing the poorer and the poorer crushing the coloreds. Heavy Agriculture and little industrialization.
even with heavy help from European nations, it'd still be a up hill battle. i doubt Europe wants a Power across the ocean, but they still want a thorn in the USA's side. which means they'll give enough, but not enough to make them strong.
Come WWI or some other war, the US will just steamroll them. They have the manpower, they have the undustry, and they have the desire to crush their Southern Neighbor. I'll be Turtledove's Great War, but with the south collapsing a lot faster, two years tops.
just my 2.1 cents
They were pretty much and agricultural society that scrambled to industrialization when they were threatened. But does that mean they'll keep pushing for industriy or lapse back in the good old times. The threat to the north has been neutralized and everyone can go home.
There would be no real need for rapid, heavy industrialization. Even if trade was cut off with the North they'd still have trade with England and the rest of Europe, which would supply them with tools, machines, and all the goodies they need in exchange for cotton and whatever else they make.
You'd have a wealthy coalition of slave holders and cotton owners that make sure they stay where they are and not move forward. What you'll get is another Mexico or Brazil. A poor nation with the rich crushing the poorer and the poorer crushing the coloreds. Heavy Agriculture and little industrialization.
even with heavy help from European nations, it'd still be a up hill battle. i doubt Europe wants a Power across the ocean, but they still want a thorn in the USA's side. which means they'll give enough, but not enough to make them strong.
Come WWI or some other war, the US will just steamroll them. They have the manpower, they have the undustry, and they have the desire to crush their Southern Neighbor. I'll be Turtledove's Great War, but with the south collapsing a lot faster, two years tops.
just my 2.1 cents
Good point! If the Confederacy is to surviuve as something of a power, their victory will have to come rather late, but not so late that most of the country is razed. Say, we have some kind of victory around late '63 - that would be late enought to show Richmond, that the CSA is a fragile place, yes? In that case, I think, we can see the various states being forced to cooperate more closely by the increasingly centralized confederated state.Psychomeltdown said:
Regarding the lapse back to the good old days. Hmm, something happens to people when they have been away at war! I find it hard to believe that the people who just fought tooth and nail to keep the CSA independent will accept to be kept in the political dark, plowing their small lots out in the countryside.
A small state can drag itself up by the bootstrap if it really wants to - Denmark have done so a few times after one of our numerous unsuccessful wars. I think it's resonable to see a rather advanced arms industry spring up and a naval ditto. One thing the Confeds will have learned is that they need guns, guns, more guns and a lot of ships to keep them supplied. We might actually see a Prussian-style rebirth of the nation (there must be coal and iron somewhere in the proximity of the CSA), wiht huge steel works, extensive rail-roads, ship-yards and armament factories (and an increasing debt, naturally, but God bless the British and French bankers
). Best regards!
- Mr.B.
Mr.Bluenote said:Good point! If the Confederacy is to surviuve as something of a power, their victory will have to come rather late, but not so late that most of the country is razed. Say, we have some kind of victory around late '63 - that would be late enought to show Richmond, that the CSA is a fragile place, yes? In that case, I think, we can see the various states being forced to cooperate more closely by the increasingly centralized confederated state.
Regarding the lapse back to the good old days. Hmm, something happens to people when they have been away at war! I find it hard to believe that the people who just fought tooth and nail to keep the CSA independent will accept to be kept in the political dark, plowing their small lots out in the countryside.
A small state can drag itself up by the bootstrap if it really wants to - Denmark have done so a few times after one of our numerous unsuccessful wars. I think it's resonable to see a rather advanced arms industry spring up and a naval ditto. One thing the Confeds will have learned is that they need guns, guns, more guns and a lot of ships to keep them supplied. We might actually see a Prussian-style rebirth of the nation (there must be coal and iron somewhere in the proximity of the CSA), wiht huge steel works, extensive rail-roads, ship-yards and armament factories (and an increasing debt, naturally, but God bless the British and French bankers
Best regards!
- Mr.B.
All in all I agree with you, except on one point. They need not have a huge debt to British and French bankers, at least not in the long term. The Confederacy has the potential for a very profitable textiles industry. Locally produced raw materials would give Confederate textiles a strong competitive advantage over those of other countries, and it is very reasonable to see the Confederacy capturing a major share of the world textiles trade within a couple of decades after the war. And, if the Confederacy builds up it's own steel and arms industries...which it would certainly have to do...the products of those industries are exportable too. So yes, there would be a debt for a while, but it would not be a permanent fixture of the Confederate economic outlook.
I have to agree with you on this point. Personally, I think an Anglo-French embargo against the Confederates is an idea that people who absolutely hate Confederate victory ATLs came up with. The USA did not put an embargo on South Africa even though SA's policies were blatantly racist. It doesn't matter if SA was a good source of chromium. It doesn't matter to the US that Saudi Arabians are big funders of terrorist organizations. The US still buys oil from the Saudis, even though we have ample reserves to tap into in the Gulf of Mexico. The same would work with the Confederacy. Egyptian cotton may be cheaper, but the British could just as easily play realpolitik against the USA by supporting the Confederate textiles industry just to keep the USA and the CSA from ever working together in the name of the Monroe Doctrine.
Another point is that the Confederacy had the resources to build up an ample steel industry and, later, a petroleum industry. Though the Confederacy doesn't have the industrial mind of the Union, I don't see them staying a fourth-rate power purely for economic reasons. They'd more than likely be on the level of Italy, but with a better military. It is for this reason why I think the Spanish couldn't stand a chance against the Confederates if the Spanish-American War goes off without the influence of butterflies.
The explosion of a battleship would generate quite a bit of sympathy in the Northern press thirty years after the war. Unless Confederate politicians are incredibly stupid following the War of Secession, they'll know that keeping the US a friend north of their border is just as important as keeping the United Kingdom an important trading partner overseas. The South should have a better navy than anything the Spanish could throw at them.
Whether their army is up to task is another matter entirely. The Japanese were still able to win the Russo-Japanese War (with a bit of help from Teddy Roosevelt) even though their army wasn't a match for the Russians.
As far as the Nicaragua question, it's one of those "why bother?" scenarios. The Confederacy really would have no reason to invade Nicaragua for the purpose of canal building because they DON'T HAVE A PACIFIC COAST! I don't see them acquiring a Pacific coast either, no matter what divergences Turtledove can cook up.
As far as WWI goes, I say the Confederacy stays out of it at first and waits to see which side will give the better offer. As far as I'm concerned, they'd probably fight on the side of the Union. If the Union is on the side of Germany, the Confederates stand a chance to flex their naval muscle in the Caribbean while the US is involved in Canada. They will probably take the Bahamas and a few other islands before the Royal Navy responds. The Confederates will probably realize just as quickly as the Germans did just how valuable the submarine is.
With WWII, assuming there is one, that's anyone's guess.
Another point is that the Confederacy had the resources to build up an ample steel industry and, later, a petroleum industry. Though the Confederacy doesn't have the industrial mind of the Union, I don't see them staying a fourth-rate power purely for economic reasons. They'd more than likely be on the level of Italy, but with a better military. It is for this reason why I think the Spanish couldn't stand a chance against the Confederates if the Spanish-American War goes off without the influence of butterflies.
The explosion of a battleship would generate quite a bit of sympathy in the Northern press thirty years after the war. Unless Confederate politicians are incredibly stupid following the War of Secession, they'll know that keeping the US a friend north of their border is just as important as keeping the United Kingdom an important trading partner overseas. The South should have a better navy than anything the Spanish could throw at them.
Whether their army is up to task is another matter entirely. The Japanese were still able to win the Russo-Japanese War (with a bit of help from Teddy Roosevelt) even though their army wasn't a match for the Russians.
As far as the Nicaragua question, it's one of those "why bother?" scenarios. The Confederacy really would have no reason to invade Nicaragua for the purpose of canal building because they DON'T HAVE A PACIFIC COAST! I don't see them acquiring a Pacific coast either, no matter what divergences Turtledove can cook up.
As far as WWI goes, I say the Confederacy stays out of it at first and waits to see which side will give the better offer. As far as I'm concerned, they'd probably fight on the side of the Union. If the Union is on the side of Germany, the Confederates stand a chance to flex their naval muscle in the Caribbean while the US is involved in Canada. They will probably take the Bahamas and a few other islands before the Royal Navy responds. The Confederates will probably realize just as quickly as the Germans did just how valuable the submarine is.
With WWII, assuming there is one, that's anyone's guess.
David S Poepoe
Banned
Psychomeltdown said:
Utter Nonsense! They would be drinking MINT JULEPS, not lemonade. Where did all this temperance stuff come from, but the North.
David S Poepoe
Banned
Ace Venom said:I gotta agree with that one. Dry laws would only occur on state or county levels. One state that would never pass dry laws would be Louisiana. We drink beer like some people drink coffee or tea.
Are you sure you don't mean water?
A strong CSA is a contradiction in terms. A period of postwar tension between USA and CSA gives way to the South Deconstruction where the South loses border states that are soon reabsorbed into the US and Texas which becomes its own nation. The remaining rump CSA is isolationist, flaky and economically stagnant. No military adventure.
David S Poepoe said:
Well, yeah.
And Tom, the same could have been said about the pre-Constitution USA. Look at how that place turned out compared to what it had been. Texas breaking off is probably one of the most absurd things I see in ATL post-CSA victory. The Texans might have used the threat of secession to their advantage, but I don't see Texas actually seceding unless the Confederate government tried to abolish slavery, which it did not have the power to do in the first place. Nevermind the fact that LA, AL, MS, GA, FL and SC would secede as well.
And if Texas did try to secede, who's to say the Confederates wouldn't try to put down that little rebellion? It's easy to talk about the rights of states when you are fighting against the Union, but when you are the government, economic interests ALWAYS surpass Constitutional ideals.
Straha
Banned
a confederate victory would ensure that power politics in north america became europeanized. The USA would become a europeanized garrison state with conscription. The CSA would end up on that same path. The USA would aqquiere overseas areas and add them to the USA, unlike most other colonial powers the USA will incorporate its colonies as states eventually. Yucatan,the phillipines,samoa,Haiti,santo domingo,puerto rico,guam and other lands would fall under american rule. The British empire would end up giving away bermuda,bahamas,jamaica and trinidad to the USA post WWI in lieu of paying debts since America wouldn't be headed by a humanitarian idealist like Woodrow Wilson. The treaty of versailles would include germany ceding zanzibar,Paupa new guinea(renamed the territory and later state of Torres) and the bismark archipelago(renamed the territory and later state of Rabaul) to the USA. the USA will encourage people to move to its new empire. In the late 20's immigration is basically shut down until the late 60's which causes a labor shortage and people from the american empire move onto the mainland USA and beome more assimilated due to mass education in the colonies as well as moving to the USA. The USA in this timeline is like europe but with wider spaces between the cities. Right now I'm making a TL that shows all this happening in the USA.
David S Poepoe
Banned
Straha said:
Not true in any sense. There's no indication that the North and South would be antagonistic for years on end, except for literary license and good storytelling. The British wouldn't sell any of its overseas possessions to the Americans, another fallacy used a certain authors.
Spirit of Glasboro
The period of North/South Cold War would last 10-15 after which the Presidents of the USA and CSA meet at Glasboro and talk about ending the tensiions and speak of their two nations as brothers.
For all those enamorate of the Lost Orders as being the Silver Bullet of CSA Glory, the very knowledgeable Brad Smith is doing a Lost Orders scenario over at the Naval Fiction Board. Ya'll might just learn something.
http://p216.ezboard.com/fwarships1discussionboardsfrm6
Tom
The period of North/South Cold War would last 10-15 after which the Presidents of the USA and CSA meet at Glasboro and talk about ending the tensiions and speak of their two nations as brothers.
For all those enamorate of the Lost Orders as being the Silver Bullet of CSA Glory, the very knowledgeable Brad Smith is doing a Lost Orders scenario over at the Naval Fiction Board. Ya'll might just learn something.
http://p216.ezboard.com/fwarships1discussionboardsfrm6
Tom
I was thinking there they would install a Pro-Confederate leader to get a canal there. They could buy Sonora, Baja California, and Chiuhuhua from Mexico. They then would have a Pacific coast. They would rule the Gulf of Mexico, but they would be crushed in the Atlantic. They would try to get a foothold in Asia and the Pacific since the Atlantic wouldn't work
Could Happen?