Confederacy Wins and Europe Never Changes
- Thread starter EnglishCanuck
- Start date
Will Kürlich Kerl
Banned
It seriously depends on who supports the CSA.
If Great Britain and France both support the CSA, then we could actually see a conflict between the two countries later. France has Mexico as an ally, and when the CSA wants to expand into Mexico, then we will see France abandon the CSA for Mexico, and a potential war between the CSA/UK and Mexico/France.
If only France supports the CSA, but Spain also does, then we will also see a possible war between France and Great Britain. The UK not supporting the CSA immediately puts the UK against France, and pushes it towards the German-Ottoman camp. In the alternate WWI, we will see a Franco-Austrian-Russian alliance and a British-Ottoman-German alliance, FARs vs BOGs. In the event that Spain gets a Hohenzollern king in 1871, then that pushes Spain over to the BOGs.
One other point. The Great Game has been going on between Great Britain and Russia at this point. Without the USA buying Alaska from Russia, as seems to be the consensus on this board, then Great Britain might try to get Alaska as part of the Great Game. That increases even more tension between the two countries, so it is even less likely for Great Britain and Russia to ally with each other.
If Great Britain and France are intervening more in North America, we can expect them to intervene more in South America too. Some wars in South America, like the Paraguayan War or the Pacific War, might end up differently, so we might see Brazil or Argentina take part in the Scramble for Africa, which in itself unleashes a huge container of butterflies.
Anaxagoras
Banned
Why do we assume that either the North or the South is going to seek an alliance with a European power? The CSA is no real threat to the USA. The North doesn't need allies to protect it from the South, so it's not going to hunt ally-hunting unless the CSA links up with France or Britain. The South knows this as well as the North, so it might well avoid seeking any European alliance in order to avoid provoking the North.
The CSA very well might need a European ally to win and it would certainly make it easier for it. If the CSA has an ally in the ACW the USA will go looking for one as well.
If it wins without an ally, which I admit is possible, you may be correct. My assumption was that the CSA had an ally when it won (most likely France) so the US would look for its own ally which would most likely be Russia.
Anaxagoras
Banned
But Russia really has nothing to offer as an ally to the USA, nor does the USA have anything to offer as an ally to Russia.
Russia was one the strongest supporters of the Union during the war as it saw it as a counterweight to GB . The Crimean War was only about 4 years earlier than the ACW and the US was a historical enemy of GB. The US was clearly an up and coming power by that time being the 2nd most industrialized country per-capita and the 3rd(barely behind France) over all in the world. Russia had a huge population and army. Each could see each other as a counterweight to GB/France. Russia could use help in industrialization and the US could use some of Russia's military might.
Will Kürlich Kerl
Banned
Russia still has Alaska. If Great Britain tries to extend the Great Game into North America, then Russia will ally with the USA to prevent Great Britain from taking over Alaska.
Alaska's just an ice box at this point, not really worth that kind of power politics to hold onto. The Russian sale in OTL was widely regarded as a bad move on Seward's part at the time, which should tell you something about how much contemporary folk valued it.
What if Mexico joined the Franco-Austro-Confederate-Brazillian alliance? Also, remember that in this situation, Prussia is weaker as a result of losing the war against France.
Will Kürlich Kerl
Banned
I'm talking about later in the 1800s.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klondike_Gold_Rush
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nome_Gold_Rush
And oil can always be discovered earlier in Alaska.
Anaxagoras
Banned
But Russia's huge population and huge army were completely and utterly useless against the United Kingdom and/or France. UK/France were a threat to the former, but not the other way around. For an ally to be useful, it has to have some sort of deterrent value. If the USA and UK go to war, what could Russia do on behalf of the USA against the UK? Answer: not really anything.
It depends how soon after the ACW the US/UK war breaks out. With US help Russia can industrialize much faster. US loans can help as much as French loans did later. A more industrialized Russia can threaten India for example. GB wasn't all powerful.
Transport them to Washington State instead. There are plenty of US railroads there.
Will Kürlich Kerl
Banned
Mexican troops are sent to France to help with the French war effort?
That lifeguard that saved Bismarck in OTL is sent to Mexico a few days before Bismarck arrives at that pool?
But it more than makes up for it by being allies of Russia, the UK, and the US, which combined is basically every great power other than France and Austria teaming up on them. France and Austria are lacking in every single category compared to that behemoth.
Because Russia was the UK's greatest enemy for most of this era and was considered by the UK to be an incredibly dangerous great power to be fought at every turn and prevented from expanding it's influence. Even if they where a paper tiger they where a paper tiger the British government genuinely believed was a real tiger.
I might have been a little bold when I said certainly, but Max's chance of victory is astronomically higher in a victorious CSA scenario.
I think Max needed more time to solidify his reign in the south, and if the Union isn't openly backing Juarez, he can do that and put a better foot forward against him.
Plus, Juarez was almost captured multiple times, so maybe enough butterflies occur when Max can capture him and execute/exile him and take the wind out of republican sails.