Say Iraq somehow achieved their objective of capturing what they saw as Arab land (Khuzestan) and maintain full control over the Shatt Al-Arab or Aravund River. What would happen?
Say Iraq somehow achieved their objective of capturing what they saw as Arab land (Khuzestan) and maintain full control over the Shatt Al-Arab or Aravund River. What would happen?
Iraq did this by when? Fall 1980? 1982? If Saddam won decisively at the start, in late 1980, and was satisfied by those territorial gains at the expense of Iran, he might've been emboldened to invade Kuwait maybe even KSA around '85 or so.
Iran of course would've wanted the turf back but with the Islamic republic alienated from the US and with the USSR backing Iraq, it would've been tough to get adequate arms.
He's unlikely to invade Kuwait as a major reason was his high debt which would be less of an issue with access to KhuzestanWould he still want Kuwait seeing as he will reap the economic benefits of Khuzestan's oil which will make him a kingmaker in deciding global oil prices?
The Iranian recovery in equipment would have probably been quicker than it was in OTL;....
consequently Israel and the United States might have supplied even more spare parts and armaments for Iran’s US manufactured equipment. Then, once the re-equipping and build-up of its armed forces was complete, Iran would launch an attack to recover its lost province and bring down the Iraqi regime.
He's unlikely to invade Kuwait as a major reason was his high debt which would be less of an issue with access to Khuzestan
But if Iran suffers a loss of oil revenue, that, coupled with animosity toward the US...
He's unlikely to invade Kuwait as a major reason was his high debt which would be less of an issue with access to Khuzestan
If Iraq wins the war quickly (as noted by someone above, the best chance was in the first few weeks), then the US won't ever be involved... they generally didn't get involved until the war turned against Iraq and there was a real chance of the Iranians winning. If Iraq wins later on, then the US will likely have been involved. In either case, the Iranian antipathy towards the US is unlikely to change much... it was about as bad as it could get anyway...But if Iran suffers a loss of oil revenue, that, coupled with animosity toward the US and the USSR backing Iraq,
uh.... some of them did this. The states who fought with Israel stocked up on all the military goodies they could get their hands on. Iraq was one of them. I'll agree with you that the Iraqi army definitely lacked competent leadership though. But if you really want a military that 'is competent enough to handle domestic opposition but too incompetent to mount a coup', then what you really want is what Kuwait and SA had... small infantry based forces that are heavy on small arms and light on heavy equipment. Saddam's problem was that he had an army that was nicely stocked with a lot of heavy equipment, and some rather bungling boobs to lead them...Arab dictators, like many dictators, liked having armies that were competent enough to handle any domestic opposition but too incompetent to mount a coup, meaning too incompetent to fight wars with other states.
is what Kuwait and SA had... small infantry based forces that are heavy on small arms and light on heavy equipment.
ah, didn't know that... the one book I have on the war made it sound as if the Kuwaitis had a lightly armed border guard and not much else... regardless of what they had, they apparently did poorly against the Iraqis...Actually Kuwait's army in 1991 was just the opposite; it was fully mechanised, with some 160 Chieftain tanks, 200 M113 APCs and well equipped with self propelled artillery.