Computerized Communism/Central Planning?

Delta Force

Banned
The topic came up in this thread, and I'm wondering how it would have worked in practice. Computers have significantly improved logistics and information handling in modern economies. However, computer systems have also served as information bottlenecks, as many commercial systems and even ones designed for government are incompatible with each other. Early Soviet computerization proposals called for the development of a dual purpose network for military and civilian use, and presumably network integration would have remained a major priority going forward. At the very least integration of information was a continuing priority.

Within the Soviet Union, there were differing views on how it might impact things politically. Some thought such centralization would risk creating a kind of computerized neo-Stalinism or cyber-Stalinism, because a small group of people would be able to easily control the economy. They also thought computerization would make it simple to spy on the population, because it would be possible to track people's activities. There were even some proposals to replace all money in the Soviet Union with computerized cards, achieving the Marxist goal of a non-money economy.

Another group thought it could make the Soviet Union more competitive with market economies, and perhaps even surpass them, by allowing computers to rapidly change production in response to demand and search for more efficient ways to assign production. Computerization would also improve information on supply and demand, and a combination of the Soviet Census and internal passport system and computerized location handling could help to improve resource allocation.

There were pragmatists whose concerns helped lead to the system not being adopted historically, as a computerized network would literally be a network from a public administrations point of view, and would require bureaucracies to share information (as good as currency, especially in a centrally planned economy) and give up some of their power to the computer system. There would also be issues with assigning production and supply at short notice, as budgets would have to increase or decrease in response, and rapidly. Of course, perhaps the biggest issue for getting bureaucrats to sign on is that such a system would be more efficient and reduce their numbers and power.

For the purposes of this though, let's assume that such a system actually was created. How would it have performed relative to a market economy, and how would politics in the Soviet Union and other communist states have changed? Could computerized communism have followed two paths, one a form of cyber-Stalinism, and the other a kind of liberalized cyber-socialism?
 
Funny how I happen to be writing a term paper on the internet and social movements in history at this very moment :p

The big difference between the Soviet Cybernetics Council and Cybersyn vs ARPANET is they were massively more ambitious projects than ARPANET was. ARPANET was just trying to be a networking for sharing information while the Cybernetics Council and Cybersyn were trying to figure out how to use computers and networking to run whole countries.

And that's kind of the problem. Computer technology in the Cold War, particularly before the personal computer, just did not have the chops to handle the kind of speed and processing power necessary to do all the modeling, real-time monitoring, updates, and automation that they're looking for. They were trying to go for more than anyone had the means to do and even still had some promising results that were killed largely for political reasons.

I think if they aimed a little lower and sought out some kind of vast information sharing network instead of some kind of giant system to fix all the problems of command economics they could have done it and built up to the grand vision. If they had done that and included a system for end user feedback it is quite possible they could get the sort of thing together to make command economics work.

The political impact is mostly going to be restricted to the bureaucracy until the PC comes into existence. The bulk, specialization, and cost of mainframes will keep it limited to use by the party, industry, and the military up until you start getting workable PCs. Once those get cheap enough is when things will start to open up though I don't think you'll get a neo-Stalinist cyberpunk world. The Soviet leadership post-Stalin went to GREAT lengths to make sure the Terror of Stalin would never return and moved more and more towards a collective leadership model in part to reign that in. What it could do is either result in a far more efficient KGB or lead to a far more limited KGB. Seeing as the first people to play with it are the apparatchiks rather than the general population you might see a push from the apparatchiks for greater decentralization and reforms through the 80s that picks up support and steam from the masses in the 90s.

It won't solve all of the problems in the USSR by a long shot but if they implemented something more low-key and built up to their dream system it could lead to a Soviet Union that actually works.

I think I might want to do a TL on this actually.

I mean think of it this way: OTL you've got World of Warcraft by the mid 2000s operating as a giant closed system with multiple independent actors in it with a live economy. It is a lot more limited than the real world in what you can do but if you can get that kind of thing working for computer games imagine if that was applied to economic modeling.
 
Some quick thoughts.

First, I dont believe the bandwidth, modem, and router technology was available back in the 80s to develop what you are suggestion. Second, the Soviets severely lagged the West in semiconductor development as they never really mastered transistor technology. So their system would have lacked comparable processing speeds and memory capabilities.

As I recall, there was a NATO general who visited a Russian radar station a few years ago, last decade, and was amazed they were using vacuum tube technology in leiu of transistors on their radar. It was impressive vacuum technology but still not transistors.

Even if they were able to accomplish this, they still have software issues. One of the defining features of the west is the role competition played in software development. Oracle, SAP, Microsoft, IBM, and others all complemented and competed with each other. In the mode of Capitalist dogma, I believe competition likely would have created superior software.

The one area the Soviets might have been superior is in the mode of developing standards such as IP (internet protocol), web software standards (html), and other equivalents. But here, the west was fairly successful in overcoming this despite not having central planning.

I am sure there are those who will disagree my views, particularly on the role of competition. But I would suggest that software is one of the few areas where a guy in an office working with a blank piece of paper has an advantage over the incumbent. Microsoft succeeded IBM. Google, Adobe, and Intuit all succeeded despite big bad Microsoft. And a successful business strategy in Silicon Valley is to develop corporate application software that kicks Oracle, IBM and SAP's butt and then sell out to Oracle. Peoplesoft, Siebel, and Cognos are just a few examples of such companies. Meanwhile companies like Workday, Salesforce.com and others are doing it yet again. So, I would suggest small, decentralized generally beats big, centralized in software.

As to the impact on their society and economy if they could accomplish this, I have to think about it more.
 
Still does not work

Even with super PCs and NETs communism does not work.
You can not plan the economy. You would get bread lines on-line at best. Gulag with Yandex at worst.
 
It has all the pieces needed for the definitive '80s sci-fi/action movie. The Soviet Union, put into the control of an ultra-advanced computer system, managing everything from the prices of bread to the readiness level of missile silos, plots the Motherland's growth and expansion to engulf the world in the evils of Communism. It's like Terminator and Red Dawn wrapped into one. :D

I've no real clue into the economics of the USSR, but I think it might work. A computer can't be bribed or get overloaded by paperwork, and corruption and bloated bureaucracy were two large contributing factors to the Soviet Unions demise. A large system like the USSR investing into automated economics might start a trend throughout the world, with the members of the West either tempted to adapt the technology to their policy or push it away with as much force as they could, it having an unacceptable link to Communism.
 
Even with super PCs and NETs communism does not work.
You can not plan the economy. You would get bread lines on-line at best. Gulag with Yandex at worst.
As the economy grows, the complexity grows much faster (exponentially, I think, polynomially, certainly). You very, very quickly reach limits in what can be handled.
 
Even with super PCs and NETs communism does not work.
You can not plan the economy. You would get bread lines on-line at best. Gulag with Yandex at worst.

If you had a system designed circa 2005 you have enough computing power that it is possible to come up with a fairly efficient resource allocation and inventory program for a planned economy.

The problem is that's lightyears ahead of what anyone had during the Cold War. If you did something like ARPANET it is possible to see improved efficiency in running the Soviet system provided it is coming with and leads to additional reforms to sort out the problems of Soviet state socialism.

You're not going to get what the Cybernetics Council and Allende were dreaming of simply because there isn't the computing power. However if the Soviets or Chile work within the limitations of the system (and Allende doesn't face a coup) they could get quite a bit of benefit from it. Just having access to basic inventory data on any material stockpile or factory in the USSR from every stockpile and factory in the country would be miles ahead of what they were working with. It won't make shortages go away but it will make it easier to spot bottlenecks assuming the graft in the system is taken care of.

A Soviet ARPANET is quite doable and if it is used to the full potential it offers then you could get a surviving USSR.
 

Delta Force

Banned

Delta Force

Banned
Funny how I happen to be writing a term paper on the internet and social movements in history at this very moment :p

When did that start happening? We're there many before 2003 or so?

The big difference between the Soviet Cybernetics Council and Cybersyn vs ARPANET is they were massively more ambitious projects than ARPANET was. ARPANET was just trying to be a networking for sharing information while the Cybernetics Council and Cybersyn were trying to figure out how to use computers and networking to run whole countries.

And that's kind of the problem. Computer technology in the Cold War, particularly before the personal computer, just did not have the chops to handle the kind of speed and processing power necessary to do all the modeling, real-time monitoring, updates, and automation that they're looking for. They were trying to go for more than anyone had the means to do and even still had some promising results that were killed largely for political reasons.

The Soviets were looking at something on par with SAGE in terms of cost. Given what SAGE was able to accomplish, it might be quite possible to have economic updates on a timely basis. Real time capabilities are difficult to acquire, even now, but reports for every hour, shift, or day could probably be accomplished.

I think if they aimed a little lower and sought out some kind of vast information sharing network instead of some kind of giant system to fix all the problems of command economics they could have done it and built up to the grand vision. If they had done that and included a system for end user feedback it is quite possible they could get the sort of thing together to make command economics work.

Certainly. Also, finding ways to integrate existing organs of the bureaucracy into the program could help increase support. One of the early uses of computers in the United States was accounting, and while it greatly streamlined things, accountants were still required to manage things. They also liked not having to do things by hand anymore.

The political impact is mostly going to be restricted to the bureaucracy until the PC comes into existence. The bulk, specialization, and cost of mainframes will keep it limited to use by the party, industry, and the military up until you start getting workable PCs. Once those get cheap enough is when things will start to open up though I don't think you'll get a neo-Stalinist cyberpunk world. The Soviet leadership post-Stalin went to GREAT lengths to make sure the Terror of Stalin would never return and moved more and more towards a collective leadership model in part to reign that in. What it could do is either result in a far more efficient KGB or lead to a far more limited KGB. Seeing as the first people to play with it are the apparatchiks rather than the general population you might see a push from the apparatchiks for greater decentralization and reforms through the 80s that picks up support and steam from the masses in the 90s.

I wonder how open the Soviet internet would be, as well as private computer ownership? If the Soviet Union produces more consumer goods, something like the Sinclair ZX80 could become quite popular.

I mean think of it this way: OTL you've got World of Warcraft by the mid 2000s operating as a giant closed system with multiple independent actors in it with a live economy. It is a lot more limited than the real world in what you can do but if you can get that kind of thing working for computer games imagine if that was applied to economic modeling.

Actually, MMORPGs are being used for similar economic research in real life. It might be more prominent in a timeline like this though.
 
The main problem I can foresee is that you're still going to run into the problem of garbage in, garbage out - if people are putting out shoddy product to make up the numbers, flat out lying to the government about their production figures, or otherwise gaming the system it doesn't matter if you're using paper or computers. Computers will still be able to help fix some of the glaring inefficiencies but a lot of what was wrong with the Soviet Union's economy was inbuilt and systemic to both it and its society.
 

RousseauX

Donor
As the economy grows, the complexity grows much faster (exponentially, I think, polynomially, certainly). You very, very quickly reach limits in what can be handled.

Why?

I mean, I don't think a computerized central planning solves any of the inherit problems with Central planning, but given Moore's law there is no real reason to think that you are going to hit some sort of computational limit.
 
Why?

I mean, I don't think a computerized central planning solves any of the inherit problems with Central planning, but given Moore's law there is no real reason to think that you are going to hit some sort of computational limit.

I think you need transistors to get Moore's Law. The Soviets werent so good there.
 

Delta Force

Banned
Some quick thoughts.

First, I dont believe the bandwidth, modem, and router technology was available back in the 80s to develop what you are suggestion. Second, the Soviets severely lagged the West in semiconductor development as they never really mastered transistor technology. So their system would have lacked comparable processing speeds and memory capabilities.

Router technology could be an issue. However, the 1960s proposals called for a systems hierarchy. There would be a unified national data center, but it would receive information from regional data centers, which would themselves receive information from factories, offices, and other institutions. That would make the network easier to manage and make it more robust, and preserve some of the bureaucratic hierarchy of the Soviet Union. Even modern technology would probably have a challenge being directly linked to everything, and running everything from one location would reduce robustness.

Incidentally, robustness is why the Soviets decided to use vacuum tubes for longer than their Western counterparts. They were familiar technology to everyday people and easier to repair and find parts for. Vacuum tubes are also very resistant to EMP damage, almost inherently, while transistors have to be carefully designed for such circumstances, which usually leaves them a generation or two behind the state of the art in transistor technology anyways. So there are reasons to use transistor technology, but it's not the most reliable, efficient, or compact technology.

Even if they were able to accomplish this, they still have software issues. One of the defining features of the west is the role competition played in software development. Oracle, SAP, Microsoft, IBM, and others all complemented and competed with each other. In the mode of Capitalist dogma, I believe competition likely would have created superior software.

Competition does create better software, but it can often lead to incompatibility. In the early days of computing, that was even more of an issue, especially because of differing hardware standards, and in some cases differing hardware operating system standards.

The challenge for the Soviets would be ensuring that every system would be able to communicate with every other system, even if going through a different network. The data can't be aggregated if it is on a machine that is unable to communicate with the wider network. Standards could help to prevent situations in which crucial systems are managed by custom machines, which become difficult to maintain as they age, but too crucial to decommission.

The one area the Soviets might have been superior is in the mode of developing standards such as IP (internet protocol), web software standards (html), and other equivalents. But here, the west was fairly successful in overcoming this despite not having central planning.

Standards would almost be inevitable in the Soviet Union. The Soviets could have an advantage by consolidating around a few standards earlier in the process of computerization, avoiding the race for standardization that saw many products become orphaned in the 1980s and 1990s.

I am sure there are those who will disagree my views, particularly on the role of competition. But I would suggest that software is one of the few areas where a guy in an office working with a blank piece of paper has an advantage over the incumbent. Microsoft succeeded IBM. Google, Adobe, and Intuit all succeeded despite big bad Microsoft. And a successful business strategy in Silicon Valley is to develop corporate application software that kicks Oracle, IBM and SAP's butt and then sell out to Oracle. Peoplesoft, Siebel, and Cognos are just a few examples of such companies. Meanwhile companies like Workday, Salesforce.com and others are doing it yet again. So, I would suggest small, decentralized generally beats big, centralized in software.

I think there are some best practices in the industry. The Soviets would risk standardizing on something that isn't necessarily the best solution. However, some of the best mathematicians in the world were Soviets, and if some of them worked on developing information systems and computers, and I'm sure many would for a high priority and high profile project, they could settle on solutions that work quite well.

Perhaps instead of having a new central plan every five years due to near real time planning, the Soviet Union would have a conference every five years to discuss major revisions of the network?

As to the impact on their society and economy if they could accomplish this, I have to think about it more.

I'm interested in hearing some about that.
 
Could the USSR have gotten Gosplan to use computerized inventory and tracking in the 1960's?

Yep.

Could they have made an analogue of ARPANET, so that information shared and accessible to many?

Yes, again. They could've gotten it started, at least.

The main problem with computers is that they don't have a filter. Remember GI=GO (Garbage In means Garbage Out), no matter how sophisticated you've coded the algorithm.

The Soviet economic system had such serious problems with quality and people lying and stealing at every level that by the time the information filtered back up to Moscow, it was bloody useless.
The decisions Gosplan managers made were based on grossly distorted and misunderstood figures.

Attempts to change this boiled down to "the beatings will continue until morale/productivity/quality improves."

Computerization would've tightened the circle jerk loop a bit, but the Soviet economy still was based on fantasy and political expediency rather than sound technocratic principles favoring honesty and competence.

That's my two kopecks about it.
 

Delta Force

Banned
Even with super PCs and NETs communism does not work.
You can not plan the economy. You would get bread lines on-line at best. Gulag with Yandex at worst.

It's certainly not going to work for determining what consumers want in terms of consumer goods, or for some of the other issues of communism. From a logistical perspective though, it would quite well. Supply, demand, and production would become more clear. Supply shortages could be more readily identified, likely before they even begin, which would help prevent queuing and other issues largely rooted in logistics.

It has all the pieces needed for the definitive '80s sci-fi/action movie. The Soviet Union, put into the control of an ultra-advanced computer system, managing everything from the prices of bread to the readiness level of missile silos, plots the Motherland's growth and expansion to engulf the world in the evils of Communism. It's like Terminator and Red Dawn wrapped into one. :D

I'm thinking more in terms of realistic outcomes, but some of the more exotic outcomes are interesting too, and I might make a science fiction story about them.

I've no real clue into the economics of the USSR, but I think it might work. A computer can't be bribed or get overloaded by paperwork, and corruption and bloated bureaucracy were two large contributing factors to the Soviet Unions demise. A large system like the USSR investing into automated economics might start a trend throughout the world, with the members of the West either tempted to adapt the technology to their policy or push it away with as much force as they could, it having an unacceptable link to Communism.

I think it's quite likely that logistics would be improved. Another thing is that large scale accounting could help prevent some of the fraud that occurred under the Soviet system, because it would become feasible to track everything, and discrepancies could be flagged for review.

As the economy grows, the complexity grows much faster (exponentially, I think, polynomially, certainly). You very, very quickly reach limits in what can be handled.

That's what one of the proponents of the Soviet computer system said. His predictions showed that by the 1980s all Soviet men, women, and children would be full time accountants. :p

The main problem I can foresee is that you're still going to run into the problem of garbage in, garbage out - if people are putting out shoddy product to make up the numbers, flat out lying to the government about their production figures, or otherwise gaming the system it doesn't matter if you're using paper or computers. Computers will still be able to help fix some of the glaring inefficiencies but a lot of what was wrong with the Soviet Union's economy was inbuilt and systemic to both it and its society.

Computers might be able to help reduce some of the fraud. In accounting, everything must balance, so it's more likely discrepancies would be noticed and flagged for investigation. For fraud to work, everyone would have to consistently repeat any fraud that entered the system, which would be difficult to keep up.
 
Computers might be able to help reduce some of the fraud. In accounting, everything must balance, so it's more likely discrepancies would be noticed and flagged for investigation. For fraud to work, everyone would have to consistently repeat any fraud that entered the system, which would be difficult to keep up.

That's not how it works. Computers cannot detect fraud, even today with massively more advanced machines auditors are required. Doctoring numbers to shift amounts into expenses and still make everything balance is not a complicated process, especially when the people investigating will have little idea how the system works, and there will almost certainly be widespread collusion (something far more difficult to detect).

Frauds can go on for years with no one noticing because they are overworked, trying to keep down costs, or simply lazy. Remember Phar-More? 500 million dollars in the whole while showing massive profits for five years. It was only discovered because the president started embezzling money too. People wanted to believe it was real, so they ignored the warning signs.

How about ZZZZ Best? 90 percent of their revenue was fake, and it was discovered because of a reporter doing a routine story on the company.

In the Soviet system you will almost certainly have all three. Not to mention the very real possibility toes of rather important people would get stepped on.

Edit: in a lot of ways a more computerized system actually decreases the difficulty of fraud. They leave a much smaller and more difficult to follow paper trail, the systems can be complicated for auditors to understand, etc.

TL;DR: Computers will cut down on little fraudulent activity in the Soviet Union on their own.
 
What I'm thinking of is more in line with Project Cybersyn.

I actually bought/read Cybernetic Revolutionaries: Technology and Politics in Allende's Chile a while ago. What I found fascinating/surprising is how low tech the whole system actually was. Conceptionally and aesthetically certainly advanced, but low tech (even for its own time) nevertheless.

Some other interesting links:

WI 1970's/1980's home terminal timesharing instead of personal microcomputing?

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=193063

Along the discussion the point gets raised that such a system might be more suitable to a centralized economic system.

Maybe this timeline expores some dead end technologies of OTL ?

Setun (Russianhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_language: Сетунь)

was a balanced ternary computer developed in 1958 at Moscow State Universtiy. It was built under the leadership of Sergei Sobolev and Nikolay Brusentsov. It was the only modern ternary computerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ternary_computer. It used three-valued ternary logic instead of the two-valued binary logic prevalent in other computers. The computer was built to fulfill the needs of Moscow State University.
It was manufactured at the Kazan Mathematical plant. Fifty computers were built and production was halted in 1965. Between 1965 and 1970 a regular binary computer was used at Moscow State University to replace it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Setun

Cryotron

"The cryotron is a switch that operates using superconductivityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryotron#cite_note-1 The cryotron works on the principle that magnetic fields destroy superconductivity. This simple device consists of two superconducting wires ( e.g. tantalum and niobium) with different critical temperature (Tc). The cryotron was invented by Dudley Allen Buck of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory in 1953,"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryotron
 
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