It seems unlikely, on the surface of things. Still, I wonder if our resident China experts know if there were any discussions, however brief, on the ability of either side to come to some sort of compromise peace between 1939 and the end of 1941? If not, are there some sort of circumstances that would be necessary for an agreement to be signed ending the war?
Compromise Peace to End Sino-Japanese War?
- Thread starter Douglas
- Start date
Thande
Donor
I don't know enough about the Sino-Japanese War to answer your OP, but here's a thought: consider how the Germans were aligned with China at first, then switched to Japan but didn't get really enthusiastic about it until the Tripartite Pact was signed in 1940.
Now, given that Hitler's ultimate aim was always going to be eastern lebensraum and the defeat of Jewish Bolshevism, I don't think it's unreasonable for the Nazi leadership to think "We could really use allies to stab the Soviets in the back, even if they are yellow untermenschen; and instead of choosing between Japan and the Kuomintang, why not try to stop them killing each other for five minutes so they can both try killing the Soviets when we get around to launching Barbarossa?"
For this to have any chance of success, it would I think require 1) A more anti-Soviet KMT (in OTL the Soviets at first backed them along with the ChiComms) and 2) a better Nazi foreign ministry than Ribbentrop's OTL one.
Of course this perhaps assumes unrealistic levels of long-term planning on the part of the Nazis - anti-Soviet plans don't mean much until Poland and the Western allies (or France, at least) are out of the picture.
Now, given that Hitler's ultimate aim was always going to be eastern lebensraum and the defeat of Jewish Bolshevism, I don't think it's unreasonable for the Nazi leadership to think "We could really use allies to stab the Soviets in the back, even if they are yellow untermenschen; and instead of choosing between Japan and the Kuomintang, why not try to stop them killing each other for five minutes so they can both try killing the Soviets when we get around to launching Barbarossa?"
For this to have any chance of success, it would I think require 1) A more anti-Soviet KMT (in OTL the Soviets at first backed them along with the ChiComms) and 2) a better Nazi foreign ministry than Ribbentrop's OTL one.
Of course this perhaps assumes unrealistic levels of long-term planning on the part of the Nazis - anti-Soviet plans don't mean much until Poland and the Western allies (or France, at least) are out of the picture.
Susano
Banned
For another non-sinologist opinion 
:
Maybe some compromise could be reached, but I dont think it would have any use. Basically since the end of WW1 Japan had played a game "Lets see with how much we can get away with" in China. A salami tactic of getting concession after concession (including land). OTOH, the KMT is legitimated in large parts by the fight against the Japanese. So even if there is peace, both sides would be willing to break it at the drop of a hat as soon as the other side appears weak...
:Maybe some compromise could be reached, but I dont think it would have any use. Basically since the end of WW1 Japan had played a game "Lets see with how much we can get away with" in China. A salami tactic of getting concession after concession (including land). OTOH, the KMT is legitimated in large parts by the fight against the Japanese. So even if there is peace, both sides would be willing to break it at the drop of a hat as soon as the other side appears weak...
maverick
Banned
Now for a semi Japanese expert opinion
You need a really good Chinese army bleeding the Japanese Army white to convince the nationalist leadership in Tokyo that its not worth it, and then get some concessions, like Manchuria and a puppet state in Northern China, or something.
The Ultra-Nationalist leadership in Japan, many former members of the Kodoha faction, see China as their Soviet Union, so in a way, this is like Hitler and Stalin deciding to stop fighting and fight the USA instead (or Space Lizards), so its not plausible, but it's not impossible either.
If you can have the Chinese defeat the Japanese in some key battles and force a draw that convinces the moderates in Tokyo to oust the Nationalists and seek an arranged peace, this should be hard, but somewhat feasible.
Good news is that Prime Minister Konoe and Chiang enjoyed a good relationship and Konoe could find enough navy and army officers (theoretically) as well as Imperial support to end the war in China, although as I said it depends on how the war goes.
You need a really good Chinese army bleeding the Japanese Army white to convince the nationalist leadership in Tokyo that its not worth it, and then get some concessions, like Manchuria and a puppet state in Northern China, or something.
The Ultra-Nationalist leadership in Japan, many former members of the Kodoha faction, see China as their Soviet Union, so in a way, this is like Hitler and Stalin deciding to stop fighting and fight the USA instead (or Space Lizards
), so its not plausible, but it's not impossible either.If you can have the Chinese defeat the Japanese in some key battles and force a draw that convinces the moderates in Tokyo to oust the Nationalists and seek an arranged peace, this should be hard, but somewhat feasible.
Good news is that Prime Minister Konoe and Chiang enjoyed a good relationship and Konoe could find enough navy and army officers (theoretically) as well as Imperial support to end the war in China, although as I said it depends on how the war goes.
Thande
Donor
Teach your grandmother. 90% of the threads I posted in 2006 were this type for LTTW
For another non-sinologist opinion
Maybe some compromise could be reached, but I dont think it would have any use. Basically since the end of WW1 Japan had played a game "Lets see with how much we can get away with" in China. A salami tactic of getting concession after concession (including land). OTOH, the KMT is legitimated in large parts by the fight against the Japanese. So even if there is peace, both sides would be willing to break it at the drop of a hat as soon as the other side appears weak...
That's true, but it's possible that both sides sign up to a peace that both know is temporary and they're just using it to get their breath back...and then events intervene that stop them starting it up again. (For example, you can imagine a TL where the Eastern Front stalemates, the Nazis and Soviets sign a temporary peace intending to restart the war in a couple of years or so, and in the end it gets delayed to the point that both have tested nuclear weapons and now no-one dares start it again).
Susano
Banned
Bad example - despite mavericks comparison I think likelihood for a peace on the German East Front was very, very slim. China and Japan, OTOH, had made peaces at several occasions. But I see what you mean - still, I wonder what could cause such a delay. Especially as it would have to be something that keeps both sides busy with other stuff.
maverick
Banned
I never said otherwise...that's why I even implied that you'd need invading Space Lizards to get them to stop fighting and cooperate
It'd have to be something big, like the Soviet Union invading, but I don't see how would that work realistically.
maverick
Banned
Back to the "China needs to force Japan to negotiate" idea, I'd say that you need a Chinese victory at Nanking.
Once Japan got the Capital relatively easy, victor's disease spread through the Japanese High Command and they simply refused to negotiate with Chiang once he refused Japan's ridiculously harsh terms.
Once Japan got the Capital relatively easy, victor's disease spread through the Japanese High Command and they simply refused to negotiate with Chiang once he refused Japan's ridiculously harsh terms.
I doubt the NRA can win at Nanjing as OTL. You'd need a less devastating loss at Shanghai first, and someone other then Tang in charge. IIRC, Falkenhausen opposed defending Nanjing due to its bad geography. Perhaps the NRA, without the overwhelming rout from Shanghai, would be able to pull a Stalingrad and bleed the IJA with superior manpower backed up by the German-trained divisions?
You need an earlier POD for a German-mediated Compromise peace between Japan and China something like "Max Bauer Lives!: A More Realistic Axis China" (Which will be my next TL after Chiang Kai-Shek Goes to Germany)
Rough Timeline of "Max Bauer Lives: A More Realistic Axis China"
POD: 1929: Max Bauer makes a miraculous recovery of smallpox on what would be his deathbed. His miraculous recovery makes him live his life with a new zest and throw his efforts into consolidating Sino-German relations. During the next 3 years Bauer deepens contact between Nationalist China and Weimar China with increased trade and secret military links
1933: Nazi's takeover Germany. Max Bauer delivers a congratulatory letter to Hitler personally signed by Chiang Kai-shek - beginning a personal relationship between the two men.
1934: The Wermacht begin testing weapons in China instead of the Soviet Union. New concepts and weapons such as dive bombers, armoured cars, ground-air coordination are tested by German "Volunteers" in Chiang Kai-Shek's "Fifth Encirclement Campaign" Mao Zedong is killed. A scattered remnant makes it to the mountains of Sinkiang under the leadership of Zhou Enlai where they pose a very marginal threat to central government authority.
1935:
January - China begins its "Three-Year Plan" a crash-course programme of industrial and military modernization. Crucial war industries and rail-links are prioritized - as are equipment for Central Government divisions.
Skirmishes begin around the Shanghai area when Chinese and Japanese troops fire on each other on the 3rd anniversary of the "January 28 Incident." Chiang immediately rushes troops to the area and decisively routs the Japanese forces back to the Japanese-concessions forcing them to the bargainning table.
Due to the superb performance of Chiang's elite German Trained Nanking troops the "Disbandment Conference" in December 1935 succeeds in bringing much of the militarists around the country to heel - effectively placing much of China back into central government control - not only in theory but in practice.
1936:
Construction begins on the "Chiang Kai-Shek Line" a series of fortifications concentrated north of Beijing and around the Shanghai and the Yangtze valley. The assertion of central government authority over much of the country brings much needed revenue to this project. Although corruption, incompetence, bureacratic paralysis and waste takes big bites out of this project and slows it down.
1938:
February: A bar brawl between Chinese construction workers and Japanese civilians near the Marco-polo bridge escalates into a full-scale conflict between the two powers.
Stalemate ensues for the whole year. Although much of the "Chiang Kai-shek Line" is a propaganda myth it bolsters the fighting spirits of the National Revolutionary Army. The small-but efficient Chinese Air Force and the "German Legion" effectively limit the advance of the Japanese in the North by preventing any decisve breakthrough. The Japanese make a strategic error by concentrating much of their forces to taking Shanghai as it is a 'Prestige Target' believing that the fall of it will cause a collapse in Chinese moral.
Fighting rages all around China - in the sky Chinese BF109's dogfight with Japanese bombers over Shanghai - in the sea, Chinese submarines stalk and harass Japanese merchant shipping - in the streets of Shanghai and in the plains of Northern China both Chinese and Japanese blood are spilled for inches of ground in a repeat of Trench Warfare.
The Naval Faction in the Japanese military sees the needless bleeding of military resources in China as futile and stage a coup against the Hardline Army faction at the end of the year - paving the way for the 1939 Berlin Conference.
1939:
February: Germany negotiates a mediated peace between China and Japan. Japan will renounce all her concessions in "China Proper" in return for Chinese recognition of Manchuoko's independence and naval basing rights in China's southern ports. A cover of time magazine lauds Hitler as the "peacemaker"
September: World War II breaks out. Germany invades poland and things go as OTL.
1940:
January: China gives an ultimatum to France, England and Portugal demanding the 'immediate and full return' of all concessions and the payment of reparations. France, England and Portugal all reject them.
May: Things go as in OTL. As France is about to fall, both Italy and China declare war on both England and France hoping to make quick and easy gains. Chinese troops move into foreign concessions - and a combined Anglo-French operation seizes Hainan.
June: France falls - Indochina becomes an independent nation under Chinese tutelage.
July: Chinese and British troops skirmish around the jungles of Malaya and Burma - both sides are stalled by logistical difficulties and political unwillingless to seriously escalate conflict. By the end of the year the frontlines are static and a form of Jungle Trench Warfare has emerged.
In Europe the Battle of Britain procedes as in OTL.
December: Fearful that China will control all of Southeast Asia, Japan bombs Pearl Harbor and invades Hawaii, The Philippines, Dutch East Indies, Malaya. They have the same luck as they did OTL - with Japan rolling d20's in every operation and encounter.
1941:
Events in the European theatre procede as in OTL.
The Russian Front:
On June 22, 1941 Germany, China, Japan, Finland, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Vichy France and Spain declare war on the Soviet Union. In return for Japanese declaration of War on the Soviet Union - Germany declares war on the United States of America - Hitler goes against all military, diplomatic and political advice in doing so.
Japanese and Manchurian troops fight a bloody 2 month long siege against determined Soviet resistance in Vladivastock which falls on August 22.
Chinese troops move into Soviet-backed Sinkiang, Tibet and Mongolia. By December 25 China is once again unified.
Moscow falls on January 1 1942 with Stalin dying "like hero to defend the motherland with a rifle in hand." Stalin's death paves the way for saner leadership with Molotov taking the reigns and moving the Soviet Capital to Stalingrand vowing to fight "For every inch of the Sacred Motherland against the Fascist Hordes." American and British aid to the Soviet Union is ramped up - making up the severe logistical difficulties of losing Moscow - the hub of the Soviet logistics network.
In the Pacific: Chinese troops make progress in Burma as British troops are diverted to protecting Singapore the "lynchpin" of the British position in the pacific. However - devoid of effective air support and reinforcements Singapore falls in October after a protacted siege.
The Philippines and Dutch East Indies fall by July 1941.
By December 1941 Japan controls a wide permiter strecthcing from Siam to Hawaii. America is building up her forces and her industrial production is rampimg up considerably however...
1942:
Axis forces continue to advance on all fronts.
Germany continues to plunge deeper into the Soviet Union - despite increasing logistical difficulties caused by severe weather, partisan activity and other constraints. However - Hitler is obsessed with the concept of taking Stalingrad - by the end of the year the city is still being fought over by Axis and Soviet Forces.
In Africa - German and Italian troops reach the outskirts of the Suez by December. A final push will deliver the city into their hands...
China takes tentative steps into central asia. Setting up a puppet republic in Krgystan. Burma falls and a puppet republic is established. An "Indian Liberation Army" is equipped and stands poised to begin the liberation of india.
Japan consolidates her holdings and prepares for the Invasion of Australia schedules to begin in Early 1943..
1943:
1943 is the turning point. A Soviet Counteroffensive cuts off several German armies in Stalingrad and the Caucuses. The "Indian Rebellion" is nipped off the bud and the Chinese invasion is stalled in Calcutta. The Japanese invasion of Australia fails miserably.
1944:
Soviet forces begin pushing Germany back. A massive tank battle ensues in Mozhaisk as Soviet forces push to encircle the city. Hitler refuses permission of the substantial Moscow Garrison to leave the city in order to engage Soviet troops. For the second time a German army is encircled and destroyed. Moscow is back in Soviet hands by December.
In the Pacific American troops begin to take back islands one by one starting with Hawaii. 6 Japanese carriers and the majority of Japan's experienced aviators are lost along with Hawaii.
Allied troops land in Tunisia. By the end of the year the African campaign has cost Germany Africa and the allegiance of Vichy France and Spain who declare their "neutrality" and withdraw their combat forces from the Soviet Union. German troops move into France and Spain severely streching the already streched Wermacht.
Elements in the Kuomintang begin negotiation for a mediated peace with Britain and the USSR with peace talks being facilitated by America.
1945:
Soviet forces liberate Leningrad and begin pushing Germany back. By the end of the year the frontiers are back to the 1939 Molotov-Ribentropp pact lines.
American forces continue their inexorable advance in the Pacific. Allied troops land in Sicily and move up - being stopped only at the rugged terrain of the North. Mussolini evacuates to Venice after arresting disloyal members of the Fascist Grand council. However an accident in the Manhattan project caused by a miscalculation ends up costing America most of her precious nuclear physicists and equipment - pushing America's nuclear project several years back. (Yeah this is kinda implausible - but I really dislike timelines where America nukes everything - they win. Game over .)
Madame Chiang Kai-shek stages a coup against her husband backed by the CIA. They blame the coup on pro-axis elements and arrest Wang Jingwei. A negotiated peace is secured with the Allies and the Soviet Union.
1946:
Allied forces invade into Normandy cutting off German troops in Spain in the process.
Allied forces continue advancing into the pacific.
Soviet Forces continue to push into Poland and Germany
1947:
Soviet forces seize Berlin on February 14 - Hitler kills himself and Germany surrenders unconditionally.
Soviet Forces roll into Manchuria and into Korea. By the end of the year Japan only has Japan left. Madame Chiang opportunistically declares war on Japan - seizing South Korea and installing a puppet republic under Shymagn Rhee
Soviet and American high commands plan for an invasion of Japan.
1948:
Operation Downfall takes place. At high cost - Japan is split into a (Commuist) North and (Allied) South occupation zone
Rough Timeline of "Max Bauer Lives: A More Realistic Axis China"
POD: 1929: Max Bauer makes a miraculous recovery of smallpox on what would be his deathbed. His miraculous recovery makes him live his life with a new zest and throw his efforts into consolidating Sino-German relations. During the next 3 years Bauer deepens contact between Nationalist China and Weimar China with increased trade and secret military links
1933: Nazi's takeover Germany. Max Bauer delivers a congratulatory letter to Hitler personally signed by Chiang Kai-shek - beginning a personal relationship between the two men.
1934: The Wermacht begin testing weapons in China instead of the Soviet Union. New concepts and weapons such as dive bombers, armoured cars, ground-air coordination are tested by German "Volunteers" in Chiang Kai-Shek's "Fifth Encirclement Campaign" Mao Zedong is killed. A scattered remnant makes it to the mountains of Sinkiang under the leadership of Zhou Enlai where they pose a very marginal threat to central government authority.
1935:
January - China begins its "Three-Year Plan" a crash-course programme of industrial and military modernization. Crucial war industries and rail-links are prioritized - as are equipment for Central Government divisions.
Skirmishes begin around the Shanghai area when Chinese and Japanese troops fire on each other on the 3rd anniversary of the "January 28 Incident." Chiang immediately rushes troops to the area and decisively routs the Japanese forces back to the Japanese-concessions forcing them to the bargainning table.
Due to the superb performance of Chiang's elite German Trained Nanking troops the "Disbandment Conference" in December 1935 succeeds in bringing much of the militarists around the country to heel - effectively placing much of China back into central government control - not only in theory but in practice.
1936:
Construction begins on the "Chiang Kai-Shek Line" a series of fortifications concentrated north of Beijing and around the Shanghai and the Yangtze valley. The assertion of central government authority over much of the country brings much needed revenue to this project. Although corruption, incompetence, bureacratic paralysis and waste takes big bites out of this project and slows it down.
1938:
February: A bar brawl between Chinese construction workers and Japanese civilians near the Marco-polo bridge escalates into a full-scale conflict between the two powers.
Stalemate ensues for the whole year. Although much of the "Chiang Kai-shek Line" is a propaganda myth it bolsters the fighting spirits of the National Revolutionary Army. The small-but efficient Chinese Air Force and the "German Legion" effectively limit the advance of the Japanese in the North by preventing any decisve breakthrough. The Japanese make a strategic error by concentrating much of their forces to taking Shanghai as it is a 'Prestige Target' believing that the fall of it will cause a collapse in Chinese moral.
Fighting rages all around China - in the sky Chinese BF109's dogfight with Japanese bombers over Shanghai - in the sea, Chinese submarines stalk and harass Japanese merchant shipping - in the streets of Shanghai and in the plains of Northern China both Chinese and Japanese blood are spilled for inches of ground in a repeat of Trench Warfare.
The Naval Faction in the Japanese military sees the needless bleeding of military resources in China as futile and stage a coup against the Hardline Army faction at the end of the year - paving the way for the 1939 Berlin Conference.
1939:
February: Germany negotiates a mediated peace between China and Japan. Japan will renounce all her concessions in "China Proper" in return for Chinese recognition of Manchuoko's independence and naval basing rights in China's southern ports. A cover of time magazine lauds Hitler as the "peacemaker"
September: World War II breaks out. Germany invades poland and things go as OTL.
1940:
January: China gives an ultimatum to France, England and Portugal demanding the 'immediate and full return' of all concessions and the payment of reparations. France, England and Portugal all reject them.
May: Things go as in OTL. As France is about to fall, both Italy and China declare war on both England and France hoping to make quick and easy gains. Chinese troops move into foreign concessions - and a combined Anglo-French operation seizes Hainan.
June: France falls - Indochina becomes an independent nation under Chinese tutelage.
July: Chinese and British troops skirmish around the jungles of Malaya and Burma - both sides are stalled by logistical difficulties and political unwillingless to seriously escalate conflict. By the end of the year the frontlines are static and a form of Jungle Trench Warfare has emerged.
In Europe the Battle of Britain procedes as in OTL.
December: Fearful that China will control all of Southeast Asia, Japan bombs Pearl Harbor and invades Hawaii, The Philippines, Dutch East Indies, Malaya. They have the same luck as they did OTL - with Japan rolling d20's in every operation and encounter.
1941:
Events in the European theatre procede as in OTL.
The Russian Front:
On June 22, 1941 Germany, China, Japan, Finland, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Vichy France and Spain declare war on the Soviet Union. In return for Japanese declaration of War on the Soviet Union - Germany declares war on the United States of America - Hitler goes against all military, diplomatic and political advice in doing so.
Japanese and Manchurian troops fight a bloody 2 month long siege against determined Soviet resistance in Vladivastock which falls on August 22.
Chinese troops move into Soviet-backed Sinkiang, Tibet and Mongolia. By December 25 China is once again unified.
Moscow falls on January 1 1942 with Stalin dying "like hero to defend the motherland with a rifle in hand." Stalin's death paves the way for saner leadership with Molotov taking the reigns and moving the Soviet Capital to Stalingrand vowing to fight "For every inch of the Sacred Motherland against the Fascist Hordes." American and British aid to the Soviet Union is ramped up - making up the severe logistical difficulties of losing Moscow - the hub of the Soviet logistics network.
In the Pacific: Chinese troops make progress in Burma as British troops are diverted to protecting Singapore the "lynchpin" of the British position in the pacific. However - devoid of effective air support and reinforcements Singapore falls in October after a protacted siege.
The Philippines and Dutch East Indies fall by July 1941.
By December 1941 Japan controls a wide permiter strecthcing from Siam to Hawaii. America is building up her forces and her industrial production is rampimg up considerably however...
1942:
Axis forces continue to advance on all fronts.
Germany continues to plunge deeper into the Soviet Union - despite increasing logistical difficulties caused by severe weather, partisan activity and other constraints. However - Hitler is obsessed with the concept of taking Stalingrad - by the end of the year the city is still being fought over by Axis and Soviet Forces.
In Africa - German and Italian troops reach the outskirts of the Suez by December. A final push will deliver the city into their hands...
China takes tentative steps into central asia. Setting up a puppet republic in Krgystan. Burma falls and a puppet republic is established. An "Indian Liberation Army" is equipped and stands poised to begin the liberation of india.
Japan consolidates her holdings and prepares for the Invasion of Australia schedules to begin in Early 1943..
1943:
1943 is the turning point. A Soviet Counteroffensive cuts off several German armies in Stalingrad and the Caucuses. The "Indian Rebellion" is nipped off the bud and the Chinese invasion is stalled in Calcutta. The Japanese invasion of Australia fails miserably.
1944:
Soviet forces begin pushing Germany back. A massive tank battle ensues in Mozhaisk as Soviet forces push to encircle the city. Hitler refuses permission of the substantial Moscow Garrison to leave the city in order to engage Soviet troops. For the second time a German army is encircled and destroyed. Moscow is back in Soviet hands by December.
In the Pacific American troops begin to take back islands one by one starting with Hawaii. 6 Japanese carriers and the majority of Japan's experienced aviators are lost along with Hawaii.
Allied troops land in Tunisia. By the end of the year the African campaign has cost Germany Africa and the allegiance of Vichy France and Spain who declare their "neutrality" and withdraw their combat forces from the Soviet Union. German troops move into France and Spain severely streching the already streched Wermacht.
Elements in the Kuomintang begin negotiation for a mediated peace with Britain and the USSR with peace talks being facilitated by America.
1945:
Soviet forces liberate Leningrad and begin pushing Germany back. By the end of the year the frontiers are back to the 1939 Molotov-Ribentropp pact lines.
American forces continue their inexorable advance in the Pacific. Allied troops land in Sicily and move up - being stopped only at the rugged terrain of the North. Mussolini evacuates to Venice after arresting disloyal members of the Fascist Grand council. However an accident in the Manhattan project caused by a miscalculation ends up costing America most of her precious nuclear physicists and equipment - pushing America's nuclear project several years back. (Yeah this is kinda implausible - but I really dislike timelines where America nukes everything - they win. Game over .)
Madame Chiang Kai-shek stages a coup against her husband backed by the CIA. They blame the coup on pro-axis elements and arrest Wang Jingwei. A negotiated peace is secured with the Allies and the Soviet Union.
1946:
Allied forces invade into Normandy cutting off German troops in Spain in the process.
Allied forces continue advancing into the pacific.
Soviet Forces continue to push into Poland and Germany
1947:
Soviet forces seize Berlin on February 14 - Hitler kills himself and Germany surrenders unconditionally.
Soviet Forces roll into Manchuria and into Korea. By the end of the year Japan only has Japan left. Madame Chiang opportunistically declares war on Japan - seizing South Korea and installing a puppet republic under Shymagn Rhee
Soviet and American high commands plan for an invasion of Japan.
1948:
Operation Downfall takes place. At high cost - Japan is split into a (Commuist) North and (Allied) South occupation zone
I guess I should clarify...it simply needs to be a "compromise" in the sense that war must come to at least a temporary end between the KMT and Japan. If Japan gets enough of an advantage to force its desired peace terms on China, that's fine too. The goal is to get a plausible end to fighting in China by the end of 1941 (or: as long as you want if butterflies say no US in the war) that doesn't involve any outside power ending the war directly.
Bill Cameron
Banned
CCA,
Good god...
How many times must we explain that Japan does not have the sealift capacity to invade Hawaii? The troops may be available in this time line especially considering the IJA isn't in as much of a Chinese quagmire, but the shipping an invasion force and it's logistics require does not exist, especially with your Chinese submarines sinking Japanese merchantmen earlier in the time line.
Nonsense. Without the OTL bases she seized in Indochina, Japan cannot stage an invasion of Malaya or the DEI nor provide the air cover each requires.
Kind of implausible? More like utter nonsense.
The Manhattan Project isn't just Los Alamos. It's facilities scattered from Long Island to Tennessee to Chicago to New Mexico to Washington and dozens of places in between. The physicists you're killing off are primarily in New Mexico, but the fissionables you seem to be using to kill them off are primarily in Tennessee and Washington. It's going to take one hell of an accident to reach that far.
Bill
Hendryk
Banned
There's also the Communists to factor in. Every time the Nationalists tried to appease the Japanese, the Communists grew in legitimacy as the real patriotic force.For another non-sinologist opinion
Maybe some compromise could be reached, but I dont think it would have any use. Basically since the end of WW1 Japan had played a game "Lets see with how much we can get away with" in China. A salami tactic of getting concession after concession (including land). OTOH, the KMT is legitimated in large parts by the fight against the Japanese. So even if there is peace, both sides would be willing to break it at the drop of a hat as soon as the other side appears weak...
That looks good, though you'll need to correct some details, namely the Japanese invasion of Hawaii (the resident experts on the Pacific front would fall on you like a ton of bricks--that's their own Sealion) and the delaying of the US nuclear program.
I read the Japanese knew the war was unwinnable by the late 30s and sought a way to end it. But the outbreak of war in Europe changed things. The defeat of the Anglo-French forces meant Japan could occupy French Indochina, then the most important supply route to China was through the port of Haiphong. It was the invasion of French Indochina which brought the American embargo.
So if the French do a lot better, a truce may happen in the East.
So if the French do a lot better, a truce may happen in the East.
That post really made me happy. For the first time I've become the target of an internet superhero.
How many times must we explain that Japan does not have the sealift capacity to invade Hawaii? The troops may be available in this time line especially considering the IJA isn't in as much of a Chinese quagmire, but the shipping an invasion force and it's logistics require does not exist, especially with your Chinese submarines sinking Japanese merchantmen earlier in the time line.
- Maybe - as a result of an earlier end to the conflict they had time to build more sealift capacity?
Nonsense. Without the OTL bases she seized in Indochina, Japan cannot stage an invasion of Malaya or the DEI nor provide the air cover each requires.
- No reason I can't handwave the Republic of Indochina leasing bases to their co-belligerents.
The Manhattan Project isn't just Los Alamos. It's facilities scattered from Long Island to Tennessee to Chicago to New Mexico to Washington and dozens of places in between. The physicists you're killing off are primarily in New Mexico, but the fissionables you seem to be using to kill them off are primarily in Tennessee and Washington. It's going to take one hell of an accident to reach that far.
- Ok maybe. Is there any plausible way that you can suggest that will delay the manhattan project then?
Bill Cameron
Banned
It shouldn't have made you happy. It should have made you think.
Japan's yard capacity is pretty much tied up with warships. Every merchant ship is one less warship, so which do you think the militarists running Japan are going to decide?
There's no reason you can't handwave pixies making the flowers grow either.
So, China is going to allow a puppet state to host major Japanese military formations just scant years after China and Japan were fighting each other to the death? How can China be sure all that firepower will be used against the colonial powers?
Not "maybe". More like certainly.
And do the work you should have done before writing that codswallop?
Use the Search function. I've posted in several "Delayed Bomb" threads in the last year alone.
Bill
That post really made me happy. For the first time I've become the target of an internet superhero.
How many times must we explain that Japan does not have the sealift capacity to invade Hawaii? The troops may be available in this time line especially considering the IJA isn't in as much of a Chinese quagmire, but the shipping an invasion force and it's logistics require does not exist, especially with your Chinese submarines sinking Japanese merchantmen earlier in the time line.
- Maybe - as a result of an earlier end to the conflict they had time to build more sealift capacity?
Nonsense. Without the OTL bases she seized in Indochina, Japan cannot stage an invasion of Malaya or the DEI nor provide the air cover each requires.
- No reason I can't handwave the Republic of Indochina leasing bases to their co-belligerents.
The Manhattan Project isn't just Los Alamos. It's facilities scattered from Long Island to Tennessee to Chicago to New Mexico to Washington and dozens of places in between. The physicists you're killing off are primarily in New Mexico, but the fissionables you seem to be using to kill them off are primarily in Tennessee and Washington. It's going to take one hell of an accident to reach that far.
- Ok maybe. Is there any plausible way that you can suggest that will delay the manhattan project then?
Well CCA, read your 'draft' TL about the survival of Max Bauer(i read a lot of him in Rast's A Shift in Priorities and like their action both OTL and ATL) and with the pausability 'mistakes'(the most alternate nazis here always check) was a very good draft and made a possible and pausable compromise peace between KMT and the Japanesse(like to evolve the idea like a spin-off for Chiang kai-sheik going to germany).
Again i will don't mention the obvious mistake because already was mentionet but about avoiding the develpot of the A-Bomb........
Kill Einstein before he redact his letter to the americans about the possibility of the bomb(that will be sketched in middle war like a wunderwaffe or a special anti heavy assault weapon but delayed a lot their develompt said 1942-43 the bomb will be ready to the end of the forty for earlier)
About Compromise peace without a big POD...... the Japanesse suffer a tanneberg/Stalingrad like in the inital phase of the war and can forced to go to the table about the situation... let me thinking a littler more
keep with the topic who is very interesting
Att
Nivek von beldo
Hendryk really hits on the key point, there isn't just one China that Japan has to make peace with, its two. On the one hand, it would benefit Chiang to just get the Japanese off his back so he could deal with Mao. Worthy of note is that he largely ignored Japanese encroachments into Manchuria in favor of trying to exterminate the communists; not to say that he didn't care, but its a matter of priorities. However, as mentioned previously, any capitulation on Chiang's part is only going to strengthen Mao, something he also does not want. Further, Chiang is no position to negotiate and Japan possesses little impetus to seek any settlement but their own: the domination of China. In order for the Japanese to seek any other settlement the Chinese have to beat them back first, something which Chiang cannot accomplish on his own. He needs Mao to fight Japan, and Mao is not going to accept a settlement because in the larger scheme Mao only benefits from that fight. Beyond this, it also assumes that the CCP and KMT together could put the Japanese back on their heels, something which they weren't very successful at OTL.
So, you need to get Mao and Chiang in the same boat, get them to together beat back the Japanese, and then get them to together accept a settlement with Japan. These are some tall orders. Even knocked back from their main line of conquest, Japan isn't going to let go of Manchuria, plain and simple. This is something which Chiang might accept for the time being, but Mao has less to lose and more to gain and will likely act as a spoiler. Even if at this point Chiang chooses to break the United Front (again), make a separate peace with Japan, and resume going after Mao, he will have suffered a huge propaganda defeat in doing so, as we've discussed.
The long and short of it is, without some prior PoD and more significant butterflies, nobody in this scenario has any great motivation to seek peace.
So, you need to get Mao and Chiang in the same boat, get them to together beat back the Japanese, and then get them to together accept a settlement with Japan. These are some tall orders. Even knocked back from their main line of conquest, Japan isn't going to let go of Manchuria, plain and simple. This is something which Chiang might accept for the time being, but Mao has less to lose and more to gain and will likely act as a spoiler. Even if at this point Chiang chooses to break the United Front (again), make a separate peace with Japan, and resume going after Mao, he will have suffered a huge propaganda defeat in doing so, as we've discussed.
The long and short of it is, without some prior PoD and more significant butterflies, nobody in this scenario has any great motivation to seek peace.