Completly Different Colonial Powers

1. It's not a timeline.

2. With a POD of the early 9th century, I'm not so sure most of what I mentioned would exist (The Templars, The Teutonic Order, Vikings even making it to Iceland, let alone Vinland, depending on when the Franks head north, Colombus, etc...) so what's your point?

A lot of those probably will not exist as we know them. The templars would be a good example, as the organization that we remember is contingent on a series of events which will not exist ITTL. On the other hand, it is quite possible that a lot of these events will happen in a similar manner to how we know them. For instance, the Norse may not become quite the raiders that we recall, but climatic and demographic pressure on them may very well still force them to expand in some direction. A huge amount will be changed with this sort of distant and far-reaching POD, but a fair bit may be farmiliar.

I think that the problem here lies in your scenario's revolving on things mirroring OTL in too many respects, especially when it comes to personalities. Frankly, with a Carolingian POD, the odds of Henry the navigator being born are astronomical. I'm not saying that a similar figure is imposssible (that would depend on the circumstances of the timeline), but I am saying that our figure will not exist.

The problem is not simply that some things resemble OTL. That is to be expected in AH, because of the way in which events are often triggered or influenced by broader patterns. but to rely on OTL personalities and organizations, all of which came into existence centuries after your POD (which is a rather sweeping one), is to stretch plausibility a little too far.
 
Basque whalers and cod fishermen were thought to be fishing on the Grand Banks and using the offshore islands as fishing stations in the mid-1400s. With POD that gives the Basques their own nation, they could become a marine power on the order of Portugal and colonize North America decades before Columbus.

Or:

A Celtic coalition involving Ireland, Wales, and (later) Scotland forms in the wake of William's defeat at the Battle of Hastings. Its mariners follow in the wake of St. Brendan and find a new world to the west. (OK, sort of ASB, but what the heck.)
 

Faraday Cage

Some sort of Uber-Swiss Confederation that has enough extended territories to have a coastline?
 
Ideas?

Genoa is a possible choice. A coule of small Caribbean islands can do wonders for a tiny Merchant Republic. And if Genoa is gonna colonize, the other Italian powers would begin to wonder where their money comes from, and soon, you may be seeing Venitians controlling cities like Ceuta (to gail access to the Atlantic), maybe Cuba, hell even a slice of Brazil.

Another choice could be any one of the Scandanavian states. Or maybe a German state, the Hanseatic League sends out an expedition perhaps?
 
A lot of those probably will not exist as we know them. The templars would be a good example, as the organization that we remember is contingent on a series of events which will not exist ITTL. On the other hand, it is quite possible that a lot of these events will happen in a similar manner to how we know them. For instance, the Norse may not become quite the raiders that we recall, but climatic and demographic pressure on them may very well still force them to expand in some direction. A huge amount will be changed with this sort of distant and far-reaching POD, but a fair bit may be farmiliar.

I think that the problem here lies in your scenario's revolving on things mirroring OTL in too many respects, especially when it comes to personalities. Frankly, with a Carolingian POD, the odds of Henry the navigator being born are astronomical. I'm not saying that a similar figure is imposssible (that would depend on the circumstances of the timeline), but I am saying that our figure will not exist.

The problem is not simply that some things resemble OTL. That is to be expected in AH, because of the way in which events are often triggered or influenced by broader patterns. but to rely on OTL personalities and organizations, all of which came into existence centuries after your POD (which is a rather sweeping one), is to stretch plausibility a little too far.

I should have been a bit clearer, in using those groups, figures, what have you, I was trying to use something familar from OTL as a sort of analogy to this hypothetical world for purposes of illustration, rather than exact persons or organizations that would exist in such a world.

Just curious though, why is it that the odds of Henry being born are so astronomical or impossible? Colombus would stand just about as long odds given the POD, but it's Henry specifically that you both point out as impossible or astronomically unlikely. I'm not being snarky here, I'm legitimately curious as to why there's so much certainty about Henry specifically? I'll be the first to admit, the history of Iberia isn't exactly my strong suit, but what is it about the Franks changing their rules of succession that completely wipes out Henry beyond any doubt?
 
I should have been a bit clearer, in using those groups, figures, what have you, I was trying to use something familar from OTL as a sort of analogy to this hypothetical world for purposes of illustration, rather than exact persons or organizations that would exist in such a world.

Just curious though, why is it that the odds of Henry being born are so astronomical or impossible? Colombus would stand just about as long odds given the POD, but it's Henry specifically that you both point out as impossible or astronomically unlikely. I'm not being snarky here, I'm legitimately curious as to why there's so much certainty about Henry specifically? I'll be the first to admit, the history of Iberia isn't exactly my strong suit, but what is it about the Franks changing their rules of succession that completely wipes out Henry beyond any doubt?

Okay. It's just that it would usually be better to say that you were discussing an analogue to a historical figure, rather than dropping Henry the navigator or colombus into the timeline and giving them the same role to play.

honestly, my fixation with Henry was originally because you went out of your way to include henry in your timeline, and how the first criticism of your scenario was your inclusion of him. In all probability, neither has a prayer of being born.

However, this did get me thinking: which person is more likely to be born: henry the navigator or christopher colombus? henry comes from a much smaller pool of ancestry, and is closer to the POD, but is also more vulnerable to the butterflies. Colombus is a bit harder to say, given how even today we don't know that much about him.

The thing about Henry the navigator is that he isnt going to be born, because your POD is explicitly tampering with the circumstances surrounding his ancestors. Henry the Navigator was a prince of the House of Aviz, which was the royal house of Portugal at the time. they rose to power in the late 14th century after a succession war when the current royal house, the Afonsines, died out (the Avises were a cadet branch of the Afonsines, via a illegitimate son). The Afonsines, who established Portugal as a county and later a state, were themselves a cadet branch of the House of Burgundy, via a younger son who left the country to join the reconquista. The house of Burgundy, in turn, were descended from Duke Robert the Old of Burgundy, third son of Robert II of France, who was in turn the son of Hugh Capet, founder of the Capetian dynasty. Hugh Capet, in turn, became King of France when he was elected king following the death of Louis V, the last Carolingian king.

What was the point of that rambling tale of dynastic inheiritance? There are two, and both relate to your POD. The first is that your scenario posits a very different pattern of carolingian inheiritance, which will create all sorts of different political dynamics, not to mention different kings. The last carolingian king in france may die in 900 CE, or 1000 CE, or 1500 CE. In any of those cases, Hugh Capet is probably never going to live, and almost certainly is never going to have a chance to become king of france. And with no hugh capet (or just one who is not king), you have eliminated the house of burgundy, which, among other things, means no Afonsines, and in that case quite possibly no portugal. The second is that your scenario implies that the reconquista is carried out either by the carolingians or by carolingian successor states in spain. this is an interesting concept, to be sure. But it is very different from the course of the historical reconquista, which was launched from Asturias. It will probably be divorced from the Kingdom of Asturias's attempts to reconquer the penninsula, with the expansion beginning in the Pyrennes and in catalonia instead of in northwestern spain. This is an interesting scenario, but it means that even if a henry of Burgundy travels to Iberia to join the reconquista, it will have a very different dynamic (for instance, he probably winds up fighting for the carolingians in the east rather than the spanish in the Asturian successor states in the west).

In short, your scenario removes or alters Henry's ancestors in such a way that they will not exist, and creates a political dynamic whereby even if they make it to spain on schedule, they will not be able to do mirror their accomplishments IOTL.

Colombus may be a bit easier to justify, given how little we know about him. But he faces many obstacles as well. his ancestors may die or never meet as a result of butterflied wars. He lives after henry, so even more butterflies are conspiring against him. In short, he isnt going to exist either. The only real difference is that it is easier to catalogue why henry the navigator will not be born.
 
The big problem is that the number of possible european colonial powers is limited to the different powers you could have occupying the land of the OTL colonial powers, with maybe the odd unexpected suspect thrown in so:

At least one power based in the British Isles, but unless they can gain control of the straits of Gibraltar they won't have lands on the Mediterranean Littoral.

At least one power from the Iberian Peninsular

An analogue of France

A power based on the Italian, Greek and Anatolian peninsula - but only around the Mediterranean unless they can gain access through the straits of Gibraltar

A Scandinavian power if there's no significant power in the British Isles and unless they can gain control of the straits of Gibraltar they won't have lands on the Mediterranean Littoral.

It's basically down to which powers have easy access to the World Ocean
 
about the philippines and taiwan

i created a map about if the philippines was not colonized by the spanish and a partitioned taiwan...
taiwan2.jpg

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Mongol-dominated Europe

a Siberian Rus ?

Venice, Genoa, Papal States

Baltic League- comprising both northern German states, Baltic kingdoms

Finland
 
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