Complete financial collapse of the CSA in 1863

I am talking financial Armageddon here, the inflation rate hits 150% a month, the railroad system collapses entirely , the food riots get way out of hand, the death rate due to starvation approaches that of China during the Great Leap Forward.

1) How long does the CSA last 3 months , 6 months?
2)Is there a short term revolution just before the US takes over?
3) How much stronger are the Unionists down South?
4) How much does CSA Army desertion increase and US Army recruitment increase?
 
1) How long does the CSA last 3 months , 6 months?

Due to sheer geographic size and an unstable situation I'd say give it about 6 months while various state governments work out what to do and the armies of the CSA variously fight on or collapse.

2)Is there a short term revolution just before the US takes over?

It would depend on a number of factors I imagine. Strength of the CSA field armies, security of wherever the central government moves, supply situation, and how much discontent people feel towards the former government of the CSA.

3) How much stronger are the Unionists down South?

Well if the entire financial structure of the CSA has collapsed and you have huge famine levels I imagine like most poor southerners they're really only strong enough to welcome the Union occupation forces with a cheer.

4) How much does CSA Army desertion increase and US Army recruitment increase?

Well considering Lee at his last gasp still had slightly less than 30,000 men you could probably guess that his personal charisma might keep the army together at least long enough to evacuate/restore order in Richmond long enough to retreat to another defensible location.

The various armies in the West are likely to just melt away as their home situation deteriorates. The various garrisons (like Vicksburg) might stick together for a while longer simply because they just happen to be in a reasonably well stocked and secure place. Maybe one big last hurrah in the east with a few short sieges in the West.

All in all I expect them to just melt away like in 1865 with only the real die hards sticking on.
 
How does this come about, though?/QUOTE]

Which has me curious about...how did they avoid it as long as they did OTL? I'm not versed on the topic but the lack of national coordination of the scattered
industrial resources, an export based economy (being blockaded), and ongoing war with its financial burdens were certainly...challenging from the beginning.
 
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I am talking financial Armageddon here, the inflation rate hits 150% a month

The CSA had a 9000% inflation during the war as is. It was "self producing" enough so that the economic ruin wouldn't have hit just yet. It causes more then just inflation to cause problems, with alot of the population producing food and such, a market style afformation can be made.

Which has me curious about...how did they avoid it as long as they did OTL? I'm not versed on the topic but the lack of national coordination of the scantier industrial resources, an export based economy (being blockaded), and ongoing war with its financial burdens were certainly...challenging from the beginning.

The CSA had "cotton bonds" that were sold in pounds sterling in London and high risk unbacked loans in the Netherlands.
For the former the CSA was actually able to honor those bonds and the price actually increased until around the time that Atlanta fell.
 
How does this come about, though?

(I'm just curious. This sounds really interesting)

The CSA's very able treasury secretary dies and Northup takes his place and someone even more incompetent takes Northup's place. Impressment by the CSA Army of food hits Stalin-like proportions. Riots over this and the lack of food destroys rails, warehouses and stores. With the breakdown in order more slaves escape bringing down agricultural production.
 
The CSA had a 9000% inflation during the war as is. It was "self producing" enough so that the economic ruin wouldn't have hit just yet. It causes more then just inflation to cause problems, with alot of the population producing food and such, a market style afformation can be made.



The CSA had "cotton bonds" that were sold in pounds sterling in London and high risk unbacked loans in the Netherlands.
For the former the CSA was actually able to honor those bonds and the price actually increased until around the time that Atlanta fell.

The inflation rate is just a symptom the whole thing collapses due to gross mismanagement.
 
The CSA had a 9000% inflation during the war as is. It was "self producing" enough so that the economic ruin wouldn't have hit just yet. It causes more then just inflation to cause problems, with alot of the population producing food and such, a market style afformation can be made.
so the Confederates were literally screwed over by a factor of over 9000?

aah, sweet justice :D
 
so the Confederates were literally screwed over by a factor of over 9000?

latest


(sorry, I had to do it)
 
Now to make this even uglier, how do Blacks fare?

1) Do some of their masters free them and kick them off the plantation so they are free to starve?
2) Does the CSA government blame all their problems on "uppity slaves" and abolitionists leading to mass lynchings?
3) Are some Blacks killed to "provide more food for White folks" by lynch mobs?

It may be ugly but I can see this happening.
 
Now to make this even uglier, how do Blacks fare?

1) Do some of their masters free them and kick them off the plantation so they are free to starve?
2) Does the CSA government blame all their problems on "uppity slaves" and abolitionists leading to mass lynchings?
3) Are some Blacks killed to "provide more food for White folks" by lynch mobs?

It may be ugly but I can see this happening.
i wouldn't be surprised by any of this. this is a farcical country which IOTL immediately attacked anyone who disagreed with them the very instant that the evil institution they forced on everyone was even slightly threatened, starved and dishomed (is that a word?) their own people, murdered POWs and civilians, and engaged in biological warfare
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
In such a situation as you describe, where we're literally talking mass starvation, I think that Lee would order his army to cease operations and ask the Yankees to come in and help. He'd surrender if that was the price he had to pay, which it would be. Davis would be as stubborn as he was IOTL, but Lee's men would obey his orders rather than those of Davis, especially as they would know about how bad things were back at home. The other armies would probably follow suit, especially if Joe Johnston is in command of any of them.

Basically, what you're talking about it what actually came about in 1865. As long as there was a hope of victory (and the people of the Confederacy truly believed there was into late 1864), they would continue to resist. Once it became obvious that victory was impossible, especially after Lincoln's reelection, the Confederate will to go on with the war collapsed and their armies disintegrated.
 
In such a situation as you describe, where we're literally talking mass starvation, I think that Lee would order his army to cease operations and ask the Yankees to come in and help. He'd surrender if that was the price he had to pay, which it would be. Davis would be as stubborn as he was IOTL, but Lee's men would obey his orders rather than those of Davis, especially as they would know about how bad things were back at home. The other armies would probably follow suit, especially if Joe Johnston is in command of any of them.

Basically, what you're talking about it what actually came about in 1865. As long as there was a hope of victory (and the people of the Confederacy truly believed there was into late 1864), they would continue to resist. Once it became obvious that victory was impossible, especially after Lincoln's reelection, the Confederate will to go on with the war collapsed and their armies disintegrated.

You have a point, particularly with Joe Johnston who really seemed to care about his men.
 
The biggest 'problem' is mass starvation. Most people lived in rural areas, even in the Union, at the time, and the CSA certainly grew enough food for itself.

Starvation in the big cities? People fleeing to the countryside? Yes. 'Famine', no.

Aside from that, it's not TOO far off OTL, as has been pointed out.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
The biggest 'problem' is mass starvation. Most people lived in rural areas, even in the Union, at the time, and the CSA certainly grew enough food for itself.

Starvation in the big cities? People fleeing to the countryside? Yes. 'Famine', no.

Aside from that, it's not TOO far off OTL, as has been pointed out.

Worth pointing out that there were bread riots in Richmond as early as 1863 IOTL.
 
The biggest 'problem' is mass starvation. Most people lived in rural areas, even in the Union, at the time, and the CSA certainly grew enough food for itself.

Starvation in the big cities? People fleeing to the countryside? Yes. 'Famine', no.

Aside from that, it's not TOO far off OTL, as has been pointed out.

Even some rural areas had problems. They grew too much cotton and not enough food. But yes, not mass famine proportions. It is worse in TTL as CSA Army requisitions are even worse. The USSR was capable of growing enough food but due to Stalin's idiocies you had starvation in the USSR because he simply stole it and sold it abroad.
 
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