So in this thread, I want to explore the the legitimacy of Orwell's vision when compared to the real world and perhaps to explore how it could've ended up more like 1984. Now obviously OTL doesn't look anything like 1984, with three clear superstates or such widespread totalitarianism, but I find Orwell's ideas valuable in building an interesting picture of the world that sort of fits OTL: Here's how it does, in my view:
Three superstates:
Oceania: The USA and its allies. 1984 depicts an intercontinental, sea-based superpower, and predicts the replacement of the British Empire by American hegemony. In OTL, we have a Western Bloc that has numerous overseas allies; it wields control over the Western Hemisphere and is friendly with many other nations in various regions, such as SE Asia and South Africa.
Two major departures from Orwell's vision are that "Oceania" in OTL controls half of Europe and is not at all totalitarian. The first issue, however, is a logical development of the combination of the British and American forces as a worldwide power after WW2, and the second is, admittedly, a good example of where Orwell was wrong. However, it should be noted that not all nations allied to the US were really "free", everyone knows about the many dictatorships the US supported practically worldwide.
Eurasia: The Soviet Union/Warsaw Pact. In the novel, it is described as a land-based power, a description which fits like a glove. The USSR was also a totalitarian regime that often struggled with NATO and the PRC, but at different times. While in OTL "Eurasia" was never allied to "Oceania", there were times of better and worse relations.
Eastasia: The PRC. Orwell describes it as being formed in a decade of confused fighting, and though he was a couple decades off, the truth is that the Maoist takeover was indeed a long, asymmetrical struggle. Though initially allied to the USSR (I can imagine "Eastasia is allied to Eurasia, Eastasia has always been allied to Eurasia"), it soon became an independent power in its own right and, having broken off relations with the USSR, even went so far as to warm up to the West, which further resembles Orwell's idea of ever-transforming relationships of the future.
No-man's land: Described as a place of unclear borders, poverty, and many valuable resources, it is obvious to think of most of Africa, the warring states of the Middle East, and the countless conflicts of the Third World, which were manipulated strongly by the superpowers. Orwell correctly places the blame for its abject poverty on needless war, which is in part waged so that the superpowers can continue fighting each other even with MAD in place.
Thought Control: Stalinist USSR, and after WW2, Maoist China, which IMO did an even more thorough job than Stalin, and even today continues to use such methods to no small effect. One thing in particular that caught my attention was the concept of a Asian philosophy of "Death Worship"; there seems to be an OTL parallel in the form of Maoism; struggle was really taken to a ridiculous level, to the point that "struggle with heaven, earth and all humanity" was considered to be "endless joy". Also see the Cambodian Genocide which really does seem like mass killing for its own sake.
Telescreens: Mass media; though the control is nowhere near as overt as Orwell depicts. But what is interesting is that the mass consumerist culture is a phenomenon that until recently was limited to the West. In China, the "telescreens" are more blatant in the form of Internet monitoring.
Perpetual War: Orwell's idea of warfare is to me quite interesting, because he depicted it as taking place chiefly in the Third world and as being fought by small groups of combatants rather than giant armies. This seems to have been true in most cases of American/Soviet military actions; a famous exception was Vietnam but even that war fits as being an intervention rather than a real war in the older sense.
And it does seem to be perpetual, right?
Anyone else have any other ideas/complaints? Any thoughts about, for example, how OTL could look more like 1984, or how the novel was actually a pile of BS that has no bearing on reality (opinion)?
Note: Political Chat is like Room 101 for me, so I posted the thread here and not there. If there is any problem please make it known.
Three superstates:
Oceania: The USA and its allies. 1984 depicts an intercontinental, sea-based superpower, and predicts the replacement of the British Empire by American hegemony. In OTL, we have a Western Bloc that has numerous overseas allies; it wields control over the Western Hemisphere and is friendly with many other nations in various regions, such as SE Asia and South Africa.
Two major departures from Orwell's vision are that "Oceania" in OTL controls half of Europe and is not at all totalitarian. The first issue, however, is a logical development of the combination of the British and American forces as a worldwide power after WW2, and the second is, admittedly, a good example of where Orwell was wrong. However, it should be noted that not all nations allied to the US were really "free", everyone knows about the many dictatorships the US supported practically worldwide.
Eurasia: The Soviet Union/Warsaw Pact. In the novel, it is described as a land-based power, a description which fits like a glove. The USSR was also a totalitarian regime that often struggled with NATO and the PRC, but at different times. While in OTL "Eurasia" was never allied to "Oceania", there were times of better and worse relations.
Eastasia: The PRC. Orwell describes it as being formed in a decade of confused fighting, and though he was a couple decades off, the truth is that the Maoist takeover was indeed a long, asymmetrical struggle. Though initially allied to the USSR (I can imagine "Eastasia is allied to Eurasia, Eastasia has always been allied to Eurasia"), it soon became an independent power in its own right and, having broken off relations with the USSR, even went so far as to warm up to the West, which further resembles Orwell's idea of ever-transforming relationships of the future.
No-man's land: Described as a place of unclear borders, poverty, and many valuable resources, it is obvious to think of most of Africa, the warring states of the Middle East, and the countless conflicts of the Third World, which were manipulated strongly by the superpowers. Orwell correctly places the blame for its abject poverty on needless war, which is in part waged so that the superpowers can continue fighting each other even with MAD in place.
Thought Control: Stalinist USSR, and after WW2, Maoist China, which IMO did an even more thorough job than Stalin, and even today continues to use such methods to no small effect. One thing in particular that caught my attention was the concept of a Asian philosophy of "Death Worship"; there seems to be an OTL parallel in the form of Maoism; struggle was really taken to a ridiculous level, to the point that "struggle with heaven, earth and all humanity" was considered to be "endless joy". Also see the Cambodian Genocide which really does seem like mass killing for its own sake.
Telescreens: Mass media; though the control is nowhere near as overt as Orwell depicts. But what is interesting is that the mass consumerist culture is a phenomenon that until recently was limited to the West. In China, the "telescreens" are more blatant in the form of Internet monitoring.
Perpetual War: Orwell's idea of warfare is to me quite interesting, because he depicted it as taking place chiefly in the Third world and as being fought by small groups of combatants rather than giant armies. This seems to have been true in most cases of American/Soviet military actions; a famous exception was Vietnam but even that war fits as being an intervention rather than a real war in the older sense.
And it does seem to be perpetual, right?
Anyone else have any other ideas/complaints? Any thoughts about, for example, how OTL could look more like 1984, or how the novel was actually a pile of BS that has no bearing on reality (opinion)?
Note: Political Chat is like Room 101 for me, so I posted the thread here and not there. If there is any problem please make it known.