One POD involving the Centrals winning WW1 usually involves the French Republiccollapsing; a provisional Republic is often declared, but not always much a la Kerensky's own in Russia, but it too collapses and in the vacuum is filled by a Socialist or Communist Trope.
Another common trope might be the provisional government teetering on before succumbing to an ambitious personality who creates some sort of Vichy-Lite France, rarely, this scenario might involve the restoration of the monarchty. Eeither the Orléanists or Bonapartes; if it's before 1936 and they're really reaching, they may offer the crown to the
Duke of San Jaime he is an old man and fringe Legitimists known as
Blancs d'Espagne saw him as rightful king, believing his ancestor, the Duke of Anjou, nor any ponce could renounce their right to the crown. The big issue is he has no new kids, so ambitious personality merely uses him to rally support amongst conservatives, or we end up with another OTL HUngary where said man declares himself Regent until s suitable (read: pliable) successor is found (read: never).
But I'm more concerned with a Communist France. Let's assume the mutiny in 1917 is way worse and rocks Clemeneau's government; the High Trials are much harsher and neither Poincaré or Pétain are enclined to make any amends, ending with the high courts passing down more court martials, death penalties, hard labor, ect. This hardens the soldiers against the military establishment. For a little extra fun, the Russian Expeditionary Force in France (which had one mutiny on it's hands at the same time) also sees the mutiny spread throughout it's ranks.
As Pétain remains hardlined against the mutineers, his recommendations never occur, causing it the disobdience to spread further amongst the Western France. As the state of troop morale becomes public knowledge, there is, naturally, outrage. If possible, have Clemeneau's government collapse. Germany can score some victories in the west, but it's not necessary to win the far. I'd like this to be interesting, so let's have them lose: by time of the mutiny, American support was on the way.
What happens next? If Clemeneau's government collapses, I would assume someone else would form a government within the frame work of the Third Republic. Are the Trade Unions and the Socialist beginning to abandon their political support of the war? Who would replace Clemeneau? Let's say he lasts long enough until the Americans arrive, but Paris is swarming with brigades of mutinous troops demanding pay raises, leave from the front, and perhaps radicalized, the right to work and other such ideals.
Let's have WW1 wrap up in 1919, perhaps a few months later than OTL. Tsarist Russia still collapses, as does Austria-Hungary, and Germany is a mess as it was not long after the war too. In the last months of 1918, an amendment to the constitution is put forward to the Senate, which has moved out of rebellious Paris to Bordeaux for a new Constitution, with perhaps a few changes, but really no different than the post-WW2 4th Republic. Soldiers seize important buildings in Paris and proclaim a second commune.
What now? Would there be a civil war, or would the government just push out to Algiers and proclaim they are the legitimate France from France's colonial power? Would communism be quashed in it's cradle in France, or would the powers such as Italy, Britain, and America carry out some limited intervention but eventually go home. How does this effect Germany's peace terms, with a hostile Communist state on it's border?
On what lines does France form a communist state? Unlike Russia, it's highly industrialized, yet also has a history of centralization. Does it form a Federation of Regions/Cities, or one central government ran from Paris only? What influence do other radicals like anarchists play?
There is also the legacy of the French Revolution and how it created a new society, do the new radicals take advantage of that history, viewing themselves as the new Sans-Coulettes, who instead of taking back the land and throwing out the aristocracy, instead find themselves taking over the factories and tossing our the bourgeoisie?
I find such a revolution, if plausible, could create a unique brand of Communist (ala Maoism, Stalinism) ect, depending the route it takes, such as letting unions, labor councils and collectives manage and trade amount themselves, finished products being sold to the state.
Any other ideas? How would the west react? Wearied by WW1, what would their intervention amount too? Britain in and around Calais; America in Brittany; German Freikorps refusing to vacate Alsace-Lorraine?
Economically times would be hard, but not impossible. Hard currency resrves would be a problem. If the new government promises to respect the debt and loans taken out it may soften relations, but it also asks the question if France could pay. Like the Soviets, A Communist France may find it easier to repudiate any and all war debt, although again, it would make the accumulation of hard currency quite hard. French industry will be in shambles much as it was after WW1, and depending how long conflict last before the conflict stabilizes, they're going to be in a sticky situation. But they do have a reputation for luxury products and could probably market them. The American and British government might be pissy, but it doess't stop citizens from buying their productions unless their are sanctions. Even so, buyers would exist.
Another issue is what would happen to Weimar Germany? More unstable having France on the poor which is red?
More stable because the allies state Germany only has to pay reparations to the legitimate France based out of Algiers, and payments are suspended until such a time that the legitimate government returns to France, or the paymets are much smaller.
Thoughts?