Communist Portugal

This seems to me to be a strangely neglected scenario - the Communists coming to power in Portugal in 1974 and the extreme left getting a Western European government as an ally. Its implications for Spain are particularly interesting (not just because of the democratisation being so near, nor of Franco still being alive, but also ETA). I think it's wrong to think that it would be merely another Olof Palme; Cunhal was amongst the most pro-Soviet Communist leaders in Western Europe.
 
What would be the party that took power? The MFA weren't communist and unless you have some other organisation overthrow the Estado Nova Regime, it's not possible.

If you are talking about the communists seizing power during the Processo Revolucionário Em Curso, then that is a completely different scenario.
 
I imagine the Portugese communists operating somewhat similarly to Castro and co over in Cuba. Theirs may as well also be a red island in an otherwise capitalist region, assuming Spain and the other Western powers don't intervene to crush the commies. Assuming they manage to stay in power, it'd give the western leftists a bit of a morale-boost, despite the certain pro-Soviet leaning. If Cuba's reputation is any indication, a leftist state born out of a homegrown revolution (even if it has active KGB assistance) is easier to sympathize with than the satellite governments imposed on Eastern Europe.

Foreign policy-wise, they'd still seek to have active influence in Africa - especially with their former colonies, though I'm not sure how the locals would take to that. Getting extra help from their ex-colonizers in the fight against Apartheid South Africa (and in "maintaining order" within their borders) will have some interesting effects on Angola and Mozambique. Further afield, Macau could end up back with China a lot earlier than OTL, depending on China's relationship to the Soviets in this scenario. Unfortunately, East Timor will still be a target of the Suharto regime in Indonesia.
 
Further afield, Macau could end up back with China a lot earlier than OTL, depending on China's relationship to the Soviets in this scenario.

Unlikely.

Portugal offered to return Macau to China in 1974 with essentially no strings attached. The idea was floated during the Estado Novo as well (Portugal would give China Macau in return for China ceasing aid to the militant groups in Africa). Both times China refused.
 
What would be the party that took power? The MFA weren't communist and unless you have some other organisation overthrow the Estado Nova Regime, it's not possible.

If you are talking about the communists seizing power during the Processo Revolucionário Em Curso, then that is a completely different scenario.

The MFA as a whole wasn't communist, but some officers--above all Vasco Goncalves--were very close to the PCP. https://books.google.com/books?id=a1bEhomwmmAC&pg=PA88
 
I'm curious exactly how Portugal could turn Communist. Certainly if it happened it would throw a spanner into the works of both superpowers.

I do think the SU wouldn't be a friend of Portugal at first... 1974 is still the era of detente and western Europe clearly the sphere of the USA, so I can't see Brezhnev's Soviet Union willingly supporting Communist Portugal.

fasquardon
 
I'm talking about a hardline pro-Soviet Communist government headed by Alvaro Cunhal, secured by the extreme left-wing military officers and trade unions, not only leaving NATO but joining the Warsaw Pact and taking a stance of support for revolutionary movements analogous to the one that Gaddafi adopted around the same time. Imagine the German Autumn and the Brigate Rosse with an official-unofficial backing from a government which issues condemnations of human rights violations in West Germany, implicitly alleging Nazi continuity, a belligerent uncompromising government which is a refuge to the then abundant professional revolutionists.
 
The far-left was never strong enough to take power, and there were plans in OTL to fight the communists in case they tried a coup (plans involving everyone from the socialists to the whole right).
 
The far-left was never strong enough to take power, and there were plans in OTL to fight the communists in case they tried a coup (plans involving everyone from the socialists to the whole right).

Soviet involvement being out of the question?
 
It was a NATO member, and NATO would not allow any direct Soviet involvement (beyond the money help as in OTL).

I wasn't referring to open involvement, but what would be the possibility of a proxy civil war, especially if the Communists managed to mobilise the workers and the far-left elements in the Army responded aggressively to hostile activity from the other parties? One should take into account pro-Communist sympathies throughout Europe, especially in Spain, perhaps with Iberian federalism reemerging as part of that programme.
 
I wasn't referring to open involvement, but what would be the possibility of a proxy civil war, especially if the Communists managed to mobilise the workers and the far-left elements in the Army responded aggressively to hostile activity from the other parties? One should take into account pro-Communist sympathies throughout Europe, especially in Spain, perhaps with Iberian federalism reemerging as part of that programme.

I don't think Iberian federalism is extremely popular though...
 
I wasn't referring to open involvement, but what would be the possibility of a proxy civil war, especially if the Communists managed to mobilise the workers and the far-left elements in the Army responded aggressively to hostile activity from the other parties?
In the event of an attempted coup from the far-left, most of the armed forces (along with the vast majority of the population) were committed to a transition to democracy, and would have fought to ensure it. There were plans to temporarily move the capital to Porto, and recover the south if it came to it.
The sociological conditions for large support for communism were only met in parts of the south and areas with a large number of migrants from the south (Lisbon).
https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eleições_para_a_Assembleia_Constituinte_de_1975
One should take into account pro-Communist sympathies throughout Europe, especially in Spain, perhaps with Iberian federalism reemerging as part of that programme.
Iberian federalism is not popular in Portugal (even though in moments of economic crisis, some people look at it), and would be even less in 1974/75.
 
Last edited:
Top