Communist North Italy

I was wondering today of what was the possibility of a Communist/Socialist Northern Italy following 1944/45, for example, if the Soviets were to perform better on the Eastern Front and take over most of northern Italy (As far south as Firenze and as far west as the French border). Who would be the major political and military figures? Would a proxy war or a Korean War style situation occur on the Italian peninsula?
 

AStanley

Banned
Maybe the 1946 Referendum is really close (Florida 2000 esque), and both sides call foul, eventually settling on a settlement where the Monarchist's rule the South (and maybe Tripolitania?) and a Republic is made in the north.

Maybe the Communists take over in this new Northern Italy (Communist support would be concentrated up north, and they would be balanced in government by more conservative Southern parties)
 

Cook

Banned
A Communist Partisan takeover would be far more likely than the Red Army reaching Italy; any collapse by the Germans on the Eastern front to the extent that the Red Army is making significant gains is going to result in troops being stripped from other fronts, which would mean less resistance to the allies on the Italian and western fronts and resulting in their accelerated advances also.
 
So maybe in late 1944, early 1945 as partisan takeovers in Greece and Yugoslavia begins, the same in Italy happens?
 
I think what you need is no Operation Husky, no invasion of Italy etc. But even before that you need to prevent the rapid disintegration of Fascist Italy. Which probably means delaying the Italian entry into the war for a while.

In fact it might be better to just avoid the war at all.

So maybe after the war the Fascist regime tumbles on for a few more years then is overthrown in revolution for whatever reason, ether due to decay or from having joined the war late(ish) then backing out and signing a negotiated peace. Or whatever.

The Italian Communists try to take power during the revolution. And the entire mess just spirals down into civil war from there with the USSR and NATO backing their respective sides with the Fascist remnant as the third wheel.

With the west to tired to directly try to solve the problem with force an agreement for a partitioned Italy is agreed, with communist north and monarchic South.

France would be the one most against having a communist neighbor. But if you tie them down enough in Algeria, and the left in France being highly against war, maybe throw in some failed interventions, then you might be able to get the French to give up as well.

Not very plausible i suppose. But its probably as plausible as having the USSR take over North Italy by force in WW2. :eek:
 
A Communist Partisan takeover would be far more likely than the Red Army reaching Italy; any collapse by the Germans on the Eastern front to the extent that the Red Army is making significant gains is going to result in troops being stripped from other fronts, which would mean less resistance to the allies on the Italian and western fronts and resulting in their accelerated advances also.
Cook's scenario works better than mine really. Maybe if the Western Allies have a lot of trouble proceeding in Southern Italy, or maybe they just stop the Italian campaign after Husky.
 
Cook's scenario works better than mine really. Maybe if the Western Allies have a lot of trouble proceeding in Southern Italy, or maybe they just stop the Italian campaign after Husky.

Or the overthrow of Mussolini goes worse than it did (Mussolini maybe escapes arrest altogether) and the Italian front goes much slower for the allies. By the time the war enters its latest stage and the Germans continue to relocate troops to the Eastern Front from occupying Italy, a pro-Soviet revolt takes place, and establishes a government there. Perhaps at Yalta Stalin could demand an occupation zone or a protectorate in Northern Italy if that happens, ensuring its sovereignty.
 
The book Target Switzerland (IIRC) mentions something about Tito possibly crossing into Italy proper and establishing a Communist government there.

They did get into Trieste OTL, but they didn't stay long.
 
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