Okay I've done this to both South Korea and South Vietnam, now for Japan: what if Soviet intervention in Operation Downfall went even worse and wankier than in For All Time, and somehow cause all of the main Japanese islands to go communist? (Assume that a mass local uprising occurs against the monarchy, not just the Soviets somehow do this all by themselves). Or, this could happen post-WWII, with just a Soviet-backed communist uprising against the U.S. occupation. Could the Allies attempt to relocate democratic and moderate forces to Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands? Will this really suck for the inhabitants?
Communist Japanese "mainland", democratic Ryukyus
- Thread starter Strategos' Risk
- Start date
Why the lack of interest? Having Asian countries (and Germany) being divided between pro-U.S. and pro-Soviet factions is old hat, especially in AH. Why not Okinawa?
One issue - the Imperial Japanese government had repressed the Communists (and the socialists, and a good deal of the Japanese left in general) in the 1920s and 1930s. I could see a revolution against the kokutai if the US had maintained a blockade strategy rather than nukes or an invasion, but I doubt it would be a Communist revolution.
(Posting with little of value to say, just showing some interest)
I think, if we have a democratic Korea/South Korea, this could be pretty interesting. Much much more millitant South Korea?
It'd be interesting too to see which way Japan goes in the event of a Sino-Soviet split. Both in close proximity, but perhaps the USSR has more to offer in terms of raw materials?
It'd be interesting to see how both of their economies function respectivley, neither of them having much in the way of raw materials, but the Ryukus possibly reciving a ton of US aid along with I'm guessing in the event of some part of Korea holding, more US/NATO millatery bases.
Depending on when this happens as well, it could reinforce the US' will to stop the spread of communism in Asia?
(/post)
I think, if we have a democratic Korea/South Korea, this could be pretty interesting. Much much more millitant South Korea?
It'd be interesting too to see which way Japan goes in the event of a Sino-Soviet split. Both in close proximity, but perhaps the USSR has more to offer in terms of raw materials?
It'd be interesting to see how both of their economies function respectivley, neither of them having much in the way of raw materials, but the Ryukus possibly reciving a ton of US aid along with I'm guessing in the event of some part of Korea holding, more US/NATO millatery bases.
Depending on when this happens as well, it could reinforce the US' will to stop the spread of communism in Asia?
(/post)
More than likely, a Soviet aligned state. Having been liberated by the Soviets, it would more likely fall under their influence. Reason why countries like Yugoslavia and PRC broke were because the Soviets weren't in their territory. Plus, a post war Japan is going to be a hell of a lot more battered and China isn't going to offer much, especially after all the bad blood...
loughery111
Banned
Seems likely that they'd get swamped with refugees from the Home Islands a la Taiwan in 1949. End result is probably that the US-backed Japanese outnumber the locals or at least make up a large enough minority to retain control. I'd say that if Korea breaks down as IOTL, they're going to get a miniature version of the same economic boom that Japan saw, as they're the key (read: only) logistical link in keeping UN forces in Korea supplied... I can see South Korea being a LOT more paranoid ITTL, though.
Bearcat
Banned
I'm thinking a more likely POD is earlier. No European war, no southern opportunity for the IJA in China, and they just can't stop fucking with the bear. Eventually they bite off more than they can chew, and Zhukov crushes them in Manchuria, then the USSR invades Japan, moving down the chain. The Soviet Navy isn't strong enough, even after two years of war, and cannot interfere with a Taiwan-like flight of the government into Okinawan exile. End Game: a chastened, weak Japanese remnant allies with the US for protection.
The problem with the above post is that in order for the USSR to be able to invade Japan, you have to have the IJN out of the way. If Japan "messes with the bear", as you put it, it wouldn't be messing with the Eagle and thus wouldn't have lost it's whole navy. Zhukov could smash into Manchuria and Korea, but the IJN would prevent any invasion of the Japanese islands themselves.
Gregory Nero Arken
Banned
Most would think of the Kuriles, Hokkaido, Karafuto, and the planned Soviet zone to be the communist state. Perhaps resurrecting that Republic of Ezo thing. I don't suppose that Russia would donate Sakhalin of Kamchatka to prop up the state or add more Russians for influence reasons. They would probably annex everything but Hokkaido, and only if they though they couldn't play it against the rest of Japan. Really depends if the rest is headed by the Emperor, a Prime Minister, a President, a strongman, or a Military Governor.
Bearcat
Banned
I was thinking two years, for Soviet Naval Aviation to burn through Japan's pilots and then win air superiority, then sink any heavy fleet units that might interfere. USSR invading Japan in 1941 is ASB; by second to early third year of a war, its a little more plausible. It will still be expensive, but Stalin being Stalin, the reward is worth the expense.
Stalin being Stalin, invading Japan is not worth the expense. Stalin tended to be cautious. I imagine he'd have been content with Korea and Manchuria, and wouldn't have wanted to waste the resources building up a sufficiently-strong naval aviation arm; there's still Europe to deal with, after all.
Gregory Nero Arken
Banned
However would he annex those if the Mao didn't come out on top? What land would he take, do you think?
Bearcat
Banned
As I said earlier, this requires an early POD so no European War.
An open water port on the Pacific, rather than easily bottled up Vladivostok, is a prize.
NothingNow
Banned
Which maybe also holds the Ryukus, Izu islands and the Ogasawara subprefecture in addition to a few smaller areas on/near the mainland?
EDIT: Although I could see the US annexing the Izus and Ogasarawa for one reason or another if the home islands become communists.(imo very unlikely)
Bump for a cool read.
Alternatively: Why couldn't the U.S. have demanded the Japanese release the Ryukyu islands after WWII, making them independent?
Alternatively: Why couldn't the U.S. have demanded the Japanese release the Ryukyu islands after WWII, making them independent?
Sumeragi
Banned
Relocate who? There isn't enough room to do anything in the Ryukyus around that time. If the US was "lenient" enough to allow the main islands to go communist, it'll probably just let its Asian commitment go to hell.
But supposing that it does happen.... I see the Ryukyus becoming something like Puerto Rico.