Communist Indonesia

What impact would a communist Indonesia firmly in the Soviet camp have had on the geopolitical, economic, and military dynamics of the cold war?


For this to happen I imagine Suharto would have to be prevented from gaining power and more or less annihilating a generation of Indonesian communists. Instead, in this ATL, the events of 9/30/65 turn out differently and Suharto and his backers somehow end up not being able to carry out their purge or gain power. The PKI steadily increases its influence with the Sukarno regime and eventually replaces him with their own leader. By the late 60s or early 70s Indonesia enters into formal defense and economic treaties with the USSR. I'm not exactly sure how the 9/30 affair could've gone differently, but maybe someone who knows more could point out how.


Plausible or ASB?
 
Last edited:
Hard to pull off- the communists certainly had more support than they did in Malaysia but they were still one among a number of factions. A large and serious insurgency is possible but I doubt you could get a situation where Communists successfully take over the Indonesian government.
 
This would certainly mean Australian Defence Policy would be tightly focused against Indonesia, more so than it was. Depending on US policy (butterflies?) there could be permanent American bases in Northern Australia as reassurances. This of course would mark another step in the "another SEA nation falls to communism" argument in the US.
 

Cook

Banned
There is a claim that Suharto’s name was actually on the original death list of 30 September 1965 but missed by someone when copying it out for the various hit teams that killed the other generals.

Without Suharto available to get a quick grip on things perhaps the Revolutionary Council may have been able to consolidate their grip on power. Aidit and the PKI could have either taken over from Bung karno or left him as a powerless figurehead.

At the very least I would imagine the Nuclear Reactor at Jervis Bay being completed.
 
Hmm. In 1965 Johnson is POTUS; perhaps instead of (heck, in addition to) intensifying the Vietnam war he would launch one to save relatively nearby Indonesia from Communism?

Indonesia controls an important global trade chokepoint.

The results of US intervention I'm not prepared to speculate on.
 
Actually, it is no longer a conspiracy but common knowledge that Suharto masterminded the G30S 'coup' attempt that killed the generals. General Suharto's soldiers were the one that did it and then used the Communist Party of Indonesia (the largest non-ruling communist party at the time) as a scapegoat. Sukarno gave temporary power to Suharto soon afterwards but things spiraled out of control and Suharto took the Presidency for himself So basically, he killed two birds (Communists and rival Generals) with one stone and made himself president.

As for communist Indonesia, I say go pre-WWII. Some hints: many Indonesian politicians from Sumatra tended to be left wing.
 
As for communist Indonesia, I say go pre-WWII. Some hints: many Indonesian politicians from Sumatra tended to be left wing.

Are you suggesting it go Red before WWII, or just that the seeds are planted? If the former, remember Indonesia was near the top of Japan's hit list. If it is in the Soviet sphere that just ups the chances for the Japanese fighting the Soviets in 1941 instead of 1945.
 
Are you suggesting it go Red before WWII, or just that the seeds are planted? If the former, remember Indonesia was near the top of Japan's hit list. If it is in the Soviet sphere that just ups the chances for the Japanese fighting the Soviets in 1941 instead of 1945.

I mean make the POD pre-WWII. Probably in the 1920's when ideological groups were just starting to organize in the East Indies. Post WWII too many Indonesians were anti-communist. I don't exactly know why, though.
 
No 1926 revolt would mean that the ISDV could develop further without a clamp down and could develop further and be stronger before attempting to take control of the Dutch East Indies.

So I say have them wait, grow a fair amount, go underground during WWII and be the main resistance force against the Japanese. The country goes Communist when it forms in the years soon after WWII.
 
Hmm. In 1965 Johnson is POTUS; perhaps instead of (heck, in addition to) intensifying the Vietnam war he would launch one to save relatively nearby Indonesia from Communism?

Indonesia controls an important global trade chokepoint.

The results of US intervention I'm not prepared to speculate on.

Good thought, but in 1965, escalation in Viet Nam was already under way. Possible intervention? Maybe, but I would suspect that any intervention (if any) would be channeled through someone else, most likely Australia.

bobinleipsic
 
If it becomes Communist in 1965, where it stands on the Sino-Soviet split could be very interesting. If it's in the Soviet camp, China becomes even more surrounded than OTL, with potential Soviet naval bases to the north and south. This could either force China into line, since the Soviets could completely cut off China's oil supplies, or it could push the Chinese even further into American arms. Either way, this could have major effects on the split. I especially like the latter option, since it effectively cuts off North Vietnam from Soviet aid.

Here's an idea: what if Johnson, seeing the Chinese get even more pissed at the Soviets, signs an agreement with Mao where both sides stop supporting their proxies in Vietnam, in exchange for some kind of US aid to China? The US would effectively be trading Vietnam for China. That's a very good trade IMO, and wonder if Johnson would be far-sighted enough to try for it.

In the first case,then I think it's likely that the US starts to get closer to India, since they will be getting very nervous at being effectively surrounded by Soviet satellites on all sides. This could have very interesting effects as well.

How realistic are either of these scenarios?
 
Top