Communist Hokkaido

First post here, so apologies if this has came up before.

Anyway, in OTL the Soviets tried to occupy Hokkaido after Japan's surrender, but Truman put a stop to it. But what if the Soviets got their wish, and occupied Hokkaido. Would they grant it independence as a puppet state, ala Korean and Germany, or would they expel the Japanese population and annex it as part of Russia? And how would this effect the Korean war, and the cold war in general?
 
They didn't try to occupy it they tried to invade it and they might just annex it outright.

This would likely cause a serious rice famine in Japan.
 
I don't think they would annex it. It would likely end up as a People's Republic of Japan. It would probably have much more direct involvement by the Soviet Union than North Korea historically had too, as it would be a hot political topic being a core territory of a former great power (like East and West Germany), rather than a newly freed country that has just got it's independence and has internal problems with what the new rule should look like (like how the Koreas and Vietnams were seen).
 
Operation Downfall

The book of that title analysed the near-invasion of Kyushu and Honshu and the Roosevelt plans for Manchuria, Sakhalin and Hokkaido to be invaded by Stalin. This was not required because of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki detonations.

In passing, the invasions of Kyushu and the Tokyo Plain were assessed by the medical planners to require preparations for 470,000 Allied casualties in the short term and an unestimated number of Japanese. Also at risk were 100,000 POWs in Asia and 70,000 in Japan itself. Taking Okinawa as an example, millions of Japanese would have been killed, rather than the 210,000 killed by the nukes.

The book points out that, before Hirohito's recording was broadcast, there were four attempts to stage a coup when surrender proposals were agreed. It was only the loyal guards of the Imperial Palace who prevented the most successful attempt from seizing the Imperial Family.

My father, along with other Normandy veterans, was on Embarkation Leave in Calcutta for the invasion of Japan, when the word of the surrender came through. Without the surrender, the odds of him being killed on the beaches near Tokyo were very high.
 
The Soviet Union blockades West Berlin, sealing off access to it... in retaliation the US blockades Hokkaido.

That's all I could come up with.
 
All Soviet requests for any occupation of Japan, even a presence in Tokyo a la Berlin were firmly rejected. Given the timing of the Soviet declaration of war against Japan, all but the most deluded realized it had to do with territorial grab rather than anything else. The only way the Soviets get Hokkaido is if Japan is invaded by the US (with UK/Aussie support) and the Soviets manage to get a sufficient force to Hokkaido & occupy it & then refuse to leave. Their ability to do this depends on the timeline before Japan surrenders, Hokkaido was relatively lightly defended but not undefended and the ability of the Soviets to move much of an amphibious force was limited and they had no experience in the Pacific, and only limited amphibious experience in the west. Air support would have to come from airstrips the Sovs had over-run and fixed in southern Sakhalin until they had a significant lodgement in Hokkaido.

Again, depending on timing could happen, and would be very bloody as the Sovs would not be in a position to use overwhelming firepower to counter Japanese suicide tactics but rather would have to use up a lot of infantry.
 
Okay, I'm bumping this thread because I've just restumbled upon the history of the Japanese Communist Party.

I think we can agree, that the most plausible way for this to happen is without Japanese surrender. Operation Downfall happens and the U.S. invades Honshu and the Soviets invade Hokkaido and disputes arise. Now with that, we need to have a leader...

Nosaka Sanzo was the co-founder of the Japanese Communist Party. During the Sino-Japanese war he was friends with Mao and fought in the PLA with him. As it turns it, he helped Stalin during the great purge. He would have been most likely Hokkaido's Kim il-Sung. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_Party

OTL Nosaka lived until the 90's, so if the DPRJ survives the Sino-Soviet split, they would most likely side with the China. Which would make for a very, very interesting Cold war.
 
But today Hokkaido has some 5.5 million inhabitants which is a quarter of North Korea. How significant could it really be in the Cold War? (especially if it turns into a NK style regime which means a smaller population)
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
The significance Hokkaido would have on the Cold War (beside a stronger Soviet or at least Sovietic presence in the Pacific) would be the effects on Japan. Hokkaido has nearly one fourth of Japan's total arable land, ranks first in Japan's production of wheat, soybeans, potatoes, sugar beet, onions, pumpkins, corn, raw milk, beef, and other agricultural products. Hokkaido also accounts for 22% of Japan's forests and boasts a sizable timber industry. Not to mention all the aquaculture in Hokkaido.

So what you've got is a Japan with almost a quarter of its agricultural resources gone. That's going to have massive butterflies with regards to post-War development, population growth, etc.

Personally, I'd love to see a TL about this.
 
As Onkel is hinting the trouble really is that Hokkaido 'sucks'.
It looks nice and big on a map but if the rest of Japan is Germany its Finland. Big and unpopulated and...well not too great.
With North Korea/South Korea you have a pretty even split, with East Germany/West Germany too the difference isn't THAT enourmous (at first anyway).
With North Japan/South Japan though....Its like Oregon and Washington claiming to be the true (communist) USA.

Wolfpaw's stats are technically correct however this is mainly just because the rest of Japan is so well developed. If you have all the best land covered in human settlement then you have to use the outlying forests for farming.

This would certainly weaken Japan and the moral effect and the effects on the development of Japan would be very interesting but its not going to be too big of a coup for the eastern block from a entirely 'strategy gamers' perspective.
 

Susano

Banned
Well, its true in a way that Hokkaido isnt worth much. Japan improts mot of its food anyways, so it could also import just more of it. Maybe even from Hokkaido, there was some trade between the German states as well after all, and Communist Hokkaido wont have much else economy... So, yes, purely in terms of statistic and ressources it wont matter much.

But in psychologcial and political terms it will have a huge effect on Japan.
 
Stalin probably could have taken Hokkaido just by landing a division of paratroopers, and have them dig in and wait for Japan's surrender.

The best use for Hokkaido would be to trade for West Berlin. There would be other conditions of course. For example Hokkaido must be demilitarized. If that's agreed to the whole Berlin Airlift would never happen and perhaps the Cold War is not so cold.
 
Hokkaido itself is unlikely to be sufficent enough to warrant a communist state onto itself, or any state for that matter. It is either likely to be directly annexed and administered within the Soviet Union similliar to how Tanna Tuva was , or it will be used as a bargining chip like the Soviets did in Austria, turning Japan into a completely nuetral country with neither Soviet or American / any UN or Nato prescence allowed there, though it would be considerabley more difficult for the Soviets to enforce as opposed to Austria.
 
I would say 99% chance of it being a bargain chip. Hokkaidou is extremely important to Japan in terms of natural resources and food production, but to the USSR it is next to useless.

In OTL the so called "northern territories" has a propaganda group calling for its return to Japan from Russia. One of the reasons they cite is that overcrowded Japan could really use the extra land, while Russia has no use of it, other than a few military bases. ITTL, that movement would target Hokkaidou and be immensely more popular, perhaps enough to offset Japanese postwar pacifism.
 
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