Communist Brazil

[Hvalrossen]

With a POD in 1900 was there any possibility of Brazil becoming Communist? What is likely path for Brazil becoming communist, election, revolution or something else?

How would a Brazilian communist state function compared with other communist countries?

How would the world react to a communist Brazil?

How would a communist Brazil control its borders?

 

[DocJamore]

Could be interesting if this happened in a world without the Russian revolution and the first communist uprisings occur in Latin America instead.

 

[Toraach]

How would a Brazilian communist state function compared with other communist countries?

It is a simple question. People's Democratic Socialist Federative Republic of Brazil would function as any other communist country, that's bad. If the Brazilians were lucky enough, they wouldn't have collectivization, and small farmers would continue to cultivate their small holdings, that's still better than being in the kolkhoz. I know that, from experiences of my country were my forefathers were lucky to not being collectivized, so their lives were much better that it would have been in a kolkhoz.

 

[Arkenfolm]

They'd need a revolution, which would be a brutal civil war like the many revolts during the Old Republic of Brazil on steroids. The United States and probably other powers would step in to supply the anti-communist side with plenty of arms, ammunition, and other support. If the communists still won, then they're pretty safe, but they face diplomatic isolation since Argentina, Uruguay, and other neighbours will do everything they can to prevent communism from spreading and they'll receive American support to do so. This isolation will hurt the Brazilian economy quite a bit.

 

[Hvalrossen]

They'd need a revolution, which would be a brutal civil war like the many revolts during the Old Republic of Brazil on steroids. The United States and probably other powers would step in to supply the anti-communist side with plenty of arms, ammunition, and other support. If the communists still won, then they're pretty safe, but they face diplomatic isolation since Argentina, Uruguay, and other neighbours will do everything they can to prevent communism from spreading and they'll receive American support to do so. This isolation will hurt the Brazilian economy quite a bit.

Maybe this economically weakened Brazil could assist in the drug trade? Then they could get a source of currency for trade. The Brazilian state could either be directly involved in the drug trade or just ignore and deny it. It will probably be difficult to guard against illegal traffick across the border, becouse the borders is so big, and large sections are in isolated areas.

 

[Arkenfolm]

Maybe this economically weakened Brazil could assist in the drug trade? Then they could get a source of currency for trade. The Brazilian state could either be directly involved in the drug trade or just ignore and deny it. It will probably be difficult to guard against illegal traffick across the border, becouse the borders is so big, and large sections are in isolated areas.

Obviously they wouldn't want to be directly involved in the drug trade or openly support it, since that's horrible PR, but covert support and turning a blind eye is a given. Whatever drug Brazil exports (cocaine, marijuana, opium) will take a high profile in global movements against drug trafficking (like the contemporary fight against opium) since it's so easy to link it to communism.

Argentina will benefit big time from this. As Brazil's rival, they'll get a lot of support from the United States and Britain which will benefit their economy.

 

[Hvalrossen]

Obviously they wouldn't want to be directly involved in the drug trade or openly support it, since that's horrible PR, but covert support and turning a blind eye is a given. Whatever drug Brazil exports (cocaine, marijuana, opium) will take a high profile in global movements against drug trafficking (like the contemporary fight against opium) since it's so easy to link it to communism.

Argentina will benefit big time from this. As Brazil's rival, they'll get a lot of support from the United States and Britain which will benefit their economy.

The biggest losers in this drug trafe would likely be the indiginous peoples in isolated areas like the Amazonas. Here drug cartels would grow and traffic their produce. I doubt a communist state is going to give natives special rights to land over other citizens.

 

[David T]

Neither of these scenarios is very likely, but they're the best I can think of:

(1) The tenente revolts of the 1920's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tenentism succeed, Prestes emerges as the leader of the nation, and (as in OTL) eventually turns to Communism. This would however require that he have the same authority over his followers that, say Fidel Castro had over his, and which would enable Prestes, like Castro, to convert them to a Marxist-Leninist ideology they did not originally profess. I doubt that Prestes would have that authority over a successful tenente movement.

(2) Goulart defeats the planned military coup, and decides that he will never be safe until the social basis of "reaction" is wiped out. He moves from left-populism to outright Communism. This is even less likely than (1).

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

You can't have a world in which the USA is both on the winning side of World War 2 and anti-communist for Brazil to be communist. OK, you got Cuba, but you need the USSR to get nukes into Brazil just in the nick of time combined with an unusually inept American response for something like that so I suspect Cuba was a one-off. Now you can change either or both the USA being anti-communist and winning World War 2 but that changes tons of other things.

Now maybe before World War 2 there is a chance, if you change a bunch of the personalities involved.

This board tends to exaggerate the chances of Communists taking over countries. If you look at the actual Communist take-overs, they fall into a pattern of 1) Russia (1917), 2) China (1949), 3) anti-colonialist movements where the anti-colonialist movements were backed by the USSR and China or 4) countries conquered by the Red Army. The problem is that Brazil doesn't fall into any of these categories. Cuba, not incidentally, did, it was to all intents and purposes an American colony before Castro. The Portuguese African colonies also did. But I don't see how you get a Communist Brazil when your sole instance of a Latin American communist country is Cuba, under really special circumstances.