Communist Afghanistan survives to the Present Day

What if Afghanistan kept its communist government? Say the Soviets wipe out the Islamists during the invasion.

Would Afghans be better off today? Would there be a war on terror?
 
The problem was that Communist government lacked legitimacy to many of the Afghani people. It took steps to promote state atheism, botched its economic policies (despite intending to help poor peasants, but when do Communists not botch the economy?), and imposed a police state that was harsher than before.

It is these conditions that provoked resistance. Islamism was simply the form that the resistance took. It took that because 1) Islam clearly separated the rebels from the regime, and 2) Islam enabled the rebels to attract support from outsiders, such as their coreligionists in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, as India was a de facto "ally" of the Soviet Union, any Communist government would be considered to be dangerous to the Pakistani government which has always attempted to control/dominate Afghanistan.

Even if the communist government decimates the rebels, I still see an ongoing civil war albeit one of lower intensity. Afghanistan's mountainous terrain makes it very easy for people to hide. And there will be continued foreign support (even if the US decides not to sponsor it anymore). The rebels slowly rebuild, and then the government is threatened again. The Soviets are going to cut their losses sooner or later. They just don't have the money in the 1990s to keep supplying the Kabul regime. Its going to be left to their own devices and internal revenue against a force receiving support from Pakistan and the Gulf oil states.

The question is whether the communist government can 1) reverse all its policies that are provoking people into rebellion, and 2) can build legitimacy if it does so. I have very strong doubts that it can do so.

However, there is always the possibility that the government could pull it off. If the rebels are heavily defeated, they may have several years of breathing space. If they negotiate with the other countries who are sponsoring the rebels, they might come to some sort of agreement which stops outside aide, includes some rebels in a coalition government, and changes many of their policies. It would be very hard to call it a Communist government then, and it's highly unlikely.

If it doesn't do any reforms, find some way to bolster their legitimacy, and doesn't stop the other regional players from supporting the rebels, it's just ongoing civil war and turmoil that erodes the government's ability to control the longer it goes on.
 
IF you look at the bombing campaigns and the huge refugee problems OTL, the idea of a goverment victory in Afganistan seems likely to involve huge loss of life and displacement of large portions of the population.

And a harsh reign of terror to prevent the next generation from rising up as they grow up.

War of Terror?

Mmm, thing is, Islamic fundamentalism has been rising for some time. If the Soviets manage to end significant fighting in Afganistan, then these impulses would turn elsewhere. Hell, mayber even if fighting were to continue there anyways.
 
Najibullah actually managed to remain in power until 1992, well after the Soviets withdrew. Perhaps if you can prevent the all-out civil war from restarting at that point, he could still be in power as a strongman, although he'd likely be only as "Communist" as the ex-communist leaders of the ex-Soviet "Stans."
 
The problem is that I doubt that a Communist Afghanistan with this sort of POD will ever live up to its moniker. Assuming it did happen, however, and the Communists ran Afghanistan with some success, I wonder what its relations would be like with China.
 
The Communists were a small coterie of Kabul elites completely ignorant of the rest of Afghanistan. They were also incredibly murderous and utterly incompetent. It's asking a lot for them to stay in power past Soviet intervention.
 
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