My TL outline has the Germans building many merchantmen in the interwar years (just one of the effects of the 1919 POD), and this will allow for some things I have always wondered about to be discussed.
1) What if Germany builds and SELLS vast numbers of merchant ships, all identical? If these ships are sold to many nations, then one cannot just assume that a ship of 'such and such' a type is a German 'Q' ship. This would IMHO make the disguise capabilities all the more effective, as many nations will be operating identical ships as the Germans.
Good idea but who´s going to order and buy these merchant ships?
There´s the competition from British, American and etc. shipyards. There´s also the fact that so soon after the war shipping lines from (former) Entente countries will hesitate to buy ships in Germany. If only because of public opinion.
So that leaves mainly neutral countries as potential customers. Which means the ships either have to be better than those from competing shipyards or cheaper. Can Germany do either of those things?
Certainly the German government can´t support the export of ships with subsidies. Versailles treaty reparations you know.
And I doubt the Entente countries would accept lot´s of merchant ships as part of the reparations. Shipyards in those countries would loudly complain.
2) What if Germany builds up its shipbuilding capacity, but with an almost all merchant ship program? Germany has a much higher capacity by 1935 than OTL, which is when my TL has them starting "The Great Gamble".
See above.
I like the idea. And the German shipping lines certainly need lots of new ships for those lost during and after WW1. Some sales to neutrals are also possible. But more?
Don´t you think that German shipyards in our TL already tried that approach? Why should they be more successful here that in our TL?
3) Submarines I am not sure how to approach, as I cannot see Germany either going all out in their pre-war building program (without causing a massive allied counter-building program), nor can I see Germany ignoring the submarine fleet just because they cannot hope to build them secretly.
Probably the same approach as in our TL.
Create an engineer (design and construction) company in a friendly neutral country. The Netherlands (might be the best choice), Sweden or Finland.
If the German navy is interested in long-range merchant raider designs, then I suspect that the result in the 1930s won´t be our TLs type VII submarine but more the type IX or an evolution of the U-cruisers of WW1.
(The Dutch might be the best choice because they are also interested in long-range submarines because of the Dutch East Indies.)
4) Naval aviation. Nuff said.
Definitely.
The German navy in WW1 already had their own naval aviation. Land based planes, sea planes and construction of an hybrid sea plane tender / aircraft carrier had already started (Ausonia) late in WW1.
So, what are the major warships designs for Germany to plan on building (when the time comes), for her surface fleet circa 1920? I have seen some posts that broach info that is new to me, especially about the reasons for the differing main armament layout.
Now that is a hard question given the Versailles Treaty limits.
We already mentioned AMCs and submarines. Both a good idea.
In the early 1920s the Germans would probably think about "WW1 small (= light) cruisers". Long-range and with at least 15 cm (5.9 inch) guns. Relatively "cheap" and easy to build.
Then comes the Washington Naval Treaty, introducing the treaty (heavy) cruiser. As fast as a light cruiser but more heavily armed.
Followed by improvements in naval diesel engines in the mid 1920s.
These two facts alone probably would force a major rethink about German naval designs.
So the our TL Panzerschiffe of late 1920s / early 1930s design do make some sense. Heavier armed than cruisers and faster than battleships (more numerous than battle cruisers). With long-range diesel engines.
Your German navy in the early 1930s though faces a few problems that need to be solved:
- They probably need a few capital ships to keep the attention of the British home fleet. Otherwise the British could just use most of them to escort convoys.
- If they develop dedicated long-range naval ships as raiders they should also design the naval supply ships needed for that (for example the Dithmarchen class naval supply ships).
Saying anything else would be speculation.
I´d need to know more about the political situation in the late 1920s / early 1930s. For instance:
- Are the Versailles Treaty limitations still in force? If not, why not? And what is the new arrangement?
- For example are the British and French diverted by actions elsewhere (USSR, Japan)?
- Could the Germans gain some carrier aviation experience from some other nation?
- What kind of Germany do you envision in 1935?