Comeback Kids

I will say that Gandhi will leave office sometime in the 2000s, since this is the primary plotline. What happens in the US is... TBA.

Regarding ALMH: that will be kicked off soon.
 
My own schedule and agenda this year will be the three Cs: Constitution, caucus, and communications. If we can focus on the substance of the constitution, spend time holding the parliamentary caucus together- and that can be a permanent job in itself- and communicate to the country we may just be able to put together a package that will fly. There has not been great improvement in the national mood these past six months. If a referendum were a called today in Quebec I think it would pass. Likewise, if a referendum were held across the country calling for the endorsement of any proposal that seemed conciliatory to Quebec, it would be rejected. It is almost as if Canadians- whose entire existence has relied on honourable compromise- have come to eschew the notion as being weak-willed, unprincipled and lacking in leadership. As I headed back to work in early January the first items on my agenda involved a major change in personnel. Yves Fortier, who had served Canada with such distinction and value as ambassador to the United Nations- particularly when Canada took a seat on the Security Council and remained there throughout the Gulf War- was returning to private life, with my deep gratitude. On January 27, Finance Minister Don Mazankowski announced that the federal deficit would be $31 billion higher- at $31.5 billion total, than forecast. In our balanced approach to deficit reduction my government strove to maintain and enhance areas of vital national importance such as culture, communications, health and welfare. At the same time the Reform Party’s Preston Manning was soothingly telling Canadians he would cut government spending 15% across the board. My caucus went silent when I described what would happen under Manning’s proposals. “It would lead to the closure of CFB Borden in Ontario, hasten the end of Medicare, see the closing of veterans’ hospitals, and the reductions in veterans’ payments and old-age pensions.”
- Memoirs

Prime Minister Mulroney confers with Government House Leader Lucien Bouchard and Deputy Prime Minister Don Mazankowski during Question Period. [CBC]
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In the last few days of the campaign, Tsongas and I had a heated disagreement over economic policy. I had proposed a four-point plan to create jobs, help businesses get started and reduce poverty and income inequality: cut the deficit in half in four years, with spending reductions and tax increases on the wealthiest Americans; increase investment in education, training and new technologies; expand trade; and cut taxes modestly for the middle class and a lot more for the working poor. We had done our best to cost out each proposal, using figures from the Congressional Budget Office. In contrast to my plan, Tsongas said we should just focus on cutting the deficit, and that the country couldn’t afford the middle-class tax cut, though he was for a cut in the capital gains tax, which would benefit wealthy Americans most. He called me a “pander bear” for proposing the tax cuts. He said he’d be the best friend Wall Street ever had. I shot back that we needed a New Democrat that helped both Wall Street and Main Street, business and working families. A lot of people agreed with Tsongas that the deficit was too big for my tax cuts, but I thought we had to something about the two-decade growth in income inequality and the shift of the tax burden to the middle class in the 1980s. On Election Night, February 18, Paul Tsongas won with 35%, but I finished a strong second with 30%, well ahead of Kerrey with 12% and Harkin and Brown at 9%. The media dubbed me the “Comeback Kid”. I had come to love New Hampshire, to appreciate its idiosyncrasies and to respect the seriousness of its voters, even those who chose someone else. The state had had put me through the paces and made me a better candidate. New Hampshire demonstrated how deeply the American people wanted their country to change. The President’s approval ratings had dropped below 50 percent for the first time since the Gulf War. Although he still led both Paul Tsongas and I in the polls, the Democratic nomination was clearly worth having.

Gov. Bill Clinton (D-AR) and Sen. Paul Tsongas (D-MA) confer before their Chicago economic debate, Feb. 21. [LIFE]
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Attn: Rt. Hon. Rajiv Gandhi, Prime Minister of India
1 S. Road, Delhi, India
27 February 1992

Rajiv,

It was nice to hear from you last week regarding July’s upcoming Conference- I have spoken to Keating & the free movement treaties will be #1 on the agenda. However we do not yet know who will be our British counterpart: polls say Smith is a strong favourite to win in the UK which puts a damper on any hope of an FTA as you had previously indicated. The new UK govt will be committed to the Commonwealth & if nothing else I am grateful that this revolving door will stop spinning while the Tories sort out their very public feuding on the opposition benches. It will do them good to resolve all ideological & personal conflicts, especially on the European question. I expect our negotiators to have finished the draft FTA by September with ratification & signing in October-November. As you know if the new constitution passes I will be retiring at year’s end, having already delayed it for a year- had Meech passed I’d have left 6 months ago. As it is we are having great difficulties selling the new one: but this time with amenable partners there will be no need for a referendum. George B is in stormy waters heading into November & you should continue pushing for ratification- as we know a Democratic Congress will make ratification a major headache, even if their leading contenders are pro-business centrists like yourself. NAFTA is nearly finished up & ratification will take place during the summer without much ado. On your decisions to leave the NAM and Socialist International to join the CDI: excellent plan & now no one has any doubt as to the party’s ideological orientation. I will try to visit this summer- I have been busy with the Gulf fallout & you with your 1st 100 days, but now there will be time before the Conference, which might be our last face-to-face meeting while I am in office.
All the best to Sonia, the kids and yourself,
Brian

“Frankly, I would have been shocked had we won.”
- David Cameron interview with Robin Day, 20xx

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Smith Ministry
Deputy Prime Minister: Margaret Beckett
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Gordon Brown
Home Secretary: Tony Blair
Foreign Secretary: Jack Cunningham
...
Cabinet's Planning & Priorities group confers in No 10. Home Secretary Tony Blair presents a brief, while the Prime Minister, Margaret Beckett and Gordon Brown look on. [BBC]
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On March 12, I spoke in Macomb County, near Detroit, the prototypical home of the Reagan Democrats, voters who had been lured away from our party by Reagan’s anti-government, strong-defence, tough-on-crime message. In fact, these suburban voters had begun voting Republican during the 1960s, because they thought the Democrats no longer shared their values of work and family, and were too concerned with social programs, which they tended to see as taking their tax money and giving it to wasteful bureaucrats. I told a full house at Macomb County Community College that I would give them a new Democratic Party, with economic and social policies based on opportunity for and responsibility from all citizens. That included corporate executives earning huge salaries without regard to their performance, working people who refused to upgrade their skills, and poor people on welfare who could work. Then I told them we couldn’t succeed unless they were willing to reach out across racial lines to work with all people who shared those values. They had to stop voting along the racial divide, because “the problems are not racial in nature. This is an issue of economics, of values.” The next day I gave the same message to a few hundred black ministers and other activists at the Reverend Odell Jones’ Pleasant Grove Baptist Church in inner-city Detroit. I told the black audience, many of whom had Arkansan roots, that I had challenged the white voters of Macomb County to reach across the racial divide, and now I was challenging them to do the same, by accepting the responsibility part of my agenda, including welfare reform, tough child-support enforcement, and anti-crime efforts that would promote the values of family, work and safety in their neighbourhoods. The twin speeches got quite a bit of attention, because it was unusual for a politician to challenge Macomb County blacks on race or inner-city blacks on welfare and crime. When both groups responded strongly to the same message, I wasn’t surprised. In their heart of hearts, most Americans know that the best social program is a job, that the strongest social institution is the family, ad that the politics of racial division are self-defeating. I thought the first New Democrat, Robert Kennedy, summarized my philosophy best: “tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime.” Republicans, both in that campaign and mine nearly a quarter-century later, loved to discuss the first half of the equation while ignoring the second half, while the opposite was true for Democrats. I was determined to change that once and for all.
- My Life

Gov. Bill Clinton (D-AR) speaks in Detroit. [NYT, Mar. 12]
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Awesome,Eventhough Im not sure how the Parliamentary line of succession works in England...I have a feeling we could end up with a PM Margaret Beckett within a few year(If the heart attack isn't butterflied away). It will be cool to see how H.W. handles the new Labour PM, and whether or not he sees as a foresahdow to things to come in November...

So what happened to Mario in the New Hampshire primaries, seems like you forget that you added him to the pool. And will Perot run or wont he run?


P.S. Has annyone ever noticed how much Madame Beckett looks like an aged Chelsea Clinton (Give or take 40 years:p)
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Indeed, I should update vis-a-vis Cuomo. Bush is a bit worried: is there a centrist resurgence that started with the Gandhi and Smith victories, or are they just the result of local conditions? Nonetheless Bush is working hard to ram both FTAs through ASAP, while Gandhi is buying as much US equipment as possible because Labour's manifesto pledges an end to most arms exports to poor countries. In Canada the PCs are in free fall, while all rides on Charlottetown's ratification.
 
Is John Smith going to sign Maastricht or will he just let it be?


The manifesto says they will sign the Social Chapter, so the answer is yes. I'll leave my British readers to fill in the blanks regarding the domestic political consequences of that. Judging by this manifesto, Euroskeptics must've flocked to the polls IOTL once they read the bolded parts. I have nothing nice to say about those bolded parts. Political outsourcing yes, economic no. For the Tories the equation is reversed.

Labour Manifesto 1992; said:
We shall use that presidency to end the Tories' opt-out from the Social Chapter, so that the British
people can benefit from European safeguards.
We will also use our presidency to help ensure that poorer countries are not disadvantaged as a result of the Single Market.
We shall play an active part in negotiations on Economic and Monetary Union. We shall fight for Britain's interests, working for Europe-wide policies to fight unemployment and to enhance regional and structural industrial policy. The elected finance ministers of the different countries must become the effective political counterpart to the central bank whose headquarters should be in Britain.
As part of the evolving role of the regions of Europe, we will establish a Scottish representative office in Brussels and seek appropriate representation for the Scottish Parliament in European institutions. We shall seek fundamental changes in the wasteful Common Agricultural Policy. Savings can help finance other Community projects.
We shall make the widening of the Community a priority, and shall advocate speedy admission for Austria, Sweden,
Finland and Cyprus, whose membership applications have been or are about to be lodged. We shall seek to create conditions in which, at the appropriate time, the new democracies of Central and Eastern Europe can join the Community.
 
The press picked up the “tea and cookies” remark and played it as a slam at stay-at-home mothers. The Republican culture warriors had a field day, portraying Hillary as a “militant feminist lawyer” who would be the ideological leader of a “Clinton-Clinton” administration that would push a “radical feminist” agenda. I hurt for her. Over the years, I don’t know how many times I’d heard her champion the importance of ensuring choices for women, including the choice to stay home with their children, a decision most mothers, single and married, simply couldn’t afford anymore. Also, I knew that she liked to bake cookies and have her women friends for tea. With one off the cuff remark, she had given our opponents another weapon to do what they did best- divide and distract the voters. It was all forgotten the next day when we won in Illinois, Hillary’s home state, with 52 percent to 25 percent for Tsongas and 15 percent for Brown, and in Michigan, with 50 percent to 27 percent for Brown and 18 percent for Tsongas. If Brown’s attack on Hillary had any effect, it probably hurt him in Illinois. After a great celebration in Chicago’s Palmer House Hotel, complete with Irish green confetti in honour of the holiday. On the surface, the campaign was in great shape. Underneath, things weren’t so clear. One new poll showed me running even with President Bush. Another, however, showed me well behind. On March 19, Tsongas withdrew from the campaign, citing financial problems, as did Mario Cuomo. That left Jerry Brown as my only opponent as we headed toward the Connecticut primary on March 24. It was assumed I would win in Connecticut, because most of the Democratic leaders had endorsed me, and I had friends there going back to my law school days. The turnout was around 20 percent of registered Democrats, and I eked out a victory over Brown 39 to 36 percent.

Bill and Hillary Clinton campaign in Chicago.
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On April 5, we got good news from Puerto Rico, where 96 percent of the voters supported me. Then, on April 7, with a low turnout of about a million voters, I carried New York with 60 percent to Brown’s 40 percent. A majority of African-Americans cast their ballot for me. On April 7, we also won in Kansas, Minnesota and Wisconsin. On April 9, Paul Tsongas announced he would not re-enter the race. The fight for the nomination was effectively over. I had more than half the delegates I needed to be nominated, and had only Jerry Brown to compete with the rest of the way in. But I was under no illusions about how badly damaged I had been, or how little I could do about it before the Democratic convention in July. I was also exhausted. I had lost my voice and put on a lot of weight, about thirty pounds. I had gained the weight in New Hampshire, most of it in the last month of the campaign, when I suffered from a flu bug that filled my chest with fluid at night so I couldn’t sleep for more than an hour without waking to cough. I kept alert on adrenaline and Dunkin Donuts, and I had a bulging waistline to prove it. Harry Thomason bought me some new suits, so that I didn’t look like a balloon about to burst. After New York, I went home for a week to rest my voice, start getting back in shape, and think about how to get out of the hole I was in. While I was in Little Rock, I won the Virginia caucuses and received the endorsement of the leaders of the AFL-CIO despite my support for the two free agreements currently undergoing the ratification process in Congress.

Bill Clinton playing his sax in a Manhattan restaurant, Apr. 12.
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It has been fascinating to see the US presidential election unfolding while the 2 FTAs will be put to a vote next week. George B is in serious trouble as the Democrats have finally moved back to the centre by nominating Clinton- the FTAs will go through even if G loses the election but a Democratic Congress will be a royal pain in the ass on E&L. We both stressed the economic benefits when queried by the media here- this is mostly an informal visit with Rajiv to coordinate our stances ahead of the CHOGM in July. The new Lab govt is getting its feet wet on the economy but still hasn’t done anything about ERM. Without immediate action that is going to blow up in their face like a phosphorous grenade lobbed at a propane storage facility, and the economy goes with it. Rajiv is seriously annoyed at their manifesto pledge to offer mediation services- an unsubtle code word for interference- in the Kashmiri dispute, which he wants resolved bilaterally. As he told me, only the US can influence Pakistan so there is little point in the UK getting involved. The FTA between our 2 countries is already bearing fruit in cultural exchanges & expansion of the service sector & hopefully it will do the same with the US. Carla Hills’ recent statement that “it makes no difference whether the US exports potato chips or silicon chips” was unintentionally ignorant, unusual for her. He doesn’t fail to remind me that as the owner of India’s first Toshiba laptop, he took mild offense- computer tech, and the service sector generally, is where he wants the economy to go. If he can get Microsoft or HP to build facilities here, it would be a crowning achievement- but there has to be a middle class that will buy those products. On the side, there’s a plan to balance the budget by 1996- increases on indirect taxation mixed in with spending cuts. I discussed the ongoing constitutional negotiations & he said that if they passed, it would allow me to leave on a high note. Still, I have no ideas on the succession.
- Mulroney Diaries, Apr. 25

Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and his wife Sonia review troops at the arrival ceremony for Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, Apr. 28. The two prime ministers are expected to coordinate opposition to the British trade position ahead of the upcoming CHOGM in Nassau.
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On Sunday, May 3, I was in Los Angeles to speak to the Reverend Cecil “Chip” Murray’s First AME Church about the need to heal the racial and economic rifts. And I toured the damaged areas with Maxine Waters, who represented South Central Los Angeles in Congress. Maxine was a tough, smart politician, who had endorsed me early, despite her long friendship with Jesse Jackson. The streets looked like a war zone, full of burned and looted building. As we walked, I noticed a grocery store that appeared to be intact. When I asked Maxine about it, she said the store had been “protected” by people from the neighbourhood, including gang members, because its owner, a white businessman named Ron Burkle, had been good to the community. He hired local people, all the employees were union members with health insurance, and the food was of the same quality as that in Beverly Hills groceries and sold at the same prices. At the time, that was unusual: because inner-city residents are less mobile, their stores often had inferior foods at higher prices. I had met Burkle for the first time just as few hours earlier, and I resolved to get to know him better. He became one of my best friends and strongest supporters. I pledged to support initiatives to empower inner-city residents by initiating enterprise zones to encourage private investment and community development banks to make loans to low- and moderate-income people. I learned a lot on the trip, and it got good press coverage. It also made an impression in the city that I cared enough to come before President Bush did. During the rest of May, a series of primary victories added to my delegate totals, including a 68 percent win in Arkansas on the twenty-sixth, rivalling the best I’d ever done in a contested primary at home.

Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Bill Clinton tours South Central Los Angeles with Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA-29)
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“I spoke with George for 45 minutes. On the official level, this has been one of the darkest meetings I had ever had with him. Socially it couldn’t have been better. George and Barbara attended a dinner at the embassy- a rare event for a sitting POTUS- and they were joined by CJ Rehnquist, Speaker Foley, Secretary Baker & others. Despite the FTA, American actions on the trade file were hurting us in Canada. I led the discussion through the 45 minutes & concentrated on bilateral trade & Uruguay Round concerns. I explained to George that the economic and political implications of the bilateral trade disputes were very serious in Canada. Support for the FTA has fallen, the disputes over lumber and Honda undermined the confidence of exporters and investors alike and poisoned perceptions about the FTA here. There are elements of unreality about the agreement, just as there are about politics in the US, but the negatives were there, nonetheless. I want to reverse the negative trend & reduce the stockpile of disputes. Actions of late... “Stomping all over us”- were painful & embarrassing. They have only played into the anti-Americans’ hands at home. Scowcroft also observed that the beer negotiations illustrated to him just how foul the atmosphere was between officials in both countries.”

Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney and President George Bush at a news conference during Mulroney's visit to Washington.
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On June 18, I met with Rajiv Gandhi, who was in Washington to sign the FTA and to see President Bush. When foreign leaders visit another country, it is customary for them to meet with the leader of the political opposition. Gandhi was charming, polite and friendly. I had been a big admirer of his since he had famously declared “India is open for business” back in 1985. On the other hand, he plainly preferred Bush, yet appeared to be hedging his bets on the President’s reelection bid. Gandhi said I had a good future even if I didn’t get elected this time- and that I could come back just as he did last year and I did in 1983. I thought he was the right man to lead India, would be in for the long haul this time, and I left the meeting convinced I could work with him if I succeeded in disappointing him about the results of the election. I also added a needed bit of levity to the election that week. Vice President Dan Quayle said he intended to be the “pit bull terrier” of the election campaign. When asked about it, I said Quayle’s claim would strike terror into the heart of every fire hydrant in America.

5/7/1992-San Antonio, TX- The North American Free Trade Agreement was initialed in San Antonio 5/7, with President Bush (C) Mexican President Carlos Salinas de Gortari (L) and Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney (R) in attendance. Chief trade representatives Julie Puche (L) of Mexico; Carla Hills (C) of USA; and Michael Wilson (R) of Canada are seated signing
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President George Bush confers with Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi after the initialing of the US-India Free Trade Agreement, 5/20.
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I spent the first weeks of July picking a running mate. After exhaustive search, Warren Christopher recommended I consider Senator Bob Kerrey; Senator Harris Wofford of Pennsylvania, who had worked with Martin Luther King Jr., and in President Kennedy’s White House; Congressman Lee Hamilton of Indiana, with whom I’d become friends when we served as governors together; and Senator Al Gore of Tennessee. I liked them all. Kerrey and I had worked together as governors, and I didn’t hold the tough things he had said in the campaign against him. He was a figure who could attract Republican and independent voters. Wofford was a deeply moral advocate of healthcare reform and civil rights. He also had a good relationship with Governor Bob Casey, which could ensure my winning Pennsylvania. Hamilton was impressive for his knowledge of foreign affairs and his strength in a conservative district in southeastern Indiana. Graham was one of the three or four best governors I served with over twelve years, and he would almost certainly bring Florida into the Democratic column for the first time since 1976. In the end, I decided to ask Bob Graham, as I had originally planned. Being from the New Democrat wing of the party, it would prove that I was serious about taking the party and the country in a different direction. I also thought his election would be good politics in Florida, the South, and other swing states. Most important, I thought he would be a good President if something happened to me, and I thought he’d have an excellent chance to be elected after I finished. On July 8, I called Bob and asked him to be my running mate. The next day he and his family flew to Little Rock for the announcement. The picture of all of us standing together on the back porch of the Governor’s Mansion was big news across the nation.

Democratic presidential nominee Gov. Bill Clinton addresses an Akron crowd, July 17
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Sen. Bob Graham (D-FL)

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The CHOGM in Auckland from July 10-12 was a baptism by fire for John Smith, who did not expect such vehement opposition to Britain’s new trade policies. In particular, Labour’s pledge to offer mediation services in the Kashmir dispute was icily dismissed by Rajiv Gandhi as “blatant interference in a bilateral dispute for electoral purposes, and it is a dead letter as far as India is concerned.” In meetings with other Commonwealth leaders, Gandhi was even more furious, calling the offer “the inevitable offspring of fuzzy-minded idealism- wooliness- or playing cricket in a rugby-playing region.” On most other issues, the leaders managed to reach accord, including Britain’s rejoining of the Foreign Ministers Group for South Africa, which Thatcher and her Tory successors had repeatedly rejected for nearly a decade. It was widely known that this would be Brian Mulroney’s final CHOGM before retiring as Prime Minister either late that year or the following spring. At a dinner in Mulroney’s honour, Gandhi praised his friend’s “breadth of vision, devotion to principle, and commitment to a continuing economic dialogue,” which broke up the room in laughter. Later at the plenary sessions the leaders hammered out a communiqué, which had seen lengthy debates over immigration. Smith had pledged to introduce legislation which would grant automatic citizenship to all children born in Britain. The other prime ministers saw this as enabling what was known in the United States as an “anchor baby” phenomenon, but not overly affecting their push towards greater economically based nationality legislation.

British Prime Minister John Smith at the CHOGM's opening press conference.
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Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney speaks at the meeting's closing press conference.

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Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi holds a scrum on the second day of the CHOGM.

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When my convention speech was over and the applause had died down, the convention ended with a song written for the occasion by Arthur Hamilton and my old friend and fellow high-school musician Randy Goodrum, “Circle of Friends.” It was sung by the Broadway star Jennifer Holiday. Before long they had us all singing “Let’s join a circle of friends, one that begins and never ends.” It was a perfect ending to the most important speech I’d ever delivered, and it worked. We were widening the circle. Three different polls proved that my message strongly resonated with the voters, and we had a big lead, of twenty or more points. But I knew we couldn’t hold that margin. For one thing, the Republican cultural base of white voters with a deep reluctance to vote for any Democratic presidential candidate was about 45 percent of the electorate. Also, the Republicans had not held their convention yet. It was sure to give President Bush a boost. Finally, I’d had six weeks of good press coverage and a week of direct, completely positive access to America. It was more than enough to push all the doubts about me into the recesses of public consciousness, but, I knew, not enough to erase them. The next morning, July 17, Bob, Hillary and I drove over to New Jersey to begin the first of several bus tours across America. They were designed to bring us into small towns and rural areas that had never been visited in modern presidential campaigns, which had become dominated by rallies in major media markets. We hoped the bus tour would keep the excitement and momentum of the convention going. It was a smashing success. It took us, and the national media, to places in the American heartland too often overlooked. America saw us reaching out to the people we had promised to represent in Washington, which made it harder for the Republicans to paint us as cultural and political radicals.

Democratic nominee Bill Clinton speaks in Dayton, Ohio.
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After the first bus tour, one national poll showed me with a two-to-one lead over President Bush, but I didn’t take it too seriously because he hadn’t really started to campaign. He began in the last week of July with a series of attacks. He said that my plan to trim defence increases would cost a million jobs; that my healthcare plan would be a government-run program run “with the compassion of the KGB”; that I wanted “the largest tax increase in history”; and that he would set a better “moral tone” as President than I would. His aide Mary Matalin edged out Dan Quayle in the race for the campaign’s pit bull, calling me a “snivelling hypocrite.” Later in the campaign, with Bush sinking, a lot of his careerist appointees started leaking to the press that it was anyone’s fault but theirs. Some of them were even critical of the President. Not Mary. She stood by her man to the end. Ironically, Mary Matalin and James Carville were engaged and would soon be married. Although they were from opposite ends of the political spectrum, they were equally aggressive true believers whose love added spice to their lives, and whose politics enlivened both the Bush campaign’s and mine. In the second week of August, President Bush persuaded James Baker to resign as secretary of state and return to the White House to oversee the campaign. I thought Baker had done a good job at State, except on Bosnia, where I felt the administration should have opposed the ethnic cleansing more vigorously. And I knew he was a good politician who would make the Bush campaign more effective.

In the week leading up to the first debate, I finally endorsed the controversial North American and US-India Free Trade Agreements negotiated by the Bush administration, with the caveat that I wanted to negotiate side agreements ensuring basic environmental and labour standards that would be binding on Mexico. My labour supporters were worried about the loss of low-wage manufacturing jobs to our southern neighbour and disagreed strongly with my position, but I felt compelled to take it, for economic and political reasons. I was a free-trader at heart, and I thought America had to support Mexico’s economic growth to ensure long-term stability in our hemisphere. A couple of days later, more than 550 economists, including nine Nobel Prize Winners, endorsed my economic program, saying it was more likely than the President’s proposals to restore growth. I had already determined not to negotiate a side agreement with India, for in our meeting Gandhi had been crystal-clear that any further modifications were unacceptable to him. HP’s announcement that they would build a new service center in Mumbai, relocating from Bakersfield and costing 2,500 jobs, brought the issue to the forefront. It was on Sept. 25 that he announced the complete abolition of the infamous Licence Raj, closing a 45-year chapter in Indian economic history and eliminating what had, in my opinion, been singlehandedly responsible for the prevention of the creation of small businesses in the country.

Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi announced the final and complete abolition of the Licence Raj effective January 1, 1993 today at his weekly scrum, in anticipation of HP's relocation of one of its service centers from Bakersfield, CA to Mumbai.
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On September 25, it was announced that the British government would raise the base interest rate from 10 to 15 percent in an effort to keep the pound within the ERM. Yet despite the Treasury’s best efforts, it was all in vain. Labour had pledged just 5 months earlier to keep the pound within the ERM, yet at 7:30 BST Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown announced that Britain would withdraw from the ERM effective immediately. It was later revealed that this had been agreed to during an emergency Cabinet meeting between the Prime Minister, the Chancellor, the Foreign Secretary, the Home Secretary and the President of the Board of Trade. Immediately the pound and London stocks nosedived as the City experienced a mini-crash. Among the things crashing down to earth was Labour’s lead in the polls. Up to September 25 they had enjoyed an average 2.5% lead over the Tories, now led by former Defence Secretary Malcolm Rifkind. Now the Tories were leading 44-30.

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Opposition Leader Malcolm Rifkind blasted the Government today in Prime Minister's Questions for failing to address the burgeoning currency crisis.
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If the presidential election was held today, who would you vote for? (Gallup, 1250 LV, 9/25-9/28, MOE 2.5%)
Clinton: 45%
Bush: 40%
Perot: 11%

If a federal election were held today, who would you vote for? (Angus Reid, 1000 LV, 9/29-9/30, MOE 2.1%)
Liberal: 40%
PC: 35%
NDP: 12%
Reform: 7%
BQ: 5%

If the Charlottetown constitutional referendum was held today, how would you vote? (AR, 1000 LV, national average)
NO/NON: 47%
YES/OUI: 47%
 
The first debate was finally held on Sunday, October 11, Hillary’s and my seventeenth wedding anniversary, at Washington University in St. Louis. I went into it encouraged by the endorsements in that morning’s editions of the Washington Post and the Louisville Courier-Journal. The Post editorial said “This country is drifting and worn down; it badly needs to be reenergized and given new direction. Bill Clinton is the only candidate with a chance of doing that.” That was exactly the argument I wanted to make in the debate. Yet despite my lead in the polls and the Post endorsement, I was on edge, because I knew I had the most to lose. In a new Gallup poll, 44 percent of the respondents said they expected me to win the debate, and 30 percent said they could be swayed by it. President Bush and his advisors had decided the only way to swing that 30 percent was to beat people over the head with my alleged character problems until the message sunk in. Now, in addition to the draft, the Moscow trip and the citizenship rumour, the President was attacking me for having participated in antiwar demonstrations in London “against the United States of America, when our kids are dying halfway around the world.” We went on like that for 90 minutes, discussing taxes, defence, the deficit, jobs and the changing economy, foreign policy, crime, Bosnia, the definition of family, the legalization of marijuana, racial divisions, AIDS, Medicare, and healthcare reform. I thought that on balance I gave the best answers in terms of specifics and arguments, but that Perot did better in presenting himself as folksy and relaxed. The good news was that the President gained no ground. The bad news was that Perot looked credible again. The post-debate showed that among those who watched, a significant number now had more confidence in my ability to be President.


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Charlottetown constitutional referendum, Oct. 26
YES: 50.7%
NO: 49.3%



Hillary and I woke up Monday morning in Philadelphia, the birthplace of our democracy, and the first leg of a four thousand mile, eight-state, round the clock and campaign swing. While Al and Tipper Gore campaigned in other battleground states, three Boeing 727s, decorated in red, white and blue, took Hillary, me, our staff, and a horde of media on the 29 hour jaunt. At Philadelphia’s Mayfair Diner, the first stop, when a man asked me what would be the first thing I did if elected, I said “I’m going to thank God.” Then it was on to Cleveland. With my voice failing again, I said, “Teddy Roosevelt said to speak softly and carry a big stick. Tomorrow, I want to talk softly and carry Ohio.” At an airport rally outside Detroit, flanked by several of Michigan’s elected officials and union leaders who had worked so hard for me, I croaked “If you will be voice tomorrow, I will be your voice for four years.” After stops in St. Louis and Paducah, Kentucky, we flew to Texas for two visits. The first was in McAllen, deep in South Texas near the Mexican border where I had been stranded with Sargent Shriver twenty years earlier. It was after midnight when we got to Fort Worth, where the crowd was kept awake by the famous country rock singer Jerry Jeff Walker. When I got back to the plane, I learned that my staff had bought four hundred dollars’ worth of mango ice cream from the Menger Hotel in San Antonio, just across the street from the Alamo. They had all heard me say how much I loved that ice cream, which I had discovered while working in the McGovern campaign in 1972. There was enough of it to feed the three planeloads of weary travellers all night.

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When we got home, the three of us watched an old John Wayne movie until we dozed off for a couple of hours. In the afternoon, I went jogging with Chelsea downtown and stopped at McDonald’s for a cup of water, as I had countless times before. After I got back to the Governor’s Mansion, I didn’t have to wait much longer. The returns started coming in early, about 6:30 p.m. I was still in my jogging clothes when I was projected the winner of several states in the East. A little over three hours later, the networks projected me the overall winner, with Ohio going for me by 90,000 votes out of nearly 5 million, a victory margin of less than 2 percent. It seemed fitting, because Ohio had been one of the states to guarantee me the nomination in the June 2 primaries, and the state whose votes had put me over the top at our convention in New York. The turnout was huge, the highest since the early 1960s, with more than 100 million people voting. When all 104,600,306 votes were counted the final margin of victory was about 5.5 percent. I finished with 43 percent of the vote, to 37 percent for President Bush and 19 percent for Ross Perot, the best showing for a third-party candidate since Teddy Roosevelt garnered 27 percent with his Bull Moose Party in 1912. Our baby-boom ticket did best among voters under thirty and over sixty-five. Our own generation apparently had more doubts about whether we were ready to lead the country. The late Bush-Perot tag team attack on Arkansas had shaved two or three points off our high-water mark a few days before the election. It had hurt, but not badly enough. While Perot kept me from getting a majority of the popular vote, his presence on the ballot almost certainly added to my margin in the Electoral College.

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(D) William J. Clinton/ Albert A. Gore Jr.: 345 EV, 43.2%
(R) George H.W. Bush/ J. Danforth Quayle: 193 EV, 37.8%
(I) H. Ross Perot/ James B. Stockdale: 19.7%

Incumbent President: George Bush (R)
President-elect: Bill Clinton (D)


Attn: Rt. Hon. Brian Mulroney, Prime Minister of Canada
24 Sussex Drive, Ottawa, Canada
26 November 1992

Brian,
I write on the eve of your retirement to wish you the very best in the next stage of your life, and of course you are welcome here anytime. The referendum is, I believe, the ultimate vindication of your national unity policies. Having achieved something which Trudeau never did will undoubtedly enhance your legacy at the expense of his, not that yours will need much enhancing. After my conversation with Clinton 3 weeks ago I feel somewhat better about Bush’s loss- he has gotten over the initial shock and is looking forward to retirement. Undoubtedly a Democratic Congress is harder for those of us who are looking towards freer trade, but better when it comes to international cooperation. Why did Bush lose? First, he angered his base eighteen months ago with his tax pledge- while the 5 cents was rather miniscule, the symbolism was immense. It also gave the excuse for the hard right, which never liked Bush due to being of the party’s centre-right, to bolt. Second was the Perot candidacy, which I can only describe as “only in America” and in not such a good way. Our systems would never allow for such a thing. Third, most importantly, was that the country was ready for a generational change, as was the case in 1960. When that aura of something new in the air arises there is precious little that can be done to arrest it. Then there was the necessity of focusing on foreign affairs. Nonetheless I will have to work closely with Clinton as I did with Bush and Reagan. You might be surprised to know that I did speak to Margaret recently & less surprisingly she has not mellowed 1 bit. We both agreed that the Tories will probably win the next election, even if they did leave Lab that IED of an ERM. Not that the electorate will remember of course. Smith is not much longer for this world- he is in poor health to begin with, the stresses of governing combined with his alcohol problem all point to a rather nasty succession struggle. In short, the next 4 years will have no effective governing in the UK and the Tories resume power after only a single term out. Given Lab's position on items relevant to us, I for one welcome our new Scottish Tory overlord.
All the best,
R.

MULRONEY RESIGNS, TORY LEADERSHIP CONTEST UNDERWAY
Globe and Mail
December 1, 1992
Prime Minister Brian Mulroney announced his retirement last night at a packed session of the PC National Executive in Ottawa. Actor Christopher Plummer performed a warm-up skit before the Prime Minister took the stage and made the announcement to a crowd of party faithful. Among those expected to enter the race are Foreign Secretary Barbara MacDougall, Finance Minister Michael Wilson, Justice Minister Kim Campbell and Trade and Industry Minister Jean Charest. None of the candidates have received the prime minister’s blessing according to senior PC Canada Fund sources, however most Tory insiders rate Campbell and Wilson the early favourites. Rumours that former Deputy Prime Minister Erik Nielsen would return to active politics continue to swirl despite emphatic denials from Nielsen. Deputy Prime Minister Don Mazankowski has announced his intention to stand down from Parliament at the next election. With polls showing the PCs and Liberals in a dead heat, the choice of leader will likely be the decisive factor at the next election’s outcome.

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