Comeback Kids

“We need to bring India into the 21st century”

- Rajiv Gandhi, 1985
Opposition Leader Rajiv Gandhi holds a press conference in Amritsar, May 20, 1991.
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Mourners and Army personnel recover Rajiv Gandhi's body from the blast zone, May 21, 1991.
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“We need to reach the voters. Yesterday was just-““Prime Minister, I must strongly object. It is pitch-black here and no one can see anything. Wait till the speech is over.” “Fine, if you say so.”
A few dozen metres away, Dhanu stared through the pitch black night. She could barely make out that man, the blood-stained oppressor of her people, at the podium, with some woman besides him. While the aim was hardly perfect, the crowd was slowly squeezing her away. Reaching under her dress, the click of the detonator was inaudible due to the din of the crowd and background noise. Yet nothing happened. Dhanu continued fumbling with the triggers, trying to figure out what had gone wrong...
“When we form the next government and I become Prime Minister again, I need Maragatham Chandrasekhar as a member of our caucus. She will fight for your interests tirelessly in Parliament as she has done in this province for the past six years. What has the government accomplished in the past eighteen months? Nothing except crudely, cynically play off different religions against each other for short-term political gain. They are leading from despair and doubt. We are the only ones that have a programme and have learned from the past. I have learned after travelling the nation over the past year, and this time there will be no turning back. There will be a free-market economy, a middle class and returning to our natural allies: America and the Commonwealth. There will be national unity once more, and we will work tirelessly to ensure it no matter what!” Rajiv then left the podium with Chandrasekhar, returning to the Air Force Mi-17 helicopter that was his due as a former Prime Minister.

Former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi stumping in Tamil Nadu.
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Both buckled up as the rotor noise drowned out all external sounds and the helicopter rose into the stifling, humid, air. Down below, a white flash lit up the night sky and the Mil shook slightly. In the cockpit, Col. Nadu heard a faint noise, like screaming. Suddenly the RT lit up. “Bravo Zulu 2-2, this is India November Charlie. There has been a Massive explosion on the ground. 14th Mechanized and 881st Air Cavalry have been tapped for Medevac, inbound to you. ETA 30 minutes, egress immediately. “India November Charlie, this is Bravo Zulu 2-2, returning to base.”

414 Sqn Mi-17 airborne
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“This is Mark Tully reporting for the BBC in Delhi. We have received unconfirmed reports that an explosion took place in Sriperumbudur, a small town in Tamil Nadu, where Rajiv Gandhi was speaking on behalf of a local MP. Initial information seems to indicate that Mr Gandhi was not injured or killed in the explosion but initial casualties are reported anywhere from 15 to 20 innocent bystanders were killed and up to 100 injured in the blast. Military sources tell us that the cause is believed to be an improvised explosive device. No statement has yet been released by the government or law enforcement officials. We will continue following this story and will update you with more details when they are forthcoming.”
- BBC India broadcast, 2230 local time
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“I was abruptly summoned to the cockpit by Norman Spector to receive a radio communication. I learned from our embassy in Delhi that my good friend Rajiv Gandhi had narrowly dodged an assassination attempt while on the stump in the home stretch of that year’s campaign. I instructed the ambassador to get me in touch with Rajiv, President Bush and John Major as soon as we landed in Singapore for my state visit.”
- Memoirs, Brian Mulroney

Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney and wife Mila at a press conference upon their arrival in Singapore for an Asian toru. [May 22]
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The White House, 1130
President Bush was reading his morning briefing papers when Brent Scowcroft hurriedly entered the Oval Office with only a quick knock. Bush looked up from the papers: “Brent, what is it?” “Mr. President, this just in from the Delhi Embassy: Rajiv Gandhi narrowly dodged an assassination attempt. Indian military sources tell us it was a suicide bomber, probably LTTE. 20 others killed in the blast. Had it gone off 10 minutes earlier he could well have been one of those 20 casualties? We’ve gotten word that he’s now aboard an airliner back to Delhi with his entourage.” “Keep me updated Brent.” Bush then buzzed Jim Baker at State: “Jim, when he lands let me know. I want to talk to him just as a courtesy.” The President then picked up the Oval Office phone: it was the Delhi Embassy. “Mr. President, unofficial returns show that Congress will likely form a majority government. Previously it was a minority but the sympathy vote and national security concerns will probably push them past that goal.” “Thank you Tom.” Good to have a reliable, constructive friend and ally back in office Bush thought as he continued reading the memo from Lee Atwater on preplanning for the upcoming campaign. Already some Democrats had declared their candidacy...

President Bush confers with NSC staff in the Oval Office.
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NF headquarters, Delhi, 23 May
VP Singh sat in his office with trusted aides listening to the early returns trickle in on BBC India. Of everyone in this election he was perhaps poised to lose the most. Just 4 years previously he had been the #2 man in the government, and prime minister 6 months previously. Now his National Front was poised to place third, and his old friend-turned-archenemy, Rajiv Gandhi, was poised to return to the Prime Minister’s Office after barely 18 months’ exile. We screwed up again just as in 1977 Singh thought to himself. To Singh, perhaps most gallingly, they had fumbled their government for the same reasons as a decade previously. If anything, his countrymen were again buying the line that only Congress was a coherent political party. Yet it hadn’t been so coherent when Rajiv had been blasting his own party’s left wing at the occasion of the Mahatma’s birthday in ’87, or turning back on his economic promises. So sensitive to press criticism Singh thought. Yet if he had learned anything, it was not to underestimate Rajiv. Canny bastard, and now he’ll sink or swim in this goddamn morass.
The 3 prime ministers announce a campaign moratorium. Opposition Leader Rajiv Gandhi is speaking, flanked by outgoing Prime Minister Chandra Sekhar [C] with NF leader VP Singh at rear centre.

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NF leader V.P. Singh campaigning in Mumbai, May 22.
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Congress National Headquarters, 24 Akbar Road, Delhi
“I want to thank all the well wishes I have received in the past few hours. However just because I was fortunate enough to make it out alive does not mean everyone was. On behalf of our party, my family and myself, I wish to express my sincere condolences to the families and next of kin of those killed in the explosion. The perpetrators must be brought to justice and I have every confidence in our national security personnel. Having spoken to the other party leaders, out of respect for the victims, there will be a 24-hour blanket moratorium on campaign events. We must not allow terrorists and criminals to interfere in the democratic process, and the next 2 rounds will proceed on schedule. Thank you. There will be no questions, thank you and good day.”

“I am a candidate for President of the United States. Having secured forgiveness from you, my fellow Arkansans, it is time for a new direction for the Democratic Party and America, a Third Way. I will fight for you, the people who work hard and play by the rules, if you choose me as your nominee and elect me President next November. Recently Secretary Baker said that George Bush had spent his first term attending to the world’s problems, and that his second term would be spent tending to problems at home. Well I would tell the President that when we’re in a recession, families are struggling to make ends meet, having to choose between the electric and groceries, and then it is time for new leadership in America!”
- Gov. Bill Clinton (D-AR), May 26
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“The 1991 campaign was perhaps an illustration of the limits of retail politics. In 1984 Congress had campaigned on national security and sympathy votes for Indira after the assassination, plus a new set of policies. In 1989 a visible fracture had hampered their campaign, with the conservative, free-market wing led by Rajiv opposed to the socialists, whom he had bitterly attacked at a party rally two years previously. This time, the party campaigned around continuing their old policies, and nearly all their new candidates had undergone an ideological litmus test by constituency organizations before selection. With deep ideological unity and a leader who had recovered much of his old popularity despite being distrusted by some within his own party, Congress was poised to return to power once again. By focusing on a positive, policy-based message Gandhi proved he had not lost his instincts, but merely ignored them, in 1988 and 1989. Nonetheless polling was still ongoing on May 23, with two weeks until the results would be officially tabulated.
Purple to Indigo: India 1989-[REDACTED]

MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES FACING THE COUNTRY?
ECONOMY: 44%
NATIONAL UNITY: 31%
TERRORISM: 20%
FOREIGN POLICY: 5%

WHO DO YOU TRUST AS PRIME MINISTER?
RAJIV GANDHI: 65%
L.K. ADVANI: 25%
VP SINGH: 10%

IS COUNTRY HEADED IN RIGHT DIRECTION?
YES: 41%
NO: 57%
UNSURE: 2%

Times of India Exit Poll, 1991 general election [May 23, 1991, Page A12]

BBC projections, Round 1
Congress: 41%
BJP: 29%
NF: 22%
 
Quick overview of the parties and major issues...

The Leaders

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Rajiv Gandhi
Congress
Leader since: 31 October 1984
Leader of the Opposition, former Prime Minister
MP for Amethi


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L.K. Advani
BJP
Leader since: 1986
MP for Gandhinagar

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V.P. Singh
NF
Leader since: 11 October 1988
Former Prime Minister
MP for Fatehpur

On The Issues

Congress

Economy: Dismantlement of Licence Raj, gradual privatization of most state-owned industry, deregulation of communications and airline industries. Free trade with the United States.

National Unity: Department of Intergovernmental Relations created to manage affairs between the Centre and the state chief ministers. First Ministers' Conferences on an annual basis.

Mandal Commission: Halving of NF government's backwards-caste quotas from 27% to 13% as a compromise.

Ayodhya Mosque: protection by police, if necessary federal troops. Creation of a commission composed of Muslim and Sikh religious scholars along with legal experts to propose a binding solution to the problem.

Foreign Policy: Close relations with China, United States and the Commonwealth. Primary orientation to be Anglo-American.


BJP

Economy: Dismantlement of the Licence Raj, privatizaiton of all state-owned industries except agricultural subsidies. Trade with China and other Asian countries to be promoted.

Mandal Commission: Abolition of backwards-caste quotas implemented by NF Government.

Ayodhya Mosque: Promotion of Hindu claim without authorization of construction by either party.

National Unity: Promotion of Hindu ethnic, not religious nationalism.

Foreign Policy: Commonwealth and Asian-oriented.

NF

Economy: same as Congress.

Mandal Commission: Retention of 27% backwards-caste quotas implemented in June 1989.

Ayodhya Mosque: Status quo.

National Unity: Status quo.

Foreign Policy: Same as Congress.


Standings at dissolution (8 December 1990)

542 seats in the Lok Sabha

Congress: 200 seats
National Front: 129 seats*
BJP: 193 seats
Other: 20 seats

*BJP and all opposition parties merged in 1988 into the National Front, a grand coalition of opposition parties that defeated Rajiv Gandhi's Congress government in the December 1989 federal election. In 1990 internal factional strife caused the BJP to bolt and forced VP Singh's resignation as Prime Minister on Nov. 10, while the government was propped up by Rajiv Gandhi's Congress until a non-confidence motion in December triggered the 1991 federal election.

Incumbent Prime Minister: Chandra Sekhar (NF)
Prime Minister-designate: TBD
 
CUOMO ENTERS DEMOCRATIC RACE, TIED WITH FRONTRUNNER CLINTON

New York Governor Mario Cuomo announces his presidential candidacy.
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“This country is in need of a President who will fight for the people, not the special interests. A President who will redirect our citizens’ attention towards self-improvement at home while remaining engaged abroad. That is why I stand bef fore you today and am declaring my candidacy for President of the United States. With your help we shall prevail next November!”
- Gov. Mario Cuomo (D-NY), May 28

“This is BBC Delhi and I’m Mark Tully. Polls have just closed for the final day of voting in this election and we are waiting on results from the Elections Commission. Our exit polls showed issues foremost on voters’ minds were the economy by a wide margin, followed by national unity and terrorism. We are projecting that Congress will be returned to office with an overall majority of 24, or 283 of 542 seats and Mr Gandhi will become Prime Minister for a second time. The recent assassination attempt on Mr Gandhi has likely boosted public sympathy voting for Congress and security concerns have been pushed to the forefront. We are now getting the first results in: Congress 14, BJP 6, NF 4 seats... BBC is now projecting that Congress will form a majority government with 286 seats in the Lok Sabha. Repeat, we are projecting a Congress victory. Expecting all 3 leaders to issue statements after the results has been tabulated. For BBC, I’m Mark Tully.”

Congress National Headquarters, 24 Akbar Road
Rajiv and Sonia Gandhi were in the war room at national HQ, taking congratulatory calls from foreign leaders and concessions from the other 2 leaders. Most thrilling had been receiving the congratulation from V.P. Singh, who’s National Front was expected to hold no more than 70 seats in the new Parliament. Then there were the foreign calls: Brian Mulroney, George Bush, John Major, Francois Mitterrand, Boris Yeltsin and others. Now the time had come to deliver the speech which all had been waiting for these past 20 months. “Sir, the press is awaiting the statement from you.”

Prime Minister-designate Rajiv Gandhi addresses the media following projections of a Congress majority government.
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“This is a great day for Indian democracy. We have regained the trust of you, the voters, once again and I promise to honour the faith you have placed in me once again. The task ahead of our party will not be an easy one but we do not do these things because they are easy, but because they are hard. It is thanks to every person in this room who volunteered as a campaign worker, as a phone bank volunteer, and in any other capacity. In particular I wish to thank, aside from the devoted legions of party activists, first and foremost my wife Sonia for the support she has provided me throughout this campaign. I wish to thank Narashima Rao for being my invaluable deputy over these past 20 months. To him I owe an immeasurable debt of gratitude. Mr Rao has always been a man of service to our nation and he will be serving us again shortly in a very senior capacity. To all Indians, regardless of how you voted, I ask for your support in the forthcoming years and months to meet the great national challenges this country now faces. Thank you and good night.”

FINAL COMELEC RESULTS, CERTIFIED 04/06/91
Seat Totals
542 seats in the Lok Sabha
Congress: 301, 44.3 (+101, +4%)
BJP: 190, 28.7 (-3, +17.3%)
NF: 51, 22.2 (-78, -18.4%)
Incumbent Prime Minister: Chandra Sekhar (NF)
Prime Minister-designate: Rajiv Gandhi (INC)

GANDHI, SWORN IN FOR 2ND TERM, PLEDGES 'EFFICIENCY ORIENTED' RULE
June 7, 1991
Amid thunderous applause and the pop of hundreds of flashbulbs, 46-year-old Rajiv Gandhi was sworn in today as India's ninth Prime Minister. Mr. Gandhi's 29-member Cabinet, a blend of the young and the experienced, was also formally installed during the ceremonies at the presidential palace. Soon afterward, a relaxed and smiling Prime Minister, buoyed by a healthy majority of 58 in Parliament, said that his Government would be ''performance and efficiency oriented.'' Mr. Gandhi, who lost power barely 20 months ago in the 1989 elections, told reporters that he would ''monitor'' the performance of ministers and dismiss those who proved ineffective,.” Among the challenges facing the new Gandhi government are a sclerotic, stagnant economy, increased terrorist threats and unrest in Pakistan. Mr. Gandhi is expected to attend next month’s CHOGM in Harare hosted by Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe where South Africa will likely be the major discussion topic among the Commonwealth leaders.

Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi waves to the crowd atop the Presidential Palace following his Cabinet's swearing-in.
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Today’s time on the stump provided many fresh insights into the electorate’s mood these days. People are hurting, angry that the President doesn’t seem to connect with their economic woes. However the one I’m worried most about is Cuomo. All the others, Brown, Tsongas, and Kerrey- none of them are promising anything new. Cuomo is a New Deal liberal but a charismatic one who also promises to fight for the middle and working class. That’s what this is really about: a struggle for the Democratic Party’s soul which we New Democrats have to win no matter what. Otherwise we will never govern effectively on the few occasions we win a presidential election. So far the President has not yet begun campaigning but we expect him to hit the trail early next year. We are the ones who have not fought for a nomination. With the recent assassination attempt on Gandhi in India we are all mindful of retail politics’ high-risk, high-reward modus operandi. Foreign affairs are heating up as the USSR heads towards dissolution within the next 2 years at the maximum according to most intelligence estimates. Polls show that despite some of my personal issues I am still seen as the most electable of the Democratic candidates & the one who polls best against the President. The GOP has been in for 12 years & with this recession & a distracted President they are quite beatable if we nominate the best candidate. Running for president is a unique, tiring yet oddly thrilling experience that allows you to make a difference for millions of your fellow Americans.”
- Clinton Diaries, July 10

Gov. and Mrs. Clinton on the stump in Minnesota.
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This CHOGM, like the others I’ve attended, is primarily SA-focused though attention was paid to regular issues such as trade, immigration & the like. SA was made much easier with John Major’s relaxed & flexible style of leadership which produced consensus much quicker than when Margaret sat in the UK chair. On the first night we all celebrated Rajiv’s return to the fold with a dinner in his honour- I did the toast with John Major seconding. He was quite happy & in a good mood, quite eager to be back in the arena. Paul Keating made his first appearance since ousting Bob Hawke in a brutal coup back in April which has badly divided Lab & the country generally. The Coalition is in a strong polling position as is George Bush to win a second term depending on whom the Dems nominate down south. I have convened another First Ministers’ Conference, this one with a new set of premiers from ’87 who will not have the baggage. Robert has said that he is amenable to this provided that the key elements of Meech are retained, which I believe they will be. I have decided that there will be no referendum- it will be approved by the legislatures as last time. Of the non-African leaders, Rajiv & I are the ranking ones despite the UK chairmanship so we had more of a leadership role than usual on most issues. There was strong urging of the African leaders to improve their human rights records though phrased rather delicately, since we are under no illusions of realities on the ground. Nonetheless we did all manage to agree on a communiqué reaffirming our commitments to South Africa & immigration. Immigration is a touchy thing that all of us must fine-tune, especially given the economic-based system used by most of the Western Commonwealth. I expect a huge economic boom in India. Rajiv says the first monopolies to be deregulated and privatized will be the telecom and airline industries, being relatively uncontroversial. More important ones, such as the dismantlement of the LR, will be enacted over the rest of this year & into next year’s winter session. One moderate-sized step at a time seems the best path & we are in complete agreement on that one. John Major is going for the toughest ones of all of us- one that even Margaret didn’t even which to touch. Namely British Rail & the mines, which havebeen in government hands since the war ended. I certainly hope they’ve done a proper study of the impact on infrastructure that BR will inevitably result in- for better or for worse. As for immigration, by next year I expect to sign General Agreements on Human Resources with Rajiv & Paul to improve economic immigration flow & move towards FTAs, which will likely not be passed by the time I leave office but should be initiated anyways.
- Mulroney Diaries, Aug. 7

Commonwealth "Gang of Four"

British Prime Minister John Major
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Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating
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Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney
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Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi
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GENERIC DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION POLLING (GALLUP, AUG. 7-9)
CUOMO: 37%
CLINTON: 36%
TSONGAS: 20%
BROWN: 15%
OTHERS: 5%

BACKBENCH REBELLION: TEBBIT, PARKINSON ANNOUNCE "NO" MAASTRICHT VOTE

INDIA DEREGULATES TELECOM INDUSTRY

NAFTA TALKS CONTINUE APACE, MEXICO LAGGING
 
Wait and see. There's going to be a move towards coordination of Commonwealth immigration procedures. Whether or not the FTAs lead to free movement between signatory countries remain to be seen, especially given the Tory right in the UK. Wait and see what Murdoch has planned now that the Indian market is wide open, with a TV natural as prime minister it also has domestic political repercussions...

Things to watch for in the next update: Pakistan and Britain. Maastricht will be resolved in one way or another by year's end, and with Sharif in power in Pakistan the US will be quite interested in the region. Nothing to watch for in North America until early 1992.

For those wondering about Gandhi-Mulroney: they were close personal and political friends IOTL who worked extensively on battling Thatcher on apartheid, plus taking up the leadership role in the Commonwealth which she abdicated on that issue. Flight 182 was the only dent, which had significant political repercussions in being the first misstep of Gandhi's premiership IOTL.

Spoiler: keep a sharp eye out in Britain for shockers on both sides of the aisle.
 
Stay tuned. IPKF has already been withdrawn and you don't reinsert yourself into what IMO was India's Vietnam. It will be a military solution, that's all I'll say for now. ;)
 
Very interesting stuff RB - a lot of juicy possbilities all over the shop. I'm assuming from the title Gandhi won't be the only re-elected leader. I assume Cuomo will see Bush get a second term, while god knows about Major and the Europhobes in Cabinet.

Probably the most tantilising/terrifying thing mentioned is Murdoch being unleashed on the Indian sub-continent. Oy Vay!
 
That's from OTL, but Murdoch will have to be careful about how he plays his political influence. Rajiv got burned for letting too much of that seep into his first term. It helps to have a supportive English-language network that reaches your middle-class electoral base.

Re Euroskeptics: wait and see. They also have certain views on immigration which will not help the Commonwealth's move towards freedom of movement between member countries. More on that later.

Cuomo: wait and see.
 
Indian television really took off in September 1991, with the passage of the 1991 Telecommunications Act deregulating the industry and opening it up to private competition. First to enter was Rupert Murdoch’s Sky TV in early October, followed by CNN, BBC and Al-Jazeera. Next were the domestic private competitors such as Sun TV, India’s first private broadcaster. The state broadcasters Doordarshan and All India Radio were not scheduled to be privatized under Phase I of the Gandhi ministry’s privatization programme; with the Prime Minister himself being reluctant to act against a revered institution even he called “a national icon”, especially among the poor. Nonetheless a compromise was worked out between the Trade and Industry, Communications and Finance Ministries where 40% of the funding would come from individual donations and private companies. Soon the domestic market was booming with set ownership mushrooming from 126 in 1962 to 70 million sets in 1992 serving 400 million Indians with 100 channels. Telecommunications was by far the least controversial of the ministry’s privatizations, consistently rated as the most popular reform for years to come. More difficult was the economic legislation being driven through the House by Manmohan Singh and Deputy Prime Minister Narashima Rao, which would float the rupee on international markets and eliminate tariffs on all imported raw metals as a first step. As a second step, negotiations with various Commonwealth countries were underway to harmonize immigration requirements along skill and economic lines. Gandhi saw India’s economic future as being in the service, not manufacturing sector and Singh, wholeheartedly concurring, tailored economic policy to bring this about. Privately, both men mocked the Mexicans for having built the largest steel plant in Latin America in 1986 which turned out to be, by all accounts, a white elephant. To attract foreign investments, Singh’s first budget would cut corporate taxes from 27% to 18%, with a corresponding cut in middle-class income tax, compensated by a 4% VAT hike. The next step was airline deregulation, including privatization of Air India...”
- Purple to Indigo
Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi offers sweets to President Venkateraman while Deputy Prime Minister Narashima Rao and Foreign Secretary Balram Jakhar look on. [Prime Minister's Residence, Oct. 20, 1991]

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Finance Minister Manmohan Singh, the architect of India's neoliberal revolution.
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“For the Tories, Maastricht had become the overriding concern. By late October 22 Tories had said they would vote against the Treaty and with an election now overdue Major decided to delay until the spring or summer of 1992 in hopes of seeking a compromise. The rebellion’s leaders were semi-publicly backed by Lady Thatcher and Lord Tebbit, with Thatcher describing the Treaty as ‘national suicide’. Major’s position was not helped when on Sept. 26, when in response to the Commonwealth’s ongoing immigration negotiations, four Indian Oxbridge exchange students were severely beaten in Nottingham. Anglo-Indian tensions, already heightened after Thatcher’s opposition to South African sanctions in the 1980s, reached a boiling point as nationalist demonstrations in India, led by the BJP mounted domestic pressure on the Gandhi ministry. On Oct. 1, Gandhi, both during Question Period and at his weekly news conference, harshly condemned the violence, saying “I sincerely hope British authorities will bring the perpetrators to justice with a full and fair investigation”. Defying the BJP opposition, who the Prime Minister accused of “empty posturing”, Gandhi refused to initiate retaliatory action other than a temporary freeze on student visas to Britain. Privately, he told Rao that “empty posturing will achieve nothing other than long-term pain for short-term gain” and refused to act further. In a private phone conversation to Major, he recognized his British counterpart’s domestic political woes. The two men also discussed Gandhi’s plan to meet Nawaz Sharif at the Line of Control on the Indo-Pakistani border by year’s end, sure to attract nationalist opposition but which Gandhi saw as necessary to defuse a tense situation between the 2 countries, now nearly at the point of war. Escalation of nationalist rhetoric during Singh’s tenure, coupled with domestic pressures, had caused a massive military build up along the Line of Control. Gandhi conceded that if nothing was resolved “a quick Blitzkrieg is very much in the cards or at least a border skirmish”, and ordered the military to remain at high readiness for the foreseeable future.

Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif interviewed by Mark Tully, Oct. 6. [BBC]
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Prime Minister John Major, October 1991.
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Much is apace over here. I’ve been taking a good deal of flak from the base with constant denunciations of my supposed betrayal. We were never going to get the requisite spending cuts through this bunch of liberals and it is about time they manned up & admitted it with a straight face. Right now the campaign is starting to heat up after I reminded everyone last week that I am in fact seeking a second term & it should be interesting to see who the Dems throw up. Clinton’s the most dangerous but he has the most personal baggage. Tsongas is too socially liberal, though a fiscal moderate, Cuomo’s a throwback, if a charismatic one & Brown’s just a flake. Kerrey’s heading nowhere, ditto with Graham. What I am trying to get through is a FTA with India alongside NAFTA. Rajiv has been very cagey about this, saying that he wants a fast-track before the election but not at the expense of causing me domestic political harm. After reassuring him it would not be a problem, we discussed the preliminaries that have to be done before formally proceeding. He is concerned primarily about the distinct possibility of another war. Not so much about the outcome- confident that it would be “1971 all over again” but that we’d referee before a knockout blow was delivered. Damn right we would, though if there was an attack we’d hold off condemnation for 48 hours before stepping directly in to prevent further destruction. This is not the 19th century where 2 powers can go at it with a wink & a nod from the Greats- 2 nuke powers. Now that we have concrete proof of Indian realignment: unilateral abrogation of the Friendship Treaty & turning to us, UK & France to supply arms, there can be progress in the bilateral relationship on a formal level. Neither can Pakistan be neglected, because we cannot afford them to go Islamist. I would be quite open to a Kush reorientation towards India.
- Bush Diaries, Nov. 10

Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and President Bush outside the White House, Oct. 28. Both men have just announced the imminent start of free trade talks in January 1992 after the President has secured preliminary Congressional approval.

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The meeting between Gandhi and Sharif in Kashmir was neither as harmonious as some optimists predicted, nor a mutual contempt as predicted by many nationalists on both sides of the border. Both men had been elected on the same economic platform which was their main domestic priority, wished to improve bilateral relations and relations with the United States. Sharif, a longtime backer of constitutional Islamism who cut his political teeth during the Zia military regime, stood in stark contrast to his notoriously secular, Westernized Indian counterpart. While neither could commit to a path towards detente, the two men agreed to regular communications and meetings on an “ad hoc” basis, the best that could be hoped for.
Schadenfreude: Indo-Pakistani Relations, 1990-xxxx

On November 28, a year to the day after Major succeeded Thatcher as Prime Minister and Tory leader, Maastricht came to a vote in the House of Commons. All day everyone was on edge, awaiting the outcome of the vote. In the Lords, Thatcher again described the proposed treaty as “national suicide”, reportedly telling MP John Wakeham: “the problem with you John is that your spine does not reach your brain.” It would be what Bush called “crunch time” for Major, holding an emergency meeting with the Whips to determine the vote’s outcome. One MP later described the meeting as follows: “the PM was anxious when we heard that no matter the outcome, it would be by the skin of our teeth. Literally all the Lords were being shepherded in, even though who were notorious truants during most of the year.”
Rollercoaster: British Politics since 1990, John Campbell, 20xx

“The Speaker called the House to order at approximately 9:30 a.m., with the roll call commencing at 9:33. I tried to detach myself from the process, thinking of other things than what was unfolding before my eyes. Finally the decisive moment: “by a vote of 349-281, I declare the Treaty on Europe Act 1991 defeated on first reading.” 58 MPs had either abstained or voted against, plus Euroskeptic members of the Opposition voting against it. The Prime Minister realized he could not carry on and announced that he would resign, thereby triggered the third leadership election within 3 years. I decided to support Norman. Mrs Thatcher remained neutral.”
David Cameron, In the Arena [20xx]

MAJOR RESIGNS AS PM AND TORY LEADER

LAMONT, HOWARD, CLARKE, RIFKIND ENTER TORY LEADERSHIP RACE

Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont
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Employment Secretary Michael Howard
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Home Secretary Ken Clarke
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Defence Secretary Malcolm Rifkind.
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“I need not remind you that the national interest would best be served with my good friend President Bush and a Republican Congress for the next 4 years. None of the Ds understand foreign affairs, and it is increasingly unlikely the best D hope on FTA, Clinton, can be nominated. If he is by some fluke, go for the President 60-40 regarding funding, and by such precautionary measures we should hedge our bets.”
- Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi to [REDACTED], Nov. 22, 1991
 
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This is arguably the best Timeline that I have ever read. It's so detailed and well researched, and the butterflies are fully fleshed out. Hall-of-Fame worthy stuff. Bravo!
 
For those few intense days, speculation was rife that a “stop Ken” movement was building. Later events proved such a theory correct. Lamont and Howard were poised to divide the right wing of the party and no one knew where Rifkind’s loyalties were. Not completely tying himself to either wing: Thatcherites or One Nationals, though his rhetoric had tended towards the former and his actions the latter. Even those who would normally be Ken’s natural allies were put off by his abrasiveness and fervent advocacy of Europhilic sentiments. Clarke once went so far as to call Howard’s views on Europe “paranoid nonsense” which only fuelled longstanding impressions he would rather score rhetorical points than be conciliatory. With the recession declared over and an election imminent, the party wanted to pick the most experienced man. Howard was seen as too junior and too polarizing, so the right wing began to shift towards Lamont. Rifkind’s positioning between the two wings became the “melting ice cream” centre, and he agreed to withdraw if Lamont would promote him. Given our difficulties in Scotland, it would be politic for Rifkind to move up, to which Lamont assented. The new prime minister would have to call an election within six months, probably by early March at the latest. We were nearly ready and had to gear up: Mrs Thatcher had ordered preparations to begin in June 1990 and final preliminaries had been completed earlier in the year. Abroad there was much ado about the Oxbridge beatings- India’s economic revolution had begun to see many British companies, lured by low taxes and an increasingly favourable regulatory climate, start to outsource jobs. It was around that time that the BNP first began to enter the political lexicon. Within the Labour Party the old fracture seen in the 1960s between the white unionists concerned about job competition from new Britons and those committed to their state policy of multiculturalism resurfaced, granting us a temporary political reprieve.
In the Arena
UK Conservative Party leadership election, 29 November 1991
375 MPs voting
1st ballot
Ken Clarke: 131
Norman Lamont: 119
Michael Howard: 85
Malcolm Rifkind: 40

2nd ballot
Norman Lamont: 214
Ken Clarke: 157

“I hereby declare Norman Lamont duly elected Leader of the Conservative Party.”
- Party Chairman Cecil Parkinson
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Attn: Rt. Hon. Brian Mulroney, Prime Minister of Canada
24 Sussex Drive, Ottawa, ON, Canada
7 December 1991
Prime Minister Brian Mulroney addresses the PC Party Conference, December 10. [CBC]
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Brian,
In our last phone conversation you asked for details of the nativist sentiment that is endangering so many of our students in Britain. Besides the Notting Hill one of last month, there have been 4 attacks within 6 weeks of each other, far too many to be merely coincidental. In light of this I have decided to temporarily cut the visas granted by 90% until this wave of hate criminality is solved by local authorities. We no longer have John Major in No 10 who in addition to being sympathetic, is from a similar background as the assailants and thus offered much needed insight into motives & what can be done. Lamont knows nothing of foreign affairs beyond the IMF & is likely to be less than helpful on SA even as that winds down. As liberalization continues apace, companies will continue to outsource here & protectionist sentiment will rise with it. It is a paradox that both are intertwined, but as you told me last month; these are facts of political life. I certainly hope that the snag reached in NAFTA over harmonization of E&L with Mexico gets resolved ASAP- but it is a mere delaying excuse. You cannot downgrade your standards & Mexico cannot up theirs until the cash start flowing into their coffers. I hope in our next meeting to begin bilateral trade talks- a pan-C agreement is impossible as we both know. Family’s fine on this end & hope it is for you as well. One of the burdens of our office is cutting back on family time, a regrettable but necessary one. Have you been following the US presidential election closely? I cannot emphasize enough the importance of having George Bush returned for a 2nd term, not just because of FTA but because the Democrats are genuinely uninterested in foreign affairs. Over the years I have come to conclude that the GOP, while hampered with some isolationist tendencies, has much more of an interest in diplomacy. Plus they have the benefit of without being stuck with a leftist base that views any form of free-market ideas as downright heretical, as I am. Such is my lot, unfortunately but it is nothing some election-time purging cannot solve.
All the best,
Rajiv
[Breaking Ranks]
Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi arrives in his Amethi constituency for the monthly Q&A [Dec 12, Times of India]
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By December, the campaign was on a roll. On December 2, James Carville and his partner, Paul Begala, joined us. They were colourful characters and hot political property, having recently helped elect Governor Bob Casey and Senator Harris Wofford in Pennsylvania, and Governor Zell Miller in Georgia. Zell got Carville on the phone for me so that I could set up a meeting with him and Begala. I wasn’t the only candidate who wanted to hire them, and when they signed on, they brought energy, focus and credibility to our efforts. On December 10, I spoke to the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, and two days later I delivered the third and final Georgetown speech, on national security. I got a lot of help on the speeches from my longtime friend Sandy Berger, who had been deputy director of policy planning at the State Department during the Carter years. Sandy recruited three other Carter-era foreign policy specialists- Tony Lake, Dick Holbrooke, and Madeleine Albright- along with a bright, Australian-born expert on the Middle East, Martin Indyck. All would play important roles in the years ahead. In mid-December, it was enough that they helped me cross the threshold of understanding and competence in foreign affairs. On December 15 I won the nonbinding Florida straw poll at the state Democratic convention with 54 percent of the delegates. I knew many of them from my three visits to the convention in the 1980s, and I had by far the strongest campaign organization, headed by Lieutenant Governor Buddy McKay. Hillary and I also worked the delegates hard, as did her brothers Hugh and Tony, who lived in Miami, and Hugh’s wife Maria, a Cuban-American lawyer. Two days after the Florida win, an Arkansas fundraiser netted $800,000 for the campaign, far more than had ever before been raised at a single event there. On December 19 the Nashville Banner became the first newspaper to endorse me. On December 20, Senator Sam Nunn and Governor Zell Miller of Georgia endorsed me and gave my campaign a huge boost.
Gov. Bill Clinton (D-AR) addresses the Florida Democratic Convention, Dec. 15.
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When Parliament’s winter session began on January 8, 1992, the first order of business was to pass the Anti-Terrorism Act which had been drafted over the December recess. It was in response to the Assam insurgency, and authorized the Armed Forces, specifically Army Special Forces, to mount a counterinsurgency campaign in those provinces. Passed unanimously in the Lok Sabha, Rajiv told the assembled MPs that “no holds will be barred in the quest to extinguish this grave threat to Indian democracy and the life and liberty of this long-suffering province.” At the same time, the first purchase of American F-15Es was being negotiated as part of the Peace Tiger program with the Bush Administration to replace the elderly MIGs from the Soviet era. Paradoxically, the Eagles were to be paired with new MIG-29s purchased from Russia, with a similar dynamic vis-a-vis the M60 and T-80 tanks purchased for the Indian Army.
Washington, D.C., January 28, 2107 EST
President Bush gestures with his fist, January 29th, during the State of the Union address. Behind him is Vice President Dan Quayle.
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We must have a short-term plan to address our immediate needs and heat up the economy. And then we need a longer term plan to keep combustion going and to guarantee our place in the world economy. There are certain things that a President can do without Congress, and I'm going to do them.
I have directed Cabinet departments and Federal agencies to speed up progrowth expenditures as quickly as possible. This should put an extra $10 billion into the economy in the next 6 months. And our new transportation bill provides more than $150 billion for construction and maintenance projects that are vital to our growth and well-being. And that means jobs building roads, jobs building bridges, and jobs building railways.
Now, these are the things I can do. And now, Members of Congress let me tell you what you can do for your country. You must pass the other elements of my plan to meet our economic needs. Everyone knows that investment spurs recovery. I am proposing this evening a change in the alternative minimum tax and the creation of a new 15-percent investment tax allowance. This will encourage businesses to accelerate investment and bring people back to work.
Real estate has led our economy out of almost all the tough times we've ever had. Once building starts, carpenters and plumbers work; people buy homes and take out mortgages. My plan would modify the passive loss rule for active real estate developers. And it would make it easier for pension plans to purchase real estate. For those Americans who dream of buying a first home but who can't quite afford it, my plan would allow first-time homebuyers to withdraw savings from IRA's without penalty and provide a $5,000 tax credit for the first purchase of that home.
And finally, my immediate plan calls on Congress to give crucial help to people who own a home, to everyone who has a business or a farm or a single investment. This time, at this hour, I cannot take no for an answer. You must cut the capital gains tax on the people of our country. Never has an issue been more demagogued by its opponents. But the demagogues are wrong. They are wrong, and they know it. Sixty percent of the people who benefit from lower capital gains have incomes under $50,000. A cut in the capital gains tax increases jobs and helps just about everyone in our country. And so, I'm asking you to cut the capital gains tax to a maximum of 15.4 percent.
I pride myself that I'm a prudent man, and I believe that patience is a virtue. But I understand that politics is, for some, a game and that sometimes the game is to stop all progress and then decry the lack of improvement. [Laughter] But let me tell you: Far more important than my political future and far more important than yours is the well-being of our country. Members of this Chamber are practical people, and I know you won't resent some practical advice. When people put their party's fortunes, whatever the party, whatever side of this aisle, before the public good, they court defeat not only for their country but for themselves. And they will certainly deserve it.
I submit my plan tomorrow, and I'm asking you to pass it by March 20th. And I ask the American people to let you know they want this action by March 20th. From the day after that, if it must be, the battle is joined. And you know when principle is at stake I relish a good, fair fight.
I said my plan has two parts, and it does. And it's the second part that is the heart of the matter. For it's not enough to get an immediate burst. We need long-term improvement in our economic position. We all know that the key to our economic future is to ensure that America continues as an economic leader of the world. We have that in our power. Here, then, is my long-term plan to guarantee our future.
First, trade: We will work to break down the walls that stop world trade. We will work to open markets everywhere. And in our major trade negotiations, I will continue pushing to eliminate tariffs and subsidies that damage America's farmers and workers. And we'll get more good American jobs within our own hemisphere through the North American free trade agreement and through the Enterprise for the Americas Initiative.
We must make commonsense investments that will help us compete, long-term, in the marketplace. We must encourage research and development. My plan is to make the R&D tax credit permanent and to provide record levels of support, over $76 billion this year alone, for people who will explore the promise of emerging technologies.
And I'm asking for more. Ask American parents what they dislike about how things are going in our country, and chances are good that pretty soon they'll get to welfare. Americans are the most generous people on Earth. But we have to go back to the insight of Franklin Roosevelt who, when he spoke of what became the welfare program, warned that it must not become "a narcotic" and a "subtle destroyer" of the spirit. Welfare was never meant to be a lifestyle. It was never meant to be a habit. It was never supposed to be passed from generation to generation like a legacy. It's time to replace the assumptions of the welfare state and help reform the welfare system.
President George Bush’s 1992 State of the Union Address
 
Impressive update as usual.

Now go take your turn in the Y2K election - either that or concede :p Either way I'd be happy.
 

Meko

Banned
Even in Tory-friendly circumstances there's only so much time before the "it's Time" factor kicks in and they get the boot. The most Thatcher ever got in her three elections was 43% by the way.
 
Update later tonight. Here's a live video of Rajiv's assassination. WARNING: not for the squeamish, you see Semtex detonation and aftermath.

As a side note: whose brilliant idea was it to allow anyone outside his entourage to come within 10 feet of him? Second, yet another proof why open-air rallies without proper screening inevitably leads to very unpleasant outcomes.
 
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in '08 lol, Not to much to comment as you know Relativley Recent Foriegn Affairs has never been my strong suit. But are you going to continue this till 2012...about 20 years after the POD? Or are you going to put it on the backburner, when you unviel A land of Milk and Honey?
 
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