Come What May: Alternate 80s and 90s

[Paul V McNutt]

As a former Gary Hart supporter I happy my efforts finally bore fruit. I guess hr kept pants zipped. Maybe there will br a sex scandal to come. I am surprised by his strength in South and that Jack Kemp carried New York. I am also surprised by the strength of Notth Koresns.

 

[JVM]

Many expected Michael Dukakis in '88? That's a surprise. He always seemed more of an accidental choice to me after Hart's OTL collapse.

 

[Orville_third]

This is starting nicely.

 

[Asami]

1988

The election of the Democratic Party in sweeping poll numbers brought an end to the Iran-Contra Affair through the basic detoothing of the Republican Party. Questioning and inquiries carried into the 1990s, and by the end of 1991, several members of the GOP involved in the Iran-Contra Affair were charged with treason for various reasons.

Al Gore's inauguration on January 20, 1989 was a theme of bringing to an end the war in Korea, which was rapidly turning back to America's favor, with Pyongyang effectively surrounded by UN forces. He also hit at Europe, saying that it was time to cement a friendship between Europe and America, including the Soviet Union.

The inauguration of Al Gore, 42nd President of the United States
January 20, 1989

The first few months brought about the victory in Korea, bringing to a formal end the long process of dealing with that. With the ROK marching victoriously through Pyongyang, Korea was now one; what that entailed for stability, Gore didn't know.

The further disunity of the Warsaw Pact kicked in again in April 1989 when the Hungarian government was forced to step down, paving way for free elections in 1990. Hungary formally withdrew from the Warsaw Pact and announced it's intentions to basically do what Czechoslovakia did, refuse to join NATO, but join the EEC. By September, 4 new nations were applying to join the EEC -- Norway, Sweden, Austria and Hungary.

The instability in the Soviet Union was effectively "lid-kept". On September 15, 1989, Mikhail Gorbachev and representatives from all of the Soviet republics gathered and signed the New Union Treaty. The New Union Treaty outlined a plan to "by 1995", federate the Soviet Union and grant greater influence to each state. However, the Lithuanian, Estonian and Latvian representatives refused to sign the treaty and demanded the restoration of "1940 borders" on their end. Gorbachev, pressured by demands to have the treaty quickly ratified, accepted their independence. The three Baltic States formally withdrew from the Soviet Union on October 1, 1989.

However, the New Union Treaty was ratified by 1990, cementing a stable future for the economically unsound Soviet Union.

Fresh out of the Korean War, a new threat of war on the Horizon threatened America much more so than the Korean War had. This would be one war that not even the peaceniks could ignore.
​

 

[Paul V McNutt]

The US Constitution does not define high treason just plain ol treason. wWhich is defined as making war on the United States or giving aid and comfort to the enemy. I don't think Iran Contra involved either of those.

 

[Asami]

The US Constitution does not define high treason just plain ol treason. wWhich is defined as making war on the United States or giving aid and comfort to the enemy. I don't think Iran Contra involved either of those.

Well, let me change the context. I'll explain why they were charged with treason in the next post.

 

[Paul V McNutt]

Well maybe if you could call Iran the enemy.

 

[Asami]

April 5, 1990
Washington D.C.

President Gore was roused from his sleep by Secretary of State John Kerry, a younger Democrat who had been rapidly shot up the ranks to a cabinet position by an adventurous Gore, that and Kerry's popularity from his exposure of the Iran-Contra Scandal aided Gore's own popularity.

Secretary of State, John Kerry

Secretary Kerry had with nervousness given the President the news from the Middle East. Just a few hours ago, Iran had launched a volley of missiles into Iraq, causing significant damage to Baghdad and had launched an invasion. Further reconnaissance had shown that Iraq's army was building up for an invasion of a neighboring country, probably either Iran or Kuwait.

Gore was apoplectic, and made preparations for a speech to Congress that morning. In the morning, he ascended the podium without remorse and gave a fiery condemnation of Iran, and the sale of weapons that are now "gone and with it, many innocent lives."

AP photo released in April 1990 showing Gore in a fit of rage

The President reamed out the GOP for it's irresponsibility, but stated, "The second outbreak of war between Iran and Iraq cannot be a time for America to go in head first without considering the consequences. We must discuss things with Europe and the Soviet Union before continuing on our merry way, attempting to force a ceasefire."

While Gore departed Congress to make his way to make diplomatic bells ring in Europe and Moscow, Democratic Senators and Congressmen established a second committee to investigate those responsible for Irangate. The subcommittee released it's final investigations to the FBI in July of 1990, giving a list of Republicans who were responsible for the Iran-Iraq War's restart.

This was followed the next day by Gore reappearing before Congress after significant diplomatic negotiations with Moscow and Europe that had dragged on far longer than he had hoped. He gave a brief speech and the Democrats voted with barely any defection to join a UN-sanctioned intervention against Iran.

The United States, France, Germany, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, United Kingdom and the Soviet Union together would commit to dismantling the offensive capacity of Iran.

On July 16, 1990, Soviet bombers from Azerbaijan and Georgia launched raids upon Iranian military installations in Southern Azerbaijan. Soon after, US forces launched volleys of naval attack from the Persian Gulf, attacking coastal defenses of the Iranian army.

After getting severely beaten by the US and Soviet Union in the South and North, Iran withdrew her troops from Iraq in August 1990 and offered "to assist Iraq in taking her prize, Kuwait in exchange for support against America."

This war drew the conspiracy of terrorists such as the Taliban who were attempting to dismantle the former Soviet puppet in Afghanistan.

The Gulf War massively inflamed by the summer of 1990, and US forces were now forced to defend Kuwait from Iraq-Iran invasion. The initial forces had very little to go by before being reinforced that November. In 1991, the Soviets once again re-entered Afghanistan and bolstered the Soviet-friendly regime. In-roads to Kabul delayed Soviet advance until March 29, 1991, when Kabul finally fell to the Soviet Union. The mujaheddin had no support from a major foreign power, and therefore, had less military capacity to wage a partisan war.

Islamist mujaheddin outside Kabul, 1991

Gore's war in the Middle East took a minor toll on his popularity, but nothing major. The effective failure of the GOP to reorganize after several leaders were sent to prison for seditious acts and later, treason, after the war with Iran began. This lead to the fracturing of the Republican Party among regional lines at the 1992 Republican National Convention, when Southern Republicans, Western Republicans and Northern Republicans bickered and quarreled over minute party policy.

In the 1992 election, the Democrats backed Gore and Hart for a second term, while the Republican Party nominated more than one candidate on different tickets.

Al Gore / Gary Hart (Democrat) - 383 EVs
Ron Paul / John Fleming (Union Party) - 122 EVs
Ross Perot / James Stockdale (Republican Party) - 17 EVs
George W. Romney / George Gilder (Conservative Party) - 8 EVs
Fife Symington / Garrey Carruthers (Southwestern Alliance) - 8 EVs

This lead to the first time in US history where numerous parties were seated in the Senate. The Southwestern Alliance held the seats of Arizona; The Union Party had displaced the majority of Southern Republicans, while the Conservative Party took over for Republicans in Alaska and Utah.

Al Gore declared in his second inaugural address in 1993 that "regardless of party politics and creed, we are all Americans, and we should fight above petty partisan politics." It was during this time that the war in the Gulf finally came to a sputtering end. The offensive capacity of Iran was crippled and in the Spring of 1993, Iran was in no condition to keep fighting. Iraq had been foresaken, and US forces overthrew Saddam Hussein by the end of May 1993. The Soviets overthrew the Taliban and installed the D.R. Afghanistan government over the whole country. Iran was being squeezed to death.

The Iranians, realizing that they were beating beaten, made quick action. In the early hours of June 20, 1993, a group of generals in the Army overthrew the Ayatollah and declared an immediate ceasefire, hoping to at least salvage some of Iran from US and Soviet occupation.

The following Treaty of Baghdad paved the way for the establishment of democratic elections in Iraq and Iran, and the dismantling of the Islamist movement... for now. In the shadows, however, Islamists were even more furious at their horrendous defeat. However, they had some ideas... If they could not beat America and Russia on the front-lines, then they would beat them by striking fear into their hearts.

A menacing note was left at the US embassy in Turkey. With just two words. "We're coming." It was dismissed as nonsense, but Gore's administration took it seriously and waited for the details as the FBI and CIA investigated the note.
​

 

[OnlyAlb]

I doubt David Duke would win any state. He was a former Nazi and KKK member.

 

[Lalli]

I doubt David Duke would win any state. He was a former Nazi and KKK member.

True. Or leastly he can't win so many states. Perhaps Alabama and Mississippi and even that seems implausible.

 

[Nazi Space Spy]

Nor would Ron Paul ever run with David Duke, despite the controversy surrounding his private racial views.

 

[Asami]

Ouch, ouch, well fine, my bad. I didn't realize Duke was a notorious KKK member. Huge gaffe. *throws someone else in*

Lots of the candidates lost their home states though.

Veep Gary Hart lost his home state of Kansas,
Veep Candidate Fleming lost his home state of Louisiana,
and Carruthers lost his state of New Mexico.

 

[troosvelt_68]

So this is going to be going in the direction of Democratic dominance for good (with the opposition divided like that) ?

 

[Asami]

So this is going to be going in the direction of Democratic dominance for good (with the opposition divided like that) ?

I wouldn't count the GOP successors dead.

 

[Andrew T]

Oooh, my favorite time period. Looks interesting.

One pretty big question at the outset, though: how did Al Gore -- someone with no national infrastructure and very little name recognition outside of Tennessee -- wind up at the top of the ticket with a viable Gary Hart?

Here's what I mean: Hart was a juggernaut at this time; he'd fought Walter Mondale all the way to the convention in '84, enjoyed high levels of name recognition and approval, and had the good fortune to have the "Seven Dwarfs" as his primary opponents. Without the Donna Rice scandal, he'd be the overwhelming favorite to garner the 1988 nomination.

So either something happens to knock Hart off the pedestal -- at which point he's not a likely VP candidate -- or nothing does, at which point it's very difficult to imagine someone else beating him for the nomination.

I should add that "overwhelming favorite" doesn't mean "inevitable"; after all, I'd say that Hillary Clinton was probably the "overwhelming" favorite for the 2008 nomination, and we all saw how that turned out. But that required a pretty amazing confluence of factors, some pretty unique circumstances, and a powerhouse candidate and campaigner in Barack Obama.

Particularly in '88, I don't think Al Gore can be that candidate. Keep in mind that Al Gore as of 1988 was the Third Way, centrist, southern candidate, DLC Al Gore -- and in '88, the DLC was a much-reviled minority faction in the Democratic party. It wasn't until after Dukakis pissed away what many believed was a very winnable election in '88 that Democratic Party insiders reluctantly agreed that something was wrong with the brand. And even then (with yet another powerhouse candidate in Bill Clinton), there was a pretty strong "stop Clinton" movement all the way through the end of the primaries.

If you're open to revisiting things, I'd suggest something like Hart-Clinton in '88. I also think you have Dems doing too well in the South. Even Clinton-Gore lost VA, NC, SC, AL, and MS -- and the only reason they won GA in '88 was because of Ross Perot; Clinton-Gore would lose all 6 states in '96 despite generally crushing Bob Dole. Conversely, even Michael Dukakis won NY in '88; it's hard to see any Republican winning it (even "home-stater" Jack Kemp).

Just some questions and thoughts. Keep at it!

 

[Asami]

Background: New Parties

In the spirit of Lincoln's "National Union", the Union Party was one of the major break-away factions of the Republican Party in it's 1990s dissolution. They were the largest faction that emerged from it, taking in most of the Southern Republicans.

The emerging leaders of the Union Party were Bob Dole, Ron Paul and John Fleming. Many other Southern Republicans, most notably Jeb and George W. Bush, sons of the late Vice President George H.W. Bush, flocked to the banner of the party. This party was adherent to a more pious conservatism, winning it the love of many Southerners.

The Union Party was a fiscally and socially conservative party. The party however, had two factions within it -- Ron Paul's Libertarians and Dole, Fleming and Bush's Conservatives.

In the 1992 election, the Union Party inherited the majority of the Republican Party's congressional seats and won 122 Electoral Votes, much more than the other Republican heirs.

Bob Dole, leader of the Union Party

The next major Republican faction was the National Conservative Party whom mostly were Western Republicans and notable Reaganites. The leaders of the party were Alexander Haig, Pete Wilson, and James Baker, notable Reagan cabinet members (Haig and Baker), and incumbent California governor. In the 1992 election, they had quickly thrown their weight behind Ross Perot's independent campaign, but won very few states in response.

However, despite their initial disorganization, they are considerably well off in the upcoming 1994 elections. It is believed they will win back some states from the Democrats and Unionists.

Pete Wilson, leader of the NCP

The third major faction was the Democratic-Republican Party. A call back to the old party, it was lead by even stranger bedfellows who saw Gore's administration as the only thing to really keep America floating, and they hoped to give a shot of conservatism to the liberal Democratic Party. Lead by Newt Gingrich and other Republicans, even Rockefeller Republicans, they were basically a wing of the Democratic Party, albeit Conservative.

Newt Gingrich, leader of the Democratic-Republican Party

The two minor Republican factions was the Revivalist Party under George Romney. Popularity for their party was limited outside Utah and Alaska, but it was sufficient enough to win them some minor seats in the Senate, much like the Southwestern Alliance which was mostly only in Arizona and New Mexico.

The Revivalists were notably conservative and even more religious radical than the Union Party, which would lead to a shift in the Union Party's religious fervor in later years.

The Southwest Alliance's primary policies were on immigration, which they believed should be "extremely limited to some groups". However, this massive disintegration of the GOP machine lead to a new party rising to American notability by the 1994 mid-terms.

The Social Democratic Party was once the Social Democrats, USA party, and before that, the Socialist Party of America. This party was dedicated to the ideas of leftism and social and economic policy to make the US more social democrat. They enthusiastically called for better social programs. Their candidate in 1992 had won no states, but the sudden upheaval in American politics increased the party's popularity. They however, continued to endorse the Democratic Party and attempted to influence it to be more leftist, while the D-R did the opposite.
​

​

 

[Asami]

Oooh, my favorite time period. Looks interesting.

One pretty big question at the outset, though: how did Al Gore -- someone with no national infrastructure and very little name recognition outside of Tennessee -- wind up at the top of the ticket with a viable Gary Hart?

Here's what I mean: Hart was a juggernaut at this time; he'd fought Walter Mondale all the way to the convention in '84, enjoyed high levels of name recognition and approval, and had the good fortune to have the "Seven Dwarfs" as his primary opponents. Without the Donna Rice scandal, he'd be the overwhelming favorite to garner the 1988 nomination.

So either something happens to knock Hart off the pedestal -- at which point he's not a likely VP candidate -- or nothing does, at which point it's very difficult to imagine someone else beating him for the nomination.

I should add that "overwhelming favorite" doesn't mean "inevitable"; after all, I'd say that Hillary Clinton was probably the "overwhelming" favorite for the 2008 nomination, and we all saw how that turned out. But that required a pretty amazing confluence of factors, some pretty unique circumstances, and a powerhouse candidate and campaigner in Barack Obama.

Particularly in '88, I don't think Al Gore can be that candidate. Keep in mind that Al Gore as of 1988 was the Third Way, centrist, southern candidate, DLC Al Gore -- and in '88, the DLC was a much-reviled minority faction in the Democratic party. It wasn't until after Dukakis pissed away what many believed was a very winnable election in '88 that Democratic Party insiders reluctantly agreed that something was wrong with the brand. And even then (with yet another powerhouse candidate in Bill Clinton), there was a pretty strong "stop Clinton" movement all the way through the end of the primaries.

If you're open to revisiting things, I'd suggest something like Hart-Clinton in '88. I also think you have Dems doing too well in the South. Even Clinton-Gore lost VA, NC, SC, AL, and MS -- and the only reason they won GA in '88 was because of Ross Perot; Clinton-Gore would lose all 6 states in '96 despite generally crushing Bob Dole. Conversely, even Michael Dukakis won NY in '88; it's hard to see any Republican winning it (even "home-stater" Jack Kemp).

Just some questions and thoughts. Keep at it!

Hrmmm, thanks for the help, but I've already entrenched Gore too deeply in it. Maybe if I do a reboot I'll change it. I'm planning a Hart/Clinton ticket in 1996.