Combined Bomber Offensive focuses on oil in 1943

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Deleted member 1487

What if the Combined Bomber Offensive, instead of being split between bombing cities for the RAF and hitting things like aircraft production and ball bearings instead focused on oil from the beginning?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_Bomber_Offensive
Since the CBO started in June 1943 let's assume everything up to that point was the same in terms of bombing priorities. But from June 1943 oil is hit as per the Oil Campaign:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Campaign_of_World_War_II
In March 1944 the "Plan for Completion of Combined Bomber Offensive" was put forward which found favour with the British Ministry of Economic Warfare. The plan proposed attacking "fourteen synthetic plants and thirteen refineries" of Nazi Germany.[15][16][17][18] The plan estimated Axis oil production could be reduced by 50% by bombing—33% below the amount Nazi Germany needed[19]—but also included 4 additional priorities: first oil, then fighter and ball bearing production, rubber production, and bomber output. The damage caused by the May 12 and 28[20] trial bombings of oil targets, as well as the confirmation of the oil facilities' importance and vulnerability from Ultra intercepts and other intelligence reports, would result in the oil targets becoming the highest priority on September 3, 1944.[21]

In June 1944, in response to Air Ministry query on resources, Bomber Command staff estimated it would take 32,000 tons of bombs to destroy 10 oil targets in the Ruhr. Harris agreed to divert spare effort to oil targets. They were deemed to be of such importance that one raid was staged that consisted only of bomb carrying fighters, to rest the bomber crews and surprise the defenders.[22]

In late summer 1944 the Allies began using reconnaissance photo information to time bombing with the resumption of production at a facility. Even with the weather limitations: "This was the big breakthrough...a plant would be wounded...by successive attacks on its electrical grid—its nervous system—and on its gas and water mains." (author Donald Miller).[5]:320 However, due to bad fall and winter weather, a "far greater tonnage" was expended on Transportation Plan targets than oil targets.[23] The benzol (oil) plant at Linz in Austria was bombed on 16 October 1944.[24]

As a POD perhaps 'Bomber Harris' suffers from a heart attack or something to remove that institutional block as an obstacle.

So as of June 1943 the OTL 1944 efforts against oil are started. What is the result of that effort? If the German war effort does really start to implode how does that play out in terms of ending the war and the ground conflict?

Edit:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Campaign_of_World_War_II#Opinions_on_outcome
Albert Speer, writing in his memoir, said that "It meant the end of German armaments production."[4]:412–4 It has been stated to have been "effective immediately, and decisive within less than a year."[35]
 
How much of the synthetic and refining capacities was reachable from the UK? You might need to beef up the 15th AF in Italy, and perhaps move some of Bomber Command south (which Harris wouldn't be keen on, to say the least).
 
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Deleted member 1487

How much of the synthetic and refining capacities was reachable from the UK? You might need to beef up the !5th AF in Italy, and perhaps move some of Bomber Command south (which Harris wouldn't be keen on, to say the least).
Considering that all of it was hit from Britain IOTL, I'd say all of it by 1943. The one part that wasn't was Romania, which required Italian basing to do much against (mine the Danube).
 
Tidal Wave was carried from North Africa. It is true that it was cut to pieces by romanian and german defences, but probably losses wouldn't have been so high if they attacked from altitude, but probably still as bad as Schweinfurt and so on. However, a good number of consecutive attacks could potentially cripple the Ploiesti oilfields like it happened in 1944 - if the americans would stomach the losses.

On the negative side there is the issue of significantly less affected fighter production, so many more fighters are built. Whether they run out of fuel to use those increasing numbers effectively if the oil production is much reduced, that's something for the boffins who know about existing oil reserves, consumption, estimated production (even if much reduced in this TL) etc. Of course, it's bad if they indeed seriously damage the oil production, but not enough to prevent the use of larger numbers of fighters. Could even force the germans to not do utterly wasteful operations like the "baby blitz", instead husbanding the bombers and remaining fuel to oppose the invasion, even greatly cut or even cancel bomber production much earlier.
 
The Rumanians opinion was the Allies or US missed the boat in not following up on Operation Tidal Wave. In the weeks following that raid the Rumanians claimed shipments were down 30%+. They restored the refineries to 80% in a couple months & to 90%+ in a few more weeks, also told the Allies post war that similar raids each month would have prevented restoration and reduced output further. They also noted how the 1944 raids were relativly ineffective as the bombs were too scattered to have the intended effects. Their opinion of the high altitude bombing techniques used in the later raids was negative.
 

Deleted member 1487

Tidal Wave was carried from North Africa. It is true that it was cut to pieces by romanian and german defences, but probably losses wouldn't have been so high if they attacked from altitude, but probably still as bad as Schweinfurt and so on. However, a good number of consecutive attacks could potentially cripple the Ploiesti oilfields like it happened in 1944 - if the americans would stomach the losses.

On the negative side there is the issue of significantly less affected fighter production, so many more fighters are built. Whether they run out of fuel to use those increasing numbers effectively if the oil production is much reduced, that's something for the boffins who know about existing oil reserves, consumption, estimated production (even if much reduced in this TL) etc. Of course, it's bad if they indeed seriously damage the oil production, but not enough to prevent the use of larger numbers of fighters. Could even force the germans to not do utterly wasteful operations like the "baby blitz", instead husbanding the bombers and remaining fuel to oppose the invasion, even greatly cut or even cancel bomber production much earlier.
I was talking about the raids that actually made an impact and the first ones were in 1944 from Italy.
And fighters don't matter if there isn't fuel to fly them or train pilots as the Luftwaffe found out in 1944. Even prior to the oil campaign the Germans were having to dramatically cut back on training operations, so fuel fall off a cliff before the Germans can use the slightly increased fighter output to significant effect. Plus more bomber losses in the short term to win the war 12-18 months early saves a lot more people in the long run.

The Rumanians opinion was the Allies or US missed the boat in not following up on Operation Tidal Wave. In the weeks following that raid the Rumanians claimed shipments were down 30%+. They restored the refineries to 80% in a couple months & to 90%+ in a few more weeks, also told the Allies post war that similar raids each month would have prevented restoration and reduced output further. They also noted how the 1944 raids were relativly ineffective as the bombs were too scattered to have the intended effects. Their opinion of the high altitude bombing techniques used in the later raids was negative.
AFAIK despite the 40% loss in refining capacity there was already underutilization in capacity due to the Romanians trying to conserve their declining oil reserves, so the destroyed capacity proved unnecessary.
High altitude raids were the only option considering the insane amount of FLAK and fighters defending Romanian oil. Danubian mining worked extremely effectively for much lower cost from 1944 on.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Tidal_Wave#Result
Only 88 B-24s returned to Libya, of which 55 had battle damage.[2]:222 Losses included 44 to air defenses and additional B-24s that ditched in the Mediterranean or were interned after landing in neutral Turkey. Some were diverted to the RAF airfield on Cyprus.[2]:196 One B-24 with 365 bullet holes in it landed in Libya 14 hours after departing;[18] its survival was due to the light armament of the Bulgarian Avia B-534 (4 x 7.92mm machine guns).

310 aircrewmen were killed, 108 were captured by the Axis, and 78 were interned in Turkey, 4 were MIA in Yugoslovia and taken in by Tito's partisans.[1]:76 Three of the five Medals of Honor (the most for any single air action in history) were awarded posthumously.[1]:77 Allied assessment of the attack estimated a loss of 40% of the refining capacity at the Ploiești refineries,[1]:75 although some refineries were largely untouched. Most of the damage was repaired within weeks, after which the net output of fuel was greater than before the raid.[1]:75 Circa September, the Enemy Oil Committee appraisal of Ploiești bomb damage indicated "no curtailment of overall product output"[8] as many of the refineries had been operating previously below maximum capacity.
 
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Would hitting the rail system that transported the fuel from Romania to Germany have been a wise decision? You'd have to keep hitting it, of course, but if the oil doesn't reach its destination that's still a win...
 

Deleted member 1487

Would hitting the rail system that transported the fuel from Romania to Germany have been a wise decision? You'd have to keep hitting it, of course, but if the oil doesn't reach its destination that's still a win...
No, because it was shipped up the Danube via barge to Austria and it's refineries. That's why the Brits focused on mining the river in 1944, which effectively shut down oil supply from Romania before the Soviets overran the country. The problem is that to do that you need close bases, which were seized in Southern Italy in late 1943-1944.
https://weaponsandwarfare.com/2015/09/01/wwii-mining-the-danube/
http://www.rafcommands.com/forum/showthread.php?21170-Mining-the-Danube-in-1944
http://forum.12oclockhigh.net/archive/index.php?t-5806.html
 
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