Deleted member 1487
What if the Combined Bomber Offensive, instead of being split between bombing cities for the RAF and hitting things like aircraft production and ball bearings instead focused on oil from the beginning?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_Bomber_Offensive
Since the CBO started in June 1943 let's assume everything up to that point was the same in terms of bombing priorities. But from June 1943 oil is hit as per the Oil Campaign:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Campaign_of_World_War_II
As a POD perhaps 'Bomber Harris' suffers from a heart attack or something to remove that institutional block as an obstacle.
So as of June 1943 the OTL 1944 efforts against oil are started. What is the result of that effort? If the German war effort does really start to implode how does that play out in terms of ending the war and the ground conflict?
Edit:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Campaign_of_World_War_II#Opinions_on_outcome
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_Bomber_Offensive
Since the CBO started in June 1943 let's assume everything up to that point was the same in terms of bombing priorities. But from June 1943 oil is hit as per the Oil Campaign:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Campaign_of_World_War_II
In March 1944 the "Plan for Completion of Combined Bomber Offensive" was put forward which found favour with the British Ministry of Economic Warfare. The plan proposed attacking "fourteen synthetic plants and thirteen refineries" of Nazi Germany.[15][16][17][18] The plan estimated Axis oil production could be reduced by 50% by bombing—33% below the amount Nazi Germany needed[19]—but also included 4 additional priorities: first oil, then fighter and ball bearing production, rubber production, and bomber output. The damage caused by the May 12 and 28[20] trial bombings of oil targets, as well as the confirmation of the oil facilities' importance and vulnerability from Ultra intercepts and other intelligence reports, would result in the oil targets becoming the highest priority on September 3, 1944.[21]
In June 1944, in response to Air Ministry query on resources, Bomber Command staff estimated it would take 32,000 tons of bombs to destroy 10 oil targets in the Ruhr. Harris agreed to divert spare effort to oil targets. They were deemed to be of such importance that one raid was staged that consisted only of bomb carrying fighters, to rest the bomber crews and surprise the defenders.[22]
In late summer 1944 the Allies began using reconnaissance photo information to time bombing with the resumption of production at a facility. Even with the weather limitations: "This was the big breakthrough...a plant would be wounded...by successive attacks on its electrical grid—its nervous system—and on its gas and water mains." (author Donald Miller).[5]:320 However, due to bad fall and winter weather, a "far greater tonnage" was expended on Transportation Plan targets than oil targets.[23] The benzol (oil) plant at Linz in Austria was bombed on 16 October 1944.[24]
As a POD perhaps 'Bomber Harris' suffers from a heart attack or something to remove that institutional block as an obstacle.
So as of June 1943 the OTL 1944 efforts against oil are started. What is the result of that effort? If the German war effort does really start to implode how does that play out in terms of ending the war and the ground conflict?
Edit:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Campaign_of_World_War_II#Opinions_on_outcome
Albert Speer, writing in his memoir, said that "It meant the end of German armaments production."[4]:412–4 It has been stated to have been "effective immediately, and decisive within less than a year."[35]