Denmark (?) was more - do they side with one German power (Prussia or Austria) over the other in a bid to recover some of the territory lost in the Danish war?
Given the geography, my guess is if they did, it would be with the Austrians against the Prussians, but they may just remain neutral.
Best,
Schleswig-Holstein was an indivisible unit by law from several centuries beforehand (pretty hard to butterfly), and I doubt that either Austria or Prussia would fight a war for Schleswig-Holstein and then give up their claims to it. Certainly Prussia is geographically in a better position to hold Schleswig-Holstein than Austria is, I don't disagree with that for a moment, and yes I suppose that would be a lure to side with Austria, but I presume that the Danes, like the rest of Europe, initially held the opinion that Austria was a greater power than Prussia and that this opinion would counteract Prussia's proximity in Danish minds; only once the Austro-Prussian War was already in motion would they realise the scale of that misjudgement and by then it would be silly to pick the side that was evidently going to lose. That's why neutrality is my suggestion… acting on the presumption that Austria's army is still as weak (relative to Prussia's) as was the case IOTL, which of course may not hold in this ATL scenario.
thanks for all the input so far. if i try & proceed with this its still a couple decades away in my TL so it'll be a bit but just wanted to see what all i could learn about this possibility.
You're welcome. I hope I'm being reasonably helpful.
If France intervenes after the Austro-Prussian War has started with both sides in that war as strong as they were at that time OTL, what are Prussia & Italy & their allies chances? what would be the most probable territorial changes to occur if they won?
It depends on the background. If the Austro-Prussian War is occurring roughly as it did IOTL and then France intervenes out of shock and horror at Prussia's unexpected victories, France won't have time to intervene before Prussian victory is assured; due to Prussia's vastly superior mobilisation process, Prussia will have time to finish crushing Austria and then pull troops west to fight France, in which case the Franco-Prussian War will be a similar walkover to OTL. But if Austria and France are together from the start (a very difficult proposition, for the reasons that I outlined in my previous post) Prussia may not have enough troops to devote to both theatres. Prussia will still vastly outclass Austria and France in terms of quality of planning and it is difficult to overstate the advantage that this will give, but great victories, especially Sedan-esque great encirclements, will be much more difficult when Prussia has so far fewer troops (mostly due to its engagement against Austria but also due to its lack of the German states that fought beside it IOTL). Still, Prussia's general staff was incredibly competent (and France's was the exact opposite) and Prussia also had the benefit of a greatly superior mobilisation time, so I would expect that Prussia may well be able to do considerably better than a simplistic analysis (e.g. compare industrial capacity, subtract and decide the winner, or do the same thing with number of soldiers) would suggest. It's of course a matter of debate whether this would have been enough, but I would expect that with most plausible PoDs Prussia will execute a mini-Schlieffen plan but with east and west reversed, Austria will fairly soon be out of the war and Imperial France, cautious and militarily ineffective, will have been unable to occupy enough of Prussia and its allies to resist a new Prussian offensive from battle-hardened Prussian troops.
A great deal also depends on diplomacy. If Austria withdraws from the war even though France has joined in, Prussia will be in a considerably better position than if Austria stays in. If Austria stays in the war the outcome, I would expect, is that Prussia will take Vienna; what follows will depend on whether King Wilhelm I of Prussia decides to listen to Bismarck or to try to make major territorial gains (which is actually possible, given what Wilhelm I was like). I don't know enough about Austria in that era to make a well-informed statement on whether it would choose to stay in the war.
In summary: I can't say very much without knowing the circumstances, but very broadly I'm thinking a probable Prussian victory.
Would Prussia unify Germany 5 years early & what effects would that have?
If Prussia wins, the simplest outcome will be that *Germany will be considerably less federal and more Prussocentric. The other German states will be bowing to Prussian strength when they join the *German Empire, though those that fought with Prussia in the war will do better than those did not. The annexation of Alsace-Lorraine (either to Prussia directly or as a
Reichsland; they both amounted to Prussian control so it makes little difference which) and (if it occurs) the annexation of Austrian lands, potentially (though not certainly) coupled with further annexations from the Austrian-allied small German states since Prussia has been fighting for longer, will vastly increase Prussia's strength in Germany, which will be impressive since IOTL Prussia was already 60% of Germany. This might cause dissatisfaction in some of the other German states, especially if there's a *
Kulturkampf. The states that fought beside Prussia will do better than those against it, so I imagine that Germany will be fairly northern-centric.
IOTL Prussia's victories changed the balance of power; in this scenario (if Prussia wins) they'll rip it into a million pieces. Prussia will have proven itself to be capable of defeating
two out of three of the premier European land powers
at the same time. IOTL the main effect of Prussian victory that impacted on the UK was that it made France unable to cooperate with the UK in containing Russian expansion because now France had to worry about a new, powerful threat on its eastern border, and indeed Russia soon took advantage of the opportunity. In this scenario, Russia might be bolder. Whether or not it comes to an actual war between the United Kingdom and the Russian Empire, virtually all inter-European relations will have to be reconsidered in light of this tremendous change, and so will some internal affairs, such as inter-ethnic relations in the Habsburg empire.
If Austria and France win, the outcome will depend on the degree of their victory. If it's a great OTL-esque crushing victory, Prussia will lose lands, France will probably expand eastwards (though the extent of the latter depends on how far Napoleon III listens to the nationalist press in France) and Austria will be seen as a collaborator with France. A victorious Austria might be able to co-opt pan-Germanism in this scenario as Prussia did IOTL, but it will be harder because there will also be a strong temptation for pan-Germanism to develop as anti-Austrian. If it's a less decisive victory (which is difficult to imagine, given the Prussian tendency to commit large numbers of troops to decisive battles, but perhaps possible, especially if you change pre-1866 Prussia) then there might be a
status quo ante bellum, but France still might expand a little; it will depend on how the war goes.
Would Prussia, in this situation, still try for Alsace & Lorraine or just wish to end the war quickly with France & not take any territory for themselves
The same people who wanted to annex Alsace-Lorraine IOTL will want to do the same in this scenario; a longer, harder, bloodier experience will only make their calls stronger. If anything, I would think that (presuming Prussian victory) the Prussians will take
more than they did IOTL, not less—though taking exactly the same as what they took IOTL remains my prediction.
The annexation of Alsace-Lorraine was not a war goal. I think it was fairly opportunistic.
& if so would Italy still try for some?
I know very little about Italian history; perhaps
lukedalton can help you here.
