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As per the title. I understand that the German military establishment had little confidence in the Schlieffen plan, and that there was a great deal of uncertainty over whether Britain would actually intervene in response to a Belgian invasion. So for the sake of this scenario, let's say that Britain makes it's objections clearer. Even then their will be an anti-German constituency in Britain... but OTOH the cabinet was narrowly divided on whether to enter even with the Belgian invasion. So in addition to not invading Belgium, let's assume the Germans make an active and successful effort at avoiding a cassus belli that would put wind in the sails of the anti-German faction.

Of course the Germans without Belgium to pass through would be unable to launch a meaningful assault on France proper. But OTOH France would be similarly unable to assault Germany, le.aving Germany free to tear into Russia. And, importantly, a long drawn out war with France would be far less problematic for the Germans in this scenario. On the A-L front they could simply hold a (mostly)defensive line and let the French throw their troops into the meat grinder. The greatest source of urgency for the Germans came from the British blockading the German access to overseas trade(for example, nitrates). But the French couldn't perform a comparable blockade given their inferior navy, so the Germans could safely focus on Russia and let the French beat themselves bloody on the trenches until they gave up.

However, a static front in Europe doesn't mean the French and Germans couldn't duke it out at sea or in the colonies. And so we've arrived at the title
question: how is this likely to proceed?

Looking at a 1914 map of the world, the only direct borders between the German and French empires are between Cameroon-French Equatorial Africa and Togo-French West Africa. The latter looks completely indefensible at first, being swamped by FWA... but on further consideration I can't imagine the supply chain through FWA would be developed enough to be of much initial use, which means the French strip between Togo and Nigeria is in much the same troubled position of having to be supplied by sea via a narrow stretch of coast.

The French would probably have a first mover advantage though, due to having a larger number of troops in West Africa and far more colonial resources to draw upon. So it becomes a question of whether the Germans are able to rush forces to Togo and or Cameroon in time to shore them up(and whether they'd bother). Beyond that I'd imagine any assaults on other colonies would target strategic islands and ports... although if the French are frustrated by their inability to confront Germany in Europe, they might shift full bore into invasions of German colonies, with Germans feeling compelled to match them. The downside for the French here is that the German navy clearly outclassed their's, so if they were smart they'd limit direct engagement as much as possible.

One thing I've overlooked. Britain not intervening doesn't mean nobody else will. Presumably the Ottomans still side the Germans against their Russian nemesis... and I could see the French launching a massive assault into the Levant in lieu of having a worthwhile front in Europe... which might actually mean the Ottomans being in a worse position then they were OTL facing only what France and Britain bothered to scrape out of the barrel. Then there's Japan and Italy, which both face an interesting choice.

For Italy, their craving for the ethnically Italian A-H territories still stands. But at the same time they had designs on Corsica, Savoy and French North Africa. OTL they waited for nearly a year whether out of uncertainty or just to haggle for a better deal, but realistically they would never have backed the CP when that meant facing off against the British navy. Since that's not a concern in this scenario, they may give more thought to the possibility of joining the CP.

As for Japan, they were principally Britain's ally and Russia's nemesis. Without the British participation in the war, I imagine joining the CP looks rather tempting- on the one hand they might snap up the German concessions in China and some German Pacific islands. On the other hand they might snap up the French concessions in China, French Pacific islands and Indochina, while weakening Russia and grabbing Russian Sakhalin and Manchuria in the bargain. The latter is higher reward, but also higher risk- the French in Indochina and Russians in Siberia will be far tougher to overcome then Germany's limited Pacific possessions.

Of course, Britain not entering the war doesn't mean they're neutral. I imagine the French would have access to the Suez canal while the CP would be denied, with the excuse being that the French are half-owners of it. And they might well lobby the Japanese and Italians to "not pick the wrong side".
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