As I often say, a "WW2" against Stalin is very unliley. The man was paranoid, paranois, paranoid. He was convinced that the capitalist powers could and would gang up and crush him and was constantly trying to avoid this and divide them. Invading a cordon country would be a good way to unite them.
He invaded Finland because of the M-R Pact, and the pact happened because, having been rebuffed after ,ultiple attempts to split his rivals by allying with the Entente, he decided to temporarily back Germany instead. If Germany isn't stearing head-first towards conflict with the Entente, the Pact is never signed, and its unlikely that any Red Army men ever set foot in Finland.
(Actually, it seems to me that, as paranoid as Stalin was, the best way to get the "Red Alert scenario" is probably from the other side. Poland was not always completely rational in the interbellum. Nor was Britain.)
True, it wouldn't happen as it nearly did IOTL. But still, as you say the Poles were rather nazis-lite and the Soviets were certainly looking to expand albeit carefully.
I'd think sooner or later a conflict would emerge.
And that said, an undevestated USSR not locked in an extraterrestrial willy-waving contest with the USA is going to have a lot of resources to put towards anti-colonial movements.
Its quite a rump USSR here, they miss out on their war time aquisitions, both their small (but rich) annexations and their European empire.
It'd still be a threat of course, its Russia, Russia does have a relatively large population, an awkward geographic position and a lot of land and resources. But it wouldn't be anywhere near the same level of super-powerdom as OTL. Consider too the soviets couldn't push their luck. In this world we'll have aircraft continuing to develop but nukes well behind schedule....With no risk of the end of civilization and European powers still feeling confident about their strength the slightest bit of evidence for Russians supporting terrorists could lead to something rather messy.
Things could be different in other colonial empires but I don't see the communists being much worse in most of the British empire than IOTL.
Remember, the soviets weren't all about decolonisation and the removal of imperialism though that was what they liked to disguise things as, they were all about the extension of their imperialism. In Malaya and the like it wasn't the people vs. the occupiers, it was the democracy supporting groups (and the Europeans) vs. the socialist regime supporting groups.
I'm not saying have to be worse. They could very well be better. But let's not imagine they necessarily have to be either: the probability is that, as usual, it'll be better for some colonies, worse for others. And even that's a generalisation.
True. But then if we're just going to say that why bother with alternate history at all. Anything happening different could result in any of a number of things happening
Something completely forgotten up to now which has just come to me- East Asia.
You've still got the empire of Japan sitting on Korea...they're not going to go quietly at all...A possible flashpoint for a war with the Soviets supporting communist groups? Possible future Japan vs. the west war? It seems to me like the French in Algeria if the French were total hardliners...Or would forward looking democrats eventually win out in Japanese politics and eventually spin Korea off as a dominion or independant country?
What about Japan in China? Are they getting involved at all or staying out since we're supposing no WW2?
No Japanese invasion, no war, no Soviets seizing Manchuria=no PRC? Instead the nationalists win out and Mao and co are crushed?
I wonder too...how would European politics go? This is the deciding factor for what happens abroad, what happens at home.
We're assuming a much further left Europe from the get-go with no Nazis but what about in Britain and France? Anti-military ideas could still be rather strong, the Great War continuing to be regarded as the war to end all wars. No upsurge in nationalism due to the war and occupations...Things could well go a bit better for European socialists. Or would the lack of a need for rebuilding and less inpoverished people reduce their support overall?