Hello all. To start with, want to tip my hat off to the board as this is my first post ever, hope I don't disappoint. When I found this board while browsing the internet for various Cold War Turned Hot scenarios and fiction I immediately knew I'd hit a goldmine.
Now the topic of this TL is the eruption of the Third World War between the Soviet Union and its allies, and the United States and its allies, in the timeframe of the late 1960s and involving primarily conventional means with limited incidents of widespread nuclear weapon usage.
The Cause ("Point of Divergence")
The 1960s was absolutely rife with incidents and events which could easily have erupted into WW3. The decade-spanning Vietnam War which in 1968 was intensified with the launch of the North's Tet Offensive and an increasing amount of anti-war sentiment from the US Public; various African post-colonial independence movements throughout the decade; the 1961 Berlin Crisis that saw Soviet and American tanks face off across the East-West Berlin border; the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion against newly Soviet-aligned Cuba and the subsequent Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962; the 1967 Arab-Israeli War; the Chinese Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution, which, beginning in the late '60s, was starting to look more and more like a second civil war; the May 1968 Paris Crisis; the Polish uprisings and "Prague Spring" Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968; all of which could have been the spark that started the great fire. Added to this, both China and France were developing their nuclear armaments programs, starting with France's first nuclear detonation in 1960 followed by China's in 1964. In both countries, the development of these weapons coincided with an increasing determination for political and military independence from traditional allies; France would ultimately withdraw completely from NATO's military command structure and expel all NATO forces from its soil, while China and the Soviet Union parted ways ultimately leading to a series of limited border skirmishes. Adding to the political quagmire that was being developed was the formation of the Non-Aligned Movement in 1961, launched by Yugoslavia, Egypt, India, Indonesia and Ghana, which sought a more 3rd World alternative to the East vs West dynamic of geopolitical realities of the period. All of these events can be conveniently summed up by the Doomsday Clock, which in 1968 experienced its largest single negative change, -5 seconds, of the entire Cold War.
The POD for this TL is the June 2nd, 1967 visit to West Germany of Iranian Shah
Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, a prominent US-backed "puppet" who's oppressive regime in OTL would eventually lead to the Iranian Revolution in 1979. Ahead of his visit, left-wing activists in West Germany planned for large-scale protests, and a decision prompted by East German intelligence services was made of infiltrating East German spies into the protest movement in an effort to radicalize them and prompt a larger-scale student uprising against the West German government. This decision culminated in an attempted assassination of the Shah during his visit. The immediate effects of the assassination attempt were a brutal crackdown on both the protest movement and against all perceived left-wing organizations. This in turn led to a radicalization within the protest movement and a galvanization of formerly unaligned civil and political movements to form a broader, more militant coalition. More radical elements within this coalition would form a precursor group to the later Red Army Fraction, which began carrying out violent attacks in West Germany. While these movements were not overtly Soviet-aligned and pledged no loyalty to East Germany or Moskow, West Germany spared no expense in vilifying them as radical Soviet-influenced terrorists. This accusation eventually led to the widespread belief both among politicians and the public that these left-wing radicalists were being armed and supplied via East Germany. In an ironic twist of faith, border security on the western side was strengthened in the belief that agents and supplies were being smuggled into the West under the guise of East Germans seeking to defect. The efforts came to an unprecedented head when a group of East Germans attempting to enter West Germany were fired upon by West German border guards; whether these men were legitimate immigrants seeking defection or Soviet intelligence operatives was never clarified by the incident provoked East German forces into returning fire. Seeing this as a sign of East German military support for the attempted infiltration, West German forces reinforced their positions, leading to sporadic fighting that lasted for 3 days in mid-November of 1967. Both East and West German forces responded by mobilizing forces to their frontier, followed by US and Soviet mobilizations, primarily in East-West Berlin, that saw a dramatic face-off of tanks and infantry similar to that seen in the 1961 Berlin Crisis.
By early 1968 political tension was intensified as West Germany accused the Soviets of instigating terrorism on West German soil while East Germany and the Soviet Union accused the west of using the incident as an excuse to attack the Soviet Union and its allies. Military tensions quickly escalated following a series of incidents in the Black Sea that saw Soviet and Turkish forces clash, resulting in the sinking of two Turkish and one Soviet warship. Both sides spared no expense accusing the other of attempting to provoke war.
Meanwhile, in Vietnam, the January 1968 Tet Offensive began in earnest with tens of thousands of North Vietnamese troops attacking over 100 major targets throughout South Vietnam. The offensive, as it played out, shocked western military commanders due to such a widespread and well-coordinated attack carried out by what many previous believed was a disorganized and logistically-shattered enemy.
In the Eastern Bloc, January also saw the election of reformist Alexander Dubcek to the post of leader of the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia and his execution of various economic and civil reforms that Soviet leadership immediately assumed was an attempt by the US and western forces to destabilize the Warsaw Pact. When it became clear that military intervention on the part of the Warsaw Pact was imminent, West German military forces mobilized on the Czechoslovak border. NATO and US command saw Prague Spring as an opportunity to knock out one of the Warsaw Pact's most important members, and the decision was made, in light of the belief that the Soviets were actively supporting uprisings in West Germany, to intervene.
When Soviet and Warsaw Pact forces entered Czechoslovakia in August 1968 German forces crossed the Czechoslovak border. Citing the belief that Czechoslovak was collapsing politically and militarily and urging the need to secure border defense, as well as claiming that Czechoslovak General Secretary Dubcek had requested West German military assistance, West German forces raced Warsaw Pact forces to Prague. It was believed among NATO high command that if NATO forces could reach and capture Prague before Soviet forces, the Soviets would back down and accept Czechoslovak independence. However, such was not the case; when Soviet and West German forces met east of Prague immediate fighting broke out. While the Soviets had reached the outskirts of Prague first, the NATO incursion into the country sparked a violent uprising in the city and a complete collapse of centralized government; various Czechoslovakian military commanders immediately began jumping from one side to the other, with units mobilizing to defend against both NATO and Soviet forces. The result was a confusing, violent three-way battle; Dubcek, for his part, declared his intention to drop Czechoslovakia out of the conflict by declaring it a neutral 3rd party in the hopes of prompting a withdrawl of Soviet and NATO forces but he was largely ignored.
The outbreak of a Third World War seemed inevitable.
The Players (Who will take part)
By the late '60s the world was a smorgus-board of political intrigue, alliances and pacts as east and west pursued their proxy wars against each other all across the globe. Obviously, of course, the two major players are the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact and their immediate satallites and allies, and US forces along with their NATO partners.
It was not so black-and-white, however. In 1966 France officially withdrew from NATO's military command structure and evicted NATO forces from French soil after years of pursuing a more independent course in international relations. Communist Yugoslavia under Tito joined with Egypt, India, Ghana and Indonesia in creating the Non-Aligned Movement in 1961, pledging neutrality in East-West relations; of interesting note during this period is the Yugoslav military planned for both a NATO and Warsaw Pact invasion of their country. The Sino-Soviet split was by the mid-60s complete with Communist Albania joining the Chinese camp following its withdrawl from the Warsaw Pact in 1968, and with both the Soviets and Chinese massing ground forces along their border and small skirmishes breaking out along the frontier by 1969. Meanwhile, South America and Africa were being torn apart by various conflicts between communist guerillas, nationalist militias and puppet governments of both East and West.
Nuclear Question
Of unfortunate importance is the extreme disparity of US and Soviet nuclear forces. By the mid-60s the US had over 6,500 nuclear warheads available in their stockpiles while the Soviets had less than 500; the US also had a technological and numerical edge in the capabilities and availability of delivery devices; however both sides probably had more than enough nukes to annihilate one another as well as delivery methods necessary (ICBMs primarily). It is likely both sides would want to avoid nuclear confrontation as much as possible though France, the United Kingdom and China would likely be more willing as they far more than the United States would be at threat of invasion. In particular, a byproduct of French withdrawl from NATO military inclusion was a formulation of an independant nuclear battle strategy that called for the use of nuclear weapons by default should France be attacked by the Soviet Union, whether that attack was nuclear or not. However in the mid-60s French nuclear capability was still infantile and it is unlikely that, would they have chosen to go through with nuclear response to a conventional attack, that it would have any other significant outcome other than the annihilation of France by Soviet nuclear response and large-scale damage against France's individual targets.
In short while I am a fan of post-apocalyptic fiction, for the purposes of this particular timeline I'd like to refrain from complete global annihilation and stick to no larger than tactical and theatre weapons.
The First 24
The first incident of hostilities extending outside of Czechoslovakia occured in Berlin. While some elements of both sides' high command hoped that the fighting around Prague would be quickly extinguished and a cease-fire declared, a serious sense of paranoia of impending attack spread through the ranks on the ground. All movement along other frontiers was seen as a potential sign of impending attack and it came as no surprise that the dramatic standoff occuring in Berlin sparked into a pitched battle.
The question of who fired first is likely never to be exactly determined by future historians. What is known is that a sudden and pitched battle erupted between Soviet and NATO forces along various border crossings between East and West Berlin on August 29th, approximately one week after fighting between Soviet and NATO forces in Czechoslovakia began. In one of the more unique occasions in the history of warfare, the battle began as a frantic stationary firefight between US and Soviet tanks who earlier had been stationed across from one another at the various checkpoints along the Berlin Wall. Both sides suffered heavy losses in the point-blank shootout with reinforcement waves arriving within the first few hours. The first actual penetration was launched by US and British forces via several crossings in the south of the city as US M60s and British Chieftains with infantry support crossed the border in pursuit of withdrawing Soviet T-62s. This prompted a response from the Soviet and East German Air Force who launched conventional air strikes against various civil and military targets during the night in hopes of stalling the spearhead until Soviet reinforcements could be called in. This, in turn, provoked NATO forces into launching air strikes at their own targets inside East Germany. By the next day (August 30th) Warsaw Pact and NATO air forces were engaged in a pitch battle over Berlin as fighting erupted throughout the city. Newsreel of the fighting was heavily circulated, showcasing a Berlin skyline with countless plumes of smoke rising skyward from various points in the city.
The main Soviet counterattack came late the next day (August 31st-September 1st) as their elite frontline forces launched a full-scale, multi-pronged assault into Berlin from all sides. A massive air operation launched by NATO to maintain the air corridor between West Germany and West Berlin was launched that saw a spread of air combat across much of Germany. Hopelessly outnumbered and surrounded on all sides, NATO forces in East Berlin pulled back to their West Berlin defenses and dug in for the defense as they awaited reinforcement or extraction. They carried out a fighting retreat for much of the 3rd day of the Berlin fighting (September 1st), demolishing East Berlin roads and fortifying the perimeter of West Berlin. Throughout that day and the following (September 2nd), NATO forces in West Germany were mobilized along the East-West frontier for a military incursion to relieve West Berlin. However Soviet forces acted first; as fighting raged on the outskirts of West Berlin a major Soviet armored thrust was launched across the northern plains into West Germany in the early morning hours of September 3rd. NATO forces were caught with their pants down; semi-mobilized forces quickly thrown into the defense were sent into full retreat away from a numerically superior Soviet attack. For the next week Soviet forces pushed NATO forces westwards, stalled only temporarily by sporadic attempts of West German forces to fortify various towns and cities along their offensive routes. Most attacks against these targets were spearheaded by East German forces in the hopes that West German resistance would be less willing to fight to the death against fellow Germans. While the tactic worked on several occasions, a handful of determined holdout units lead to brutal fighting, particularly as they approached the heavily industrialized Ruhr region by September 11th.
A flurry of political activity exploded within the ranks of NATO high command as various elements came to a head over the issue of a strategic withdrawl out of Germany. US and British military commanders preferred a strategic retreat into France and the Low Countries, while others demanded immediate reinforcement of forces still holding on in Germany. Complicating the issue was France's exclusion from NATO military circles, and much confusion reigned as NATO and French military channels began the process of re-establishment, an issue complicated by domestic turmoil within France as Charles De Gualle's government came under increasing pressure from radicalized public elements to declare immediate neutrality and keep France out of the conflict.
This turmoil would eventually spawn something of a political scandal as NATO command, dominated by the US and UK, were forced to accept a strategic withdrawl from Germany. The order was officially given on September 12th. Feeling betrayed by their allies, many West German officials called for an immediate withdrawl from NATO and the signing of an independent peace accord with the Soviet Union; images of smoke rising out of Berlin and other cities brought back painful memories of the devastation wrought on Nazi Germany during the Second World War and these sentiments were supported by a large-scale propaganda campaign launched by the Soviets and left-wing groups that pledged the Soviet Union's fight was against British and American imperialism and not the German people. German and NATO forces in Czechoslovakia, faced with a possible encirclement due to heavy defeats in northern Germany, executed a full-scale withdrawl back into Bavaria starting on September 13th. The Warsaw Pact armies sent into Czechoslovakia, numbering at this point nearly 750,000 (half of which made up of various Bulgarian, Romanian and Albanian units), immediately pursued, crossing the border into Germany in the middle of the night on September 15th-16th.
By this time the "Fortress Berlin II" was on the verge of collapse. Completely cut off from the West the Soviets launched a large-scale bombardment of the city with both land and air-based conventional attacks after lines of communication were cut to ensure images of devastation in the city were not used as an anti-Soviet propaganda tool in the West. Soviet command made a public international pledge to maintain West German sovereignty in hopes of dissuading further defense, though secretly moves were already being made within Soviet and East German government circles to carry out a forced reunification of Germany under East German control. Thus on September 16th NATO forces in West Berlin officially surrendered to East German forces. Several prominent members of the West Berlin government, including its mayor, were placed under house arrest and plans were made for the creation of a transitional municipal council that would decide the future fate of the city, including possibility of reunification with East Berlin.
With West Berlin surrendered and its occupation placed largely in the hands of the East German authorities, Soviet forces immediately began relocating westward for a second thrust into West Germany towards Frankfurt. As southern Soviet forces began approaching the outskirts of Munich NATO defense kicked up, stalling progress and prompting on September 20th the launch of a third, more limited attack through the Fulda Gap towards Frankfurt. The result was a large-scale pitched battle, recorded historically as the "Battle of the Gap", between US and Soviet tank forces to the northeast of Frankfurt. Although the Soviet force deployed in the attack was relatively small, the earlier decision for strategic retreat out of Germany and the collapse of the West German government meant that only a relatively small US screening force was staged in the Frankfurt area, tasked solely with slowing down the Soviet advance so that larger-scale mobilizations and redeployment could take place in the Netherlands, Belgium and France. While slowed, Soviet progress was continuous and by September 22nd Soviet forces began clashing with French occupational and advanced frontier forces operating in their zone of occupation for the first time.
French Response
As fighting in Germany picked up France, both internally and externally, was in a state of turmoil. The De Gaulle even before hostilities broke out was suffering its most unpopular period and protests earlier in the year, during May, almost succeeded in toppling the government. To add to this, the French government's insistence on independentinternational development left France at odds with NATO command. A number of high-ranking military officials urged that France should immediately deploy heavy troop concentrations into their zone of occupation in West Germany and prepare all forces -- including their small but still potentially devastating nuclear arsenal -- on high alert. Should Warsaw Pact forces move into their West German occupation zone, they argued, an immediate and full-scale attack should be launched in coordination with NATO.
Other elements however, particularly those who had for the past decade -- including De Gaulle -- harbored a resentment towards perceived American and British hegemony in NATO and pushed for France to pursue an independent course in global politics, began formulating the first plans for an independant cease-fire with Warsaw Pact forces. They argued, among other things, that West Germany (with NATO complacency) initiated hostilities by sending troops into Czechoslovakia and that the conflict should be recognized as one between East and West Germany rather than a global conflict -- a line of thought apparently supported by the fact that outside of Germany and Central Europe no hostilities had yet broken out. In the end, pro-NATO forces within the government lost out -- French diplomats in Moscow met with the Soviet Foreign Ministry and succeeded in planning a non-aggression accord that would see French stay out of the fighting. The French proposal was quite aggressive; one major point in their demands was that their occupational zone would remain in French hands and no Warsaw Pact occupational troops be allowed in (though they would recognize and allow non-military German authorities to maintain sovereignty). Despite East German protests, Moscow agreed to this proposal; they understood the French need to maintain a buffer zone both between the German military and their border, and Warsaw Pact forces. It was seen as a small price to pay for France's assurances of non-interference. A Soviet proposal, that France immediately halt all NATO movement within the zone, particularly of combat personnel and equipment, was denied; France would allow NATO forces to pass freely through their zone. What resulted was a rather sad state of affairs as West German, American and British forces retreating from Germany passed by their former comrades of the French Army; at the same time, however, NATO forces were given a window of brief respite as the Soviet advance slowed and air attacks ceased when they entered French occupational territory.
France's "betrayal" was met with international scorn on the part of NATO nations. At the UN, French diplomats came under heavy attack from their American and British counterparts. France responded by declaring that the conflict was and should be limited to an East-West German affair and accused both American and Soviet leaders of manipulating the situation to their own benefits. They condemned the West German incursion into Czechoslovakia as unlawful, berating NATO for not including France during the planning and execution of the exercise. NATO responded by accusing France of turning its back on its neighbours, first by terminating French-NATO military cooperation and then initiating their own "surrender" to the Soviet Union. Behind the scenes however, France continued to lend material and logistical support to NATO, allowing limited NATO military overflights along its northern airspace and use of French ports in transporting material to NATO forces in Europe. They also allowed retreating NATO forces fleeing West Germany temporary, limited access to French soil so that they could move to locations in Italy and Belgium adjacent to France. While this initially angered the Soviets, their concerns were mainly securing West Germany, moving against NATO forces retreating into the Netherlands and Belgium and dealing with Denmark.
One byproduct of France's peace deal was something of a sense of relief among some sectors of NATO command. First, the fact that the French were fully committed to using all of their available nuclear arsenal against a Soviet attack left many believing that all-out nuclear war was inevitable. Second, many believed that once the Soviet Union responded with a large-scale nuclear attack against France, it would all but wipe out France as a nation, particularly in the military sense -- allowing Soviet forces freedom of movement through all of France that would encircle remaining NATO forces in the Low Countries. Third, the existence of France as a neutral party served in the eyes of many British politicians and military officials as an important buffer against Soviet air power; with France officially refusing overflights from any of the belligerent's air forces the Soviets would be forced to launch strategic attacks against Britain from the direction of the North Sea, an area extensively guarded by NATO force from Britain, the Netherlands, Belgium and Norway. Ontop of this, France began to secretly allow the use of airbases in the north of the country for NATO purposes.
Negotiation
By the beginning of November 1968 things were at a standstill on the ground. France, Belgium, the Netherlands and West Germany were ravaged by the two-month-long air campaign to destroy military infrastructure by both sides. The Soviet advance had been checked by diligent strategic bombing of important transportation facilities and NATO forces in Belgium and the Netherlands now had over a month to dig in and prepare for their final stand. The reality of a brutal, concentrated slugfest in the Low Countries coupled with the difficulty in transporting sizable reinforcements to the area prompted a Soviet cessation of offensive ground maneuvers. Both sides moved to mobilize their armies in the most effective manner to ensure quick victory; in Vietnam, efforts on the part of the US to draw Australia into a larger role in Vietnam to allow a US redeployment of military assets to Europe began; the first 10,000 US soldiers leave Vietnam for Italy in mid-October; to compensate for the immediate loss, US strategic bombing of North Vietnamese targets intensifies to unprecedented levels; the US declares it is determined to win the war in Vietnam even if it means turning North Vietnam into a desolate wasteland.
The issue of nuclear confrontation is at the forefront of populations in Europe and the US. The formerly anti-Vietnam War movement in the US transforms into anti-Nuclear War movement; they decry that nuclear escalation will mean the total annihilation of all of Europe and the deaths of tens of millions there should tactical nuclear devices be used. Likewise, European communities are unwilling to pursue the option of nuclear aggression due to the likelihood of their cities and people becoming victims of the collateral damage. The UK is one of the major factors preventing NATO escalation; with a foothold still being maintained in continental Europe and Italy a direct threat against British sovereignty has yet to materialize and air strikes against targets on the Isles have been limited primarily to coastal ports and airfields. Neither side has as yet deployed large-scale strategic conventional air forces to the engagement nor directly targeted each other's nuclear arsenals -- it is believed that threatening the nuclear arsenal of either nations is paramount to threatening the survival of the nation itself; once that nation realizes its nuclear response capabilities are at risk of total destruction they would undoubtedly launch a full-scale global nuclear attack while they still have that option.
Diplomatic negotiations are spearheaded by members of the Non-Aligned Movement as well as Canada, Belgium and the Netherlands. While a ceasefire seems unlikely, they urge both sides to continue to pledge to avoid the use of nuclear arms, particularly after the devastation wrought on and by France. Both sides however are keen to avoid another Sitzkrieg, both NATO and Warpact command believing that a final blow is inevitable and that allowing the enemy time to recuperate and reinforce their positions may give them an edge when hostilities do eventually break out.
By late November the transitional government of West Germany unanimously adopts an initiative to merge with the East and reunify Germany as one nation. The Soviets launch an unprecedented show of hospitality towards West Germany, openly maintaining a strict non-interference policy towards the two Germany's as they declare that "German unification is an issue belonging only to the Germans". Soviet leaders even declare that they are willing to accept a unified Germany withdrawing from the Warsaw Pact. This is, however, a complete fabrication; behind the scenes East German and Soviet intelligence work hard to ensure that a unified Germany remains aligned with Moscow and continues to support Warsaw Pact forces with military assets. Large attempts are made at avoiding occupational violence but several prominent members of West Germany's prewar government are placed under house arrest and military curfews are put in place. Many Germans flee into the Netherlands and Belgium. A battle of propaganda starts as the western world schisms into two opposing camps, who on the one side want to liberate Germany and push the Soviets out of Europe once and for all and even launch large-scale nuclear attacks on USSR territory, and those who want to see an end to fighting and a period of peaceful liberalization befall Europe. Some segments of American society believe that the US should withdraw from NATO and return to the pre-WW2 isolationism, turning America into a fortress protected by thousands of miles of ocean that the Soviet Union would not dare attack. They cite that as of yet no "Pearl Harbor" has taken place and that the US strategic nuclear arsenal is more than enough to persuade the Soviets not to extend the conflict beyond Europe.
In Italy, major redeployment of US forces from Vietnam is in full swing, putting pressure on Warsaw Pact high command to keep up the pressure lest NATO forces fully recover and launch a full-scale counter-attack back into Germany and France. It is this reality that pushes the Soviets to start...
The Second Front
Perceiving the danger of mounting a large-scale assault on Italy over the Alps, Soviet command searches for other targets that will weaken the global stability of the western powers as they reconcile their command and supply lines after having conquered most of continental Europe. The Soviet Air Force is engaged in a brutal battle of attrition with NATO and US Air Forces across most of Europe. They continue to put pressure on Italian and British air supremacy but their bomber forces suffer increasing casualties. Likewise, western air forces are finding it much harder to penetrate into Soviet airspace to hit important targets in Eastern Europe; as a result most air assets deployed by either side are in the form of smaller jet fighters and attack aircraft carrying out quick strikes against individual military and infrastructure targets.
The Soviets see two major possibilities for the opening of a second front, their first choice being Spain. Due to its proximity to the Strait of Gibralter, and that seaway's importance in allowing western logistical access to Italy, it is a prime target for Soviet intervention and efforts are already underway to establish political connections in the country to destabilize the Franco regime by January of 1969. A number of Soviet specialist agents are smuggled into the country to act as advisors and trainers to anti-Franco forces, who started a growing rebellion against the regime when hostilities were breaking out in Germany. This was followed January 20th by a larger operation that saw several Soviet Airborne detachments deployed to the country. Their role was twofold; to support left-wing guerillas against the Spanish military and begin preparatory work for deployment of Soviet air forces that would be used to engage NATO targets in the Atlantic and Mediterranean.
Rebel forces largely succeed in toppling the Franco government through large areas of the country. Most major military installations and cities are taken, many without a fight as government agencies and officials simply surrender at the first sign of rebel forces. It is rumored that Cuban advisors and trainers have been deployed with Soviet forces in the country to facilitate communication and cooperation and provide a "Spanish-speaking face" to Soviet-Spaniard relations.
The move sees a marked escalation in attacks by NATO forces against Spanish military installations, particularly those earmarked for Warsaw Pact use. Before Spain fully recuperates and before the Soviets finalize their deployment into the country, NATO ground forces, led primarily by the British, launch a counter-invasion via Gibralter, quickly taking several major southern cities before the arrival of Soviet and rebel forces. Intense fighting ensues with Soviet and Spanish forces caught unprepared, having become used to much lighter (and often non-existent) Franco resistance. Soviet equipment has already begun arriving in parts of Spain, prompting widespread aerial attacks against civil transportation links into the country. Fighting intensifies in the south as many pro-Franco loyalist troops pledge support to British forces. Both sides take heavy casualties; NATO forces are committed to staying, knowing that a Soviet presence on Spain's southern coastline is paramount to a complete encirclement of their Italian position. The Soviet military is unable to effectively deploy large-scale forces and deliver their necessary logistical needs; while supplies are routinely smuggled into the country Soviet forces there are forced to rely heavily on untrained, under-equipped rebel forces. They do manage, however, to stop the British defense; Spain is effectively torn in half with sporadic, disorganized fighting erupting across the width of the country. While NATO forces are better able to deal with the issue of supplies and control on the ground they are hard-pressed to commit sizable forces to the fighting due the precarious position their forces find themselves at in Europe and American insistence on escalating the Vietnam conflict to secure a quick victory there.
The Third Front
The next choice for a second front was Iran, Turkey and the Middle East; while a Spanish campaign eventually won out as primary focus, a secondary two-pronged attack was launched into Iran and Turkey weeks later in mid-February, in order to seize Arab oil and secure routes between the Black Sea and Mediterranean. Resistance in Iran is light and, as usual, the invasion was proceeded by a period of political manipulation on the part of the Soviet Union and their political allies inside the country. The Iranian people, still angry over the US deposing of the democratically elected government of Prime Minister Mossadegh in the '50s, and the increasingly repressive regime of the Shah throughout the '60s, more or less welcome the Soviet invaders, who pledge to help Iran return to their independent and nationalistic course by casting out all remnants of previous US involvement. The Shah, seeing the intense outrage against his rule abdicates to the Soviets in return for being allowed to stay as figurehead leader of the new Iranian Republic. Promises of a democratic revolution eventually go undelivered as the Soviets are more interested in securing a Moscow-aligned government. With the Shah pledging allegiance to Moscow, further political intervention is seen as unnecessary.
The Soviet advance into Turkey, a member of NATO since 1952, is slow owing to difficult terrain and the voracity of Turkish resistance. Soviet Marine landings along the Black Sea coast prove impossible for Turkish forces to resist but Soviet casualties quickly began to mount at an alarming rate. A second ground attack by Bulgarian and Romanian forces from their northern borders on February 26th makes little immediate progress. For the most part, Turkey appears to hold its own against Warsaw Pact forces, maintaining most of its border outposts towards Bulgaria and Romania and mounting an effective semi-guerilla defense against Soviet forces in the southeast supplied thanks to NATO control of the Mediterranean.
These advances into the Middle East and the threat to Iraq posed by the Soviet thrust prompts NATO command, by emergency decree, to immediately ratify Israel as a new member of the Organization. Immediately following, Israeli forces invite a large NATO contingent onto their soil, part of a primarily British and Italian plan to try and beat the Soviets into Iraq or at the very least prevent them from reaching Saudi Arabia. Jordan initially refuse to allow British and Israeli entry and when British forces audaciously rolled into Jordan regardless on February 28th, their defense lasted a mere day as concentrated NATO and Israeli air and ground attacks crippled their military infastructure, annihilated or captured most of their battle-ready frontline divisions, and plowed on towards Iraq, with a secondary force splitting south into Saudi Arabia to reinforce units there. The quick elimination of all organized Jordanian resistance was mostly due to Israeli successes in the Six Day War of 1967; the Jordanian air force had barely begun to replace its lost military assets, and expertise gained by the Israelis proved vital in securing a quick victory.
British and Israeli forces reached the Iraqi border just as forward Soviet units reached the Jordanian border on March 3rd, with fighting quickly intensifying as armored forces faced off. The combination of British experience with desert warfare tactics and Israeli familiarity with Soviet equipment utilized by Jordan and Syria in previous wars, coupled with NATO use of well-developed Israeli airfields (while Soviet forces had at best obsolete and underdeveloped Iranian airbases) led to a surprise victory for NATO forces which sent the numerically-superior Soviet forces reeling by March 7th. In one of the first major Soviet upsets of the conflict British and Israeli forces pursued their retreating enemy right up to the banks of the Euphrates river, a formidable obstacle that Israeli and NATO forces extensively targeted to destroy most its bridges, cutting off further Soviet advances and preventing many retreating Soviet forces from escaping. By March 10th Israeli and NATO forces completely overwhelmed the defenders and began the process of capturing and interning approximately 50,000 Soviet prisoners of war.
The Asian Question
Throughout the European campaign, China remained neutral, owing to an almost equal mistrust of both the Soviet Union and United States. However they decide to promptly capitalize on the situation, pledging more overt support with both manpower and materials to the North Vietnamese and deploying several hundred thousand troops into North Korea for what was expected to be a renewed initiation of hostilities on the Korean peninsula. Unwilling to cede more territory to communists -- whether they were aligned with the Moscow or not -- the United States and Australia drastically ramped up their participation in Vietnam, with Australia initiating a full mobilization and large-scale deployment and US air attacks on the North extending to both Cambodia and inside the Chinese border by February 1969. Australia would provide most of the manpower in southeast Asia, with most US pacific ground forces not already redeployed to Italy being deployed in South Korea and Japan. In an unfortunate series of events and growing frustrated at a lack of progress in Vietnam, the US launched their first military use of nuclear weapons when tactical warheads were authorized for use against North Vietnamese targets. Low-yield attacks proved devestating against the North Vietnamese, particularly as several devices are used against targets in and around Hanoi. This prompted direct Chinese intervention on the invitation of the North Vietnamese with several Chinese units deploying into North Vietnam on March 10th.
China also acted on their long-standing dispute with the Republic of China (Taiwan), launching full-scale air attacks against the island country in preparation for a seaborne attack. The attack, involving upwards of 500,000 PLA troops and launched on March 15th 1969, was extremely costly for the PRC, with over 100,000 soldiers killed and just as many wounded; half of the casualties were a result of concerted US and Taiwanese efforts to attack the myriad assortment of mostly civilian fishing vessels used to transport Chinese forces to the island. Despite the losses, Taiwanese forces were quickly overrun after a brutal ground campaign, followed by an equally brutal purge of ex-KMT members and supporters (which, given that most of the entire country was made up of those who fled mainland China to establish KMT rule in Taiwan, was a great many people). By the end of March Taiwanese independence was shattered as it was officially incorporated into the People's Republic of China, even while small pockets of KMT holdouts remained.
US forces were quick to retaliate with the largest nuclear attack to date; approximately 100 nuclear devices ranging in size from less than 10 kilotons to over a megaton were used against Chinese targets such as cities, factory districts, ports and major military installations between March 30th and April 4th. Despite the monolithic size of the nuclear assault it proved ineffective at annihilating China's military and industrial capability; in an ironic twist of fate, Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward initiative in the late 1950s, which strove to decentralize Chinese industry and led, in OTL, to much economic and industrial hardships, served as a measure of protection against all but a complete razing of the entire country; with uncountable numbers of smaller factories spread across the country instead of concentrated into a few industrialized areas, much of China's industry survived though further industrialization was severely hampered and food and material shortages would plague them for years.
Although China had detonated its first nuclear device in 1964, its nuclear stockpile was ineffectually small and it lacked a dependable system for delivery. Nuclear retaliation would come, however, when North Korean and Chinese forces finally attacked South Korea at the end of April; the attack involved a large wave of Chinese bomber aircraft against Seoul, 6 of which carried China's only military-grade nuclear weapons. The combination of conventional and nuclear bombing was to protect the vulnerable nuclear aircraft by "hiding" them in a fleet of externally identical aircraft. Interception and anti-aircraft fire downed two of the nuclear bombers before they made it to their target but the remaining four successfully dropped their bombs, devastating the governmental and industrial districts of the city. Fortunately for Seoul the weapons were of poor quality and resulted in much smaller explosions than hopes for by the Chinese. Still, many tens of thousands of South Koreans perished.
Ground fighting on the peninsula was characterized primarily by heavy US air superiority that took a heavy toll on North Korean and Chinese forces. The nuclear attacks pushed Chinese communists into a military alliance with the Soviet Union and two weeks into the Korean campaign Soviet Air Force units were deployed to the theatre that helped reduce, but not remove, this air domination. Despite this, the US maintained the upper hand thanks to its extensive carrier fleet which allowed US strike aircraft freedom of movement to avoid attack by communist aircraft; while ground-based air stations can be easily found and attacked, a constantly-moving carrier is far harder to pin down. This air superiority and relative immunity from outright destruction initially gave western forces on the ground the ability to hang on despite overwhelming numbers of communist troops. However the fighting took an increasingly heavy toll on civilians on both sides; US strategic (though conventional) bomber forces razed much of the North, while Chinese and North Korean forces carried out a scorched earth campaign as they advanced in retaliation for the nuclear attacks on China. With Soviet involvement in the Korean conflict growing, the US was unwilling to launch further strategic nuclear attacks for fear of breaking earlier promises not to use nukes against the Soviet Union. Like in Vietnam however, use of tactical nuclear weapons was authorized; US carrier aircraft continued to carry out surgical nuclear strikes on industrial and military targets in China. By early May 1969 Soviet advisors in technical, industrial and military fields returned to China. Of particular importance to the Chinese were nuclear scientists; most of their nuclear industry had been destroyed and they desperately sought re-armament with nuclear weapons. By May 5th Chinese and North Korean forces entered Seoul, but were however unable to progress further owing to US air dominance. Fighting the war in both Vietnam and Korea, China found itself logistically and economically taxed and caught between Vietnamese and North Korean allies both of whom began requesting full deployment of all Chinese reserves in their countries to achieve a final victory. Australian forces in Vietnam were fully mobilized by this point and launching major offensives against North Vietnamese ground forces, while fighting had stagnated in Korea.
The Front Lines
With the fighting in Europe and Asia, efforts were made throughout South America and Africa for renewed uprisings by communist and leftist forces, while western-aligned governments cracked down heavily on dissidents. With many of these governments and rebellions pledging support to the US and USSR, for the first time in history conflict raged on every continent as part of one continuous, connected World War. By the middle of 1969 the situation in Europe had ground to a standstill with both sides unwilling or unable to deal a final blow to their continental enemies. Instead, battles raged in other places across the globe; in Spain, Turkey, Iraq, Vietnam and Korea. The Non-Aligned Movement, particularly Yugoslavia and India, found themselves under increasing pressure to pick a side. Yugoslavia, a communist nation, was naturally pulled towards an alliance with the Warsaw Pact. India, on the other hand, seeing the newly-found alliance between the USSR and former enemy China, called for increased friendliness towards NATO nations. Both countries, and other members of the Movement, were content however with attempting to play the role of arbitrator and peacekeeper between the two sides, with delegations sent to Moscow, Berlin, London and Washington and UN headquarters in New York.
UPDATED 14/12/10