Delta Force
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With a PoD after 1945, how could the two major Cold War blocks have come into a position of both economic and military parity?
With a PoD after 1945, how could the two major Cold War blocks have come into a position of both economic and military parity?
In my view this is pretty much ASB after 1945. The Russian Empire was a third world country with low population density, poor literacy rates and an appalling climate. That is a very, very low base to build up from. For the Soviets to build up to the point that they equaled the richest, most powerful country in the world... Well, I just don't see how they could have done it without a PoD in the early 20s, and even with an extra 20 years to make better decisions in, pretty much everything would have to go right for them to equal the US - i.e. we're talking a brazen wank.
OTL the only country to overtake the US economically between 1900 and 1989 was Japan - and Japan has a highly concentrated population all of which is fairly close to a port. That allowed the Japanese to follow an economic development strategy based on trade which the USSR could not replicate with as much success (though the USSR being more trade-focused instead of wasting vast amounts of resources developing uneconomical resources in Siberia in the 70s and 80s would definitely have helped them come closer to being an equal).
Similarly, after 1945 the Soviets have extremely limited opportunities in Western Europe. Britain, France, Germany the USSR and the minor European states all in one alliance might be able to act as a real equal to the US, after 1945 though, the best I can see being possible is for the strong alliance between the US and Europe to not form.
Do the two cold war blocks have to include the US? Because the US turning isolationist again is about the most likely path I can see to the Soviet block gaining parity.
The Soviet Union has a larger population and more natural resources than even the United States. The Western Soviet Union has some of the best coal and iron deposits in the world, as well as the best farmland. The Soviet Union was also the largest petroleum producer in the world.
The Commonwealth was the only other superpower at the time. Maybe if the United States doesn't economically undermine it or the Seuz Crisis doesn't occur it would be in a position to replace the United States in the Cold War.
IMO if you can prevent (or minimise, or later repair) the Sino-Soviet split, and kill Mao off while doing it, an Eastern Bloc of the USSR and PRC would definitely be a much more formidable enemy that either opponent in isolation.
Too little too late IMO, the Soviet economy is on the rocks, and the Chinese one hasn't the weight to back them up, plus neither nation has liberal enough economies to allow the level of growth needed to really equal the USA, not without significant outside investment, which isn't going to come, with or without NATO.Hmm. How about an extended cold war scenario where the Soviets and the Chinese have a rapprochement in the 80s even as the US-China relation freezes after Tienanmen Square. The Chinese follow pretty much their OTL course of reform as the Soviets have some success in implementing Hungarian style market socialism (not IMO a long term solution for their economic woes, but let's assume it allows them to at least keep up with US economic growth over the '90s and 2000s). Both China and the Soviets have some success in splitting the Europeans from the "western" side of the Cold War, perhaps with the Soviets allowing German re-unification in order to secure Germany's exit from the NATO alliance. France follows in the decade following German re-unification, with the EU becoming an independent military alliance as well as an economic alliance (I imagine the UK would be even less keen on the EU in TTL).
Too little too late IMO, the Soviet economy is on the rocks, and the Chinese one hasn't the weight to back them up, plus neither nation has liberal enough economies to allow the level of growth needed to really equal the USA, not without significant outside investment, which isn't going to come, with or without NATO.
Stalin only ruled until 1953. Unfortunately, Khrushchev, while an improvement, wasn't himself a genius, and Brezhnev was worse.Stalin killed most everyone with any initiative or intelligence. And the ones who werent killed were too scared to speak up. So the USSR isnt catching up. If you want parity, you need a dystopic USA. Hard to do.
Stalin only ruled until 1953. Unfortunately, Khrushchev, while an improvement, wasn't himself a genius, and Brezhnev was worse.