Codreanu not assassinated?

What would the results of the famous Romanian fascist leader not getting killed have on Romania's future? Would they ally with the Germans and/or Italians? I'm not very well-versed on post-1900 history, but I thought this would be interesting to see answered.
 
I think that Codreanu's survival would have the opposite effect - "fascist solidarity" with Germany and/or Italy would eventually fly out the window.

In OTL, the Legion of Archangel Michael stayed (mostly) passive during the Second Vienna Award drama. It (mostly) did not lose its pro-German profile even after Berlin forced the Kingdom of Romania to cede half of Transylvania to Hungary.

But this stance was heavily influenced by the killing of Codreanu and by the royal government's purges against the Legionaries, which allowed new men like Sima to rise to the top. Much of Codreanu's surviving old guard actually wanted to resist the violation of Romania's territorial integrity at any cost - even by breaking off from Nazi Germany and allying with the USSR, if necessary.

So if Codreanu lives, I think the Legion stops being a part-time headless chicken and voice for collaboration with Berlin - and instead joins the ranks of those demanding that Carol II reject the Vienna Dictate and take a forceful stand. ("We refuse to cede any territory to your friends...oh, and if you invade us, we're ready to bleed you and ready to blow up the oil industry.") This might very well sway the balance and force Carol II to change his foreign policy. Then the question becomes - do the Germans swallow the veiled ultimatum? Do they leave Romania whole and grudgingly accept its limited cooperation, or do they get bogged down in an (even worse) mess in the Balkans?
 
But this stance was heavily influenced by the killing of Codreanu and by the royal government's purges against the Legionaries, which allowed new men like Sima to rise to the top. Much of Codreanu's surviving old guard...

You seem to be dealing with this as if Codreanu had been killed by lightning. But, naturally, the forces that wanted Codreanu dead would still be in existence if he somehow survived, for instance by escaping from prison. And since they were, in OTL, powerful enough to have him killed, it is certain that they'd still oppose him, and it's likely they'd still be more powerful than him.
The old guard was, as you aptly said, "surviving". That was because it was by then deemed either toothless or realigned with the King's policies. The part of the old guard that wouldn't be so was the part that died with Codreanu.

...actually wanted to resist the violation of Romania's territorial integrity at any cost - even by breaking off from Nazi Germany and allying with the USSR, if necessary.

Naturally, there is the difficulty that the USSR also wanted territory, and I doubt the mere fact that a Legion-led Romania would stay away from Nazi Germany might suffice to convince Stalin he did not need Bessarabia (and maybe the rest). Further complication is that

...your friends...

at this time, included the USSR. The delivery of Bessarabia to the SU was in the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreements.
 
That was not public knowledge at the time though

No. So suppose Codreanu, the famously rabid anti-Communist, makes a 180° (after all, Hitler did that too) and, either as an opposition leader or directly as the new Conducator (maybe he'll choose the title of Capitanul instead) opens talks with the Soviet Union. He'll be told, yes, we will support you against Germany - for a price that's called Bessarabia and Bukovina, and maybe we want a gift for Bulgaria too, which we think can also be wooed away from Germany. Where does that leave Codreanu?
 
You seem to be dealing with this as if Codreanu had been killed by lightning. But, naturally, the forces that wanted Codreanu dead would still be in existence if he somehow survived, for instance by escaping from prison. And since they were, in OTL, powerful enough to have him killed, it is certain that they'd still oppose him, and it's likely they'd still be more powerful than him.
The old guard was, as you aptly said, "surviving". That was because it was by then deemed either toothless or realigned with the King's policies. The part of the old guard that wouldn't be so was the part that died with Codreanu.

While Codreanu's survival could be by accident, one can reasonably assume that it would be the result of a different policy and attitude by the royal government.

Also note that the late realignment between Carol II and Sima's Legion was a two-way street. It did start off with desperate Legionaries latching on to a chance to stop persecution; but turned into an increasingly desperate Carol II making overtures to the increasingly haughty and uncompromising Legionaries.

The idea is not so much that Codreanu could successfully organize a coup against the royal government - I suspect he could not, though it's not impossible. But that with Maniu's Agrarians, Codreanu's Legionaries and most of the Liberals united in a political front against the Second Vienna Award, Carol II would be facing a truly titanic opposition, and may have to take the plunge and reject the Award. (Or abdicate and let the opposition take control, which amounts to the same thing.)
Naturally, there is the difficulty that the USSR also wanted territory, and I doubt the mere fact that a Legion-led Romania would stay away from Nazi Germany might suffice to convince Stalin he did not need Bessarabia (and maybe the rest).

Maybe I didn't phrase it clearly enough. The Second Vienna Award came two months after the Soviet annexation of Bessarabia. These Legionary "old guard" elements wanted to resist the Vienna Dictate so much, that they were even willing to ally with the USSR after it had already taken Bessarabia (if necessary).

So I suspect Codreanu's answer in this
...opens talks with the Soviet Union. He'll be told, yes, we will support you against Germany - for a price that's called Bessarabia and Bukovina, and maybe we want a gift for Bulgaria too, which we think can also be wooed away from Germany. Where does that leave Codreanu?
hypothetical would be "sounds good, when do we start?". After all the "price" called Bessarabia and Bukovina has already been "paid" anyway.
 
While Codreanu's survival could be by accident, one can reasonably assume that it would be the result of a different policy and attitude by the royal government.

In which case, however, the what-if is not about Codreanu and his possible survival and policies if he survives; it's about the rest of the political forces in the country, why and how they changed their minds, and what they'd do once they came to agree with the Legion's ultra-nationalist stances.



Maybe I didn't phrase it clearly enough. The Second Vienna Award came two months after the Soviet annexation of Bessarabia. These Legionary "old guard" elements wanted to resist the Vienna Dictate so much, that they were even willing to ally with the USSR after it had already taken Bessarabia (if necessary).

So I suspect Codreanu's answer in this

hypothetical would be "sounds good, when do we start?". After all the "price" called Bessarabia and Bukovina has already been "paid" anyway.

Sorry, I doubt it could work, if things work out in the same order as in OTL. That's exactly because, if Codreanu had been alive, he would have done anything, up to and including more political assassinations, to prevent the handing over of Bessarabia and Bukovina. Especially to the Soviets.
He could hardly then turn around and tell his base that it's now up to the Soviets: since they have already taken what they wanted, they should now ally with Romania and defend it from Germany.
And, if he did, it's not a given that the Soviets would run such a risk anway; they feared Germany more than they coveted the advantages to be gained.

Could you name, by the way, a couple of those "old guards"? They're not Sima and his men, they are not the inner circle of Codreanu, who are they?
 
Could you name, by the way, a couple of those "old guards"? They're not Sima and his men, they are not the inner circle of Codreanu, who are they?

They were members of Codreanu's inner circle: Radu Mironovici, Ilie Garneata, Corneliu Georgescu...people who had been with Codreanu since the early 1920s and ranked among his closest friends and allies.

Come to think of it, that means all 3 founding members of the Legion still alive in 1940 (out of the original 5) were in this camp.
 
OK, I see I don't know enough, so I probably have to take your word for more than this only... two out of three are new to me.
 
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