Cod, Oil, and Airbases: A Newfoundland TL

2000px-Dominion_of_Newfoundland_Red_Ensign.svg.png



What if on July 22, 1948 Newfoundland had voted for responsible government over Confederation with Canada. Can this nation survive on it's own or will it have to tie itself to one of the two giants next door.

1932- On April 5th, a large crowd of 10,000 people march on the colonial building in St.John's. They are protesting corruption in Prime Minister Richard Squires government and the dire situation of the economy. The march soon turned into a riot as thousands of people tried to gain access to the colonial building where the Prime Minister was hiding. When the crowd managed to get into the building Squires was forced to flee and was almost captured by the crowd but finally managed to get into a cab and escape. Fearing an uprising against his government Squires was forced to call an election which resulted in his liberal party on getting 2 of the 28 seats available and him losing his own seat.
A new government was formed by the United Newfoundland Party led by Frederick Alderdice which resulted in his government requesting the creation of a royal commission to study Newfoundland's future.

1933- In November the commission delivers it's conclusions. It recommends that responsible government for Newfoundland be suspended until such a time that the island could support it's self. After much debate, the Newfoundland legislature voted itself out of existence in November and was replaced by a Commission of Government that was appointed by the government of the United Kingdom.

1940- With Britain at war, the governments of the UK and the US signed the destroyers for bases deal. It allowed the United States to build military bases in several British territories, including Newfoundland. American bases were built in St.John's, Argentia, and Stephenville. They also jointly operated bases with the Canadian government at Goose Bay and Gander. This created a massive economic boom for Newfoundland. Bases needed to be built, communication infrastructure improved, the highway between Holyrood and Argentia. This pulled thousands of people out of poverty and increased living conditions on the island dramatically.

1943- The war has had a dramatic effect on Newfoundland. For the first time in decades, Newfoundland has a budget surplus. The amount of revenue made by the government had quadrupled since the beginning of the war and the world economy had now recovered to the point that fish was being sold to other nations again. All involved agreed that the crisis was over and that once the war was finished Newfoundland would be able to choose it's own path once again.

1945- In December, with the war now over the British turned their attention to finally resolving the Newfoundland issue. They announce that a National Convention shall be created to decide Newfoundland's future. Prime Minister Attlee feared that the establishment in St.John's would attempt to dominate the convention so he instructed for members to be elected from the old electoral districts so that all people would be represented.

1946- The national Convention gets underway. Many in the convention support the renewal of self government but a minority led by Joey Smallwood supported confederation with Canada. Through is charismatic speeches and good organization, Smallwood was able to gain the upper hand in the convention and it appeared that the responsible government side had been defeated. This was not the case.

1947- Over the winter break the responsible government side began to organize themselves into a faction which could take on the confederationist's led by Smallwood. In February they finally organized themselves into the Responsible Government League led by Peter Cashin. However a wrench was thrown in their plans when a group within the party split and created the Economic Union Party which called for close relations with the US and a free trade deal and customs union between them and Newfoundland. Unfortunately for them, when the time came to decide where to send delegations their calls for a delegation to Washington were dismissed due to pressure from the Canadian and British governments who feared Canada by blocked in by the US. Delegations were sent to Ottawa and London to negotiate with the respective governments. The trip to Ottawa is a success and an outline for a union between the countries is drawn up. The delegation to London is not a success. The British make it clear that they would not financially support a independent Newfoundland.

1948- The year started off with a vicious debate in the national convention. When it became time to decide the choices that would be on the ballet in the referendum the anti confederation faction sprung into action. They used their majority to block confederation from being on the ballet. Smallwood was outraged, he described his opponents as a bunch of dictators who wished to force a choice on the population. Smallwood went to the Governor and demanded that Confederation be put on the ballet. Fearing that if he refused violence could break out, the Governor declared that Confederation would be a choice on the ballet.

**POD**
Realizing the inevitable, the RGL launched a massive fear campaign against the population. They started saying that if Newfoundland joined Canada, what would stop the Canadian government from backing Quebec's claims to Labrador and taking it from Newfoundland. Next they focused on the fishery. They declared that the Newfoundland fishery should be under Newfoundland's control and said that if they joined Canada Maritime fishermen would come and take THEIR fish. When the referendum came on June 3, The RGL was feeling confident. The results of the Referendum were as follows:

Responsible Government- 46%
Confederation- 40%
Commission- 14%

With no option getting more than 50% of the vote, the third option is dropped and a second referendum will be held with the options of Confederation or Responsible Government. Although campaigning is heavy on both sides and Joey Smallwood's use of the radio gathering support for confederation, on July 22nd the second referendum is held which results in 52.6% voting for Responsible Government. Newfoundland shall once again become independent.
 
Realizing the inevitable, the RGL launched a massive fear campaign against the population. They started saying that if Newfoundland joined Canada, what would stop the Canadian government from backing Quebec's claims to Labrador and taking it from Newfoundland. Next they focused on the fishery. They declared that the Newfoundland fishery should be under Newfoundland's control and said that if they joined Canada Maritime fishermen would come and take THEIR fish. When the referendum came on June 3, The RGL was feeling confident. The results of the Referendum were as follows:

Sniff sniff.

Smells like Brexit!
 
I like what you did here, what with giving (at least in my case was) a much needed history lesson, leading right into your POD. Both well done, and appreciated. Thank you, Sir, for what looks to be the start of a very interesting read.

I knew that unless your someone who is from Newfoundland like me they probably are not going to know the details of the commission of government era. Thankfully for me this time period is actually extremely well documented due to the fact that there is Newfoundland, Canadian, and British sources for what happened. My university also had a bunch of accounts from British newspapers such as the telegraph archived so i was able to read those accounts.

Sniff sniff.

Smells like Brexit!

That is where I got the inspiration for it but when I looked into it the anti confederation camp had these beliefs they just never effectively conveyed them to the population. Basically in this TTL the responsible government side is a bit more media savvy and was able to get the population to share their concerns.
 
Last edited:
Ummm.... So, fearmongering that Canada will give Labrador to Quebec.... When, it's more likely that Canada supports Québec's claim if Newfoundland stays out. Wow. That's a bad move. (Will carefully refrain from current politics for similarly stupid moves.)

-----
Also... the 'oil' in the title. Remember that Hibernia was bloody expensive, and simply isn't remotely economically feasible until about the time is was developed iOTL.

'cod' Newfoundland can't afford a navy or coast guard the size of Canada's (pitiful as that is). I don't think they could afford to stand up to Spain, for instance, the way Canada did. Also - how much of the Banks would Newfoundland (vs Canada) control, even if everyone went to 200 mile limits?
 
Ummm.... So, fearmongering that Canada will give Labrador to Quebec.... When, it's more likely that Canada supports Québec's claim if Newfoundland stays out. Wow. That's a bad move. (Will carefully refrain from current politics for similarly stupid moves.)

-----
Also... the 'oil' in the title. Remember that Hibernia was bloody expensive, and simply isn't remotely economically feasible until about the time is was developed iOTL.

'cod' Newfoundland can't afford a navy or coast guard the size of Canada's (pitiful as that is). I don't think they could afford to stand up to Spain, for instance, the way Canada did. Also - how much of the Banks would Newfoundland (vs Canada) control, even if everyone went to 200 mile limits?

The thing about Labrador is that it was already resolved by this point. The judicial Committee has already sided with Newfoundland over it. This is a case of politicians pointing to something that doesn't exist.

On the oil you are correct. It might take even longer for something like Hibernia to be built in TTL but there was still an oil industry off the coast by the 70s in our TL, it just didn't become a cash cow until more recently.

The thing about the Grand banks is that I can't find any Canadian territorial claim over them until after Newfoundland joined Canada.

The coast guard is something i'm thinking about. Newfoundland will probably be able to have 2-3 cutters. That is not enough to fend off the Spanish or anyone else for that matter.
 
1948(Post Referendum)- Neither the British or Canadians were happy with the result of the referendum. For the British it was because they feared that in another 20 years Newfoundland would be broke again and Britain would need to bail them out. The Canadians feared that Newfoundland would become a American puppet which would mean that Canada would be Surrounded by the United States. Back in Newfoundland the process of becoming independent again had already begun. Talks began on how soon independence could be achieved and if any major changes needed to be made to the Pre Commission constitution. The national convention began it's new role of laying the groundwork for the new nation. Both the RGL and the Economic Union Party wanted the constitution changed so that Britain could not interfere in the internal and external affairs of Newfoundland as will as allowing the constitution to be amended without British interference. This was easily passed through the convention as between the two of them they had a majority. The British agreed to this measure. As far as they were concerned the Newfoundlander's could do what they like once they became independent again.

1949- This was the year that power was finally being transferred to Newfoundland. It was decided that elections for a new parliament would be held in March. Joey Smallwood led the newly formed Liberal Party taking many of the pro confederation members of the national convention with him. The Economic Union Party kept it's name and was lead by Chesley Crosby in the elections. The Conservative Party was formed by the RGL and was lead by it's leader Peter Cashin. The conservative party one the election with 11 seats, the liberals came in second with 10 seats and the EUP in third with 8 seats. The EUP agreed to support the conservatives in parliament as long as they made an effort to create strong ties to the United States. On April 2, 1949 the commission of Government was formerly disbanded at a ceremony in the Colonial Building and Peter Cashing was sworn in with the rest of his cabinet as the first government of the restored Dominion of Newfoundland. In attendance were the new high commissioners to Newfoundland from Britain and Canada along with the first US ambassador to Newfoundland. Three hours later the House of Assembly began it's first new session in 15 years.
 
Thanks a lot. :) I'm currently posting an update as we speak - and I could use some help for the next part, when I get into the '20s and '30s.

If you need any help just let me know. I'd be glad to help If I could. If you have some time I would suggest you read Newfoundland's era of corruption by Jack Fitzgerald. It's a excellent account of responsible government in Newfoundland and why it ultimately failed in the thirties. It also helps with the political parties of Newfoundland.
 
If you need any help just let me know. I'd be glad to help If I could. If you have some time I would suggest you read Newfoundland's era of corruption by Jack Fitzgerald. It's a excellent account of responsible government in Newfoundland and why it ultimately failed in the thirties. It also helps with the political parties of Newfoundland.

Thank you very much :) - it's good to know. I did read a few books on Newfoundland history, which gave me a general overview for an American (albeit one with a fascination bordering on obsession for Canada) like me - one of them was a somewhat touristy one, As Nearer to Heaven by Sea, and the other was a history of Newfoundland from the beginning by Sean Cadigan (a prof at Memorial University, if my mind remembers correctly). However, it's been a while since I read them, so occasionally my memory will have a fault or two.
 
Top