Co-ordinated German/Japanese invasion of the Soviet Union 1941

Hello this is my first thread. I recently discovered this site now my favorite. I'm fascinated by AH especially ww2 and the ancient Greaco/Roman world. So here goes.
What if in 1940/41 the Germans and Japanese decided to co-ordinate an invasion of the Soviet Union. Now with the Germans lets say everything goes the same way as iotl. Barbarossa June 22 1941 same order of battle.
On the Japanese side Hitler secretly informs them of his plan to invade the Soviet Union as soon as he decides to start preparing. Whenever that was I'm not exactly sure on the date So I'm going to say late 1940 early 1941. The Japanese decide it is in their best interest to cooperate with their allies and deal with the "larger threat" to their plans. With the possibility of an embargo from the US the JIN argues in favour of attacking the US and simultaneously seizing Dutch east Indies etc...just like iotl. The army wins the argument in favour of invading the Soviet Union. Stating that entering into a war with the US would be nothing short of suicide, given the obvious industrial capacity. Hitler sends consultants to discuss blitzkreig tactics with Japanese military planners. Preparations are begun in early 1941 with an invasion date set for late summer early fall. Every available unit is moved to Manchuria, the JIN prepares and plans for the assault on Vladivostok the destruction of the Soviet Union's pacific fleet and the coastal support for the army. The plans are to advance as far as lake Baikal to the west, the trans siberian railway to the north and along the coast to the east cutting off Vladivostok. Basically Japan throws everything it can at the Soviet Union.
Other factors:
1. The Japanese are still in China but have stopped advancing in early 1941 (for the time being) and have fortified their positions.
2. Japanese tanks are no match for Soviet tanks.
3. In this scenario Japanese have or quickly gain air superiority.
4. Japanese are not discouraged by their own previous defeats, at the hands of the Soviets in 1938 and 1939, after seeing German success in France and the low countries in 1940.

What are the implications of this scenario?
Does Stalin move his Siberian reserves west?
If the Japanese advance is stalled or stopped by the Soviets is that enough to tie up Reserves bound for Moscow?
Do the Germans succeed with operation Typhoon?
Are the Japanese able to implement blitzkreig tactics? If so how well to what degree?
Do the Japanese succeed in their invasion?

Thoughts?
 
Hello this is my first thread. I recently discovered this site now my favorite. I'm fascinated by AH especially ww2 and the ancient Greaco/Roman world. So here goes.
What if in 1940/41 the Germans and Japanese decided to co-ordinate an invasion of the Soviet Union. Now with the Germans lets say everything goes the same way as iotl. Barbarossa June 22 1941 same order of battle.
On the Japanese side Hitler secretly informs them of his plan to invade the Soviet Union as soon as he decides to start preparing. Whenever that was I'm not exactly sure on the date So I'm going to say late 1940 early 1941. The Japanese decide it is in their best interest to cooperate with their allies and deal with the "larger threat" to their plans. With the possibility of an embargo from the US the JIN argues in favour of attacking the US and simultaneously seizing Dutch east Indies etc...just like iotl. The army wins the argument in favour of invading the Soviet Union. Stating that entering into a war with the US would be nothing short of suicide, given the obvious industrial capacity. Hitler sends consultants to discuss blitzkreig tactics with Japanese military planners. Preparations are begun in early 1941 with an invasion date set for late summer early fall. Every available unit is moved to Manchuria, the JIN prepares and plans for the assault on Vladivostok the destruction of the Soviet Union's pacific fleet and the coastal support for the army. The plans are to advance as far as lake Baikal to the west, the trans siberian railway to the north and along the coast to the east cutting off Vladivostok. Basically Japan throws everything it can at the Soviet Union.
Other factors:
1. The Japanese are still in China but have stopped advancing in early 1941 (for the time being) and have fortified their positions.
2. Japanese tanks are no match for Soviet tanks.
3. In this scenario Japanese have or quickly gain air superiority.
4. Japanese are not discouraged by their own previous defeats, at the hands of the Soviets in 1938 and 1939, after seeing German success in France and the low countries in 1940.

What are the implications of this scenario?
Does Stalin move his Siberian reserves west?
If the Japanese advance is stalled or stopped by the Soviets is that enough to tie up Reserves bound for Moscow?
Do the Germans succeed with operation Typhoon?
Are the Japanese able to implement blitzkreig tactics? If so how well to what degree?
Do the Japanese succeed in their invasion?

Thoughts?

One thing you need to consider is the oil situation. As you correctly pointed out, the US oil embargo was the major factor behind the popularity of the Strike South plan. If the Japanese strike north, and ignore the oil-rich Southern Resource Area, where does the oil come from? Even if the IJN remains in port, and the forces in China stay on the defensive, the IJA thrust north will eat up huge amounts of fuel.

As to the blitzkreig question, the short answer is no. The OTL Singapore campaign showed that, with an emphasis on speed and total air superiority, you can do pretty well. Even with Japan's steel and industrial resources going to the army instead of the navy, though, the Japanese are still going to have fewer and worse tanks than the Soviets. In OTL, they never quite managed to put together enough trucks to supply an offensive away from a rail head. They are also relatively poor in artillery. Japan simply doesn't have the resources in this time period to create the true armored spearhead and combined arms forces needed for true blitzkreig.

As for the other stuff, I am not qualified to say. If the Japanese attack just as the SU is enganged in a life-or-death struggle for the capital, I think they will be able to make impressive gains. However, there is not really anything in Siberia they need. The only possible reason to invade is to help destroy the USSR once and for all, and I am not sure the Germans and Japanese can manage it.
 
Oil, oil, oil...

I really don't see the embargo not happening. Under your set up, the reasons for it are all still there.

Once it kicks in (July 10), Japan has 18 months of oil left, and an increased tempo of a blitz means that oil will go a lot faster. Not going for the southern oil requires another source.

A few odds and ends:
The co-operation would have to start in the summer of '40, when the Germans started making their plans.

Sorge would very likely have found out about the plans. What would happen with that knowledge is really going to depend on the exact plans.

A nasty scenario may have preliminary plans for a Japanese invasion later in the year. Sorge reports Barbarossa's launch as per OTL with the Japanese invasion to follow. Stalin poo-poos it. Sorge gets caught. Barbarossa goes off according to Sorge's prescient report. Meantime the embaro goes through, and Japan decides to jump south. But with no Sorge to report the change of plans, the Soviets are still planning to repel Japan and the Siberian divisions stay in the east. Moscow falls in December and Guderian remains in command.
 
A nasty scenario may have preliminary plans for a Japanese invasion later in the year. Sorge reports Barbarossa's launch as per OTL with the Japanese invasion to follow. Stalin poo-poos it. Sorge gets caught. Barbarossa goes off according to Sorge's prescient report. Meantime the embaro goes through, and Japan decides to jump south. But with no Sorge to report the change of plans, the Soviets are still planning to repel Japan and the Siberian divisions stay in the east. Moscow falls in December and Guderian remains in command.

Siberian divisions came from Siberia, the region east of the Oural not from the Far-East or Kamchatka where until the end of war, Staline kept all the pre-war troops even if they were regulary replaced by new troops in training. So a downgrade in quality, not in quantity.

Japanese light infantry represent not a danger for soviet troops with much more modern and heavy equipments.
 
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Sir Chaos

Banned
If they start cooperating in 1940, Germany could conceivably have given or sold the plans for the Panzer III to the Japanese; that still isn´t equivalent to tanks like the KV-1 or T-34, but it would be a huge step up from what the Japanese actually had at the time.
 
If they start cooperating in 1940, Germany could conceivably have given or sold the plans for the Panzer III to the Japanese; that still isn´t equivalent to tanks like the KV-1 or T-34, but it would be a huge step up from what the Japanese actually had at the time.

The Japanese will need to :

- build factories to mass produce these Japanese Panzer III,
- build in mass these Panzer III,
- adapt the germans panzer tactics to their militaries doctrine,
- train these new armored divisions,

also build only tanks is a bad idea, you need to build the entire equipment sof armored divisions : hundred of wheeled and tracked vehicles for each armored division, and train thousands of men in mechanics and driving.

You need around 6 months to train civilians to drive and use an armored vehicle based on my experience of conscript in a armored cavalry regiment.

And the Japaneses must learn about armored tactics.

The British and the French had the same numbers of tanks as the Germans in May 1940, and some of them were superiors to the best germans models.
 
You need around 6 months to train civilians to drive and use an armored vehicle based on my experience of conscript in a armored cavalry regiment.

Worse than that - I bet you already knew at least the basics of driving a car first, right?

Most Japanese recruits circa WWII did not. It will thus take longer to train them to an equivalent skill level.

Japan's minimal pre-war mechanization was one of their major handicaps in producing operators and mechanics for vehicles, ships, and aircraft.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Short version of this is that the Japanese get their asses kicked by the Red Army's Far East Front since:

1) the IJA never did figure out how to fight a proper modern combined arms battle

AND (much more importantly)​

Richard Sorge has told Stalin exactly Who, What, Where, When, and How the invasion is going to occur.

Having thrown their oil and best troops away on a Fool's Errand the Japanese still make a desperate lunge South to obtain the resources they actually need but with somewhat less success than IOTL.

End resut is the same. Imperial Japan is crushed like a bug by the major industrial powers.
 

Bearcat

Banned
Worse than that - I bet you already knew at least the basics of driving a car first, right?

Most Japanese recruits circa WWII did not. It will thus take longer to train them to an equivalent skill level.

Japan's minimal pre-war mechanization was one of their major handicaps in producing operators and mechanics for vehicles, ships, and aircraft.

I think the lack of kids who had worked on the family cars, to become mechanics, actually might have hurt them worse than just not having the drivers.

The US had a huge advantage there.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
If they start cooperating in 1940, Germany could conceivably have given or sold the plans for the Panzer III to the Japanese; that still isn´t equivalent to tanks like the KV-1 or T-34, but it would be a huge step up from what the Japanese actually had at the time.

The Japanese lacked the industrial capacity, and just as critially, the raw materials, to build a large number of Pz. III while continuing with their naval construction campaign. There is less than no chance of the Navy letting that campaign stop. Since either the Army or Navy could bring a Japanese government down at their whim what the Navy really wanted (like idiotic 70,000 ton battleships) the IJN got.
 
Worse than that - I bet you already knew at least the basics of driving a car first, right?

Most Japanese recruits circa WWII did not. It will thus take longer to train them to an equivalent skill level.

Japan's minimal pre-war mechanization was one of their major handicaps in producing operators and mechanics for vehicles, ships, and aircraft.

I already knew to drive a car and I wasn't an illiterate rice farmer who spent all his life in rural Japan.

In my crew, we have : one cook, one future mechanical engineer (today he worked in car manufacturer), one future shopkeeper, one future financial controller...
 
I think the lack of kids who had worked on the family cars, to become mechanics, actually might have hurt them worse than just not having the drivers.

The US had a huge advantage there.

True, though I don't think there's any "might" about it. It takes more people to maintain a track than it does to run it, but you can get away with the reverse with cars and trucks on the civil side. So putting armored units together from a non-motorized society means your real choke point is going to be mechanics.

I already knew to drive a car and I wasn't an illiterate rice farmer who spent all his life in rural Japan.

In my crew, we have : one cook, one future mechanical engineer (today he worked in car manufacturer), one future shopkeeper, one future financial controller...

Hey, I was right! :)

So it took six months to train your crew, who already knew how to drive a car and probably change the tires, check the oil, etc. Figure, what, nine months or a year to do the same with a crew of people who may never have SEEN a car before they joined the army?
 
Okay the oil is obviously going to be a major problem so lets change this up a bit. The Japanese decide to head south on a smaller scale than iotl and seize the dutch east indies. And few other strategic points to defend it. Avoiding all US possessions/protectorates banking on the fact that US public opinion wants to stay out of all foreign wars (I know this is very similar to another recent thread). Securing a supply of oil for operations against the Soviet Union. It would happen roughly around the same time as the invasion. As stated before the Japanese tanks are lets face it absolutely useless against the Soviet tanks. That said I would assume the Japanese rely heavily on air power as tank busters ( much the same way the allies did in normandy iotl) and as mobile artillery. Does anyone know if the Japanese had planes capable of knocking out a T34 or KV1?
Also good point about mechanics I never even thought about that, sorry guys my smartphone doesn't allow me to copy and paste quotes.
So with this thread now tweeked what happens with the Soviet Union? And even if the Japanese invasion fails does it help the Germans enough by scaring Stalin into not moving reserves from east to west for the time being? Kind of a national "kamikaze" mission to help their German allies achieve victory in the west which would benefit Japan...eventually.
 
What would it have taken to get the US to drop its embargos against Japan? I know the stated reasons regarded their invasion of China. Would it have been possible for Japan to reach a truce with CHina, perhaps even a peace treaty allowing them to annex or puppetize parts of their conquests that would induce the US to lift its embargo---the US being the Saudi Arabia of the 1940s?
 
What would it have taken to get the US to drop its embargos against Japan? I know the stated reasons regarded their invasion of China. Would it have been possible for Japan to reach a truce with CHina, perhaps even a peace treaty allowing them to annex or puppetize parts of their conquests that would induce the US to lift its embargo---the US being the Saudi Arabia of the 1940s?

You'd pretty much need the election of 1940 to go different. A Taft presidency could do the trick.
 
Taft as president would certainly do it, but I'm thinking of FDR still being in power, although perhaps with a less friendly Congress. What's the smallest concession required by the Japanese to most likely get the US to rescind the embargos?
 
Siberian divisions came from Siberia, the region east of the Oural not from the Far-East or Kamchatka where until the end of war, Staline kept all the pre-war troops even if they were regulary replaced by new troops in training. So a downgrade in quality, not in quantity.

Japanese light infantry represent not a danger for soviet troops with much more modern and heavy equipments.

But the Siberian divisions weren't released until Sorge confirmed the Japanese were not going to invade. If such confirmation wasn't forthecoming, they may not have been released until too late.
 
Can Taft even run for president after being appointed Chief Justice of the Supreme Court?

US Constitution said:
No person except a natural born citizen, or a citizen of the United States, at the time of the adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that office who shall not have attained to the age of thirty-five years, and been fourteen years a resident within the United States.

I could swear there was wording in there as well prohibiting holding two offices, but my memory seems to be playing tricks as I can't find it in a quick glance over. I expect he'd have to resign even without an actual proscription, but other than that, the only obstical presented by being Cheif Justice would be electoral - you've got to convince the people to vote you in, and that would likely be difficult if you're the Chief Justice.
 
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