Closer To Shore

1798 French fleet in Egypt anchors just a little bit closer to land than they did in OTL
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Brit Thomas Foley is not able to sail on the landward side of the French
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Nelson does not have lopsided victory in the Battle of the Nile
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Napoleon has much more success in Egypt - at least for some time
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Napoleon stays in Egypt and does not return to France in 1799
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France limps on without good continental leadership and the War of the Second Coalition last a few more years, with more French loss
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Spain's King Charles IV does not sign Louisiana over to the French
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US gets along well enough with Spanish holders so there is no compelling need to put a US flag over New Orleans. Louisiana land stays Spanish.
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>>> Side effect: In 1803 Spain's king decided that smallpox vaccination should be available to Spanish colonies at state expense. This would include Spanish Louisiana
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Pro-British Ferdinand VII becomes king of Spain in 1808 but in TTL it sticks (France is a little weaker).
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Sometime during the Hispanic American wars of independence, say 1813 or so, Louisiana forms an independent pro-American nation.


Please discuss
 
Louisiana pulls a Texas and is annexed, leads to an earlier Spanish American war.

So essentially, this seems to lead to an earlier war of 1812 with Spain involved. But that assumes 1813 is a plausible date for Louisan independence - it may not be. Also, why are they pro-American? Have American settlers been moving to Louisiana and New Orleans, or does the French bent of that city bias them towards the pro-French former colonies?

Do the Americans win? Idk - perhaps if France is their friend. Also perhaps if Bolivar's war comes earlier, in 1813, or if the Louisans revolt with Bolivar in 1819. So tell us - in your scenario, is Spain weak because of other revolts, or for another reason, or is it relatively strong?



edit: first post, hi
 
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Louisiana pulls a Texas and is annexed, leads to an earlier Spanish American war.
Err, what? A nation with very little American settlement, no history of contact with the United States, and next to nothing in common with that nation (except for a recent independence). I'm not sure why the formation of a new nation would make its residents clamor for annexation by United States. It would be akin to Canada begging for annexation by the USA in 1867: out of nowhere and with no sense involved.

But if you can give me some conclusive reasons why this new nation would inevitably succumb to the Unstoppable Manifest Destiny Machine, I could be happy to hear them.
 
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