The 1890's; Japan can't remain closed forever, someone is going to force things by the late 1880's, be that America, Britain or France, and once that happens things will change.
Having said that two things;
1. A Meiji Restoration is not guaranteed and indeed is unlikely with a later date.
2. Change can come without a Revolution (which is what the above amounted to), afterall the Shogunate itself was not stagnant, it'd been supporting light and small industries since 1800 and was capable of quick change if absolutely required.