Vidal
Donor
One thing I've tried to be better about in my scenario writing is digging into close races down the ballot, particularly primaries, that may have gone differently and could have drastically changed events. Here are a few I think about, what are yours?
Democratic primaries
The NY Senate Democratic primary in 1976, where Bella Abzug narrowly lost to Daniel Patrick Moynihan. While Moynihan was a force on some issues, Abzug was clearly more feminist-driven and more progressive than DMP. Her presence in the Senate could have had a massive effect on public sentiment around certain issues. She was also a lawyer and could have made her way onto the Judiciary Committee. Of course, there's plenty of room for butterflies, but it would be interesting to see a Clarence Thomas confirmation hearing with a woman on the panel.
I also think about the 1992 and 1998 Senate primaries. Ferraro came extremely close to winning in 1992, which would've been a major turn had she gone on to defeat D'Amato. In 1998, when she tried again, she was the frontrunner and few thought Schumer had a shot. She wasn't feeling her usual energetic self (later revealed to be cancer) and when combined with the low expectations for Schumer until a month or two out, she was a lazy campaigner and lost by a strong margin. Had she run a more focused campaign in the vain of her 1992 race, Schumer may have lost.
And the NYC Mayoral primary in 1977, where Cuomo lost to Ed Koch by 10,000 votes. Had he won that race, his career trajectory would likely have changed significantly. Winning statewide in the race for governor may have become more difficult. It would also have had broad changes on NYC - Koch was to Cuomo's right and his administration coincided with a time of great change within the City.
General elections
George W. Bush ran for Congress in 1978. He lost by about 6,500 votes, or ~5%. There were some forced errors that Bush made that could have cost him the race, perhaps most noticeably the "Bush Bash." If he comes up with enough votes to win, the seat is likely his for as long as he wants it. The district was trending red already and a good Republican year in 1980 would probably have been enough for him as an incumbent, even if it wasn't enough for a challenger. The effects on his father's political career as well as his own are intriguing. There are three possibilities: 1) He gets bored of Washington after a couple of terms and leaves politics for good; 2) He enters the House with Dick Cheney and the two go on to work their way up through House leadership with Cheney becoming Speaker and Bush as his right-hand man; 3) He runs for the Senate in 1984, beating Gramm in the primary, and then serving in the Senate. And, of course, each broad scenario carries a number of butterflies with them.
A similar scenario involves Bill Clinton, who ran and barely lost in 1974. This may have been a blessing for him as he went on to become AG in the next election, then governor, and then president. It seems likely to me that had Clinton won, he would have challenged Pryor for the Senate nomination in 1978, as some in the state party wanted him to do. He states in My Life he ran for governor instead because he'd developed a preference for state politics (which may not have happened had he been in Washington). It's definitely possible he would've been able to eek out a victory over Pryor, who was to Clinton's left, and gone on to win. Who knows how this would've affected his presidential ambitions. It may have made him more formidable in 1988, inspiring him to enter the race.
Democratic primaries
The NY Senate Democratic primary in 1976, where Bella Abzug narrowly lost to Daniel Patrick Moynihan. While Moynihan was a force on some issues, Abzug was clearly more feminist-driven and more progressive than DMP. Her presence in the Senate could have had a massive effect on public sentiment around certain issues. She was also a lawyer and could have made her way onto the Judiciary Committee. Of course, there's plenty of room for butterflies, but it would be interesting to see a Clarence Thomas confirmation hearing with a woman on the panel.
I also think about the 1992 and 1998 Senate primaries. Ferraro came extremely close to winning in 1992, which would've been a major turn had she gone on to defeat D'Amato. In 1998, when she tried again, she was the frontrunner and few thought Schumer had a shot. She wasn't feeling her usual energetic self (later revealed to be cancer) and when combined with the low expectations for Schumer until a month or two out, she was a lazy campaigner and lost by a strong margin. Had she run a more focused campaign in the vain of her 1992 race, Schumer may have lost.
And the NYC Mayoral primary in 1977, where Cuomo lost to Ed Koch by 10,000 votes. Had he won that race, his career trajectory would likely have changed significantly. Winning statewide in the race for governor may have become more difficult. It would also have had broad changes on NYC - Koch was to Cuomo's right and his administration coincided with a time of great change within the City.
General elections
George W. Bush ran for Congress in 1978. He lost by about 6,500 votes, or ~5%. There were some forced errors that Bush made that could have cost him the race, perhaps most noticeably the "Bush Bash." If he comes up with enough votes to win, the seat is likely his for as long as he wants it. The district was trending red already and a good Republican year in 1980 would probably have been enough for him as an incumbent, even if it wasn't enough for a challenger. The effects on his father's political career as well as his own are intriguing. There are three possibilities: 1) He gets bored of Washington after a couple of terms and leaves politics for good; 2) He enters the House with Dick Cheney and the two go on to work their way up through House leadership with Cheney becoming Speaker and Bush as his right-hand man; 3) He runs for the Senate in 1984, beating Gramm in the primary, and then serving in the Senate. And, of course, each broad scenario carries a number of butterflies with them.
A similar scenario involves Bill Clinton, who ran and barely lost in 1974. This may have been a blessing for him as he went on to become AG in the next election, then governor, and then president. It seems likely to me that had Clinton won, he would have challenged Pryor for the Senate nomination in 1978, as some in the state party wanted him to do. He states in My Life he ran for governor instead because he'd developed a preference for state politics (which may not have happened had he been in Washington). It's definitely possible he would've been able to eek out a victory over Pryor, who was to Clinton's left, and gone on to win. Who knows how this would've affected his presidential ambitions. It may have made him more formidable in 1988, inspiring him to enter the race.
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