Clinton vs Powell

Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy · May 6, 2006

WI the Republicans picked Colin Powell for their presidential candidate in '96? Who would he take as his running mate (someone a lot more conservative, I assume), and what would it take for him to win (probably an earlier Lewinsky Affair)?

Arachnid · May 6, 2006

He wouldn't have run in '96 he had only just left the Army and wouldn't have a powerbase in the GOP, though he might have run as someones vice as a max in 2000, in '96 he was still writing his autobiography and hadn't really gotten into politics.

Glen · May 6, 2006

VoCSe said:
WI the Republicans picked Colin Powell for their presidential candidate in '96?

Ah, you skipped the hard part....getting him as the Republican candidate in the general election.

Who would he take as his running mate (someone a lot more conservative, I assume),

Trent Lott?

Probably not, he was too important at that time in the Senate.

and what would it take for him to win (probably an earlier Lewinsky Affair)?

Nothing. IMO, he would have won against Clinton in '96.

Glen · May 6, 2006

Aracnid said:
He wouldn't have run in '96 he had only just left the Army

Actually, he did put out tentative moves towards a run, IMO. I don't think his wife wanted him to run, though, and he would have really had to fight hard through the primaries.

and wouldn't have a powerbase in the GOP,

But had a lot of popularity within the party. He could have built one quickly. Just not certain that it would have been powerful enough to get through the primaries.

though he might have run as someones vice as a max in 2000, in '96 he was still writing his autobiography and hadn't really gotten into politics.

I think if someone had seriously gone after him for veep in '96 he would have done it.

Arachnid · May 6, 2006

Oh sure, he could have run as a vice in '96, Ijust meant that he wouldn't be running for President until 2000 at the earliest.

rowmaster · May 6, 2006

Of course this could happen in '08 just with a different Clinton

Fenwick · May 6, 2006

Powell repeatedly said he never planned to run for President. One, at least according to his wife, because he does not wish to be the first black President. He seems to think said person will be shot first chance.

Derek Jackson · May 6, 2006

Fenwick said:
Powell repeatedly said he never planned to run for President. One, at least according to his wife, because he does not wish to be the first black President. He seems to think said person will be shot first chance.

Had he run with a strongly Conservative VP candidate then there would have been a greater risk of a crazy taking a shot at him.

Evil Opus · May 6, 2006

Clinton was terrified of Powell, as public opinion polls showed a Powell victory against him. If Colin Powell is elected in '96, most likely an earlier form of the War on Terror starts with the embassy bombings in 1997. Afgahnistan is invaded in 1997, and US troops leave in 2000. I doubt President Powell would have run for reelection, leaving the field to Republican John McCain and Democrat John Kerry. McCain wins, there is no 9/11, but when Iraq starts to get serious about WMD's in 2003, President McCain imposes sanctions on them. Iran starts getting WMD's in 2006, and President McCain imposes sanctions on them as well.

Fabilius · May 6, 2006

Evil Opus said:
Clinton was terrified of Powell, as public opinion polls showed a Powell victory against him. If Colin Powell is elected in '96, most likely an earlier form of the War on Terror starts with the embassy bombings in 1997. Afgahnistan is invaded in 1997, and US troops leave in 2000. I doubt President Powell would have run for reelection, leaving the field to Republican John McCain and Democrat John Kerry. McCain wins, there is no 9/11, but when Iraq starts to get serious about WMD's in 2003, President McCain imposes sanctions on them. Iran starts getting WMD's in 2006, and President McCain imposes sanctions on them as well.

You think, Powell would´ve picked the same strategies as Bush had he been the nr.1 honcho?

Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy · May 7, 2006

Evil Opus said:
Iraq starts to get serious about WMD's in 2003

Why exactly? I'm not going to argue Iran, though I disagree with that one as well, but why would they do something they clearly didn't do in OTL?

Anaxagoras · May 7, 2006

Although much discussed, a Powell run for the presidency is highly unlikely, for the very simple fact that he could never win the Republican nomination. Socially, he is a solid moderate (and, according to some, may be a bit left-of-center). He favors affirmative action and is considered "soft" on abortion.

Besides which, truth be told, a big chunk of the white Southern Republicans would simply not vote for him. They would SAY that it was because of his social views, but we would all know the real reason.

Aldroud · May 7, 2006

Besides which, truth be told, a big chunk of the white Southern Republicans would simply not vote for him. They would SAY that it was because of his social views, but we would all know the real reason.

Ah horseshit! Speaking as a very conservative deep-south republican (Montgomery, Alabama Representin'!

, I can say I've never heard ANYONE say anything bad against C.P. Hell, everyone I know wished he had run for office against Clinton.

Guess it's just another example of liberal racisism, assuming everyone from the south is a Klansman. Hmm, and which party has an openly avowed Klansman in Congress today?

HueyLong · May 7, 2006

I live in Indiana. The majority of the people here are Republicans, and many of those hate the excuse me, their terms, spics and niggers. Not all of them, but a large chunk seriously dislike anyone who is not white.

Its worse in the urban areas here.

A black candidate is not likely to win, as both sides contain a large number of racists.

Heart of Darkness · May 7, 2006

A black canidate could win, if one of the other parties put up a horrible nominee, or some wierd situation developed where both parties ran black canidates. But by 'horrble nominee', I mean someone who got the nomination and then something horrible was later discovered about him, and the other party had thrown up a token black 'knowing' that he / she didn't have a chance. Or perhaps the favorite canidate could die during the campaign, and people not really want to vote for his vp.

Tgibbs · May 7, 2006

I'm a lifelong Southerner, and I firmly believe many conservative white Southerners (not ALL, but many) could not walk into a voting booth and pull the lever for Colin Powell. For some, it would be his moderate (even liberal) stands on some issues, like abortion. And if you are a pro-life conservative, that's a legitimate reason not to vote for him.

For others, it would be because he's black. I hate saying it, but I've spent 30-plus years living in the South, and I've been listening to white Southerners all my life. The South has made many strides in the last 40 years -- but not everyone is free of racism. Some wouldn't vote for him. Not all. But some.

Because of that, I doubt Powell wins the Republican nomination in 1996. The Republican powers-that-be treat him the same way they treated McCain in 2000. Plus, Powell was enormously popular in late '95, when no one knew where he stood on any of the issues. His candidacy would have peaked the day he announced. After that, as he described his views, his Republican support would evaporate.

If Powell did win the nomination, it's not a certainty to me that he beats Clinton. If a pro-choice Republican ever won the nomination, you can be sure that a pro-life third-party candidate would emerge. (Buchanan?) Many Christian conservatives would then support that third-party candidate. I've had conservative friends tell me they could never vote for a pro-choice Republican.

History tells us that when an incumbent runs for reelection during a time of peace and prosperity, that incumbent wins. It has nothing to do with Clinton. People just have a "don't rock the boat" philosophy when the economy is strong, as it was in 1996.

Powell vs. the GOP field in 1996? Powell probably loses.
Powell vs. Clinton in the fall? Slight edge to Clinton.

Derek Jackson · May 8, 2006

Racism is a problem in the US and the UK. Clearly some people would not vote for Powell for that reason. If Powell got the nomination Conservative Republicans would have the choice of a moderate Republican or Clinton (who they hate to an irrational degree)

Maybe this would have helped big ears running as a third party candidate.

On the issue of racism I heard it alleged that during Jesse Jackson's Primary campaign that he got votes from significant numbers of people who would be appalled if he moved in next door.

Max Sinister · May 8, 2006

And WI he starts as an independent candidate?

AMBOMB · May 9, 2006

Slower economic growth from third quarter '94 through third quarter '96 would've been needed for Powell to win.