Clinton the Carter

Without getting Colin Powell involved, what's the latest POD for Bill Clinton to lose the 1996 presidential election and what Republicans are the most likely to defeat him?
 
He doesn't tack to the center after 1994. Gingrich wins the shutdown: recently a White House aide said Clinton was on the point of caving when the GOP folded early. Gingrich doesn't throw the AF1 hissy fit, and keeps Dole on his side. Even better, have Hillarycare be voted on in the fall of 1994 and go down hard, with a very public split within the Democratic Party. GOP makes even more gains on Nov. 8. You can have Clinton veto welfare reform if you don't want Hillarycare brought to a vote. Have Lamar Alexander or Phill Gramm nominated. That's the best way to defeat Clinton: it wouldn't be a landslide defeat but at least a 30% chance of defeating him.
 
BW wrote a timeline where he has a lovechild with Monica.

Even if Clinton didn't tack to the center he probably would have won otherwise because of the economy. Of course, Clinton would tack to the center because he wasn't a liberal. He had no ideology, he's "an appetite in a suit"
 
the monica's baby time line not withstanding

Clinton didn't get 50 percent in 1996

maybe no perot, combined with a healthy Pete Wilson could give him a run for his money
 
the monica's baby time line not withstanding

Clinton didn't get 50 percent in 1996

maybe no perot, combined with a healthy Pete Wilson could give him a run for his money

Perot drew equally from both. The reason Clinton didn't hit 50 in '96, at least according to him, was because too many Dem base voters became complacent and GOTV slacked off.
 
Perot drew equally from both. The reason Clinton didn't hit 50 in '96, at least according to him, was because too many Dem base voters became complacent and GOTV slacked off.

Pete Wilson was probably the most dynamic and electable republican in the field that year (if he was healthy) I could see him possibly winning the electoral college and losing the popular vote (since he could carry california; in 96 the republicans only had a 1 cycle losing streak in the state)
 
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