Clinton does Iraq

HueyLong

Banned
Based on the "Gore wins" scenarios where there is still an Iraq War.....

WI there is an intervention in Iraq with the intent of removing Saddam from power and engaging in "nation building", as Bush once put it? Lets say, '97.

How do the '98 midterm elections look? How does the Republican Party respond to a war in Iraq? How does the public respond to a war that descends on a somewhat similar scale to OTL's later war?

And, most importantly, as this is America, what do the 2000 elections look like?
 
If Clinton sucks on Iraq like Bush 43: Bush will surely kick the crap out of Al Gore in 2000, using a "Leave Iraq" slogan.

If Clinton Manages Iraq very well and we are successful: Al Gore becomes the 43rd U.S. President.
 

HueyLong

Banned
Lets say no dissolution of the Iraqi Army. Huge change from what Bush did, slightly better war.

In any case, I don't think its assured Bush gets the nomination. He may get tied down with the fact that his father "didn't finish the job" (much as Republicans say Clinton "didn't finish the job" on al-Qaeda)

A "Leave Iraq" slant from the Republican Party just isn't possible, I don't think. They lack the ability to get a popular anti-war movement up. I imagine it would be somewhat like McCain's stance on Bush- badly done, but we need to stay.

Also, a wartime spirit may help McCain. Gore is certainly the nominee for the Democrats, but Bush is not certain for the Republicans.
 

HueyLong

Banned
Gore might choose someone other than Lieberman.... not sure if Clark could be in the running, but he would need some more military credentials on the ticket, I think to oppose McCain (Then again, Bush beat Kerry)

I would expect a primary upset as well, against Gore. Not enough to beat him, but enough for anti-war Democrats to get a talking point. I'd imagine depressed Democratic turnout for Gore/Whoever, and McCain's personality trumps that of Bush. He probably wins it, a rarity in wartime.
 
Okay, well I think you're missing out on one big potential issue: the impeachment. If the war occurs in 1997, then you could well obscure the investigation (at the very least, the "I did not have sex with that woman" remark may be butterflied since it occured at a January 1998 press conference). However, Clinton will be open to even larger charges in the media of attempting to "wag the dog" since the war and the release of Ken Starr's report (which prompted the House Judiciary committee to investigate impeachable offenses) occur in 1997 as well.

There's no guarantee that impeachement proceedings go forward if a war is really going on. However, there's no guarantee they're stopped. Either way, it's a very tense situation. Very possibly, the impeachment is avoided.

The 1998 mid-terms are a big question. OTL saw the unusual slight win for the Democrats. If they do the same in the midst of a war, then they are either riding high or are internally riven between pro and anti-war factions, the latter being much more likely. Accordingly, Gore loosing the primaries to an anti-war candidate may be likely.

On the Republican side, I'd imagine McCain gets a boost, but a lot depends on something going different in the early months of the campaign. OTL a lot of Republican heavy hitters began siding with Bush since it was pretty obvious he was running. Not impeaching Clinton (or whatever the outcome of the investigation) could therefore have substantial effects either by increasing the disunity in the Republicans or by making them even "hungrier." I kind of like the later option: the GOP stalwarts are more aggressive earlier, leading to harsher ads earlier, which ironically might give McCain enough time to respond effectively to them. If the timing works out for the primary, he might well gain a latent boost. And then of course given the increased import of military credentials, it might be more likely that the press discovers Bush's lack of attendance when in the AL Nat'l Guard. A very close election, by McCain might win. If he does, I think Colin Powell might be a fairly savvy VP pick; though that's a tough sell to the GOP (particularly if they are more strident in calling for a conservative agenda; they might force a firebrand on McCain).

If McCain is the GOP nominee, he wins the general election, easy.
 
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