In terms of PODs, this timeline could probably be said to have a couple, but then in real life events and shocking occurrences rarely actually depend the one upon the other to happen. This is something of the 'coin-toss' approach to alternate history - why should it be set up as one POD only and then some sort of intellectual challenge thereon ? I am not trying to write a thesis or create an argument for some historical purpose, I am trying to tell a different story. The story of OTL is full of unlikely events and unrealised changes, things which begun and full of promise just wither on the vine, and conversely things which seem to have no promise at all but survive and prosper. This timeline takes events that could, in their individual cases, have come to pass, and weaves perhaps three strands together to make an ongoing narrative. One could perhaps argue as to whether there are three, or two, PODs but such an argument would be unnecessary, given that it matters not at all owing to the way this is set up. This timeline does not require every event to be founded on the one POD - why should it ?
(1) The Empire of Mexico
I remember reading of a battle that was decisive in the early movement against Agustin I, and which saw both Guadeloupe Victoria and Santa Anna only just escape with their lives from pursuit. It has often struck me that this would be an excellent POD.
In itself, it is not important whether the above is the POD here or not. The timeline is concerned more with the survival of Agustin I's empire, than with the hows and wherefores of the survival. It wishes to look at consequences and to throw wrenches into the great power-plays of decades to come. The reader can decide that the above POD is sufficient, or can decide to accept that something of equal effect has come to pass
The essential fact is that Agustin I Iturbide's empire survives its troubled first few years and settles down into a longer-term stability.
(2) The Texas War (The First Mexican War)
President Andrew Jackson's USA gets involved in the Mexican attempt to subdue the Texan secessionists
The war is a difficult affair and the result of the war is inconclusive
Texas becomes an autonomous borderland, with its autonomy guaranteed by the USA
As a note, in the wake of the war, Iturbide reasserts his imperial power by putting down the Yucatan rebellion
(3) Poor Queen Vic
In this timeline, Queen Victoria dies not long after ascending the throne from complications with her first pregnancy. She has thus produced no heir, and her widower returns to Coburg as did his sad counterpart twenty years before, Leopold widower of the much-loved Charlotte
Ernest Augustus, Duke of Cumberland, and King of Hannover since the death of William IV, now becomes King Ernest I of Great Britain and Ireland, much unloved, often despised, and frequently hated, but no one can claim he had anything to do with the death of Victoria, a frequent suspicion when she fell ill before her accession as he would have been the beneficiary. This time, though, he was in Hannover, and she died due to natural causes, a sad loss, but one placing the male-to-male descendant of George I upon the British throne
The years of his rule will not be easy ones, will be characterised by strife, civil unrest and frequent crises, but the country will bumble along and vested interests will always collude to prevent the situation from getting out of hand
(4) 1848
This timeline's 1848 sees a host of changes echo into effect
-a- Chartist Revolution in England
-b- Successful independence for Kossuth's Hungary
-c- Lasting independence for republics of Rome (Mazzini), Sicily, Milan and Venice
-d- A liberal Imperial Germany including Austria
-e- A longer-lasting French Second Republic
-f- The USA takes advantage of the situation to push "54 40 or war"
-g- Russia makes moves against the Ottomans
---a. With Queen Victoria having sadly died of complications during her first pregnancy, Ernest Augustus, King of Hannover and Duke of Cumberland, became King Ernest I. Ever unpopular, things came to a head in 1848 with a Chartist Revolution which saw his abdication, followed swiftly by that of his as-yet-childless (in the ATL) son, the Blind King George V.
The throne was taken by the aged Adolphus, Duke of Cambridge who was little more than a cypher for the revolutionaries as King Adolphus I.
Upon his death in 1850, his son ascends as King George VI
A much more robust and argumentative man, he rules more or less in opposition to parliament, but the reign of his father has served to cool tensions, and constant compromises are worked out to allow the machinery of government to work
---d. Germany 1848 - elected Emperor
Austria subsumed within Germany
- Franz Josef a young fellow never makes it as a ne effective ruler; gone with a whimper not a bang
Imperial Liberal Germany folds inwards in later years
- needs centralism etc to hold onto unity
- becomes less democratic as the centre needs to overawe the extremities
---f. With Britain in internal chaos, the USA pushes its 54 40 agenda and achieves its maximum aims
Note that this is a USA which has not recently fought Mexico and which therefore does not include California, New Mexico or Texas
I would imagine that the USA also sponsors an independent Canada as this is its best guarantee, and Britain is in no position to do anything about this
An independent Canada at this stage would consist of Upper and Lower Canada plus Quebec, with everything further West being territories with small populations and little representation. Thus the loss of the Pacific coast would be felt less back in Ottawa than it would have been in London
---g. Russia - They take advantage of European chaos to attack the Ottoman Empire
- recognition of Hungary swapped for acceptance of Russia's paramount position in the Principalities
Russia - Principalities is only step one
(5) The 1850s
The later war (early 1850s) with Mexico grows out of chaos in California after the gold strike, and with Mexico's attempts to control the situation bringing the empire into conflict with the ever-increasing US settler community, and eventually with the USA as their sponsor
The USA obviously does well in this war, but not overwhelmingly so as Mexico is a lot stronger than historically. The result is that Texas is officially independent and California divided in some way, with a portion of the South remaining Mexican and the rest annexed by the USA. The empire also retains the New Mexico lands; Texas probably is only to the Nueces
The US Civil war comes at the end of the 1850s
- the tensions have never been properly sorted out and even the 1850 Compromise of OTL doesn't exist here
- tensions from the end of the 2nd Mexican War, and California's inclusion in the Union add to the fire
- the vast Oregon Territory is as much a headache and a monetary gain as a victory over the UK
- the presidential elections bring a crisis to a head
Texas backs the CSA
Mexico however is friendly to the Union but uses US distraction to get involved in a war with Spain and ends up annexing Cuba
At the same time, Britain starts off friendly to the Union as the liberal majority over-rules a less-than-liberal king
In Europe, there is revolution in Paris as Louis Philippe's grandson is restored to the throne, the republic having staggered from one crisis to another
Britain's increasing involvement in the ACW comes partly as a response to French distraction, and partly causes increased instability in Europe as neither great power is now in a position to intervene in events
This most noticeably has serious consequences in Italy, where only great power intervention has held the post-1848 status quo together in a ramshackle league
Meanwhile, Spain's defeat to Mexico has led to the overthrow of Isabella II
The restored Orleanist king of France, Philippe VII, makes a powerplay to stabilise his position and gain instant kudos, calling for French 'compensation' for the 'New Germany' and seeking to purchase Luxembourg off the King of the Netherlands
This leads to rising Franco-German tensions
Italy exacerbates this, seeing a Murat-republican revolution in Naples (Sicily has been independent since 1848) and a similar event in Tuscany
- Note 1 -
Agustin I of Mexico
born 1783
He could well live until the end of the 2nd Mexican War which might serve to exhaust him and bring about his death c 1855, aged 72
His eldest son Agustin Jeronimo, b 1807, would succeed him
OTL he didn't have any children, but as Prince Imperial to a reigning monarch there is every chance he married and had heirs
OTL he died in 1866, which might be different in the ATL, but serves well enough to move the story on
If he followed in family tradition, and there is little reason to doubt he would, then he has a son now Agustin III who was born in say 1830
- Note 2 -
Louis Philippe of France, overthrown 1848 dies in exile in 1850
His eldest grandson (Louis) Philippe was born in 1838 and only really becomes a player on the international scene in the mid-late 1850s with the constant failure of the Second Republic. Coming of age at the right time he is able to benefit from widespread disillusion with the Republic and a restoration occurs at a time when Britain is increasingly distracted by events in the Americas (the US Civil War and the outbreak of the Mexican-Spanish War)
Taking the throne as Philippe VII, he married in 1864 his first cousin Marie Isabelle of Orleans, daughter of the Duc de Montpensier (brother of his late father)
(6) The 1860s
At the start of 1860s King George VII is finally convinced by parliament to allow them to declare war on the Confederacy, and Britain's entry on the Union side is one of the things which helps to finish off the war, albeit in the intermediate term
Britain and Mexico thus end up entering the ACW on the side of the Union
The restored French monarchy is backing the Kingdom of Sardinia in the North, against the republican forces elsewhere
Union victory in the US Civil War
- agreement with Britain and Mexico as their allies
- sees US recognition of Mexico's annexation of Cuba
- and Britain and Mexico agree to the USA's annexation of Texas (to the Nueces)
- plus the USA give a guarantee to the Mexican Empire on their mutual borders
Second Italian War
- The 'Murat' republican forces from the South swallow up the moribund Roman Republic and the infant republic in Florence and unite South-Central Italy in one republic
- But in the North, French-sponsored Sardinia forms a rival "Italy" annexing by popular acclaim Milan, Venice and the duchies
- Germany becomes involved on its Southern border
A Franco-German war is negotiated away with British intervention
After negotiation, Italy is divided between Sardinia in the North and the Republic in the South, with the Republic of Sicily outside this arrangement
Franco-German hostility
- one could imagine France acquiring de jure rights to Luxembourg and a long campaign to get Germany to agree to withdraw its last troops, with much difficulties in between
- Germany upgrades defences in the South, including one assumes in Carniola, Istria, Trieste which would all be German
- Germany may well ally with Murat's republic of the South
British Neutrality Patrol in the Mediterranean
- partly aimed at respecting Sicily's independence, so that the revolution is not exported from the mainland
- partly aimed at preventing either of the main Italian sides from gaining an advantage on the other
One could imagine that the moribund French Second Republic failed to subdue Abdul Kader in Algieria and that a de facto split of the country between himself and France came to pass.
Britain would presumably act with its naval forces to try to prevent the restored Orleans monarchy from changing this
End of Carlist Wars
- French support Carlists over liberals
- force a compromise, liberal Carlist son
Egypt
- Suez Canal is a French/Republican project
- Completed by the restored monarchy
Ottomans pleased
- no insult from Egypt
- Compromise on Egyptian ironclads : especially with regard to Russian machinations in "Compromise" Bulgaria
This latter has come about after Russian pressure on the Ottomans during the period of complete distraction of the other European powers
As the Compromise in Italy breaks down at the end of the 1860s and Europe heads towards war, Russia puts increased pressure on the Ottomans over Bulgaria (hence an Ottoman willingness to compromise with Egypt at this time)
(7) The 1870s
Britain and Germany oppose Russia on 'liberal' grounds
- leads to Bulgarian Crisis
had been in abeyance, now see no ends to it, full scale revolt
With Germany distracted by war on its Eastern border, France pushes things in Italy where all pretence at an intermediate solution has been abandoned and where Sardinia and the Republic are fighting a series of undeclared wars in the duchies and Northern Tuscany
The British Neutrality Patrol has moved to the Aegean with war blossoming in the East
1872-74 War
- Britain, Germany and the Ottomans versus Russia
- Strains lead to India Crisis; there had been no Mutiny in this ATL, but the strains of war with Russia lead to a blow-up in Anglo-Indian relations and a serious problem for Britain just as it starts military action against Russia in concert with Germany
Germany signs a secret non-aggression pact with France, including guarantees for Istria, Trieste and Carniola
This frees France to pursue its ambitions in Italy, helping Sardinia to defeat the republic, take Rome where the Pope's temporal powers are resumed, albeit on a power-sharing basis with the Savoyards, and push on into Naples
British naval presence, albeit reduced, discourages any attempt to cross the Straits of Messina and thus the Republic of Sicily survives
France and Sardinia engage in drawn-out guerilla warfare against Murat-republican forces in Naples
1874 Peace
- readjustment of the Polish border
- Hungary swallows vassal Croatia-Slavonia as no one looking
- Bulgaria emerges as autonomous
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
(1) The Empire of Mexico
I remember reading of a battle that was decisive in the early movement against Agustin I, and which saw both Guadeloupe Victoria and Santa Anna only just escape with their lives from pursuit. It has often struck me that this would be an excellent POD.
In itself, it is not important whether the above is the POD here or not. The timeline is concerned more with the survival of Agustin I's empire, than with the hows and wherefores of the survival. It wishes to look at consequences and to throw wrenches into the great power-plays of decades to come. The reader can decide that the above POD is sufficient, or can decide to accept that something of equal effect has come to pass
The essential fact is that Agustin I Iturbide's empire survives its troubled first few years and settles down into a longer-term stability.
(2) The Texas War (The First Mexican War)
President Andrew Jackson's USA gets involved in the Mexican attempt to subdue the Texan secessionists
The war is a difficult affair and the result of the war is inconclusive
Texas becomes an autonomous borderland, with its autonomy guaranteed by the USA
As a note, in the wake of the war, Iturbide reasserts his imperial power by putting down the Yucatan rebellion
(3) Poor Queen Vic
In this timeline, Queen Victoria dies not long after ascending the throne from complications with her first pregnancy. She has thus produced no heir, and her widower returns to Coburg as did his sad counterpart twenty years before, Leopold widower of the much-loved Charlotte
Ernest Augustus, Duke of Cumberland, and King of Hannover since the death of William IV, now becomes King Ernest I of Great Britain and Ireland, much unloved, often despised, and frequently hated, but no one can claim he had anything to do with the death of Victoria, a frequent suspicion when she fell ill before her accession as he would have been the beneficiary. This time, though, he was in Hannover, and she died due to natural causes, a sad loss, but one placing the male-to-male descendant of George I upon the British throne
The years of his rule will not be easy ones, will be characterised by strife, civil unrest and frequent crises, but the country will bumble along and vested interests will always collude to prevent the situation from getting out of hand
(4) 1848
This timeline's 1848 sees a host of changes echo into effect
-a- Chartist Revolution in England
-b- Successful independence for Kossuth's Hungary
-c- Lasting independence for republics of Rome (Mazzini), Sicily, Milan and Venice
-d- A liberal Imperial Germany including Austria
-e- A longer-lasting French Second Republic
-f- The USA takes advantage of the situation to push "54 40 or war"
-g- Russia makes moves against the Ottomans
---a. With Queen Victoria having sadly died of complications during her first pregnancy, Ernest Augustus, King of Hannover and Duke of Cumberland, became King Ernest I. Ever unpopular, things came to a head in 1848 with a Chartist Revolution which saw his abdication, followed swiftly by that of his as-yet-childless (in the ATL) son, the Blind King George V.
The throne was taken by the aged Adolphus, Duke of Cambridge who was little more than a cypher for the revolutionaries as King Adolphus I.
Upon his death in 1850, his son ascends as King George VI
A much more robust and argumentative man, he rules more or less in opposition to parliament, but the reign of his father has served to cool tensions, and constant compromises are worked out to allow the machinery of government to work
---d. Germany 1848 - elected Emperor
Austria subsumed within Germany
- Franz Josef a young fellow never makes it as a ne effective ruler; gone with a whimper not a bang
Imperial Liberal Germany folds inwards in later years
- needs centralism etc to hold onto unity
- becomes less democratic as the centre needs to overawe the extremities
---f. With Britain in internal chaos, the USA pushes its 54 40 agenda and achieves its maximum aims
Note that this is a USA which has not recently fought Mexico and which therefore does not include California, New Mexico or Texas
I would imagine that the USA also sponsors an independent Canada as this is its best guarantee, and Britain is in no position to do anything about this
An independent Canada at this stage would consist of Upper and Lower Canada plus Quebec, with everything further West being territories with small populations and little representation. Thus the loss of the Pacific coast would be felt less back in Ottawa than it would have been in London
---g. Russia - They take advantage of European chaos to attack the Ottoman Empire
- recognition of Hungary swapped for acceptance of Russia's paramount position in the Principalities
Russia - Principalities is only step one
(5) The 1850s
The later war (early 1850s) with Mexico grows out of chaos in California after the gold strike, and with Mexico's attempts to control the situation bringing the empire into conflict with the ever-increasing US settler community, and eventually with the USA as their sponsor
The USA obviously does well in this war, but not overwhelmingly so as Mexico is a lot stronger than historically. The result is that Texas is officially independent and California divided in some way, with a portion of the South remaining Mexican and the rest annexed by the USA. The empire also retains the New Mexico lands; Texas probably is only to the Nueces
The US Civil war comes at the end of the 1850s
- the tensions have never been properly sorted out and even the 1850 Compromise of OTL doesn't exist here
- tensions from the end of the 2nd Mexican War, and California's inclusion in the Union add to the fire
- the vast Oregon Territory is as much a headache and a monetary gain as a victory over the UK
- the presidential elections bring a crisis to a head
Texas backs the CSA
Mexico however is friendly to the Union but uses US distraction to get involved in a war with Spain and ends up annexing Cuba
At the same time, Britain starts off friendly to the Union as the liberal majority over-rules a less-than-liberal king
In Europe, there is revolution in Paris as Louis Philippe's grandson is restored to the throne, the republic having staggered from one crisis to another
Britain's increasing involvement in the ACW comes partly as a response to French distraction, and partly causes increased instability in Europe as neither great power is now in a position to intervene in events
This most noticeably has serious consequences in Italy, where only great power intervention has held the post-1848 status quo together in a ramshackle league
Meanwhile, Spain's defeat to Mexico has led to the overthrow of Isabella II
The restored Orleanist king of France, Philippe VII, makes a powerplay to stabilise his position and gain instant kudos, calling for French 'compensation' for the 'New Germany' and seeking to purchase Luxembourg off the King of the Netherlands
This leads to rising Franco-German tensions
Italy exacerbates this, seeing a Murat-republican revolution in Naples (Sicily has been independent since 1848) and a similar event in Tuscany
- Note 1 -
Agustin I of Mexico
born 1783
He could well live until the end of the 2nd Mexican War which might serve to exhaust him and bring about his death c 1855, aged 72
His eldest son Agustin Jeronimo, b 1807, would succeed him
OTL he didn't have any children, but as Prince Imperial to a reigning monarch there is every chance he married and had heirs
OTL he died in 1866, which might be different in the ATL, but serves well enough to move the story on
If he followed in family tradition, and there is little reason to doubt he would, then he has a son now Agustin III who was born in say 1830
- Note 2 -
Louis Philippe of France, overthrown 1848 dies in exile in 1850
His eldest grandson (Louis) Philippe was born in 1838 and only really becomes a player on the international scene in the mid-late 1850s with the constant failure of the Second Republic. Coming of age at the right time he is able to benefit from widespread disillusion with the Republic and a restoration occurs at a time when Britain is increasingly distracted by events in the Americas (the US Civil War and the outbreak of the Mexican-Spanish War)
Taking the throne as Philippe VII, he married in 1864 his first cousin Marie Isabelle of Orleans, daughter of the Duc de Montpensier (brother of his late father)
(6) The 1860s
At the start of 1860s King George VII is finally convinced by parliament to allow them to declare war on the Confederacy, and Britain's entry on the Union side is one of the things which helps to finish off the war, albeit in the intermediate term
Britain and Mexico thus end up entering the ACW on the side of the Union
The restored French monarchy is backing the Kingdom of Sardinia in the North, against the republican forces elsewhere
Union victory in the US Civil War
- agreement with Britain and Mexico as their allies
- sees US recognition of Mexico's annexation of Cuba
- and Britain and Mexico agree to the USA's annexation of Texas (to the Nueces)
- plus the USA give a guarantee to the Mexican Empire on their mutual borders
Second Italian War
- The 'Murat' republican forces from the South swallow up the moribund Roman Republic and the infant republic in Florence and unite South-Central Italy in one republic
- But in the North, French-sponsored Sardinia forms a rival "Italy" annexing by popular acclaim Milan, Venice and the duchies
- Germany becomes involved on its Southern border
A Franco-German war is negotiated away with British intervention
After negotiation, Italy is divided between Sardinia in the North and the Republic in the South, with the Republic of Sicily outside this arrangement
Franco-German hostility
- one could imagine France acquiring de jure rights to Luxembourg and a long campaign to get Germany to agree to withdraw its last troops, with much difficulties in between
- Germany upgrades defences in the South, including one assumes in Carniola, Istria, Trieste which would all be German
- Germany may well ally with Murat's republic of the South
British Neutrality Patrol in the Mediterranean
- partly aimed at respecting Sicily's independence, so that the revolution is not exported from the mainland
- partly aimed at preventing either of the main Italian sides from gaining an advantage on the other
One could imagine that the moribund French Second Republic failed to subdue Abdul Kader in Algieria and that a de facto split of the country between himself and France came to pass.
Britain would presumably act with its naval forces to try to prevent the restored Orleans monarchy from changing this
End of Carlist Wars
- French support Carlists over liberals
- force a compromise, liberal Carlist son
Egypt
- Suez Canal is a French/Republican project
- Completed by the restored monarchy
Ottomans pleased
- no insult from Egypt
- Compromise on Egyptian ironclads : especially with regard to Russian machinations in "Compromise" Bulgaria
This latter has come about after Russian pressure on the Ottomans during the period of complete distraction of the other European powers
As the Compromise in Italy breaks down at the end of the 1860s and Europe heads towards war, Russia puts increased pressure on the Ottomans over Bulgaria (hence an Ottoman willingness to compromise with Egypt at this time)
(7) The 1870s
Britain and Germany oppose Russia on 'liberal' grounds
- leads to Bulgarian Crisis
had been in abeyance, now see no ends to it, full scale revolt
With Germany distracted by war on its Eastern border, France pushes things in Italy where all pretence at an intermediate solution has been abandoned and where Sardinia and the Republic are fighting a series of undeclared wars in the duchies and Northern Tuscany
The British Neutrality Patrol has moved to the Aegean with war blossoming in the East
1872-74 War
- Britain, Germany and the Ottomans versus Russia
- Strains lead to India Crisis; there had been no Mutiny in this ATL, but the strains of war with Russia lead to a blow-up in Anglo-Indian relations and a serious problem for Britain just as it starts military action against Russia in concert with Germany
Germany signs a secret non-aggression pact with France, including guarantees for Istria, Trieste and Carniola
This frees France to pursue its ambitions in Italy, helping Sardinia to defeat the republic, take Rome where the Pope's temporal powers are resumed, albeit on a power-sharing basis with the Savoyards, and push on into Naples
British naval presence, albeit reduced, discourages any attempt to cross the Straits of Messina and thus the Republic of Sicily survives
France and Sardinia engage in drawn-out guerilla warfare against Murat-republican forces in Naples
1874 Peace
- readjustment of the Polish border
- Hungary swallows vassal Croatia-Slavonia as no one looking
- Bulgaria emerges as autonomous
Best Regards
Grey Wolf