It would take a very early PoD that would likely butterfly away the United States in any recognizable form. But it's doable albeit difficult since the tribes adapted well to the challenges of European incursion and the cultural changes it brought. I think you'd need a strong Louisiana to counterbalance the British colonies, but not strong enough it can reliably project power past the Tennessee River or much further inland than the Gulf. From there we could see some consolidation amongst at least a few of the Five Civilized Tribes as a useful buffer state to the British and French. Ideally you might get a sort of confederation between them encompassing the southern Appalachians in East Tennessee, western North Carolina, northwestern Georgia, and northern Alabama, maybe with the border being around the Tennessee and Tombigbee Rivers. That land has a lot of potential from coal to rich farmland to rivers for industry.
They'd probably have a mixed-race elite ruling over full blooded lower class individuals and many slaves. I think there'd be a decent amount of white settlement too but in a far less colonial context than OTL.
Basically they just need to play off Britain and France and hope for the best.
Native tribes had neither technology nor population density for even organized states to be a deciding barrier to European settlement, I think. Especially since most of the conquest was done... well, by accident, through various diseases that Europeans had introduced (although there were definitely examples of intentional biological warfare as well). After all, much more organized and powerful native states of today's Latin America did not fare well at all against European conquerors (though to be sure, there were other factors at play there as well).
Weapons aren't a problem, they can trade for horses, guns, and powder as they did OTL and eventually make their own using the rich deposits found in the caves of the Cumberland Plateau. Population, well, they'd have enough mixed-race individuals and slaves to make up for drops in population and limited white settlement would also help (and make more mixed people with better genes for disease resistance).