Civil War under President Douglas?

Let's say Douglas never makes his pledge not to accept the Presidency by the house delegations, and instead of going South to attempt to preserve the Union through dialogue, he decides to campaign in New York a little more, and narrowly takes it over Lincoln, depriving Lincoln of the majority. So the candidates for President are Lincoln, Douglas, Breckenridge or if they don't move fast, Joe Lane.

The delegation breakdown was:
Republican: 15 (2 short)
N. Democrat: 1
S. Democrat: 13
Ex-Whigs: 1

Kentucky and Maryland were split between Southern Democrats and Ex-Whigs and Missouri was split between Northern and Southern Democrats.

Southern Democrats do not support Douglas, hoping instead to run out the clock and swear in Lane. Douglas is selected as the compromise candidate of Ex-Whig delegations and Republicans.

Feeling cheated, South Carolina and other states of the original Confederacy (but a bit later due to the drama unfolding in the House). Douglas would try to negotiate with them, but in real life when he saw negotiation as impossible, he wanted Lincoln to crush the revolt with 200,000 volunteers (as opposed to the 75,000 he called for). So, how would the Upper South respond to a invasion of their sister states by Douglas as opposed to Lincoln?
 
Let's say Douglas never makes his pledge not to accept the Presidency by the house delegations, and instead of going South to attempt to preserve the Union through dialogue, he decides to campaign in New York a little more, and narrowly takes it over Lincoln, depriving Lincoln of the majority. So the candidates for President are Lincoln, Douglas, Breckenridge or if they don't move fast, Joe Lane.

The delegation breakdown was:
Republican: 15 (2 short)
N. Democrat: 1
S. Democrat: 13
Ex-Whigs: 1

Kentucky and Maryland were split between Southern Democrats and Ex-Whigs and Missouri was split between Northern and Southern Democrats.

Southern Democrats do not support Douglas, hoping instead to run out the clock and swear in Lane. Douglas is selected as the compromise candidate of Ex-Whig delegations and Republicans.

Feeling cheated, South Carolina and other states of the original Confederacy (but a bit later due to the drama unfolding in the House). Douglas would try to negotiate with them, but in real life when he saw negotiation as impossible, he wanted Lincoln to crush the revolt with 200,000 volunteers (as opposed to the 75,000 he called for). So, how would the Upper South respond to a invasion of their sister states by Douglas as opposed to Lincoln?

Douglas will not be among the top three candidates even if Lincoln loses New York. The reason is that what is misleadingly referred to as a Douglas ticket in that state was actually an anti-Lincoln fusion ticket. See http://books.google.com/books?pg=PA131&id=ncnojnRkVGEC&output=text for a complete listing of the New York "Union Electoral Ticket" which consisted of 18 Douglas men, 10 Bell men, and 7 Breckinridge men. So the new electoral vote total will be

Lincoln 145
Breckinridge 79
Bell 49
Douglas 30

and while the race goes into the House, Douglas could not be a candidate even if he wanted to be. Even if you also give Douglas Lincoln's electoral votes from California and New Jersey, he still has only 38 votes and is still in fourth place. http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/u/usa/pres/1860.txt) Even if you add Illinois with its eleven electoral votes, he still is only tied with Bell for third-fourth place at 49 each. It is arguable that in this case the House can only choose between the top two candidates, insamuch as the Twelfth Amendment says "not exceeding three." But even if you interpret it as allowing four candidates when there is a tie for third place, while this lets Douglas into the race in the House, it also lets Bell in, and Republicans if they feel they *have* to vote for a non-Republican, would prefer Bell to Douglas. (Bell had, with Sam Houston, been one of only two southern senators to oppose the Kansas-Nebraska bill.)
 
Feeling cheated, South Carolina and other states of the original Confederacy (but a bit later due to the drama unfolding in the House).

You're missing a verb here.

In any case, it is highly unlikely that even South Carolina declares secession. No other state would do so; only the most crazed Fire-Eaters would accuse Douglas of being an enemy of the South.

Remember, even with a Republican as President-elect, the votes on secession were fairly close in several Deep South states. Without the panic over Black Republicans about to incite a slave insurrection, there is no secession majority outside SC, and SC will not act alone.
 
Douglas

Actually after he oppressed southern efforts to get Kansas in the union as a slave state he lost any real chance of southern support. Do not forget also the Democratic Party division in 1860 was due to this opposition to the south.

 
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