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Imagine if instead of South Carolina and the rest of the Confederacy seceding in 1861, they decided to do so a decade earlier in 1850. This was the era of the debates leading to the Great Compromise of 1850, which like all compromises left all sides feeling dissatisfied and postponed the inevitable. I imagine the South actually being able to pull it off if it happened this way.

Logistics:
  • In 1861, there were 30,000 miles of railroad track, but in 1850 there was less than 8,000 miles
  • The lack of railroads would mean resupply would be largely if not entirely tied to the rivers
  • The factory systems for resupply was just emerging and the population ratio gave better odds to the South (due to the immigration wave not yet hitting)

Tactics/Strategy:
  • The "minie ball" hasn't been invented so the average range for shoulder weapons is still 100 yards (thus the charges of the South would still have been effective)
  • The South merely has to defend while the North has to mainatin an aggressive campaign over an area larger than Western Europe with fronts a thousand miles apart
  • Without the rail network making them focal points, cities like Atlanta and Chattanooga are merely spots on the map, so Sherman's March would logistically impossible

Politics:
  • The South would merely have to hang on until the 1852 election with a candidate putting forth a "hell with it" attitude and sending out peace feelers
  • Sherman's capture of Atlanta was what won Lincoln the 1864 election. Without a major victory like that, I highly doubt Millard Filmore would have been reelected (even though he only took office because Zachary Taylor died) and it's unlikely Franklin Pierce would have pushed for continuing the war

Does anyone think we'd have a USA and CSA today if this had happened?
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