Hi folks,
My question here, is what would the fewest changes to existing battles could've resulted in the south winning the war? I'm in a write up right now and the battles and 'orders of battle' are starting to get overwhelming here at the outset.
I'm going to set a few provisos beforehand as to the state of the United States in 1860 in this timeline:
-Cuba was purchased in 1819 from Spain like Florida and became a state in 1845, and is roughly as populated as FL
-'Columbia' became a state, encompassing 49° to 52° N directly above Washington territory, and includes Vancouver Island
-The Mexican-American War resulted in the US acquiring both Texas and Rio Grande as new slave states, along with Alta and Baja California, New Mexico, Sonora, and Chihuahua
-California was divided along 37° N into North (free) and South (slave) to appease those who settled those parts of the state.
-John Gorrie's air conditioning got funding in 1855 and he didn't die early, so air conditioning became a known thing by 1860 in Florida, Cuba, Louisiana, and Texas/Rio Grande.
That territory aside, let's assume secession proceeds as in OTL.
I would like to include:
-Kentucky and Missouri seceding successfully with the other states
-West Virginia seceding back into the Union successfully
-British and French recognition of the Confederacy, and 'breaking' the blockade; possibly either as simple 'clothes, boots, blankets, etc.' for cotton in 1861/2 before becoming war supplies by 1863
-Confederate arming and freeing of slaves by 1862 into integrated units with people from their same state/town; essentially an earlier General Order 14, and states like NC, AL, MS taking their own initiative and sending armed and freed slaves to fight; Louisiana Creoles armed and serving
-the Special Order 191 is not left behind
-Sherman is either captured or killed before reaching Atlanta
-Gettysburg has Johnson and Ewell take Culp's and Cemetery Hill as per discretionary orders.
-possibly New Orleans being defended, or retaken from Butler, but Vicksburg being a CS victory.
-Lincoln gets reelected in 1864 and must order negotiations for peace
Such that by 1865, Lee's ANV is able to force Union surrender, and there is a negotiated peace by July 4. At the end of it, the CS includes: Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, North and South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana, Missouri, Indian Territory, Arizona/New Mexico Territory; then in this altered timeline, Rio Grande, Sonora and Chihuahua territories, Southern California, Cuba. (this tier of territory is not strictly essential to this timeline but would help show it to be an alternate history already and help suspend disbelief)
All that said, it's for an alternate history novel, naturally, wherein only a few things change to lead to the radically different outcome. It's a big topic, and if some folks might be able to help guide me a bit to focus on things that could change to lead to an independent CS that would be great.