Civil war in egypt and/or Tunisia 2011 Arab Spring

[Magical123]

What are the possibilities resulting in and arising from syrian style civil wars in egypt or Tunisia in 2011 during the intensity of the Arab spring. Are the populations and geographies conducive to it. If they occurred how would they impact the current maneuvering and power rivalries in the middle east? Could they fundamentally reorder the Middle East and North Africa might the migrant crisis be much worse?

 

[Alcsentre Calanice]

Is a civil war in Egypt even possible? I doubt that geography allows real frontlines. It would be northern part of the Nile against southern part of the Nile.

 

[Magical123]

That's something I was hoping someone would answer

 

[RousseauX]

Is a civil war in Egypt even possible? I doubt that geography allows real frontlines. It would be northern part of the Nile against southern part of the Nile.

Not really, not because of geography but because in both Tunisia and Egypt the army was far too united and cohesive of an institution. Meaning that if the chief of staff has a reasonable amount of control over the soldiers, the army was reasonably modern and functionally organizationally, and there is no inherit divisions in the army.

In Syria the army split, often along secretarian lines which started the civil war in the first place. Same with Yemen. Egypt doesn't have secretarianism as a real issue and therefore it's pretty unlikely for it to happen considering every Arab Spring civil war was pretty secretarian in nature.

 

[Alex Richards]

Not really, not because of geography but because in both Tunisia and Egypt the army was far too united and cohesive of an institution. Meaning that if the chief of staff has a reasonable amount of control over the soldiers, the army was reasonably modern and functionally organizationally, and there is no inherit divisions in the army.

In Syria the army split, often along secretarian lines which started the civil war in the first place. Same with Yemen. Egypt doesn't have secretarianism as a real issue and therefore it's pretty unlikely for it to happen considering every Arab Spring civil war was pretty secretarian in nature.

Except Libya where the post-Civil War splits are basically 'Gadaffi destroyed every state apparatus so there's not much tradition of organisation above the village level'.

 

[Magical123]

So another question could civil wars have erupted or at least civil unrest have been more severe in the gulf states, Jordan or morocco. Isn't it ironic that none of the monarchies in the Middle East and North Africa were toppled? Huh? I mean could Morocco, Jordan, Saudi Arabia collapse I mean what would be the consequences of the Hashemites on sticks and the (quee dark lonely music) Fall of the House of Saud?

 

[hasdrubal barca]

So another question could civil wars have erupted or at least civil unrest have been more severe in the gulf states, Jordan or morocco. Isn't it ironic that none of the monarchies in the Middle East and North Africa were toppled? Huh? I mean could Morocco, Jordan, Saudi Arabia collapse I mean what would be the consequences of the Hashemites on sticks and the (quee dark lonely music) Fall of the House of Saud?

Morocco is pretty stable I doubt they could slip into civil war.

With Jordan and Saudis its somewhat possible. Jordan has a large disenfranchised Palestinian population. Saudi Arabia has the Shia Eastern Province plus radical Sunni elements.

 

[Emperor Julian]

Saudi Arabia looks like it could have potential for a civil war, having numerous different population centers separated by lots of desert.

 

[An Oklahoman]

Civil War is very much a possibility in the case of Egypt.

Off the top of my head I could think of three PODs.

1.) Weak leadership takes over after the 2011 Revolution. Sinai militants expand into nations heartland.

2.)Some elements of the army obey Mubarack orders and attack the protesters. It would likely end like Rumania, with the majority of the Army siding with the protesters and swiftly deposing Mubarack.

3.) The most probable: In the wake of the 2013 Coupultion (Coup/Revolution), the Muslim Brotherhood initiates a guerrilla campaign against the Sisi government. It ends up like the Algerian civil war.

The dense concentration of the population around the Nile would force most of the fighting to occur in the cities and would likely mirror the Communist insurgency in Uruguay.

 

[Magical123]

Okay then how would that play out would there be an initial rush by the Egyptian government to crush a MB insurgency. Also to me an entrenched, embedded urban insurgency in Egypt would be a nightmare in Washington and the other Western powers. Could a similar situation erupt in Tunisia?