Cinco de Mayo

[Dragonboy]

Great to see more of Brazil and that the situation does not escalate to the point of wanting the monarchy gone

 

[naraht]

Oh yeah

Partially, though that’s sometimes a bit of an oversimplification by its opponents (as is the inverse - many transit advocates believe a vast conspiracy between automakers and oil majors prevents transit from becoming a thing, when the bigger issue was that streetcar companies were private and thus collapsed when private cars and city buses, both of which the automakers could produce cheaply with their postwar factory capacity, outcompeted them).

The US had a very well developed transit and rail system up until the 1950s, then it collapsed with the highway boom. Population density and the financial failure of private transit firms that didn’t enjoy government ownership is part of the equation, but city planning choices undertaken in the era in the US was a much bigger factor. European cities went about half the way, being overrrun with cars from about the 1950s to the late 1990s, they just didn’t bulldoze entire city blocks to blast freeways through and raze neighborhoods for parking lots - though as the Corbusier plans show, it was proposed. The US was just dumb enough to actually implement the proposals (and had the money to, unlike recovering postwar Europe)

Oh, sure. We’re just looking at more intelligent, maybe Canada or Britain-style development patterns than anything else - you can’t just press a button and make Chicago look like the 9th Arrondisement.

Some US Cities managed to avoid a good number of the planned Interstates. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_revolts_in_the_United_States , Washington DC, for example probably only has about 1/3 of the planned limited access/interstate highway that was planned.

"you can’t just press a button and make Chicago look like the 9th Arrondisement."
Well maybe *you* can't press a button and make Chicago look like the 9th Arrondisement, but "Benny the Alien Space Bat" can.

Seriously, I don't think Chicago would want that. Chicago, like many western US Cities has a *very* right angle gridded downtown. (See also Denver, Los Angeles (though a few different grids (and Manhattan and DC in the east)) and the absolute *winners* in that category, most of the cities in the state of Utah. There appears to be *one* road that can be taken from one side to the other of the 9th arrondisement without turning. The only way to travel in a straight line in Paris is to build tunnels underground!

Having said that, even without the same level of oil, I expect that eventually, there will be the ability to travel from coast to coast on Limited Access Highways. I'm not sure where the POD needs to be to have North America between 30 degrees north and 50 degrees not being *the* home of the coast to coast limited access highways (I'm thinking the Precambrian era. )

 

[KingSweden24]

Great to see more of Brazil and that the situation does not escalate to the point of wanting the monarchy gone

Thanks! Hopefully the circumstances coalescing in Brazil make sense, and the setup for its slide into “interesting times” after the war is straightforward

Some US Cities managed to avoid a good number of the planned Interstates. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_revolts_in_the_United_States , Washington DC, for example probably only has about 1/3 of the planned limited access/interstate highway that was planned.

"you can’t just press a button and make Chicago look like the 9th Arrondisement."
Well maybe *you* can't press a button and make Chicago look like the 9th Arrondisement, but "Benny the Alien Space Bat" can.

Seriously, I don't think Chicago would want that. Chicago, like many western US Cities has a *very* right angle gridded downtown. (See also Denver, Los Angeles (though a few different grids (and Manhattan and DC in the east)) and the absolute *winners* in that category, most of the cities in the state of Utah. There appears to be *one* road that can be taken from one side to the other of the 9th arrondisement without turning. The only way to travel in a straight line in Paris is to build tunnels underground!

Having said that, even without the same level of oil, I expect that eventually, there will be the ability to travel from coast to coast on Limited Access Highways. I'm not sure where the POD needs to be to have North America between 30 degrees north and 50 degrees not being *the* home of the coast to coast limited access highways (I'm thinking the Precambrian era. )

The grid layout is indeed one of the greater city planning innovations of the United States - one largely tossed in the last fifty years for the cul de sac!

But yeah, the lengthy cross-country highways aren’t really avoidable, and Black Jack Pershing himself drafted a plan for where to route them that today’s interstate system largely follows. You could just see that being more of an intercity phenomenon rather than an intracity one

 

[naraht]

Thanks! Hopefully the circumstances coalescing in Brazil make sense, and the setup for its slide into “interesting times” after the war is straightforward

The grid layout is indeed one of the greater city planning innovations of the United States - one largely tossed in the last fifty years for the cul de sac!

But yeah, the lengthy cross-country highways aren’t really avoidable, and Black Jack Pershing himself drafted a plan for where to route them that today’s interstate system largely follows. You could just see that being more of an intercity phenomenon rather than an intracity one

Still the question of routing at "crossroad cities" will be interesting. Beltways or a crossing near city center.

Still in order for the losers from least to most disrupted by the war...

1) Mexico
2) Centroamerica
3) Brazil
4) Chile
5) CSA.
But there is a *lot* of room between Brazil and Centroamerica

 

[Mayukh]

Thanks! Hopefully the circumstances coalescing in Brazil make sense, and the setup for its slide into “interesting times” after the war is straightforward

Need to fact check this but heard that the Argentines used to support Riograndese Independence Movement ? May be independent Riogrande at the end of GAW?

 

[DanMcCollum]

Thanks! Hopefully the circumstances coalescing in Brazil make sense, and the setup for its slide into “interesting times” after the war is straightforward

The grid layout is indeed one of the greater city planning innovations of the United States - one largely tossed in the last fifty years for the cul de sac!

But yeah, the lengthy cross-country highways aren’t really avoidable, and Black Jack Pershing himself drafted a plan for where to route them that today’s interstate system largely follows. You could just see that being more of an intercity phenomenon rather than an intracity one

The history is early highways in the US is actually somewhat interesting - they were often just preexisting roads which were linked together into an unofficial network by Good Road Associations. The Yellowstone Trail was the first transcontinental highway in the nation and it was largely just another roads that the association marked with painted yellow pillars (hense the name). Back in my Master's program, my advisor as part of a class trip went out of his way to show us some of the markers in North Dakota and it was cool - I always thought it would be fun to take a trip and follow the old trail. I kinda suspect that with the efforts to build up the US defenses and readiness in the leadup to the GAW, that highway development is further along than in OTL.; though what form that takes I am unsure.

Yellowstone Trail - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

On a completely unrelated note: how fairs Alaska these days?

 

[nagachate]

Need to fact check this but heard that the Argentines used to support Riograndese Independence Movement ? May be independent Riogrande at the end of GAW?

Considering Argentina is losing, both Hermes and Machado were gaúchos, and that separstism was nill in Brazil since the 1840s i doubt it suffice to say.

 

[Mayukh]

Considering Argentina is losing, both Hermes and Machado were gaúchos, and that separstism was nill in Brazil since the 1840s i doubt it suffice to say.

The Author has implied that almost all of rhe Bloc Sud members will lose.
Also I dod say that it needded to be fact checked.

 

[Taunay]

Considering Argentina is losing, both Hermes and Machado were gaúchos, and that separstism was nill in Brazil since the 1840s i doubt it suffice to say.

Foreigners may be shocked, but since the mid-19th century separatism had become a dirty word and outright villified by the vast majority of Brazilians. Even when we had a shaky transition to a republic which abolished a popular monarchy, you saw few separatist movements. In fact "separatism" had become a propaganda tool used to smear enemies of the State, such as in the Riograndense Federalist Revolution or the 1932 Constitutionalist Revolution

 

[nagachate]

O Imperio do Futuro: The Rise of Brazil

I don't know how much my suggestion impacted this, but i like it. I wonder if the incompetence of Hermes and his group will leave the low rank officers dissatisfied enough for a revolution, specially considering the huge Italian and Iberian communities in the big cities bringing anarchism and socialism to Brazil right around this period.

I know you hinted that the monarchy will survive, but i find it hard for it to be anywhere near a paramount unifying force, probably closer to Spain at best and the Greek monarchy at worse.

 

[nagachate]

Foreigners may be shocked, but since the mid-19th century separatism had become a dirty word and outright villified by the vast majority of Brazilians. Even when we had a shaky transition to a republic which abolished a popular monarchy, you saw few separatist movements. In fact "separatism" had become a propaganda tool used to smear enemies of the State, such as in the Riograndense Federalist Revolution or the 1932 Constitutionalist Revolution

Right? The trope of balkanizing Brazil is just so weird.

 

[DanMcCollum]

The Author has implied that almost all of rhe Bloc Sud members will lose.
Also I dod say that it needded to be fact checked.

No Brazil most certainly wins and beats Argetina. It's just that the victory pretty much turns to ash in their mouth; the social stresses unleashed by the war destabilize the Empire and we're going to see the rise of Integrationalism in the post-war world. Perhaps the best way of think of it is that Brazil goes through a similar process to Italy after WWI (though Integrationalism isn't Fascism).

 

[nagachate]

No Brazil most certainly wins and beats Argetina. It's just that the victory pretty much turns to ash in their mouth; the social stresses unleashed by the war destabilize the Empire and we're going to see the rise of Integrationalism in the post-war world. Perhaps the best way of think of it is that Brazil goes through a similar process to Italy after WWI (though Integrationalism isn't Fascism).

Brazil might aswell have lost, Integralism will send the country back to the 1790s at its worse, just when TTL Brazil seemed to be ahead of its real life counterpart.

 

[Taunay]

Brazil might aswell have lost, Integralism will send the country back to the 1790s at its worse, just when TTL Brazil seemed to be ahead of its real life counterpart.

Which type of integralism is there ITTL?
For what I remember, OTL Integralism (Just like all major ideologies in Brazil at that time like Communism and Varguism) was pro-industry, so much so that its main bases of support were the urban middle-class and the intellectuals, who were both favorable of industrialization (Especially in the state of São Paulo)

 

[nagachate]

Which type of integralism is there ITTL?

AFAIK so far they havent formed, but their predecessors seem to be highly isolationists, France seems to be going to spend the next decades after its righr wing takeover trying to keep its empire together.

For what I remember, OTL Integralism (Just like all major ideologies in Brazil at that time like Communism and Varguism) was pro-industry, so much so that its main bases of support were the urban middle-class and the intellectuals, who were both favorable of industrialization (Especially in the state of São Paulo)

Didn't Salgado wrote about how industrial society was corruptive, and how the countryside was the "true Brazil"?

 

[Taunay]

Didn't Salgado wrote about how industrial society was corruptive, and how the countryside was the "true Brazil"?

Yes, but that doesn't mean that they couldn't be supportive of industry.
In his "Considerações Gerais Sobre a Indústria Brasileira" (General Considerations on Brazilian Industry), written by Miguel Reale (A major Integralist figure), he criticizes the Brazilian industrial system, but he doesn't go against industrialization itself:

Considering this issue of relevant importance, basic in any and all studies on Brazilian industry. It is not enough to preach industrialization. It is necessary that industrialization be preached as a chapter of the economy and national policy, in order to avoid clashes between regions and clashes of particular interests, through “the location of activities following a balanced exchange plan, taking into account the geographical and human conditions” , for which “a totalitarian vision is allowed, prior to any measure of administrative direction, so that each step of the march of national upliftment is taken in the exact direction of the goal to be achieved”. [two]

Furthermore, the State must take care of direct aid to promising industries, increasing knowledge of our immense riches, creating schools and technical colleges, transforming the banking organization into the true “heart” of the economy, supplying national producers [From the context of the quote, this could mean industrialists] with indispensable resources.

Basically, they supported industrialization. They simply didn't like the way that the Brazilian industry was structured.

 

[Reisen Storm]

I just realize that the Hobbit and Lord of the Rings won’t be written in this timeline since Tolkien won’t be fighting in the trenches of the Great European War.

 

[DanMcCollum]

I just realize that the Hobbit and Lord of the Rings won’t be written in this timeline since Tolkien won’t be fighting in the trenches of the Great European War.

I mean, Tolkein started drafting his languages and world of Middle Earth while still a student - so something along those lines will exist. But his lack of experience in the trenhes is going to drastically effect the stories he tells.

 

[naraht]

Thinking about post-war peace treaties.
1) We've essentially been told in text what the Brazilian/Argentine treaty looks like. Mesopotamia is demilitarized, and Brazil gets Uruguay as a puppet.
2) Chile will lose land in the south to Argentina, *possibly* even more than the border iOTL, far southern Chile is only accessible through Argentina iOTL! Chile will also lose land to Bolivia (don't remember if Peru has land to regain or not. If they do, they get it back.
3) Brazil and the US will sign a treaty to end the war, and then stare at each other for at least the next 20 years.
4) Mexico & the US, Either the US gets Baja or Mexico undoes the nationalization of American companies. still TBD.
5) USA and CSA. This is going to be a *mess*. (If you told me the treaty was longer than all of the other peace treaties that I've mentioned, that's fine.) My honest guess is that at least two CSA cities will see the level of wholesale destruction (though probably not rape) that Washington & Baltimore did. (Of note, I'm not sure *any* cities other than Belgrade had the major level of destruction in WWI that this war has already seen)

We already know from Author comments (I believe) that the US is gaining the Arizona Territory, Texas is independent and the IT are under the US umbrella. Note, Texas independence probably isn't a US war aim, but I'd expect the treaty to deal with them as well. With DC becoming a graveyard (either formally or informally) the need to gain land to protect *it* is much less needed. The living US cities that needs the most protection from a close by confederacy are on the Ohio river. (Cincinnati, Evansville, Cairo).

So land wise, the Virginia part of the "Delmarva" is going to be part of the US (non-negotiable). the US will never risk ships in Baltimore being bottled up again. I'd expect that the US will have both shores of the Potomac after the war. I don't expect most of the Southern edge of West Virginia to expand though, I wouldn't want to attack the US through that area with *any* century's weaponry.

At *minimum*, the Ohio (and the Mississippi between Kentucky and Missouri) is closed to Confederate armed ships, with the US Navy/Coast Guard (unclear if they would be USN or not) able to board any CSA ship to look for weapons. Anything beyond a revolver is grounds for seizure of the ship.

New Orleans may end up as an open city of some sort. Likely no change on the Missouri/Arkansas border (substitute Ozarks for Southern West Virginia)

Still want the Free Republic of Kentucky...

All of these can be dealt somewhat similarly to the other treaties, *but*

(BIGGEST QUESTIONS)
*HOW* does the United States enforce the end of chattel Slavery and *HOW* does the United States find US Citizens that have been sold south. There really is no alternative to an occupation of the entire confederacy for a year, (MORE?) in order to have a chance of finding them. What does the US do if in 1920, the US finds out that a Black US Citizen from Baltimore has been held in slavery in Macon, Georgia since the the war and no level of CSA government has been willing to do anything.
(END BIGGEST QUESTIONS)

With the Mexicans being the "Good Enemy", it is entirely possible that the US will allow the Mexican soldiers (especially those that fought west of the Mississippi) to basically get on a train and go home *while* final peace treaty negotiations are going on. The author hasn't said anything indicating that the US would want any Mexican government officials or top soldiers would be placed on trial.

OTOH, how much of the Confederate Military gets War Trials, at minimum any soldier involved in the groups that went against civilians in DC/MD/PA. We aren't looking at Henry Wirtz, we are looking at the possible execution of hundreds of soldiers (Think Nuremberg if the French and Soviets had run them). The other question is what happens to the Political Leadership of the CSA, at least the current one. The confederacy may get *lucky* and elect someone in 1915(?) that the US would be willing to work with and hold *relatively* blameless. OTOH, if the CSA elects a general whose current claim to fame is the destruction of Baltimore, things could get *very* ugly. I'm honestly curious as to whether Kaiser Wilhelm or Hideki Tojo iOTL is the model here. The Confederate Army gets a maximum size, the Confederate Navy may or may not. (Given the CSN research into armored ships, could we see an emphasis on Submarines in the CSA to get around that (echoes of interwar Germany)

It will be interesting to see how long it takes the Confederacy reach some level of Stability...

 

[Curtain Jerker]

I just realize that the Hobbit and Lord of the Rings won’t be written in this timeline since Tolkien won’t be fighting in the trenches of the Great European War.

Jokes! I like the books! Just an easy opportunity to poke fun is all.