Cinco de Mayo

[KingSweden24]

Author Interlude:

The narrative you see here is based largely on my long-held belief that a victorious Confederacy would have more in common with plantation-economy caudillo states of South America than European monarchies or, in TL-191's case, Nazi Germany. This belief will influence the way I develop the victorious Confederacy moving forward, and is a big reason why it will be a country that eventually has more to do with Latin America than Europe in the decades ahead.

I also decided to proceed with the Alaska Purchase because A) Russia put feelers regarding a sale out to the Buchanan administration that was distracted by the impending secession crisis, so a Democratic Seymour administration would not be opposed to the move and here buys the territory earlier than IOTL due to the war ending in 1863 and B) Russia was really really desperate to dump Alaska before Britain or the USA simply seized it, so here despite the USA having lost the war, it still buys Alaska - albeit for a somewhat lower amount, due purely to butterflies.

I'm about to dig a little more into the situation in Europe next, where my expertise is not particularly strong, so there may be some retconning based on critique I receive. And as always, I'd love to hear thoughts and comments.

 

[TheNerd_]

Great Timeline, especially for a first. You kind of put my (unpublished) writings to shame. Also, I really dig Habsburg Mexico.

Edit: Watched.

 

[pathfinder]

Mexico under Maximilian will always be one of my favorite alt history ideas.

Will Carlota still go mad in this TL? What about Maximilian's infrastructure projects, particularly his plans for a railroad network? And do you plan to expound upon his interest in building up the oil industry in Mexico, considering that his government's initial activity concerning such was cut short and not acted upon by the Republicans for nearly 30 years?

 

[B-Team]

The only thing I don't like is that Mexico sell territory to CSA

 

[Darth_Kiryan]

The narrative you see here is based largely on my long-held belief that a victorious Confederacy would have more in common with plantation-economy caudillo states of South America than European monarchies or, in TL-191's case, Nazi Germany. This belief will influence the way I develop the victorious Confederacy moving forward, and is a big reason why it will be a country that eventually has more to do with Latin America than Europe in the decades ahead.

interesting approach.

I am curious as to whether you could have the confederate government become a bit more parliamentary instead of congressional...

Ergo: a prime minister and president co- existing similar to some of the southern american nations...

 

[KingSweden24]

Great Timeline, especially for a first. You kind of put my (unpublished) writings to shame. Also, I really dig Habsburg Mexico.

Edit: Watched.

Thanks! Glad you're enjoying it.

Mexico under Maximilian will always be one of my favorite alt history ideas.

Will Carlota still go mad in this TL? What about Maximilian's infrastructure projects, particularly his plans for a railroad network? And do you plan to expound upon his interest in building up the oil industry in Mexico, considering that his government's initial activity concerning such was cut short and not acted upon by the Republicans for nearly 30 years?

I don't think Carlota would go mad if Maximilian doesn't die his unfortunate death. Not to get too far ahead but yes, I think in terms of infrastructure and oil exploration Max will be a big positive for Mexico's development in his ability to attract European investment.

The only thing I don't like is that Mexico sell territory to CSA

Mexico has not sold any territory to the CSA ITTL.

interesting approach.

I am curious as to whether you could have the confederate government become a bit more parliamentary instead of congressional...

Ergo: a prime minister and president co- existing similar to some of the southern american nations...

Sort of, I'd say. Hostilities between Congress and the Administration will definitely be a feature of Confederate politics, and I don't foresee the CSA being the kind of country to ever allow direct elections of Senators when planter-controlled state legislatures can send pliable representatives to Richmond. Tensions between states that actually believe in state's rights and central governments who view it as a means to an end will be a bigger feature, though.

 

[KingSweden24]

"...as tensions rose between Berlin and Vienna, Napoleon III was left with a conundrum - he feared, emphatically, the growing power of Prussia on his borders, and was aligned in large part with the Hapsburgs. Though an Anglophile, Napoleon found Britain unamenable to his interests in an anti-Prussian alliance meant to forestall a united Germany, by now seen as an inevitability; Britain had remained skeptical of upsetting the continental balance of power since the Congress of Vienna and, with its strong Navy, was uninterested in adventurism upon the continent. And, to the same effect, many in the government of Lord Russell were still frustrated by France's decision to aggressively intervene in the War of Confederate Independence, despite their sympathy for the Southern cause, as it had endangered Britain's relationship with the United States.

Complicating matters for Paris was Napoleon's close relationship with Vienna as well as his patronage of the Papal States' independence, which made his position in a united Italy uneasy. Hoping to take advantage of what was expected to be a long, drawn-out war between Prussia and Austria - considered inevitable as relations soured between the two German hegemons - Napoleon signed a secret treaty with Austria guaranteeing territorial concessions in return for France's neutrality in a war Austria was, wrongly, expected to win."

- The Unification Wars

 

[KingSweden24]

"...at the outset of the Second Unification War, Austria would have been said to command a substantial advantage in pure numbers. However, the entry of Italy into the conflict in Venetia substantially complicated matters for Vienna, which was alarmed by the sudden advance of Prussian troops through Saxony. As von Moltke split up his armies in a daring move to bring the war to a quick end, Austria's leaders struggled to develop the right response..."

- The Unification Wars

 

[KingSweden24]

"...Austria's hopes to fight a two-front war and delay a victory by the Prussian-Italian alliance faltered with defeat at Custoza. Despite eliminating one of the split Prussian armies in Saxony - von Moltke's Folly, as it would later be called - the decisive loss on June 24 required Prince Albrecht to abandon Verona and retreat hastily towards Padua, in hopes of regrouping his forces. The surprising defeat also led France to begin to doubt the ability of her friends in Vienna to grind out a strategic victory. As the Venetian Army collapsed before Italy's throughout late June and Alfonso La Marmora's forces marched aggressively eastwards, Napoleon III began to wonder about the efficacy of playing peacemaker and finding the best possible position in the post-war order..."

- Jean -Albert Troufant, Italy Reborn (1961)

 

[KingSweden24]

"...with their superior training and tactics, Prussia could likely have won a more decisive victory at Sadowa and left the path to Vienna wide open, had one of their armies not been eliminated in the week beforehand. However, the tactically muddled result was still a long-term strategic win by Prussia. With their salient in Italy collapsing by early July and Padua and Venice under threat by advancing Italians, the Austrians began to debate a way to end the war in a face-saving manner. A second battle near Sadowa on July 6, also a tactical draw, resulted in the bloodied Austrians withdrawing southwards to better defend Prague and Vienna, and on July 10 Padua fell under siege by an Italian Army. France's neutrality was now standing to benefit Prussia more than Austria, and the likelihood of Russian intervention looked increasingly low..."

- Francis Joseph: Emperor of Austria (1932)

 

[KingSweden24]

And with that we're back! European history in the 19th century is certainly not my strong suit... any thoughts/comments on this alt-Austro-Prussian War?

 

[KingSweden24]

"Bismarck had a new crisis at hand in Berlin to extinguish, however, as Austria's armies engaged in an aggressive retreat through Bohemia: he had succeeded in his aim to win the war, for that was inevitable at this point, but he had failed in his efforts to create a decisive win that would end the war immediately. Prussia's armies continued to bleed even as they advanced, and Austria's situation became more dire even as she managed sporadic tactical victories throughout July and into early August. Italy would now clearly earn itself Venetia, that much was clear; and Vienna's position in Germany would never be paramount again. But now Bismarck struggled with a King, Wilhelm, who grew increasingly ambitious in terms of what he wanted the postwar European order to look like with each day, and pressure mounting from France for concessions in return for its continued neutrality. The dam finally broke on July 28, when an armistice was agreed upon - by Austria and Italy, brokered by Napoleon's foreign ministers. From here on out, Prussia would fight Austria and her South German allies alone..."

- Iron and Blood: The Wars of German Unification (1999)

 

[KingSweden24]

Peace of Prague (English Wikipedia Entry)

The Peace of Prague was a (German: Prager Frieden) was a peace treaty signed by the Kingdom of Prussia and the Austrian Empire at Prague on 2 September 1866. In combination with the treaties of Prussia and several south - and central German states it effectively ended the Second Unification War.

The treaty was lenient toward the Austrian Empire because Otto von Bismarck had persuaded Wilhelm I that maintaining Austria's place in Europe would be better in the future for Prussia than harsh terms, as Bismarck realized that without Austria, Prussia would be weakened in a relatively hostile Europe. At first, Wilhelm I had wanted to push on to Vienna and annex Austria but Bismarck stopped him, even threatening to resign, and, more drastically, to hurl himself out of the fourth story window of Nikolsburg Castle. Austria lost Veneto, ceded to Italy, and was forced to pay an indemnity to Italy as well. The Habsburgs were permanently excluded from German affairs (Kleindeutschland). The Kingdom of Prussia thus established itself as the only major power among the German states. The German Confederation was abolished. The North German Confederation had been formed as a military alliance two weeks prior to the Peace of Prague, with the north German states joining together; the Southern German states outside of the Confederation were required to pay large indemnities to Prussia.

 

[Nivek]

t first, Wilhelm I had wanted to push on to Vienna and annex Austria but Bismarck stopped him,

Wilhelm I only wanted Bohemia(maybe moravia too, but Bohemia was his true prize) as being the old electoral seat of the hasburgs, taking it would be the ultimate prize as the man regarded himself as the heir of the great elector...so yeah that might be a different account

 

[KingSweden24]

"...but what would have happened, had Benedek not eliminated the First Army before the pyrrhic holding of Sadowa? Prussian reinforcements would have dealt a decisive blow to Austrian forces, surely, not just thanks to numerical advantages but technological and tactical ones as well. By August, Prussia's logistical advantages were starting to reveal themselves. A more rapid advance by her forces would have been a disaster. We could have a seen a united Germany years earlier - it was known that Wilhelm I desired to annex Bohemia, and was only persuaded otherwise by a Bismarck who sought to maximize Prussia's geopolitical position more so than to embarrass the Hapsburgs. What would have happened, had the path to Vienna been wide open? Could Italy have taken Trieste and Dalmatia then, too? Would France have intervened to keep the balance of power fully intact? Would Russia have used this opportunity to seize Galicia and build an even greater Polish buffer on its west? Benedek's decision may[1], indeed, have rescued Austria from the ash-heaps of history... and changed the course of Europe's geography forever."

- Francis Joseph, Emperor of Austria (1932)

[1] Inspired by the work of Vidal on TLs such as Simba Roars and Passkey Down, i'll start inserting footnotes to justify my decisions or discuss research I've done. It should be pointed out that Benedek did indeed not act decisively before Sadowa in OTL when he could have taken out smaller Prussian armies one by one with his numerically superior Nord-Armee. Of course, the alt-Austro-Prussian War in TTL winds up with the same strategic end result, more or less, as our own; however, Prussia suffers more battlefield losses and Italy captures Venetia straight up, rather than having to be gifted it by the French in a "plebiscite."

 

[KingSweden24]

Wilhelm I only wanted Bohemia(maybe moravia too, but Bohemia was his true prize) as being the old electoral seat of the hasburgs, taking it would be the ultimate prize as the man regarded himself as the heir of the great elector...so yeah that might be a different account

Interesting! Duly noted. Presents potential ideas for the future in case Prussia and Austria ever decide to start squabbling again.

 

[KingSweden24]

"Despite brokering the Peace of Prague, Napoleon III left the table in September of 1866 empty handed and outraged. His allies in Italy had succeeded in securing Venetia, and Prussia now dominated all of Northern Germany and had cowed the south German states into uneasy alliance. Austria, whom Napoleon had guaranteed neutrality to, had signed the treaty in disgust, having acquitted themselves well on the battlefields of Bohemia before their position was clear, and now shut out of both Italy and Germany, long their spheres of foreign policy interest. A weak Austria, bordering on collapse and ruined financially by the war, its losses and the indemnity it was to pay Italy, was no good for Napoleon, who now saw a decline in influence in Italy, where Victor Emanuel now had his eyes upon Rome, defended largely by French garrisons; and now Russia, cordial with the Prussians, saw opportunities in Galicia. More than anything, though, the seismic changes in Central Europe were at the whims of the Emperor's ego; he had received nothing in return for staying out of a war that now had a potential new hegemon on his borders, and his ambitions along the Rhine and in the Low Countries remained unabated. Fuming and embarrassed by Bismarck's refusal to countenance any prize [1], Napoleon's attention was already focused on making sure the next crisis - for there would surely be another - ended to his advantage."

- Consolidated History of the Second French Empire, Volume I (1945)

[1] Bismarck famously boxed out Napoleon's requests for Mayence or Luxembourg as a reward for neutrality in OTL. Despite Prussia having taken heavier losses, TTL, I don't see why he wouldn't do the same here seeing as Austria is in a weaker position, too.

 

[Nivek]

[1] Bismarck famously boxed out Napoleon's requests for Mayence or Luxembourg as a reward for neutrality in OTL. Despite Prussia having taken heavier losses, TTL, I don't see why he wouldn't do the same here seeing as Austria is in a weaker position, too.

I think that was Nappy III own delusion or he wanted to get it when prussia was distracted, Bismarck never promised anything at all, might have not even knew about it

 

[KingSweden24]

I think that was Nappy III own delusion or he wanted to get it when prussia was distracted, Bismarck never promised anything at all, might have not even knew about it

My interpretation was that Nappy misread Otto's noncommittal answer as an affirmative "sure, i'll let you have Luxembourg" and he based his decision making off of that pretty weak response. We are very soon going to see the impacts of that.

 

[Nivek]

My interpretation was that Nappy misread Otto's noncommittal answer as an affirmative "sure, i'll let you have Luxembourg" and he based his decision making off of that pretty weak response. We are very soon going to see the impacts of that.

I thought was a delusion, OTL almost all his move in the 60's seems like those, from mexico, rome to luxemburg and spain