Honestly Ethiopia might've gotten a better deal than otl, without British presence in East Africa and diplomatic support for Russia, they can keep a part of/most of Eritrea after kickin' the Italians on the teeth, since it was Britain pushing for Italian presence in the region to counter any potential Russian influence in the area and to keep the region stable for both the Ottomans and their Egypt protectorate, with France controlling the Suez and their much more complicated relationship with Italy, it might be possible they just prefer Ethiopian control of Eritrea who couldn't strike into Djibouti because the French are not Italians and because they could make investiments and trade with a cordial Ethiopia (who is also easier to control and influence compared to Italy)
Cinco de Mayo
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Given Haiti’s status as a de facto protectorate and important naval outpost for the US, I wouldn’t be surprised if it has a much better economic future than IRL
My cat could run Haiti and make it less economically ruined if it was spared coups/wars/infighting.
If slave owners keep moving their slaves south when US troops advance when the war end confederacy territory left could have an overwhelmingly slave population. I don't know if that could spark revolts, if could cause a massive starvation among slaves due to food shortages and overpopulation or if could be a massive slave revolt that would end in several states of the south becoming an ex-slave dependent country.
Hope you're ready for the appearance of the Black Belt Socialist Republic and the Congaree Socialist Republic. It's a long time coming.
I myself have long been thinking there was going to a massive purge of slaves before the confederacy surrenders part starvation and neglecting part intentional ethnic cleansing either to prevent any rebellions as well as if they are losing stop the forming of a traitorous minority in the CSA for the occupation and post states.
Though given the ''breeding programs'', recent slave hunting in the Congo and the advances of modern medicine I would not be surprised if they where less a minority in some places than a majority not helped by the CSA becoming a industrial society that sees as you would imagine a lot of rural migration to cities well for free men the slaves are still stuck on the country side.
Though given the ''breeding programs'', recent slave hunting in the Congo and the advances of modern medicine I would not be surprised if they where less a minority in some places than a majority not helped by the CSA becoming a industrial society that sees as you would imagine a lot of rural migration to cities well for free men the slaves are still stuck on the country side.
Oh 100%. We're going to be covering some of that in 1915
Need a different name than "stormtrooper" with how associated with Germany that term is, but yeah, that'd be sweet. "Buffalo Soldier" is probably too associated with segregated units from the Indian Wars but I'm sure I can come up with something.
The CSA definitely doesn't think of Haiti as a neutral inside the inner circle, but even the idiots in Richmond aren't dumb enough to attack Port-au-Prince, at least not yet (Mole St. Nicholas and Tortuga are another matter).
Ethiopia managed to repulse Italy at Massawa in the mid-1890s and in my head canon have turned more towards a friendly posture with the British in the British Somaliland and East Africa. May want to do more with this, considering the soft spot Ethiopia holds in my heart, and how they get absolutely fucked in Bicentennial Man (an "Abyssinian Railroad" from Nairobi northwards, perhaps, making Ethiopia less reliant on the Italian Etritrean holdings?)
Yeah, Kentuckian auxiliaries are the most key role for freedmen at this time - also part of the setup in how the FCK gets eventually formed, and by whom.
Hadn't quite considered those geostrategic qualities, but yes. Britain wants to keep Ethiopia strong as an ally in the East African region they so cherish, and to keep a check on French expansionism in the Sudan and around Djibouti. Italy does have some of Eritrea, just not as much as OTL. As I mused up above, this could be a good opportunity for Britain to be Addis's main trade outlet, either via the Puntland or Mombasa.
Absolutely! That's part of the plan. My thinking is that it'll land somewhere between the OTL Dominican Republic and OTL Costa Rica in terms of its GDP per capita and standard of living. Certainly not Scandinavian levels of HDI but relatively safe, stable and developed, and with much more of a thriving tourism and services industry rather than just "poor and terrible." DR and Haiti had pretty similar OTL growth trajectories after all until Duvalier came along and Trujillo got overthrown, then the DR just took off while Haiti... yeah.
That being said, the US being the 800 lbs elephant in the room in Haiti with its naval stations on the north coast will have both a positive effect but also a negative one, in a world where Banana Wars mentalities never really leave a US whose focus is almost entirely on what goes on in the Americas and its trade lanes to East Asia and largely stays out of European affairs.
Hard to think of a situation where Haiti gets screwed worse than OTL
This flies a little close to TL-191, which while an inspiration for my TL is also something of a foil as I seek to subvert some of its tropes
A humanitarian nightmare of starvation, disease and economic collapse mixed with paramilitary activity and rural lawlessness is probably close to where we'll land than intentional ethnic cleansing. Quite honestly, one reason for some of my foot-dragging on longer term planning is I simply have no idea how the CSA pulls itself out of the hole it'll be in in the late 1910s to become a functional society ever again (I'm also trying to figure out how to land the plane on de jure desegregation in the late 1980s/early 1990s to really bring the South Africa allusion home, but there at least I have plenty of time, especially at my pace of storytelling, to figure something out lol)
It probably won't pull itself out of the hole tbh, pride comes before a fall and with no reconstruction or incorporation back into the USA, confederate leaders(the alive ones that is) will be left to deal with the aftermath of a obliterated country with a freed underclass and who's majority white population suffered a horrific demographic blow to similar levels to Paraguay, it'll be a Sisyphean task to say the least.
Harlem Hellfighters?
As for the CSA though, I can't imagine who's willing to pick up the tab on reconstruction. The Americans are firmly out, the Mexicans can probably shill out something, but i can't imagine Hughes and co. are going to let Mexico City go without at least some form of indemnity to payoff plus whatever demobilization troubles that'll inevitably occur. Britain is a viable option, but Whitehall has plenty of fires to put out over the Empire, and does London really to try and prop-up the basket case of the Confederacy? France prior to the CEW?
Honestly wouldn't surprised if you end up with a situation ala OTL's warlord-era China, with American and foreign 'legations' and troops in places like Wilmington, New Orleans, and Norfolk, American guns boats patrolling the Tennessee and Mississippi, and largely autonomous state governor's negotiating with foreign powers without input from Richmond.
States' Rights indeed.
Paraguayan history from 1870 to about 1910 or so does not lend much optimism, if that's our comparison. That's for sure.
I rather like this comparison. An unholy mix of Juan Peron, Lazaro Cardenas and CKS would definitely seem to suit Long. As I've mentioned before, I like the idea of keeping the one-term limit in place, but Long's operation could still run the show even with him as an eminence grise
Hellfighters it is.
I do think the comparison to warlord-era China is apt, especially with the decentralized nature of the Confederacy already there; Richmond could spend much of the 1920s and 30s playing whack-a-mole with various upstart governments and "Free State of Jones" situations until Long finally consolidates things and even pulls Kentucky back into the fold.
Mexico would probably have the capability to start buying influence in the CSA by the late 1920s/early 1930s when its indemnities are mostly paid off and its economy/society recovers, but I imagine they'd probably regard the more proximate Texas as their immediate playground/sphere of interest, for geographic, demographic and historical reasons (those padrones in the RGV are going to be very flush with Mexican cash and support, is all I'll say). Britain was important in financing American economies across the Hemisphere back then so being able to purchase the Confederate economy on the cheap could appeal but as you say - they'll be having their hands full for a while.
Boy, I'm going to have a lot to write on the CSA's warlord-era-esque inner workings, aren't I?
For the CSA reconstruction, I've been kinda expecting the area to be in effect to become a colony as while rebuilding the area is going to a nightmare it's still the American continent with some of the best resources in the world and tens of millions of people to exploit.
Maybe a combination of Brazil, Belgium, France and Mexico ect could each try and pay for part of it while trying to exploit to the bone and the CSA leaders play them against each other.
On the other hand their is maybe a ultra cynical extremely vile explanation, the CSA is rebuilt as a literal colony of the USA. It has very good natural resources to exploit and easily transported to the USA, it has a very exploitable ethnic divides with as long as the nobility stay on top they will agree to any deal. ''Slavery'' has ended and the US public is to tired and sick to care add in I imagine in the occupied areas information of how it's being handled will be handled by public relations ect. They don't need to treat with the same laws in the US afterall lowing the cost and most CSA leader would pay the cost in blood to rebuild their nation.
So some sort of nightmarish Manchukuo created by US businessmen and tycoons and the occupation forces could rebuild the CSA to exploit it for decades till it can last on it's own feet could be a explanation but would kinda ruin the whole morality side of the USA winning, granted I think the USA public would get moral fatigue once slavery is gone and this looks like something that could take decades at best to solve would happen but still would be very bitter.
Maybe a combination of Brazil, Belgium, France and Mexico ect could each try and pay for part of it while trying to exploit to the bone and the CSA leaders play them against each other.
On the other hand their is maybe a ultra cynical extremely vile explanation, the CSA is rebuilt as a literal colony of the USA. It has very good natural resources to exploit and easily transported to the USA, it has a very exploitable ethnic divides with as long as the nobility stay on top they will agree to any deal. ''Slavery'' has ended and the US public is to tired and sick to care add in I imagine in the occupied areas information of how it's being handled will be handled by public relations ect. They don't need to treat with the same laws in the US afterall lowing the cost and most CSA leader would pay the cost in blood to rebuild their nation.
So some sort of nightmarish Manchukuo created by US businessmen and tycoons and the occupation forces could rebuild the CSA to exploit it for decades till it can last on it's own feet could be a explanation but would kinda ruin the whole morality side of the USA winning, granted I think the USA public would get moral fatigue once slavery is gone and this looks like something that could take decades at best to solve would happen but still would be very bitter.
Yep, I mean as more a long term process, with the CSA being passed from creditor to creditor over the decades.
That is of course assuming France and Belgium are not devastated iN the CEW and just be struggling to maintain their economy and holdings than seek to expand.
Making Sense of the Senseless: The Great American War at 100
"...the First Battle of Fredericksburg was, like attempts to breach the Rappahannock half a century earlier, a remarkable failure, with twenty thousand casualties realized in the course of nine bloody hours on October 14th and a further ten the next day as probes to the west of the "contact point" were for naught. The Confederacy enjoyed a variety of advantages at Fredericksburg - it was on their soil, they had advantages of terrain, and they had fresh troops brought more frequently to the front just in time to counter an army of Americans run ragged over the past six weeks of fighting for every last foot of Northern Virginia north of the river and frequently being stymied. Once again, the fighting retreat had worked, and the counterattack towards Remington on the 16th during an American attempt to strike at Culpeper broke the US lines and forced a collapsing retreat in which nearly ten miles were given up, threatening the position across from Fredericksburg proper and the push to march eastwards down the Northern Neck, where landings were planned across the Potomac as soon as October 20th and which were thus promptly cancelled.
The Army Command Susquehanna thus subsequently regrouped on a line running roughly from Warrenton to Stafford, approximately halfway between the Occoquan and the Rappahannock. Liggett elected to reinforce this line with defensive trenches and rear fortifications and hardened supply nodes along the north bank of the Occoquan, conceding that, as far as he was concerned, the push into Virginia for the remainder of 1914 had ended with the defeat at Fredericksburg, a mere fifty miles from Richmond. The Army had succeeded in its goals for the year of pushing the Confederacy off of American soil entirely and now occupied a small but easily-supplied and very defensible corner of Virginia from which both Richmond and the Shenandoah could be credibly threatened; for much of the rest of the war, the Eastern Theater would be defined by a bloody grind over the rolling and bucolic hills between the Pamunkey and the Potomac.
Liggett's choice to rest, regroup, and resupply for a fresh push in late February from a defensible position has been frequently and openly questioned, both by his contemporaries and by modern historians, but the reality at the time was that the casualties visited upon the Army Command Susquehanna's divisions during the ten-month push from central Pennsylvania to northern Virginia were some of the most apocalyptic in the history of warfare, with entire regiments being eaten alive in artillery bombardments and machine gun fire as they exited their trenches, and were disproportionate to the losses sustained by the Confederates across from them. In comparison, despite the ten-month siege of Nashville that had begun not too long before, the Midlands and Far West were where the Americans were seeing more measurable success, having taken all of Kentucky by late November and capturing Memphis. [1] At Liggett's urging, despite his proximity to Richmond, Hughes and the War Cabinet reluctantly agreed to focus the weight of their energies on earning a decisive victory in Tennessee and ripping out the guts of the Confederate industrial heartland rather than continue to throw bodies at Virginia, all while making efforts to gradually, but perhaps more intelligently, whittle away at the Confederate position in their most important state. The Eastern Theater would be quiet for the remainder of 1914 save the occasional artillery exchange across a five-mile no man's land that informally formed between the lines, a relief and respite for men burned out and haggard by the horrors of the year behind them. There were soldiers on leave for Christmas, more access to the front lines for journalists and war photographers, and the gasp of air in the closing months of the year allowed leadership to develop a more sophisticated strategy to aim to end the war perhaps by Christmas of 1915..."
- Making Sense of the Senseless: The Great American War at 100
[1] More on this a soon-to-come mega-update
The Army Command Susquehanna thus subsequently regrouped on a line running roughly from Warrenton to Stafford, approximately halfway between the Occoquan and the Rappahannock. Liggett elected to reinforce this line with defensive trenches and rear fortifications and hardened supply nodes along the north bank of the Occoquan, conceding that, as far as he was concerned, the push into Virginia for the remainder of 1914 had ended with the defeat at Fredericksburg, a mere fifty miles from Richmond. The Army had succeeded in its goals for the year of pushing the Confederacy off of American soil entirely and now occupied a small but easily-supplied and very defensible corner of Virginia from which both Richmond and the Shenandoah could be credibly threatened; for much of the rest of the war, the Eastern Theater would be defined by a bloody grind over the rolling and bucolic hills between the Pamunkey and the Potomac.
Liggett's choice to rest, regroup, and resupply for a fresh push in late February from a defensible position has been frequently and openly questioned, both by his contemporaries and by modern historians, but the reality at the time was that the casualties visited upon the Army Command Susquehanna's divisions during the ten-month push from central Pennsylvania to northern Virginia were some of the most apocalyptic in the history of warfare, with entire regiments being eaten alive in artillery bombardments and machine gun fire as they exited their trenches, and were disproportionate to the losses sustained by the Confederates across from them. In comparison, despite the ten-month siege of Nashville that had begun not too long before, the Midlands and Far West were where the Americans were seeing more measurable success, having taken all of Kentucky by late November and capturing Memphis. [1] At Liggett's urging, despite his proximity to Richmond, Hughes and the War Cabinet reluctantly agreed to focus the weight of their energies on earning a decisive victory in Tennessee and ripping out the guts of the Confederate industrial heartland rather than continue to throw bodies at Virginia, all while making efforts to gradually, but perhaps more intelligently, whittle away at the Confederate position in their most important state. The Eastern Theater would be quiet for the remainder of 1914 save the occasional artillery exchange across a five-mile no man's land that informally formed between the lines, a relief and respite for men burned out and haggard by the horrors of the year behind them. There were soldiers on leave for Christmas, more access to the front lines for journalists and war photographers, and the gasp of air in the closing months of the year allowed leadership to develop a more sophisticated strategy to aim to end the war perhaps by Christmas of 1915..."
- Making Sense of the Senseless: The Great American War at 100
[1] More on this a soon-to-come mega-update
Depends on how quickly CSA run out of manpower, Richmond is essentially Confederate's Paris, its game over for Dixie once it fall.
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