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Expect that the CSAs armies are a lot closer to the US industrial centres, than Japan's ever had a prayer of getting. So IMHO strategically speaking striking first is the correct choice compared to taking an entirely defensive posture. Means their chances of winning are 10%, rather than 1%.

Agreed - it's actually the best strategy for them in the situation that they've boxed themselves into. They no doubt believe that if they capture DC the US will have to do the honorable thing and surrender and, even if not, they may be able to capture the government and FORCE them to surrender (I wonder if a Texan came up with this plan, because it very much would be "pulling a Santa Anna"). And even if ALL of that doesn't happen, they can at least occupy Maryland, be within striking distance of Philly and possibly raid into Indiana and Ohio, delivering such a huge morale defeat to the Union that their "weak, cowardly, materialisti, mongreloid population will be begging the government for peace." It's the perfect plan based on 19th century honor, grossly overestimating Confederate abilities, and utterly underestimating their opponents, with just enough 'realism' thrown in to convince those on the fence. It is, in other words, the PERFECT Southern plan!

Of course, though the CSA certainly views itself as the aggreived party, it's belligerence, and it's dedication to slavery, means it's already lost the international public relations battle; and that's something it was really going to need in the long wrong. Oops!
 
The Central Front: The area situated between the great Appalachian and Mississippi natural barriers is somewhat comparable to OTL's Eastern Front, with the CSA playing Russia in the defense of her heartland. It favors mobility, especially in Kentucky, where the Confederate Army may find itself hard-pressed to defend a 400-mile frontline. The quadrisecting river system, defined by the Ohio, Cumberland, Tennessee, and Mississippi, also favors offensive operations in either a northerly or southerly direction. Confederate strategy in this theater is initially defensive, centered-upon the fortification complex of Smithland-Paducah-Columbus in southwest Kentucky, with the object of preventing U.S. naval control of the Tennessee, Cumberland, and Lower Mississippi, which precipitated strategic disaster in 1862. Nonetheless, these positions are vulnerable to turning-movement. The Union Navy probably secures control of the Ohio during late 1913, whilst preparing bases at Cincinnati, Evansville, and Cairo for the first great movements in April 1914. Coordinated drives from the former two cities would threaten Louisville with encirclement. The Evansville force could utilize the Green River for its penetration of the thin Southern defensive line, isolating Owensboro and threatening Bowling Green, and the Cincinnati armies could shield their flanks with the Kentucky and Licking Rivers in their advance against Frankfort and Lexington. This offensive would inaugurate the first major crisis of the War for the South, its 'Great Retreat', forcing strategic withdrawal from the majority of Kentucky to the line of the Cumberland, setting the stage for further invasion of Tennessee and the turning of Paducah.

By late 1914, we know Nashville has become a 'front city', and likely falls by year's end, possibly alongside Clarksville and Smithland, confirming failure to defend the Cumberland. The occupation of the Nashville basin forms a veritable salient between Confederate-controlled southwest and southeast Kentucky. This probably coincides with an amphibious attempt against Columbus on the Mississippi. If that fortress falls, Paducah would be too isolated to hold, forcing withdrawal into West Tennessee (which possesses several defensible tributaries). Once more the Southern armies withdraw, forming another defensive line on the Duck River and the Highland Rim, shielding Alabama and East Tennessee. It is at this point, in early 1915, the Confederate Army may attempt a major counteroffensive in the vein of Brusilov (possibly to reduce pressure on Taneytown), resulting in severe fighting in the vicinity of Spring Hill, Franklin, and Murfreesboro, producing major casualties on both sides. The struggle for Tennessee would ultimately be an attritional one. The Cumberland Plateau may resemble OTL's Italian Front, resulting in Union command deciding to capture Chattanooga and Knoxville from the rear via turning-movement in the Tennessee Valley. Ultimately, however, I would expect the War to conclude in northwest Georgia due to stalemate owing to the narrowing of the frontline, highland and heavily-wooded terrain, the river system, and the respective lengths of communication and supply lines. As for the Mississippi Campaign, I am not too sure currently.
 
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I get why this war starts in September and it makes narrative sense but man is the CSA kinda screwed they'll only have 6-8 weeks of effective campaign season until winter sets in.

I mean, they're screwed anyway but if war started in say, July they'd have that much more time to capture more territory and possibly force a settlement.
 
I get why this war starts in September and it makes narrative sense but man is the CSA kinda screwed they'll only have 6-8 weeks of effective campaign season until winter sets in.

I mean, they're screwed anyway but if war started in say, July they'd have that much more time to capture more territory and possibly force a settlement.

I had a brief memory and wanted to look something up. And sure enough, November of 1913 was ROUGH in the Great Lakes region. Deadliest storms in the area in recorded history. Which is definitely an issue is the US is relying on the lakes to transport materials away from the front. Especially if, as I suspect, the US relocate their capitol inland to Chicago for at least the duration of the war

Having said that, I wonder if the CSA won't keep pushing into at least early winter. They're gonna bog down sooner than later; but they really need to keep striking while the iron is hot. Especially if they can take advantage of the disruptions thst storm is going to cause.

 
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Can't wait for D.W. Griffith to become the South's chief propagandist...
Independent of his racism-mongering and pro-KKK viewpoints, he's a huge deal in film. With him staying South there's a good chance UA isn't formed - which would have huge butterflies in Hollywood to say the least
 
There will be places in the CSA that resemble Baghdad c. 1402.
Damn that is... quite the analogy haha
Regarding the undoubtedly vast North American theaters of operation, there are likely to be four classified in that arena. Namely the Eastern Front, Central Front, Western Theater, and Lower Seaboard Theater, with the latter two further featuring minor campaigns. Considering geography and economics, general strategy is unlikely to be radically-different from OTL's War Between the States. For United States, victory over the South would involve the blockade and capture of seaports from Norfolk to Brownsville, the seizure of the commercial Mississippi River and industrial Nashville-Chattanooga-Atlanta corridors, the liberation of territory north of the Potomac and potential advance against Richmond by either land or sea, as well as the military emancipation of slaves. I think many officers would recognize the primacy of the Central Front in regards to war-winning potential. For the Confederacy, once it becomes clear that the initial offensive campaign and bombardment of Harrisburg will not result in negotiation, adoption of an attritional defense in the spirit of Falkenhayn becomes likely. Modern military technology, the river systems present for defense-in-depth, superior lateral interior lines, and strategic depths for vital war industries do provide the South with certain advantages to off-set the gross numerical imbalance. The gradual (more so in the case of the latter) losses of Kentucky (coal) and Tennessee (iron) over the course of 1914-15 will result in the relocation of manufactories and mills south of the Tennessee River ('The Rhine of the South'). It would be interesting to see an older Henry W. Grady succeed James De Bow as the South's leading industrial editor-promoter. As in IOTL, the Augusta-Milledgeville-Macon-Columbus-Montgomery-Selma-Tuscaloosa line should form the Confederacy's 'industrial belt'. As for OTL Birmingham, I think Confederate independence would have resulted in the trending growth of Selma as the 'Pittsburgh of the South' (Gorgas himself stated much of the same). Atlanta and North Georgia may constitute a 'little Ruhr'. The Piedmont of the Carolinas should also be mill-heavy. And, of course, there is the Richmond-Petersburg-Lynchburg manufacturing-triangle in Virginia dominated by the star Tredegar firm. Even the vehement agriculturalist President Smith, under Cabinet, Congressional and Army pressure, would recognize organized industrial effort as necessary for Southern national survival in a long war, no matter how extraordinarily quarrelsome and dismissive his personality in relation to the greater government.

The Eastern Front: This theater is most likely to resemble OTL's attritional and mobility-hampered Western Front due to the proximity of armies to major population/industrial centers, the relatively narrow geographic space available for maneuver, excellent defensive terrain, as well as the political and public interest invested in the respective national capitals. It will likely be confined by the Susquehanna River to the north, the Chesapeake and greater Atlantic to the east, the Cape Fear River to the south, and the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains to the west. We know that the opening campaign of the War results in the Confederate Army executing a decisive turning-movement against the fortifications of Washington by marching against Harrisburg through the mountain-protected Shenandoah and Cumberland Valleys, forcing the U.S. Government to hastily evacuate to Philadelphia(?) and the Army to withdraw and regroup behind the right-bank of the wide Susquehanna, which is rendered the frontline as Confederate forces consolidate and organize their occupation and military administration (à la Belgium in 1914) of Maryland and south-central Pennsylvania at the onset of the harvest season. The Richmond General Staff further expects the capture of Harrisburg to sever rail communications between Northeast and Northwest as well as providing a base for advance against Philadelphia, and the Pennsylvania state capital becomes the target of extensive artillery bombardment (à la Leningrad in 1943). Union officers, with their definite naval advantages in gunboats, transports, and interior lines, would alternatively contemplate amphibious landings against Havre de Grace and Wrightsville in order to recapture York, which in turn would force Confederate withdrawal further up the Cumberland as far as Shippensburg, setting the stage for further drives south to the Potomac. Generally, however, I would expect the winter of 1913-14 to be relatively quiet while both belligerents continue to mobilize men and resources, reinforcing in preparation for the spring campaigning season. It would a different story in terms of naval operations, however.

In order to properly initiate offensive operations against the Confederacy, naval superiority is necessary for the North. We know that instead of attempting to blockade the Capes, the principal Confederate Atlantic fleet based at Norfolk sorties against Baltimore Harbor, planning to further venture up the Susquehanna to support Army operations. A subsequent U.S. Navy counteroffensive in the Chesapeake could just as well see that Southern fleet defeated and forced to retire to Baltimore, where it will be forced to scuttle should the city be recaptured by U.S. forces. Nevertheless, Northern naval superiority in the Chesapeake is vital in terms of seizing the initiative in the East, although the Hampton Roads area should be too extensively-fortified for operations against Norfolk, leaving the shipyard there under Confederate control for further production of war vessels (submarines would be interesting). It would also permit U.S. forces to conduct their own turning-movements by penetrating the Potomac, Rappahannock, York, and James Rivers, although these avenues are notoriously underdeveloped and swampy, threatening disease and the same sort of 'bottling-up' witnessed at Bermuda Hundred and later, Gallipoli.

You may also see U.S. Marines land at and secure the Outer Banks of North Carolina, resulting in Confederate reinforcement and fortification of Roanoke Island in order to protect Richmond's rail communications with the Carolinas and Georgia.

Late 1914 may just as well see the Confederate Army reduced to a new defensive line centered upon Gettysburg.
Damn, this is a really remarkable and well-thought out post. Also aligns largely with what I have planned for the 1913-14 cycle, at least
I see the CSA is borrowing Japan, though it is to be expected. This will assure everyone and future generations that the U.S.A was the victim of aggression. And it will make their victory all the sweeter.
I've tipped my hand a bit with the verbiage in some of the book updates but yeah, this is definitely a "victor writing history" case, at least in how the US perceives it (also why some of the fuckups on the US side get off easy)
Striking a week before the US is ready....
Wow. Ballsy...
Expect that the CSAs armies are a lot closer to the US industrial centres, than Japan's ever had a prayer of getting. So IMHO strategically speaking striking first is the correct choice compared to taking an entirely defensive posture. Means their chances of winning are 10%, rather than 1%.
Yeah, its a gamble they kind of have to make. Plan HHH is reliant on the Confederacy largely setting the pace of battle rather than letting that be dictated to them, after all.
Agreed - it's actually the best strategy for them in the situation that they've boxed themselves into. They no doubt believe that if they capture DC the US will have to do the honorable thing and surrender and, even if not, they may be able to capture the government and FORCE them to surrender (I wonder if a Texan came up with this plan, because it very much would be "pulling a Santa Anna"). And even if ALL of that doesn't happen, they can at least occupy Maryland, be within striking distance of Philly and possibly raid into Indiana and Ohio, delivering such a huge morale defeat to the Union that their "weak, cowardly, materialisti, mongreloid population will be begging the government for peace." It's the perfect plan based on 19th century honor, grossly overestimating Confederate abilities, and utterly underestimating their opponents, with just enough 'realism' thrown in to convince those on the fence. It is, in other words, the PERFECT Southern plan!

Of course, though the CSA certainly views itself as the aggreived party, it's belligerence, and it's dedication to slavery, means it's already lost the international public relations battle; and that's something it was really going to need in the long wrong. Oops!
Their one advantage, of course, is that European powers that seek to trade with it will probably be less keen on a US blockade than in the ACW since its no longer an "internal matter"
I get why this war starts in September and it makes narrative sense but man is the CSA kinda screwed they'll only have 6-8 weeks of effective campaign season until winter sets in.

I mean, they're screwed anyway but if war started in say, July they'd have that much more time to capture more territory and possibly force a settlement.
TBH I probably dragged out the run-up to war from the Treaty of Havana expired to our point of "shots fired" a bit longer than is realistic (it was just over a month from Sarajevo to mobilization by the Great Powers, after all) but whatever. Originally I was going to have the DoW/sneak attack happen on September 11th but thought that was way too on the nose and bordered on disrespectful... so I split the difference between that and Pearl Harbor, which happened on the 7th.
I had a brief memory and wanted to look something up. And sure enough, November of 1913 was ROUGH in the Great Lakes region. Deadliest storms in the area in recorded history. Which is definitely an issue is the US is relying on the lakes to transport materials away from the front. Especially if, as I suspect, the US relocate their capitol inland to Chicago for at least the duration of the war

Having said that, I wonder if the CSA won't keep pushing into at least early winter. They're gonna bog down sooner than later; but they really need to keep striking while the iron is hot. Especially if they can take advantage of the disruptions thst storm is going to cause.

Had no idea this was a thing but that's going into the narrative from a logistics standpoint. Thanks!
The Central Front: The area situated between the great Appalachian and Mississippi natural barriers is somewhat comparable to OTL's Eastern Front, with the CSA playing Russia in the defense of her heartland. It favors mobility, especially in Kentucky, where the Confederate Army may find itself hard-pressed to defend a 400-mile frontline. The quadrisecting river system, defined by the Ohio, Cumberland, Tennessee, and Mississippi, also favors offensive operations in either a northerly or southerly direction. Confederate strategy in this theater is initially defensive, centered-upon the fortification complex of Smithland-Paducah-Columbus in southwest Kentucky, with the object of preventing U.S. naval control of the Tennessee, Cumberland, and Lower Mississippi, which precipitated strategic disaster in 1862. Nonetheless, these positions are vulnerable to turning-movement. The Union Navy probably secures control of the Ohio during late 1913, whilst preparing bases at Cincinnati, Evansville, and Cairo for the first great movements in April 1914. Coordinated drives from the former two cities would threaten Louisville with encirclement. The Evansville force could utilize the Green River for its penetration of the thin Southern defensive line, isolating Owensboro and threatening Bowling Green, and the Cincinnati armies could shield their flanks with the Kentucky and Licking Rivers in their advance against Frankfort and Lexington. This offensive would inaugurate the first major crisis of the War for the South, its 'Great Retreat', forcing strategic withdrawal from the majority of Kentucky to the line of the Cumberland, setting the stage for further invasion of Tennessee and the turning of Paducah.

By late 1914, we know Nashville has become a 'front city', and likely falls by year's end, possibly alongside Clarksville and Smithland, confirming failure to defend the Cumberland. The occupation of the Nashville basin forms a veritable salient between Confederate-controlled southwest and southeast Kentucky. This probably coincides with an amphibious attempt against Columbus on the Mississippi. If that fortress falls, Paducah would be too isolated to hold, forcing withdrawal into West Tennessee (which possesses several defensible tributaries). Once more the Southern armies withdraw, forming another defensive line on the Duck River and the Highland Rim, shielding Alabama and East Tennessee. It is at this point, in early 1915, the Confederate Army may attempt a major counteroffensive in the vein of Brusilov (possibly to reduce pressure on Gettysburg), resulting in severe fighting in the vicinity of Spring Hill, Franklin, and Murfreesboro, producing major casualties on both sides. The struggle for Tennessee would ultimately be an attritional one. The Cumberland Plateau may resemble OTL's Italian Front, resulting in Union command deciding to capture Chattanooga and Knoxville from the rear via turning-movement in the Tennessee Valley. Ultimately, however, I would expect the War to conclude in northwest Georgia due to stalemate owing to the narrowing of the frontline, highland and heavily-wooded terrain, the river system, and the respective lengths of communication and supply lines. As for the Mississippi Campaign, I am not too sure currently.
I like your thinking here and I'm pretty sure you're a mind-reader because this is a really good breakdown of some of the strategic considerations to come that I've pondered. Some things in here are even almost verbatim to some of my outlines but I'll keep what exactly a secret ;)
Can't wait for D.W. Griffith to become the South's chief propagandist...
Independent of his racism-mongering and pro-KKK viewpoints, he's a huge deal in film. With him staying South there's a good chance UA isn't formed - which would have huge butterflies in Hollywood to say the least
Now this is a great idea...
 
I get why this war starts in September and it makes narrative sense but man is the CSA kinda screwed they'll only have 6-8 weeks of effective campaign season until winter sets in.

I mean, they're screwed anyway but if war started in say, July they'd have that much more time to capture more territory and possibly force a settlement.
In Appalachia and west, the fighting will likely slow down. But weather in the MidAtlantic region can vary.

It looks like Philadelphia Nov 1913 was relatively mild and didn't often dip below freezing until mid-December, with warm days near 70 late into the month. Certainly not the best weather for Southern constitutions, but not 'marching on Moscow'.

MonthDayYearDaily High (F)Daily Low (F)
11119135137
11219135637
11319135943
11419136047
11519135440
11619136240
11719136339
11819136548
11919136341
111019134435
111119134030
111219134734
111319135840
111419136242
111519134438
111619134337
111719135039
111819136240
111919137151
112019137456
112119137154
112219136550
112319137250
112419135243
112519135038
112619135443
112719134935
112819134940
112919135143
113019134341

 
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Had no idea this was a thing but that's going into the narrative from a logistics standpoint. Thanks!

I wasn't sure if you were aware of that storm (I'd honestly forgotten about it, until the tickle of a memory in the back of my mind struck) but I figured you'd be interested in it all the same; it's going to be a huge logistical issue and also a huge deal for the civilian side of the war - several cities were without power and completely cut off for days.

Though we know that the United States is going to win in the long run, I suspect it's going to take them a while to get their shit together and this is just the sort of bad luck that plays into the early stumbles of the war (and would also play into Confederate Propaganda - "Look, our cause is just, even God himself has turned against the Union and works in our favor!"). For some reason, not to show my utter nerdiness and fandoms, I am kind of imagining the early War Effort as being overseen by poor Waspinator "Ooooh, why does Universe HATE Waspinator and the Union!" LOL :D
 
I had a brief memory and wanted to look something up. And sure enough, November of 1913 was ROUGH in the Great Lakes region. Deadliest storms in the area in recorded history. Which is definitely an issue is the US is relying on the lakes to transport materials away from the front. Especially if, as I suspect, the US relocate their capitol inland to Chicago for at least the duration of the war

Having said that, I wonder if the CSA won't keep pushing into at least early winter. They're gonna bog down sooner than later; but they really need to keep striking while the iron is hot. Especially if they can take advantage of the disruptions thst storm is going to cause.

And every man knew, as the captain did too
T'was the witch of November come stealin'
 
Damn that is... quite the analogy haha

Damn, this is a really remarkable and well-thought out post. Also aligns largely with what I have planned for the 1913-14 cycle, at least

I've tipped my hand a bit with the verbiage in some of the book updates but yeah, this is definitely a "victor writing history" case, at least in how the US perceives it (also why some of the fuckups on the US side get off easy)


Yeah, its a gamble they kind of have to make. Plan HHH is reliant on the Confederacy largely setting the pace of battle rather than letting that be dictated to them, after all.

Their one advantage, of course, is that European powers that seek to trade with it will probably be less keen on a US blockade than in the ACW since its no longer an "internal matter"

TBH I probably dragged out the run-up to war from the Treaty of Havana expired to our point of "shots fired" a bit longer than is realistic (it was just over a month from Sarajevo to mobilization by the Great Powers, after all) but whatever. Originally I was going to have the DoW/sneak attack happen on September 11th but thought that was way too on the nose and bordered on disrespectful... so I split the difference between that and Pearl Harbor, which happened on the 7th.

Had no idea this was a thing but that's going into the narrative from a logistics standpoint. Thanks!

I like your thinking here and I'm pretty sure you're a mind-reader because this is a really good breakdown of some of the strategic considerations to come that I've pondered. Some things in here are even almost verbatim to some of my outlines but I'll keep what exactly a secret ;)


Now this is a great idea...
There is at least one way in which the South won't look like Baghdad 1402, there will be a *much* higher gender imbalance than Bagdhad. I expect that the percentage of women killed out of the general population will be *relatively* small. IMO, I'd expect the treatment of women iTTL to be somewhere between OTL Civil War and OTL WWII. Women can be killed if they are shooting at troops, otherwise no. There is probably a higher risk of black women getting raped by CSA soldiers in the area which they control, but other than the Harrisburg/Cumberland/Chesapeake Triangle (which is going to need a name in story. :) ) and maybe the Maryland Eastern Shore that doesn't cover much. In this regard I expect the Mexicans to be more professional than the Confederates.


Given this, I wonder in what year Kentucky legalizes Polygamy...

This is something that has confused me for a while, you talk about 9/9 splitting the difference between 9/11 and Pearl Harbor. Pearly Harbor was *December 7th* not *September 7* (I know there is no guarantee that we are living in the Same TL, but it is my guess. :) )

In regards to the HHH plan, do the confederates realize that any war that goes into year 3 is one which they can't win?

Also, by the time the Union *doesn't* have to consider the "Eastern" and "Central" Fronts to be separate fronts, they've got Armies running around looking for the highest ranking CSA goverment member who can surrender to them. (At that point VA, NC, KY, and TN have all (or mostly) fallen)
 
In Appalachia and west, the fighting will likely slow down. But weather in the MidAtlantic region can vary.

It looks like Philadelphia Nov 1913 was relatively mild and didn't often dip below freezing until mid-December, with warm days near 70 late into the month. Certainly not the best weather for Southern constitutions, but not 'marching on Moscow'.

MonthDayYearDaily High (F)Daily Low (F)
11119135137
11219135637
11319135943
11419136047
11519135440
11619136240
11719136339
11819136548
11919136341
111019134435
111119134030
111219134734
111319135840
111419136242
111519134438
111619134337
111719135039
111819136240
111919137151
112019137456
112119137154
112219136550
112319137250
112419135243
112519135038
112619135443
112719134935
112819134940
112919135143
113019134341


Oooh, that's great info! I wonder what the weather itself was like (rainy, dry, etc) because muddy terrain would actually screw an advance up far more than cold, yet frozen, terrain
 
Before the Storm: The Crises of 1913
"...simultaneously. It is of course true that the United States was engaging in its own mobilization on precisely the same day, but what may seem like an academic distinction was hardly one. The Confederate war plans - dubbed "HHH" by the Army Staff Office for well over a decade - necessitated a rapid mobilization and while the structure of the Confederate military and the realities of a war vote from Congress being a constitutional necessity were very similar to the circumstances north of the Ohio, this necessity had been built into various redundancies and preparations for years. "Preliminary" and "partial" may seem similar, but what the Confederate military was allowed to do was stage a "preliminary" mobilization of state militias with only the permission of the President and the requisite state governor, which Smith had granted as early as the 3rd. On the 4th, as Hughes and his Cabinet met in Washington only a hundred miles away, this meant that the Confederacy had already gathered key cadres of the Virginia State Militia at its deployment point in Harrisonburg and had routed necessary locomotives to Fredericksburg and Winchester to rapidly move those forces, as well as those of mobilized North Carolinians, northwards.

The key meeting, then, was on the afternoon of the 4th, after Smith had elected to withdraw his acceptance of the September Ultimatum. This move was understood on both sides of the Ohio to presage war; Smith, in a note to General Scott, said as much, informing him: "Now that we have chosen to reject the Yankee demands, we must steel our spines for the storm to come." Full phased mobilization orders were signed and countersigned, allowing the activation of the deep reserves available to various state militias rather than just active duty servicemen; what was needed now was a declaration of war, which would authorize HHH and allow the Confederate military to begin accepting enlistments, placing state militias under Army commanders and tapping its own reserves. As nearly every man in the Confederacy served in their state militia as a form of social duty, and the period in which they stood as an available reserve lasted for ten years after the end of their brief enlistment, this meant that effectively nearly every single white man in the Confederacy between the ages of sixteen and twenty-eight, or thereabouts, was in state militia records and could be reached. This was a gargantuan manpower advantage that Richmond enjoyed, and they knew it.

At four in the afternoon, Smith greeted the two key Senators - Tillman of South Carolina, his mentor, and Martin of Virginia, his chief antagonist and rival - as well as the new Speaker, Heflin. There were no Cabinet officers present, for none were needed; knowledge that this meeting even occurred is largely only due to the Heritage House clerk, the testimony of two house slaves who heard much of the conversation, and Tillman's posthumous diaries, which shed tremendous light on the proceedings. Seated in the drawing room drinking mint juleps, Smith explained his decision to revoke the acceptance of terms, for which he received congratulations from Heflin. Tillman outlined the likely consequences of the action, not to condemn but rather to make sure everybody was in agreement on what exactly it meant; Martin concurred that the United States would have little choice but to mobilize and declare war, noting "even a Yankee will see this as an insult." Smith was angered at the clear implication from the Bourbon leader that his move was rash and ill-considered, but Tillman kept the peace. "Pitchfork Ben," having lost much of his fiery demagogy and hypnotic power of rhetoric in age and to two strokes, assured Smith that "the confrontation we have braced for has arrived, and history will congratulate you for having the bravery to end the dance and face it head-on and finally settle the matter." Smith was placated by this and then noted that Scott had begun mobilizations that would continue over the weekend, and that he figured that late Monday evening, the combined forces of the Virginia and North Carolina State Militias would be moved surreptitiously to within a fortifications network southeast of Martinsburg designed specifically for HHH's implementation. Heflin suggested declaring war the next day, Friday, and delivering the declaration to the American embassy on Saturday morning, not wanting to delay matters.

Tillman had a different suggestion. With the United States having a considerable naval advantage, it was better to secure Mexican acquiescence to war over the weekend, ready vessels in the Chesapeake for combat, and then align the war vote with when the preliminary mobilization was complete, late on Monday night. Smith was initially compelled to follow Heflin's suggestion - indeed, he had brought Congressional leaders to Heritage House specifically to ask them to declare war the next day - but elected to listen to his fellow South Carolinian and hear him out. Tillman's next suggestion is what is now known as the infamous "Heritage House Agreement," which was to time the delivery of the declaration of war to the US embassy at the immediate time a surprise attack from the Shenandoah Valley into Maryland and an attack on Baltimore Harbor by the Confederate Atlantic Squadron were executed. Smith, concerned that some Congressmen might get cold feet over the weekend, asked if Tillman was sure of that timing; the old Senator reportedly smiled and uttered his notorious words, "We can count noses in the Senate, Ed."

Following the agreement, Tillman asked Heflin to imply to some of his more loose-lipped colleagues that a war vote might be held as soon as tomorrow, hoping that that news would reach Washington, as Smith met with Scott and other military officers to inform them of the new plan. HHH was to be executed at 5:30 AM sharp on Tuesday, September 9th. Meanwhile, the rumor of a war vote on Friday did in fact reach Washington, and Ambassador Beveridge made plans to leave Richmond on Sunday evening; when Friday came and went without such a vote, the assumption in Washington became that the Confederacy may have been reconsidering, and its original timetables remained unchanged, but Beveridge nonetheless bizarrely elected to stick to his and return to Washington for consultations [1], thus not being in Richmond on Monday evening when Congress gathered there after an uncomfortably quiet, tense and eerie weekend when everyone could feel the world was about to change.

Ironically, Beveridge's train broke down near Fredericksburg; had it moved ahead a few extra miles when it stopped working, the Ambassador may have seen the artillery pieces and soldiers' camps around the city that would the next night be rapidly moved up to the Arlington Heights. As it were, Beveridge and his fellow passengers sat for three hours next to a horse farm south of the Rappahannock in the dead of the night, and by the time he was at the White House the next day to discuss the situation with President Hughes, the Confederate Congress had met to make their fateful vote..."

- Before the Storm: The Crises of 1913

[1] That he didn't dip out on 9/1 is probably unrealistic, to be honest, considering diplomatic protocols of the time
 
And every man knew, as the captain did too
T'was the witch of November come stealin'
Cold dry air grabbing (relatively) warm water vapor can generate some *nasty* storm.

With war with the Confederacy , alot of US Grain is going to have to be shipped out using the Lakes. That will probably make the number of ships sunken *worse*. Winter of 1913 isn't going to be a fun time anywhere in Europe that imports US Grain. It actually appears that more of the wrecks were on the Canadian side of the lake (with the south end of Canadian Lake Huron the *worst*. Detroit is going to be rescuing ships and Cleveland is going to be under a *lot* of snow. So the Confederates *and* mother nature are going to be trying to break the US Rail system...
 
In Appalachia and west, the fighting will likely slow down. But weather in the MidAtlantic region can vary.

It looks like Philadelphia Nov 1913 was relatively mild and didn't often dip below freezing until mid-December, with warm days near 70 late into the month. Certainly not the best weather for Southern constitutions, but not 'marching on Moscow'.

MonthDayYearDaily High (F)Daily Low (F)
11119135137
11219135637
11319135943
11419136047
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This is terrific info, thank you!
I wasn't sure if you were aware of that storm (I'd honestly forgotten about it, until the tickle of a memory in the back of my mind struck) but I figured you'd be interested in it all the same; it's going to be a huge logistical issue and also a huge deal for the civilian side of the war - several cities were without power and completely cut off for days.

Though we know that the United States is going to win in the long run, I suspect it's going to take them a while to get their shit together and this is just the sort of bad luck that plays into the early stumbles of the war (and would also play into Confederate Propaganda - "Look, our cause is just, even God himself has turned against the Union and works in our favor!"). For some reason, not to show my utter nerdiness and fandoms, I am kind of imagining the early War Effort as being overseen by poor Waspinator "Ooooh, why does Universe HATE Waspinator and the Union!" LOL :D
I was not; the only big historical Midwestern ice storm I'm particularly aware of is 1999
There is at least one way in which the South won't look like Baghdad 1402, there will be a *much* higher gender imbalance than Bagdhad. I expect that the percentage of women killed out of the general population will be *relatively* small. IMO, I'd expect the treatment of women iTTL to be somewhere between OTL Civil War and OTL WWII. Women can be killed if they are shooting at troops, otherwise no. There is probably a higher risk of black women getting raped by CSA soldiers in the area which they control, but other than the Harrisburg/Cumberland/Chesapeake Triangle (which is going to need a name in story. :) ) and maybe the Maryland Eastern Shore that doesn't cover much. In this regard I expect the Mexicans to be more professional than the Confederates.


Given this, I wonder in what year Kentucky legalizes Polygamy...

This is something that has confused me for a while, you talk about 9/9 splitting the difference between 9/11 and Pearl Harbor. Pearly Harbor was *December 7th* not *September 7* (I know there is no guarantee that we are living in the Same TL, but it is my guess. :) )

In regards to the HHH plan, do the confederates realize that any war that goes into year 3 is one which they can't win?

Also, by the time the Union *doesn't* have to consider the "Eastern" and "Central" Fronts to be separate fronts, they've got Armies running around looking for the highest ranking CSA goverment member who can surrender to them. (At that point VA, NC, KY, and TN have all (or mostly) fallen)
The Mexican soldiery will definitely have a different level of professionalism that will not be forgotten by the US and be a big reason why they come out pretty clean in the end. As for Confederate women, well, there's always emigration (and being war brides! Because mankind is awful.)

Haha I meant more the day than the month - I do know that Pearl Harbor is 12/7! I've been to the memorial, incidentally, which is definitely worth doing. Eeriest place I've been, only Dachau was more uncomfortable

The Confederates are operating under the assumption that the "bespectacled clerks" will fold long before then, because they're pretty arrogant in their war planning presumptions.
 
illman's next suggestion is what is now known as the infamous "Heritage House Agreement," which was to time the delivery of the declaration of war to the US embassy at the immediate time a surprise attack from the Shenandoah Valley into Maryland and an attack on Baltimore Harbor by the Confederate Atlantic Squadron were executed. Smith, concerned that some Congressmen might get cold feet over the weekend, asked if Tillman was sure of that timing; the old Senator reportedly smiled and uttered his notorious words, "We can count noses in the Senate, Ed."
Huh, what could go wrong here? But on the flip side, at least there won't be a language barrier.
 
Bound for Bloodshed: The Road to the Great American War
"...the votes were held simultaneously, on both ends of the Capitol. In two hours of floor debate in the House, a few Congressmen argued in favor of letting Hoke Smith attempt to negotiate one last settlement, but were largely drowned out by their colleagues' jeers; in the end, only two voted no, while six abstained. In the Senate, meanwhile, the vote was entirely unanimous, with only the most minute debate on the matter, and a number of Senators giving self-indulgent speeches on their reasoning for their vote. By eleven o' clock at night, both votes were done; Tillman spoke last on the floor of the Senate, stating: "This shall be the vote that is recalled when it is asked in the future what was done to preserve the white race and its civilization; that at the hour, our generation answered the call, and rescued Anglo-Saxonism from itself." When he cast his final vote, a fait accompli, to make it 24-0, the whole Senate chamber broke out into applause; they had already heard the raucous reaction from across the building when the House completed their proceedings. The clerks of both chambers brought the instruments of declaration down the street to Heritage House, where they were countersigned five minutes to midnight by President Smith, who held up the documents proudly and handed the pen to General Hugh Scott as a souvenir. Reporters from the galleries rushed to their printing presses to get morning editions out, with the headlines already written: WAR!

By the time Confederate citizens awoke to the jubilant announcements throughout their country that Congress had declared war on the United States, the Atlantic Squadron's infamous attack on Baltimore Harbor would have already begun, and the 1st Army would be fanning out in four "scythes" into Maryland and Pennsylvania from Martinsburg and Harpers Ferry. Cheers, fireworks and street festivals erupted spontaneously; hundreds of thousands of men swarmed state militia bureaus to report for duty as reservists, and even many who had not served sought out recruitment offices. The chance to punch the damned Yankee in the mouth was an exhilarating feeling, and some were joking about having Christmas dinner in New York, so fast would American lines melt before them. The day to celebrate was now; the day to mourn would come, sooner than they thought...

...on the evening of September 8th, the Confederate Congress had declared very simply: "Resolved: the Confederate States of America declares a state of war upon the United States of America." The road to the hour in which those sixteen words were written out and voted upon with barely an utter of protest was long and winding, beginning approximately twenty years prior. It had wound a curious path, through the jungles of Central America, the warm blue Caribbean Sea, and along the mighty Mississippi. It had led here, to the most destructive war in North American history and one of the 20th century's great conflicts; but it had not been an inevitable way, a road foreordained. It was paved with poor choices, made of simple mistakes, marked by wounded pride and displays of misplaced honor. Yes, the road to this conflict had been long, but it had passed many a crossroads those traveling upon it had chosen not to take. It was a road made by men, in all their flaws. And traveling that road from its beginning along all its circuitous turns suggests that just perhaps, the republics and empires of the Americas were not at all bound for bloodshed - they had instead chosen it."

- Bound for Bloodshed: The Road to the Great American War

(And with that we say goodbye to the textbook I've enjoyed writing entries from the most, my own little Sleepwalkers homage. This last graph was meant to evoke Clark's closing line "for they were the sleepwalkers, not knowing the hell they had just unleashed." I hope you've all enjoyed Bound for Bloodshed, which kicked off at the 1893 Columbian Exposition, as much as I've enjoyed writing excerpts from it).
 
Cold dry air grabbing (relatively) warm water vapor can generate some *nasty* storm.

With war with the Confederacy , alot of US Grain is going to have to be shipped out using the Lakes. That will probably make the number of ships sunken *worse*. Winter of 1913 isn't going to be a fun time anywhere in Europe that imports US Grain. It actually appears that more of the wrecks were on the Canadian side of the lake (with the south end of Canadian Lake Huron the *worst*. Detroit is going to be rescuing ships and Cleveland is going to be under a *lot* of snow. So the Confederates *and* mother nature are going to be trying to break the US Rail system...

Oh, I suspect it's going to be quite a bit worse - any not just grain shipments, but steel shipments for Duluth, Copper, Iron, Lumber, etc are likely going to end up at the bottom of Superior, Michigan and Huron. Chicago was also bettered pretty badly (there are some great pics of the docks) but it seems to have escaped far better other other port cities at the time. Detroit and Cleveland are going to be a MESS
 
And with that, ladies and gentlemen, we have arrived at the Great American War.
Nice job laying the groundwork and sticking the landing. I bitch and moan about this timeline's results sometimes but it is never because you do a sloppy or half-assed job telling stories and making your historical figures fully human instead of two-dimensional caricatures.
 
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