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As i don't give a shit the dixies, he dying of yellow fever was nice, was as anticlimatic should have been, still very nice series of update, seems the door is open to stabilize cuba and spain soon
 
Great timeline! Following with interest.

Two minor questions:

1 - As a lifelong Chicagoan is it safe to assume the Fire of 1871 and all its aftereffects are butterflied away?
2 - Speaking of the fire...What is Phillip Sheridan up to?

Keep up the great work!
 
Great timeline! Following with interest.

Two minor questions:

1 - As a lifelong Chicagoan is it safe to assume the Fire of 1871 and all its aftereffects are butterflied away?
2 - Speaking of the fire...What is Phillip Sheridan up to?

Keep up the great work!

That's a great question actually! I had noted down the Great Fire of 1871 as an event to cover but then I was trying to get to May of 1872 by Cinco de Mayo and must have skipped it. I'd say that if things aren't specifically skipped or noted as a butterfly they probably happened similarly. I don't believe in weather butterflies personally (other than storm surge strength due to anthropomorphic climate change) so the drought conditions of October '71 would probably not go away.

I'm not sure what Phillip Sheridan is up to! Probably at war with Natives. Many Union generals would likely not have the notoriety of OTL seeing as the war ended in 1862. William T. Sherman for starters would be a much more obscure figure

Thank you so much for reading!!
 
The Cathedral of Learning: University in the United States
"...and so the history of Vanderbilt University on Staten Island, today one of the United States' most prestigious private research institutions, traced its history to that single endowment of $1,000,000 made by the railroad magnate in 1872, in honor of his mother...[1]"

- The Cathedral of Learning: University in the United States

[1] This is actually where Vanderbilt wanted to place the university originally before gifting the money to a small Methodist school in Nashville to help heal postbellum sectional disputes

(Totally random butterfly I know but I read about it today and have been brainstorming my next updates)
 
The Giant of Kentucky: John C. Breckinridge and the Dawn of the Confederate States
"...it was not until late in the evening on July 3rd that news arrived in Richmond that President Forrest had died, thanks to the difficulties of communication between the mainland and the Cuban Expeditionary Force. In the early hours of July 4th, in what he called a "strangely auspicious date steeped in cold irony," John C. Breckinridge took the oath of office from Justice Joseph E. Brown, a Forrest appointee who had previously served as Attorney General, and thus became the third President of the Confederate States. "God help me and the Confederate States," he was said to have muttered to one of the witnesses, and then organized his first Cabinet meeting of his short Presidency despite it being a holiday (Secretary of State Harris, who at this point had been facetiously called the "co-President" by some in Richmond, was at a Klan cookout [1] in Tennessee and would not learn of Forrest's death until the 5th). Having run for the Presidency of the United States in 1860 and served quietly as a loyal Vice President after a distinguished career in the military during the war, the man who was once hailed as the "essence of Kentucky chivalry" and praised by friend and rival alike for his eloquence, kindness and integrity, had ascended to the highest office available in his country.

The great outpouring of grief over the death of the Wizard of the Saddle while on campaign in Cuba made it difficult for Breckinridge to pursue his preferred policy course, which was an immediate withdrawal of the CEF from Cuba and securing peace terms with Spain. Having previously pushed for a position of fighting for Cuban independence and vassalizing the island within a sphere of influence rather than outright annexation, reports of disease tearing through the soldiers - now most prominently the late President - and horrified by reports of lynchings and crucifixions carried out by Spanish Governor Blas Villate's men and machete attacks perpetrated by the pseud-rebel-cum-vigilante forces of General Maximo Gomez, Breckinridge had soured on the campaign throughout the spring of 1872 and now favored cutting losses. In this, he was a lonely man - the Confederate Senate wanted to continue the war as a point of national pride, and the heavily Klan-influenced House elected in 1871 was even more fervent in pushing on with the fighting. Despairing of the difficulties of communicating with his field commanders across the vast distance to Cuba, and aware that Havana had still not fallen, Breckinridge finally resigned himself to the matter and after two weeks of caustic and angry debate in Richmond, turned over full command of all operations in Cuba and the seas to General Johnston of the CEF..."

-
The Giant of Kentucky: John C. Breckinridge and the Dawn of the Confederate States

[1] Verbiage was intentional, even if the exact context is different in ITTL
 
Tammany: The First Machine
"...just like four years earlier, the Democratic National Convention was held at Tammany Hall in New York. 1872 would mark the apogee of the machine, with Tweed [1] in his element, shaking hands, schmoozing delegations and with his eye definitively on the prize: influence in Washington. The split within the Republicans and the substantial House majority enjoyed by Democrats made the election a potential prize considerably more potent than that of 1864, when the country was still reeling from the national humiliation of Havana. This time, there was only an economic crisis overshadowing the event.

James Bayard of Delaware attempted to position himself as an elder statesman who could lead the nation through the crisis of the hostilities in the Caribbean and ran on a firm support for the gold standard and support for the Confederate position in Cuba. However, he was 73 years old and Delaware was considered a minor prize as far as electoral votes went. Thomas Hendricks, a former Senator of Indiana, emerged as the Midwestern candidate of choice, running on an immediate repeal of the Silver Purchase Act and Specie Resumption Act, going so far as to support a hyperinflationary soft money program, and also pushed for isolationism and a review of the Naval Act's provisions as part of a broader attack on the perceived corruption of the Chase administration. Hendricks and Bayard was considered the contest to watch, but both suffered one major flaw - in the tradition of "old time" campaigns, neither attended the convention. In attendance, however, was Governor John T. Hoffman [2] of New York - Tammany's candidate.

The former Mayor, now Governor, who had cracked down on Orangemen in the wake of the 1868 Twelfth of July actions, gave a long speech promising to end "the sectional and divisive debates of the last decade and look instead to the hour at hand." He declared his opposition to greenback money but signaled openness to silver dollars, a moderate position meant to appease both hard money supporters in New York and silver mining interests in the West. He also promised to stay out of foreign disputes and in a nod to the Midwestern wing, promised the "most transparent and meritorious program of appointments since the days of George Washington" [3], but considered the Naval Act a settled matter (Tweed, who was serving as his campaign manager at the convention, had a decisive interest in shipbuilding contracts that had just started to truly come into fruition during the runup to 1872). [4] Tweed and his lieutenants aggressively worked the floor; though Hoffman came third on the first three ballots, he surpassed Bayard on the fourth and Hendricks on the fifth. Hendricks, who learned days later in Indianapolis that he had been outworked on the convention floor, was outraged after having thought his nomination was a sure thing. His consolation was nomination a month later to be the candidate of the Democratic Party for Governor of Indiana.

With the nomination, Hoffman was positioned to face a literally divided Republican Party and if elected would be the youngest President to be inaugurated (45 by election day). Despite a push for Hendricks to be his running mate, Tweed aggressively moved against it and the convention instead settled on former Speaker of the House Samuel Cox of Ohio, a Midwesterner praised for his able mastery of the House, experience in Washington and reputation for integrity..."

-
Tammany: The First Machine

[1] This was indeed Tweed's hope. The 1868 Orange Riots being a bit of a different animal means his Catholic base hasn't turned on him... yet. (His exploits have gone unpublished in newspapers so far)
[2] Should note that IOTL Hoffman was no more corrupt or associated with Tammany Hall than any other candidate but that Tweed was meant to be his 1872 campaign manager. The revelations about the Tweed Ring in 1871 essentially ended Hoffman's planned 1872 run. Here, that doesn't happen, and he's easily the best candidate on paper (and yes, this does make three straight New York Governors on a Democratic ticket with Seymour in '64 and '68 and now Hoffman)
[3] Oh the irony of a Tammany Hall politician saying this ;)
[4] It's hard to say what Hoffman's OTL '72 platform would have been, but since there's no Reconstruction here it would probably have circled around the issues of the day
 
How the West Was Won: The Conquest and Settlement of the North American Frontier
"...the ten year mark of the Homestead Act came and went quietly but it is hard not to emphasize what a revolutionary law it was when passed under the Lincoln administration in 1862. Homesteading was lucrative to veterans of the US Army, many of whom in the 1860s served in the West learning about the land in what was then known as "Native clearances" (what we today would call ethnic cleansing if not outright genocide) [1], as well as immigrants who were lured to America by railroad companies (Union Pacific in particular) with promises of homesteads along the railroad routes [2], widowed women who could enjoy suffrage and enhanced property rights in several of the territories [3], and finally free blacks, many of whom had escaped from the Confederacy both during and after the war and were setting out to make a new life for themselves (it should be noted that the settlement of homesteads by black Americans was quietly encouraged both by federal and state policy; despite the abolition of slavery, even Republican governments east of the Mississippi preferred a stark segregation of the races).

It is indeed impossible to tell the story of the settlement of the West in the 1870s without mentioning the profound contributions of the Union's small black community. The US Army hired troops of veterans from the Colored Regiments of the War of Secession [4], the first peacetime black units in the nation's history, and dispatched them out to frontier outposts where they were typically put in charge of buffalo hunts and the most dangerous tasks in fighting the Natives. Tribes nicknamed these units "Buffalo Soldiers," a name whose etymology is still in dispute, and they often served as the most prominent and aggressive "clearance regiments" of them all. Colonel George Armstrong Custer [5], one of the most notorious cavalry officers active in the West during the Native Wars, remarked that he could swap out fifty of his men for five Buffalo Soldiers and still come out ahead.

For the Plains Natives, the decade after the Treaty of Havana was possibly the most disastrous since the early years of European settlement. The completion of the Union Pacific and Central Pacific Transcontinental Railroad, and the early stages of other northern railroad routes paused only thanks to the Great Depression, led to escalated conflicts with settlers and the federal troops. Treaties were broken and now lacking an Indian Territory to deport conquered tribes to, the US Army typically massacred the men and sent women and children eastwards to missions for "civilization," rarely allowing members of the same tribe to congregate together [6]. As the 19th century progressed, these "Indian schools" would be centers of abuse, disease, and even in some cases forced labor that plainly violated not just the spirit but the letter of the 13th Amendment that had banned slavery. The most prominent conflict, of course, would spring up shortly after the summer 1872 expedition led by the notorious Custer probed the Black Hills of the Dakota Territory, within the lands set aside only four years earlier for exclusive use by the Sioux [7]…"


- How the West Was Won: The Conquest and Settlement of the North American Frontier (Howard Zinn)[8]

[1] An AH trope that pops up a lot in CS victory TLs that I actually think is pretty accurate is that the USA would have been considerably more brutal in its dealings with the Plains Natives
[2] Genuine OTL practice railroad firms used to help settle the West. Homesteading was packaged to immigrants in Europe including their transport from Germany or Scandinavia (they didn't exactly market it to "those people" in the Mediterranean or Eastern Europe)
[3] Wyoming and Utah by this point IOTL allowed women's suffrage
[4] Much like OTL, plus this gives escaped slaves a good way to get into the good graces of their new countrymen. If anything, I'd expect Buffalo Soldiers to be even more common as they want to leave the fairly poor situations many blacks would have in Eastern states, as we've covered previously in this TL
[5] Can't have a TL set in the 1870s without him showing up
[6] Direct result of not having a huge open Indian Territory to deport Natives to. Reservations would still exist of course but I found this as being potentially in line with the more brutal ethnic cleansing campaign sponsored by Washington ITTL
[7] The US Army not being distracted by Reconstruction allows it to focus its energies westwards earlier and so butterflies trigger an earlier Custer Expedition to the Black Hills
[8] Part of the fun in this project is using historiography to use various authorial voices for different excerpts
 
"...news of the death of President Forrest was celebrated openly in Madrid, where even the typically reserved King Leopold was said to have cracked a broad grin during the briefing where he received the report. To lose not only their most talented field commander but indeed the leader of their nation at the same time, on foreign campaign, was a devastating blow to the Confederates, and it was also a devastating blow to the "Quit Cuba" movement still led by Prime Minister Prim. Indeed, one can tie the waning political fortunes of the "Father of the Spanish Democracy" to the death of Nathan B. Forrest in that tent ten miles from Havana as a direct cause-and-effect relationship. The war faction of the Democratic Liberals were instead revitalized, and Francisco Serrano empowered both at home and abroad. Spies in Cuba were also feeding information to the Cortes that the Republic at Arms was divided against itself, with the Maceo-Gomez faction more or less united around focusing on driving out the Confederates first whereas Agramonte and Cespedes were still at each other's throats, trying to outmaneuver one another within the Assembly that moved between Santiago, Holguin and Camaguey, wherever it could avoid capture from Governor Villate's encroaching forces. Leopold was confident enough that he ordered two major operations be conducted in the Caribbean, despite hurricane season rapidly approaching: a landing of Spanish soldiers at Matanzas to buttress Havana and engage the flanking army commanded by Jubal Early, and to finally use the Spanish Navy to blockade Confederate east coast ports and seek out a decisive battle that would eliminate Dixie's ability to resupply their three main troop grounds in the west of the island. Despite skepticism from some Naval commanders, Leopold and Serrano urged for the operations to move forward, and they were fortunate - divinely fortunate, perhaps- that the 1872 hurricane season was very quiet [1]…"

- The German on the Spanish Throne: The Reign of Leopold I

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1872_Atlantic_hurricane_season
 
Dixie Imperialism: A History of Confederate Diplomacy, Intrigue and Intervention in the Caribbean
"...not helping matters was infighting among senior Confederate commanders. Johnston was supportive of a wait-and-see approach, continuing to gradually isolate pickets of Spanish and Cuban resistance and continuing to train a native force to fight alongside the dwindling CEF, which despite each Corps receiving a fresh 5,000 men in early July was still feeling the effects of the hot, disease-ridden Cuban summer. Jubal Early, for his part, was tired of his companies suffering gruesome ambushes as they attempted to fortify a flank that stretched perilously from Cienfuegos - where Spanish regulars were aggressively targeting his men on the orders of Governor Villate and in some cases crucifying them - and his headquarters at Matanzas, where despite sympathies from the large sugar oligarchs there was nevertheless constant raids by local rebels under General Gomez who had ceased fighting the Spanish to instead turn their attention to the Confederates. Caught in the middle between Early's aggressiveness and Johnston's caution was Stephen D. Lee [1], who had taken over Forrest's Corps upon the President's death and was closest in proximity to Havana, with one of his scouting companies indeed having spotted the harbor in a skirmish with Spanish defenders before retreating. News arrived shortly thereafter from Richmond that settled the matter - Johnston and Lee were to attack Havana, with Johnston's corps to seize the twin fortresses of El Castillo del Morro and La Cabaña guarding the harbor on the eastern side of the inlet and Lee was to push the city's defender's as far as possible. The plan, as it were, that was drawn up by the War Department - without consulting the three leaders on the ground - was to secure the harbor's entrance so that the naval vessels Tennessee and Mississippi could sail into the harbor and begin shelling the city into surrender. Securing Havana, it was thought in the Breckinridge Cabinet, would be the quickest way to put the Spanish on the back heels, take a strategically critical harbor they could then rapidly reinforce, and would earn the Confederacy and the Salcedo Republic an important symbolic victory. The attack was ordered to begin in the first week of August, and the two screw sloops would watch at a distance for the cannon fire and smoke that would signal that the attack had begun. A small detachment of Confederate Marines would even be landed at Cojimar to assist once the battle began. Johnston nearly threw the telegram in his cookfire upon reading it, in an apocryphal retelling, and only Early - who, it should be noted, was still to command his thin defensive salient to the east of the theater of operations - expressed any enthusiasm about the plan. Nevertheless, the Expeditionary Force prepared for its major push to finally break the outer siege defenses of Havana and take the city.

But as the saying goes, even the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry..."


- Dixie Imperialism: A History of Confederate Diplomacy, Intrigue and Intervention in the Caribbean

[1] No relation to Robert E.
 
Maximilian of Mexico
"...the summer of 1872 thus marked the ten year mark of Maximilian's title and the five year (and halfway point) of his Plan Nacional, a program that had seen success in its repairs of Mexican finances and expansion of its railroad and mining industries while falling well short of its goals to establish a professional Spanish-style navy, German-style education system or European-style industrial economy. All these latter things would improve, though it would take considerably longer than the decade-long goal Maximilian had originally laid out that humid morning near Veracruz five years earlier.

For the Emperor, it also marked the halfway mark of his collaboration with First Minister Vidaurri. Though successors in the office would serve longer, and some would be arguably more powerful or influential, the Vidaurri era was important for the stability it brought - indeed, after the death of Diaz, the five years that followed were among the most peaceful, prosperous and politically stable in Mexican history - and its consolidation of the norms of Imperial government. Having abandoned plans to allow elections of departmental prefects - local caudillos both liberal and conservative in affect alike had angrily threatened to raise arms if their influence was reduced - Maximilian mostly shied away from electoral government. The Parliament of Mexico was, despite the Second Empire having some of the most liberal and universal suffrage laws in the world besides Brazil and the United States [1], in effect a toothless body that acted as an institutional rubber stamp for the Emperor's decrees. Cementing Maximilian's influence was the fact that he enjoyed the support of what was known as the "broad center," an amalgam of moderate liberals who supported his reforms and conservatives who appreciated that he had thrown out the hated Juarez and Lerdo Laws of the 1857 Constitution and that despite abolishing peonage he had made no efforts at substantial land reform or attacking the power of the Church outside of the establishment of the "
escuela del estado," or state school. Still, the abolition of peonage for the masses and new railroads - importantly, Guadalajara and Queretaro were by 1872 connected to Mexico City, and by 1874 Acapulco would be connected as well [2] - had in just a decade transformed Mexico from one of the New World's basket cases to an emerging minor power, leading even British Foreign Minister Lord Salisbury to comment "it is Mexico which has only begun to spread her wings in the West."

This continued growth of his empire's fortunes had nevertheless left Maximilian restless. The 1870s would remain a period of growth and stability, especially as the Great Depression lessened and American, French, British and for the first time German and Austrian investments poured in. The crises that would spring up with the caudillos would not emerge for another decade. Secure in rule and popular with both the masses and the elite for the first time, and with Carlota now mother to three young children in addition to their adoptive sons, Maximilian began to have bigger dreams of making Mexico an Austria of the New World, with influence over her neighbors and a seat at the table. "There will be congresses and conferences of great powers in the Americas one day, too," he remarked to Grand Marshal Miramon at a feast in Queretaro celebrating his reign. "The Mexican Eagle will sit at the head of the table at them, and help make the decisions." And the clearest place for Maximilian to begin to exercise his ambitions was in the neighboring states of Central America, long unstable and the pawns of the Great Powers of the Old World, and perilously close to his crown jewel national project in the Tehuantepec Railroad..."

-
Maximilian Of Mexico

[1] Not if you're a woman obviously but that was the case everywhere
[2] The downside here of course is that this is creating a radial system out of Mexico City, which was/is one of the weaknesses of the French rail system so heavily based on getting people to and from Paris, but would align with the needs of Mexico at the time and Maximilian's vision of a centralist Mexico with a strong central government.
 
I am very glad to see that Max's plan is succeding, albeit at a slower pace than projected. But still, it is an improvement compared to OTL. However, trouble seems to be brewing in the horizon with the caudillos and I'm not sure how Great Britain and USA feel if Mexico starts throwing its weight around Central America.
 
The Cuban War
"...Confederate designs on a major, decisive victory against the Spanish at Havana was thrown into flux just as Johnston, who had effectively assumed command of the entire expedition (to the chagrin of Early), made the command to launch the first attacks on the Fifth of August, a Monday. His troops would force their way forward against El Morro and La Cabana, looking to secure the eastern and northern shores of Havana Harbor before settling into what would surely be a longer siege of the twin fortresses than his superiors in Richmond expected. Lee's men would attack from the west, and Early was to secure the major roads at Colon, Cienfuegos and Matanzas to make sure there would be no major movements of either Spanish or rebel troops from the east. Most importantly, Lee would enjoy Cuban irregulars tied to Salcedo as a reinforcement as he approached Havana proper, lending credence to the fact that the Confederacy was there to support a "legitimate" government that only it recognized.

The old saying goes, though, that the other side gets a vote too, and in this case that vote was with the Spanish Navy launching - with its Atlantic Squadron having sailed out of Cadiz and then resupplying in Tenerife before steaming across the Atlantic at such an aggressive pace that it threatened to deplete its coal supplies - an ambitious preemptive attack on the Confederate mainland. Having avoided a formal declaration of war in the early months of the gradual Confederate encroachment on Havana, instead supporting a "de facto" war state, the Spanish minister to Richmond informed President Breckinridge and Secretary of State Harris in the evening of Friday, the Second of August, that Spain now was in a state of war with the Confederacy until the CEF withdrew entirely from Cuba and recognition of the Salcedo Government was annulled. Breckinridge was harried by Harris into refusing that ultimatum over dinner and a Cabinet meeting the next morning, the first Saturday Cabinet meeting since the War of Independence.

That same Saturday, in a moment of opportune and unplanned timing, the Spanish Atlantic Squadron struck her three targets. Protected only by green-water harbor defense ironclads, the sloops of war struck Jacksonville, Savannah and Charleston throughout the afternoon, shelling the coastal defenses (including Fort Sumter in Charleston Harbor) and quickly sinking the ambushed ironclads that puttered out of the harbors to meet them. It was a particularly devastating attack at Savannah, where the ships sailed up the river to draw out the coastal defenders, retreated towards the mouth of the river, and then managed to sink the ironclads in a way that blocked the river temporarily to any pursuers who might sail out. In Jacksonville, the damage itself was relatively muted from the artillery bombardment - the sloops themselves avoided sailing into the mouth of the St Johns, waiting instead for the three ironclads posted there to emerge so they could be destroyed - but the Spanish Naval Marines landed instead to the south at St. Augustine, seizing the old colonial capital briefly, mockingly raising the Spanish flag over its buildings as shocked townsfolk fled after a brief skirmish, and then proceeding to destroy the Florida East Coast Railroad's (unfinished towards its objective of Biscayne Bay even at this point, of course) yards near the city and cutting telegraph wires. Though the damage was fairly minimal and repaired within a few weeks, it was an important symbolic victory for Spain. The attacks over with once the Marines retreated overnight back onto their tender to return to their vessels, the Atlantic Squadron retreated by Sunday morning and regrouped to steam south - not to Cuba, but to Key West.

The CEF was wholly unaware that the August Third Raids [1] had occurred or that the Caribbean Fleet of the Spanish Navy was headed for Havana simultaneously from their ports in Samana Bay and San Juan. And so the Battle of Havana began on August Fifth, 1872, with the push towards El Morro. Fighting began in Cojimar, where Johnston's men lost nearly two hundred dead and wounded in the first hours of fighting against merely half that for the outnumbered Spanish defenders, who pulled back as the Confederate Marines made a landing at a beachhead a quarter mile to their left flank. Johnston thought the battle was proceeding smoothly, especially as the half-mile past Cojimar was effectively empty. On the other side of Havana Harbor, Lee's men came within a mile of the water and the city, only to find the same rude surprise Johnston discovered immediately before the El Morro/Cabana complex - a vast series of trenches and earthworks, with reinforced artillery, separating the advancing infantry from their targets.

Of the coast of Havana, slowly coming closer to shore as cannonfire echoed across the water and smoke rose on the horizon, the lookouts of the
Mississippi and Tennessee noticed other shapes approaching from the east, rapidly encroaching upon them, just as they pulled into shell the forts on either side [2] of the mouth of the harbor to force their way in..."

- The Cuban War

[1] All ears to anyone who has a better name for this
[2] The Castillo de San Salvador de la Punta is on the western side of the harbor's entrance, next to what would have been the entire city of Havana in the 1870s. The chains running between it and El Morro were the main harbor defense. Why do I bring this up? Oh, no reason...
 
I am very glad to see that Max's plan is succeding, albeit at a slower pace than projected. But still, it is an improvement compared to OTL. However, trouble seems to be brewing in the horizon with the caudillos and I'm not sure how Great Britain and USA feel if Mexico starts throwing its weight around Central America.

I definitely think it's a more realistic approach; Mexico's problems haven't gone away just because he's Emperor, but he's seen some successes and some things haven't gone as planned, which is how things often work out in the real world.

Plus I just can't imagine caudillo politics of the Mexican style would go away just because of a more stable Empire, and the centralism vs regionalism split so prominent in Mexican history will be the defining issue in Mexico coming up here soon rather than the liberal-conservative split that brought Max to power, especially since both sides of that split have been modestly satisfied with his reign on many of their priorities.
 
"...I dunno if a Confederate "victory" in Cuba is totally ASB. Mainly, though, that's because I don't have a sense of how you're defining victory, and that's no knock on you because contemporary CSA leaders couldn't do it and 150 years worth of military historians, Lost Causers and armchair generals haven't been able to either. Cuba in 1872 was complicated, between the Spanish government alternating between slowly wiping out rebel communities and offering amnesty, the rebels in the East (the Republic at Arms that is) being split on the endgame of unilateral liberty-or-death independence or taking pretty much 75% of a loaf that Madrid offered them, and then the Salcedo "government" that was basically just a stalking horse for Confederate ambitions and a bunch of idiot sons of sugar barons and local villagers impressed to the cause cosplaying as a genuine threat to the Spanish. Simply put, had Forrest not landed in Feb of 72 then the Salcedo "regime" probably doesn't survive more than few months after Blas Villate decides to go to town on them.

But let's actually review how a Confederate victory could have worked. 60k men is probably sufficient, actually, considering how spread out across the island the Spanish were and what a mortal blow losing Havana Harbor would have been to Madrid. It would have required a better long-term plan than what the Dixies actually drew up, probably dependent on actually completing rail connections to southern Florida, reinforcing Key West better than they did (though calling it Gibraltar of the Caribbean would have been laughable even with better infrastructure than what they had when the Atlantic Squadron levelled it and sank most of the CS Navy in the Battle of Key West), and an immediate push on Havana. Forrest during the WSI actually was a pretty aggressive cavalry commander to his credit and his exploits in Mexico show that he had a knack for tactics, even the more ruthless kind. And 60k in an amphibious landing thousands of miles from home, in three sparse blocks across vast and difficult terrain, and linking up two of those corps south of Havana and essentially isolating the Spanish capital in a matter of weeks is... actually kind of impressive. That's always been my view on the Confederate intervention in Cuba, that strategically and logistically it was an impressive operation, despite the debacle taking Cienfuegos, but then for reasons that have always escaped me the decision to not press the advantage and take Havana while the Spanish were completely caught off guard, despite the substantial losses that would have incurred, and instead turn the intervention into Nathan's Great Cuban Camping Adventure, won out. Had Forrest marched on Havana in March of early April, instead of waiting for a fourth of his men to die of yellow fever until he caught it himself while creeping closer one mile at a time and trying to train a small guerilla force of Salcedo men at the same time... well, we might be talking about how one of the stars on the Southern Cross flag represents Cuba today.

For the sake of argument, though, say that Forrest doesn't have his great and fatal brain fart in March and actually moves as aggressively as his previous record as a war commander suggests he would. What then? The four fortresses that guard Havana aren't going away and the CEF's artillery component was minimal. You'd still have the wall of grapeshot and cannonfire that Johnston and Lee cheerfully hurled their men into IOTL, and though they'd have better numbers you're still short the full force since you've got Early screwing around holding an eastern flank and letting his men be literally crucified or hacked to death. Now you've got a crippled CEF holding Havana and installing as head of an "independent" Cuba a man with zero popular support outside of a small segment of the sugar oligarchy (a majority of the west Cuban establishment supported staying in Spain if their non-chattel privileges were preserved or had already emigrated to the Confederacy after slavery abolished). Though it might break Spain's ability to recapture the island, you haven't actually ended the war. If anything, you've inflamed it. The threat of the Confederacy being able to reinforce a slave republic in Cuba hardens the Republic at Arms and probably means you don't have Gomez or the Maceos breaking off, and even Agramonte and Cespedes might bury the hatchet. So maybe you have Spain quit Cuba - losing Havana probably redounds to the benefit of Juan Prim back in Madrid, and Leo didn't really care about Cuba until Forrest croaked and he had an obvious advantage - but then you've still got a rebellion going and Spain probably starts to quietly fund the Republic at Arms to get back at the Confederacy, to say nothing of how much support Cespedes, who already had a lot of private sympathizers in the USA, would have gotten from the administration of Salmon "President Who Abolished Slavery" Chase. Or maybe they view a seizure of Havana as a blatant act of war and redouble their efforts. Who knows? Leo wanted legitimacy against the Carlists as well as the Isabelline Bourbons. Letting the CSA steal Cuba from under his nose is a great way to lose his throne. My point is, the CSA still has the ugly choice of a long war against the rebels in hostile territory where they are prone to yellow fever, their supply chain logistically isn't going to be what it needs to be (though it could have improved considerably), the Richmond establishment was famously lazy and impatient with field commanders as Davis' inability to play nice with his generals in the WSI shows (seriously how the hell did the CSA break away successfully with that moron in charge?), and the likeliest outcome is still Spain declaring war and shelling their most prominent ports and sinking the Navy that John Luke Porter had so carefully built.

Like I said. I don't think it's ASB, taking Havana early and decisively probably causes some drastic butterflies (not least Forrest, bloodthirsty moron he was, finishing his term as President instead of Breckinridge), but I think it's hard to square a peace settlement that contains Cuba as a Confederate state based on the realities of 1872."

-
Post by user CubaJoe, May 16 2020, on alternatehistory.en thread "ACH: Make CSA Successfully Add Cuba as a State"
 
Great Battles of History: The 19th Century
"...and the maws of hell opened up,' concludes the diary of Stephen Lee, who took prodigious notes regarding the debacle that was the Siege of Havana. As his II Corps advanced on the Castillo de Principe immediately west of Havana, the earthworks and defenses before the castle and city erupted with gunfire and light artillery. His men surged forward towards the trenches but were mowed down, and eventually had to pull back and dig their own defensive trench frantically throughout the evening and early night, the black sky lit up by fire and smoke. They would not move another hundred feet for the rest of August, when the Confederate Expeditionary Force finally surrendered. On the other side of the harbor, it was even worse - Johnston, against his better instincts but worried about being accused of cowardice by the naval commanders observing from the Tennessee offshore and, more importantly, the nakedly ambitious Jubal Early only twenty miles away coordinating the defensive salient on the east with movements to besiege the city, ordered three marches of his men forward, with cannonades from the naval vessels as cover, to try to seize Morro Castle and La Cabana. All three failed, each one bloodier than the one before. August 5th, 1872 was the bloodiest day in the military history of the Confederacy up to that point, with nearly 2,000 men killed and close to 7,000 wounded - nearly a quarter of CEF forces in the vicinity of Havana. Only the second charge came close, with men being shot off the Morro walls as they attempted to climb.

The disaster did not truly metastize for the Confederates, who were barely outnumbered by the city's Spanish and Cuban loyalist defenders (though most city residents were armed thanks to resupply during the spring months and had been trained carefully to resist any attempted occupation), until the naval engagement began. The two sloops of war had pulled close enough in to the harbor mouth to begin shelling the fortresses guarding the entrance in an attempt to provide cover for Johnston's men. It was at that point, in the late afternoon, during the second charge commanded for the I Corps, that the Caribbean Squadron showed up at Havana. Four Spanish ships, all more modern and with more experienced crews. The
Mississippi went out to meet them as the Tennessee continued her mission of pulling closer and hammering El Morro and San Salvador de la Punta. The Mississippi was sunk with all hands within minutes, barely scratching the Spanish ships, and the Tennessee suffered grievous damage from the defenders, to the point that men began abandoning the ship to swim ashore. The ship drifted into the tangle of defensive chains pulled taut between the two harbor fortifications, catching in them and listing. At that moment, shortly after six o' clock in the evening, a stray cannon shell from El Morro punched a hole through the Tennessee's unplated hull, struck the powder magazine, and set off the ship like a giant bomb, obliterating it and much of the defensive chain. What little was left of the Tennessee's destroyed hull lodged in the narrow passage and made entering Havana Harbor very difficult for three months until the wreckage was successfully cleared. The explosion killed everyone still onboard the ship who had not bailed out earlier - counting damage to the ship in the early battle before the explosion, 87 of the vessel's 145 crew went up. Those captured would be held as prisoners at San Salvador de la Punta for the remainder of the war, where they described brutal tortures, though none were executed.

The morning of August 6th saw a disastrous state of affairs for the Confederates, who could hear on the early dawn wind jubilations in Spanish, see the Spanish tricolor waving triumphantly over the fortifications they had been unable to take, and shouts of "Viva España!" and "Victoria o muerte!" echoed throughout the day. General Johnston had heard and felt the shockwave of the exploding Tennessee and had watched in stunned disbelief as the Mississippi was rapidly sunk after trying to take on four ships at once. Suddenly, his men needed to prepare for a long siege, one where the foe could resupply Havana at will with troops and supplies, and ships from Dixie to resupply his soldiers suddenly had four vessels, the ironclad Vitoria first among them, to contend with as potential interceptors on the Florida Straights..."

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Great Battles of History: The 19th Century
 
The Cuban War
"...the losses suffered at Key West on August 11th, 1872, remains the second-worst loss in Confederate naval history, second only to Port Royal Sound (or Hilton Head, if you prefer) four decades later [1]. The attack by the Spanish Atlantic Squadron in the early morning, catching the island's defenders completely off guard as dawn broke over the Florida Keys on a beautiful, still Sunday, is still remembered ruefully at the Naval Academy in Norfolk. The town of Key West was nearly entirely leveled by the Spanish attack fleet, and the defensive boats were sunk in quick succession. The harbor defense fortress of Fort Zachary Taylor, held up as a "Gibraltar of the Caribbean" by President Forrest only months earlier, was hammered throughout the morning until the weight of the Confederate Navy appeared on the horizon to engage. Though two Spanish ships were sunk, one taking all hands with it, the Confederate vessels - led by the flagship Alabama - were all taken out, some sinking into the sea and the Texas beaching aground at the severely damaged fort. The sinking of the fleet just off the island led to the white flag being raised and the island being taken by a small contingent of Spanish Marines who raised the Spanish tricolor over the remains of Fort Taylor. Damaged Spanish vessels were sailed triumphantly into the docks as terrified townsfolk fled into the keys on fishing boats. The harbor was reinforced by ships from the Caribbean Squadron but a day later, with more Marines dropped off to resupply and hold Fort Taylor. Having already temporarily damaged the Confederacy's power projection capabilities by raiding the port facilities of Jacksonville, Savannah and Charleston as a bloody nose, now Spain had gone for the more severe wound - cutting off the seagoing connection between the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the Confederacy and effectively securing strategic control of the Florida Straits, making resupply of the CEF virtually impossible in tandem with their command of Havana Harbor..."

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The Cuban War

[1] Bit of a flashforward
 
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